The <b>Gold Price</b> Lost $17.60 by Comex Close at $1341.40 |
- The <b>Gold Price</b> Lost $17.60 by Comex Close at $1341.40
- <b>Gold Price</b> Analysis- March 19, 2014 - DailyForex.com
- Putin Sends <b>Gold Prices</b> Higher: Weekly Gold ETF Update
- Why Copper Could Be A Challenge To The <b>Gold Price</b> | Gold Silver <b>...</b>
| The <b>Gold Price</b> Lost $17.60 by Comex Close at $1341.40 Posted: 19 Mar 2014 04:49 PM PDT Gold Price Close Today : 1641.40 Change : -17.60 or -1.06% Silver Price Close Today : 20.800 Gold Silver Ratio Today : 78.913 Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01267 Platinum Price Close Today : 1451.20 Palladium Price Close Today : 768.65 S&P 500 : 1,860.77 Dow In GOLD$ : $204.30 Dow in GOLD oz : 9.883 Dow in SILVER oz : 779.91 Dow Industrial : 16,222.17 US Dollar Index : 80.150 The GOLD PRICE lost $17.60 (1.3%) by Comex close at $1,341.40, then lost another $10 in the aftermarket after the FOMC's eructations. Silver gainsaid the gold price by dropping only 3.6 (0.2%) to 2080, then dropped another 17 cents in the aftermarket to 2063c. I read several analysts, and had to laugh today that one of them was ruminating a BIG drop in gold and the other was chirping about what a bullish set-up had unfolded in gold and silver. Here's what the charts show: The GOLD PRICE has traded in the selfsame upward trading channel since its December low. Today's fall was the last of three days that have brought gold to touch the channel's bottom boundary. It also closed below its 20 DMA ($1,345). From here gold might (1) bounce off the lower channel boundary and resume its uptrend, or trade down to its 50 DMA ($1,295). The gold price is walking in some heavy boots here, my way of saying a lot of indicators point down. However, silver is gainsaying that weakness, and had a strong day, and that IS bullish. Lo, is the man batty? Nope, he ain't. The SILVER PRICE yesterday traded down to about 2065c, broke that level today and traded as low as 2052c (never quite touched 2050) about noon, then bounced up to 2097c, and fell off again to 2052. A double bottom, and down only 3.6 cents on the day. Trading at 2063 in the aftermarket. Of such days big surprise turnarounds are made. Of course, I might be just a fool spinning cobwebs in my brain, but silver did touch back to its 50 DMA today (2055c), a frequent target of corrections, and on the end of the day chart it closed unchanged. AND that 50 DMA happeneth to coincide, yea, to run atop of, the top boundary of silver's three month trading range, wherefrom it broke away stratosphereward in February. In plain English, silver broke out of that trading range, rallied to 2218c, and now hath fallen back to the breakout point for -- one final kiss good-bye, or to fall lower still? If you like to play guts ball, to take chances when you know the edge is on your side though the risk be great, then it's a ripe place to buy. I may be scalped tomorrow, but I bought this evening. I'm just a durned fool. I'd always rather trust metal in hand than central bank functionaries in Washington. I just don't care for liars much, and never could trust 'em. What if we all got it all wrong? What if the real business of the cosmos isn't work and sweat and tears but joy? What if CS Lewis was right when he said, "Joy is the serious business of heaven." What if joy is the serious business of our world, too, and of all creation? What if instead of the dreary round of self-improvement and economic purpose, the purpose of all creation is joy? Did y'all ever watch a dog? Ever notice how much a dog enjoys being a dog? Acts like a dog just for the fun of it? Ever notice that pigs dance? They do, especially when a storm is kicking up. And when somebody is playing, why do we say he's "horsing around"? What if our whole purpose is just to rejoice in being what we are? To play and write and dance and make music and sing just for the fun of it? To romp for joy in God. Wow. That'd put a lot of economists and politicians out of work, let alone do-gooders. FOMC press conference today demonstrated once more that famous stabilizing effect that central banks were created for. And as usual, the market's reaction followeth not logic. Predictably, the FOMC announced it would "taper" by buying only $55 billion in US treasuries and mortgage backed securities. Yet that was piddling to the announcement that the Fed was only kidding about keeping interest rates low until unemployment hit 6.5%. After all, so many people have given up on ever finding jobs now that 6.5% target is getting right easy to hit. Now the Fed has discovered previously unrecognized "scars" in the economy that won't heal for two more years. Thus the Great Healer, The Fed, must keep interest rates low and raise them only slowly. Rather perversely in the face of the FOMC's resolve to keep repressing the economy with low interest rates, markets interpreted the statement as immediately higher interest rates. Ten year treasury yield shot up 3.39% (bonds dropped) 20 2.772%, well above the 2.708% 20 day moving average, and above the 2.745% 50 DMA as well. -- this despite 15 of the Fed's 16 policy makers believe it will be inappropriate to raise rates this year. I am not a Fed policy maker but only a natural born durn fool from Tennessee, and I believe this is all hogwash, hoakum, and hype. They're lying as fast as their lips can move. They have to keep interest rates down below the inflation rate to inflate away the debt and to keep the US government's borrowing costs low. They've fallen into their own trap, and can't get out. All the rest is lies, and damn the economy, full speed ahead. They are harvesting you like a farmer harvests a herd of pigs, and think no more of you than he does a hanging side of pork. Leaving these disgusting my-honor-is-for-sale-cheap white trash behind, let's look at other markets. Stocks took the FOMC announcement hard, but why I can't guess. Everybody knew the Fed had telegraphed its tapering -- no news there. And if there were a real recovery, rising interest rates really wouldn't slow it down. Actually, rising rates usually accompany recoveries. Makes no sense, but markets have become schizophrenic information junkies, blown from side to side by the latest news without the slightest regard for the next 24 hours. Dow dropped 114.02 or 0.7%to 16,222.17. S&P500 rode the same sled, down 11.48 (0.61%) to 1,860.77. On the charts both indices bounced up to their short term downtrend line, hit it, and bounced down again. Momentum took a hit as the Dow closed below its 16,265.25 20 DMA and the S&P500 closed near its 20 DMA, 1858.43. Both indices are coiling up into a triangle which will break strongly one way or the other. Direction of least resistance is down. The repulsive US dollar index rose 62 basis points to 80.15, clean out of its falling wedge and above its 20 DMA (79.94), both bullish signs. MACD also turned up. The other two scrofulous fiat currencies are fairly mirror images of the dollar. Euro had broken out to the upside from a RISING wedge, above a long standing resistance line about $1.3900 and today fell nearly plumb through the wedge it had left behind. Closed $1.3828, down 0.75%. Yen jumped off a cliff, too, down 0.885 to 97.95 cents/Y100. Pointed itself firmly earthward. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.  | ||
| <b>Gold Price</b> Analysis- March 19, 2014 - DailyForex.com Posted: 19 Mar 2014 12:27 AM PDT
By: DailyForex.com Gold prices settled lower yesterday, extending losses to second straight session, as easing fears of a wider conflict stemming from Russia and Ukraine dented the previous metal's safe-haven appeal. The American dollar was also supported by better than expected U.S. housing data. The Commerce Department's report showed that building permits climbed 7.7% to a 1.02 million pace in February. In the meantime, the major stock markets are recovering and that is soaring the demand for disaster insurance. From a technical perspective, the weekly chart remains bearish as the pair trades below the Ichimoku cloud and because of that, I still think that there will be significant resistance levels ahead and breaking through these barriers will not be so easy. Although Monday's bearish engulfing pattern supports this theory, further confirmation is required to say that the trend is about to reverse. The Federal Open Market Committee concludes a two-day meeting today and until the announcement gold prices will probably continue to respect the ascending channel. That means the 1350 level where the top of the Ichimoku cloud (4-hour chart) and the bottom line of the channel reside will be supportive in the short term. If this level remains intact and the XAU/USD pair starts to climb, the first challenge will be waiting the bulls at the 1365 level. If the bulls manage to break and hold above 1365, then we could see a test of the 1376 resistance level. If prices drop below 1346, there is a strong possibility that the market will continue to retreat and head towards the 1333/0 area. A daily close below 1330 would shift things to the bears and increase speculative selling pressure. | ||
| Putin Sends <b>Gold Prices</b> Higher: Weekly Gold ETF Update Posted: 15 Mar 2014 06:31 PM PDT Gold prices continued to soar through the week, as the escalating situation in the Ukraine pushed gold higher, putting the squeeze on short-sellers, who Although gold prices had been expected to suffer from the tapering of the of the Federal Reserve's bond-buying program, the spot price of gold has risen 14.74 percent since January 1. The quantitative easing program is credited with pushing gold prices to record highs during 2011. The weakening of the dollar which resulted from quantitative easing had enhanced gold's status as a "safe haven". As a result, the phase-out of QE had been seen as a threat to gold prices. A review of the chart for gold's spot price demonstrates that when the price rose above $1,237 per ounce on January 3, it broke the neckline of December's bearish head-and-shoulders pattern on the chart. On February 18, the spot price rose as high as $1,332.40 per ounce, crossing above the neckline of the October 17 – November 11 head-and-shoulders pattern to break its curse and signal the likelihood of a further advance. After spending the first week of March a consolidation phase, gold prices surged with escalating tensions in the Ukraine. The chart below depicts the trading activity in the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD) during the past 180 days (Chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com). As with the spot price of gold, an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern formed on the GLD chart since January 24, signaling the likelihood of a further advance. Friday's close at $133.10 per share brought GLD 5.86 percent above its 200-day moving average (currently $125.73). GLD's Relative Strength Index climbed to 72.05 from last week's 61.36. Most investors consider a Relative Strength Index above 70 as an "overbought" signal. The MACD is rising above the signal line, suggesting that GLD could continue its advance during the immediate future. The following is a summary of how precious metal spot prices and ETFs performed from the close on Friday, March 7 until the close on Friday, March 14: Gold ETF Update:Gold Spot Price: $1,382.50/oz, +3.17% .Disclaimer: The content included herein is for educational and informational purposes only, and readers agree to Wall Street Sector Selector's Disclaimer, Terms of Use, and Privacy Policy before accessing or using this or any other publication by Wall Street Sector Selector or Ridgeline Media Group, LLC. | ||
| Why Copper Could Be A Challenge To The <b>Gold Price</b> | Gold Silver <b>...</b> Posted: 20 Mar 2014 02:41 PM PDT This is a guest post by Alhambra Partners. Go to the website for information on Alhambra Investment Partners' money management services and global portfolio approach to capital preservation. Gold has seen a healthy run since the first incidence of QE taper, again conforming to the idea that gold is tail risk insurance unrelated to inflation perceptions. That included a January rebuke to the collateral pressure/selloff pattern that we saw too much of in 2013. In the past few days, gold prices have come down a bit and that has coincided (somewhat) with another bout of forward rate incrementalism, bringing back the collateral pressure question. There is any number of possibilities here, including profit taking from speculators, that would offer a compelling explanation for the past few days' gold trading. However, it would be wrong, in my opinion, to simply ignore the recent change in GOFO. Since forward rates began rising nearly a month ago, any collateral relationship would appear to be far weaker than previously observed. With that in mind, I can't help but think that there is a spreading illiquidity that might tie gold to copper, and thus China. In some ways, if this is correct, it may have been inevitable given the dollar situation there (more on that in another post). You would have to believe that as dollar liquidity worsens, the more broadly dollar shorts would appeal to keep funding their positions, even if it meant rehypothecating gold claims or leasing gold itself. There is little doubt that a large quantity of physical metal has made its way eastward across the Pacific, so it may be, in theory, available for liquidity alternatives to copper and the PBOC. I think that is underscored more than in passing fashion by the slight backwardation in copper futures out to July. Such a short tenor of backwardation is the hallmark of collateral issues and liquidity strains. It is, unfortunately given the paucity of direct observation or even inference, a factor that bears closer scrutiny and further analysis before rendering any harder conclusions. With Chinese dollar shorts in clear dysfunction, there may be further gold spillover ahead, particularly as copper gets hammered. Will the safety bid under gold, evident since QE taper, be enough to offset some or all of this copper/China mess? |
were forced to cover their positions.
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