29 may 2014 - 金道贵金属论坛 罗杰斯称把握中国投资机会 做黄金投资 |
| 29 may 2014 - 金道贵金属论坛 罗杰斯称把握中国投资机会 做黄金投资 Posted: 29 May 2014 03:40 AM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-05-28/165205621.html 2014-05-28 10:43:32 来源：和讯 不久前，世界金融大鳄、国际著名投资家、金融学教授吉姆•罗杰斯做客由香港金道贵金属主办的"财富论道"大师论坛，分享他对环球经济形势与市场投资机会的判断与分析。在谈到关于中国和黄金的话题时，罗杰斯表示，中国有许多机会，黄金也有许多的机会。要把握住这些投资机会。 在中国投资、说中国话 吉姆•罗杰斯曾在许多重要场合表示，他非常喜欢中国，非常看好中国，他甚至离开纽约，把纽约的房子卖了，在2007年的时候就搬到亚洲。 1999年开始，罗杰斯就一直在中国投资，之后他再没有卖过任何与中国相关的投资，在香港金道"财富论道"大师论坛现场，吉姆•罗杰斯甚至表态，如果谁要卖人民币，他就来买谁的人民币。 "我的两个女儿，没有在说丹麦语，没有说葡萄牙语，更不会说印度尼西亚话，她们在说中文。"吉姆•罗杰斯说。为了表达自己对中国的看好，在香港金道贵金属"财富论道"大师论坛现场，他甚至专门播放女儿说中国话，唱中国歌的视频，吉姆•罗杰斯女儿的标准普通话赢来现场阵阵掌声。 中国有许多投资的机会 十八届三中全会强调了市场的决定性作用，吉姆•罗杰斯在论坛反复强调这一点。"我觉得这个是非常令人振奋的，我也是百分之百赞同，我认为这个是最好的解决问题的办法。" 而对于适合投资的领域，吉姆•罗杰斯表示，中国在农业、金融、环保、医改等很多领域都将会有大发展，他希望投资者多研究，多观察，这样才会找到正确的投资方向。比如，中国要改善医疗，所以他自己也开始考虑投资医疗领域；中国要改善中国的铁路，所以他也做了小额铁路供应公司的投资；中国政府说我们要开放金融领域，所以他也开始在中国金融领域进行了一些投资。 吉姆•罗杰斯对全世界的农业发展持乐观态度。因为中国政府要努力想方设法帮助农民和帮助农村，农民将会变着非常富裕，而拥有农产品(000061,股吧)的人会发展的很好。此外，罗杰斯还指出，目前中国政府已经意识到了环境污染及医疗改革的问题，大家都在想法设法把空气变着更干净，希望更加健康更加长寿，所以这方面的公司也是值得关注的。 黄金有许多投资机会 在香港金道贵金属"财富论道"大师论坛现场，吉姆罗杰斯特别提到了贵金属投资。他特意从口袋里拿出一块金子展示，并提到："我一直投资金和银，因为从历史来看，上百年来保护自己的方法就是拥有贵金属，之前的40多年我购买很多贵金属，还没有卖过。我认为在未来的一、两年我可能会增加贵金属的买入，因为贵金属价格肯定还会增加。" 对于国际金价的大起大落，吉姆•罗杰斯说到，"我是持有黄金的，我现在还没有买更多的黄金，但是在未来的一、两年我会增加黄金的持有，我现在是持有美元的，不是因为我对美国有信心，是我预计到有更多的波动，所以我现在拥有黄金，拥有美元，我希望将来有机会让我购买更多的黄金，我现在肯定不会卖掉黄金的。" 对当初成功预测黄金跌到1200美元，吉姆•罗杰斯回答："我说那个话的时候黄金是1900，黄金持续12年上涨，这是不同寻常的，任何商品持续12年上涨没有波动是不正常的，我说1200，只不过是举了一个35%-40%的这种下跌的例子，这是比较正常的，也没有特别之处。" |
| 29 May 2014 - The case for buying gold is perfectly reasonable Posted: 29 May 2014 03:38 AM PDT JEFF REEVES'S May 28, 2014, 2:27 p.m. EDT After peaking at around $1,900 an ounce in 2011, the precious metal lost about 35% of its value until bottoming around $1,200 at the start of 2014. Since January, gold has crept up steadily and is sitting on a 6% gain, double the return of the S&P 500 Index in the same period. So what's going on with gold? Is this just a dead-cat bounce, or the beginning of a rally that could bring real profits to traders? I think it may be the latter — because there are signs of a bottom in sentiment, because of global uncertainty fueling a "risk premium," and because of a lack of enthusiasm regarding the alternatives. Click to Play Hulbert: Gold still sliding to a new low For the record, I am no Peter Schiff here with delusions of gold hitting $5,000 as the stock market implodes and inflation runs wild. Rather, I think a swing trade chasing 10% to 15% upside — with a $1,470 target at the very high end — is reasonable, even if gold could very well finish the year right where it started. Here's why I'm watching gold: Sentiment couldn't be worse There are no shortage of bears out there on gold prices. In fact, just two months ago Goldman Sachs GS -0.02% warned that this little rally is a head fake and gold would finish the year at $1,050. Also, renowned commodities trader Jim Rogers warned last year gold could fall to as low as $900 an ounce before it truly bottoms. Here's the thing, though: At the beginning of 2013, the "smart money" at Goldman initially predicted a $1,600 target on gold prices by year's end, which it kept revising lower and lower over time, as it became clear how wrong that prediction was. So let's not read too much into "expert" predictions. Just as we've seen so many times with equity analysts , price targets are often not worth the paper they are printed on. What is worth noting, however, is the glut of negativity regarding gold prices. The sustained three-year downtrend has spooked investors and the cascading redemptions out of bullion-backed ETFs like the SPDR Gold Trust GLD -0.50% . And beyond that, the vocal minority of conspiracy theorists who insist gold prices have long been manipulated mean many upside targets for gold are greeted with eye rolls and comments about tinfoil hats instead of an honest look. As the saying goes, the time to buy is when blood is in the streets — and after a beating like this and such derision for investors, it is hard to imagine how the sentiment on gold could get much worse. A sweetener is that behind the scenes, technical analysts are starting to point to the potential of a swing in sentiment on commodities writ large, and gold in particular. Charts over the past few months have shown a " double bottom " in gold, and hint at bullish consolidation right now as a pause before another leg up. Sure, the relief rally of the past few months could be a fake-out. But if you're a swing trader looking for a contrarian call, don't overlook the potential of gold right now. Because if we see just a little more strength in the precious metal, we could see a virtuous cycle of buying pressure that builds momentum considerably across the summer months. Gold and the "risk premium" A wild card that could continue to lift gold is the unfortunate persistence of unrest in many corners of the globe. Pro-Russia separatists continue to clash violently with Ukrainian forces. Syria is still a hot mess more than three years after the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011. The U.S. is saber-rattling about Islamic extremists that kidnapped schoolgirls in Nigeria. Meanwhile, a renegade general is making a power play in Libya, and Thailand is dealing with the fallout of a recent military coup. Oh yeah, and there are still suicide bombings in Iraq and Afghanistan in case you forgot about troubles there. This kind of environment, when many developing nations have unstable governments as Western nations are grappling with how best to avoid the damage, is when gold tends to shine best as a "safe haven" investment. When you can't trust the currencies of governments in flux and when it's not safe to invest in tumultuous emerging markets, gold is a logical place to stash cash — and given the fact that few of these geopolitical issues are near a resolution, the buying pressure for gold should persist for some time. |
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