Gold Price Analysis- March 10, 2014 - DailyForex.com

Gold Price Analysis- March 10, 2014 - DailyForex.com
Gold Price Uncertainty, the Fix and the Quantum - The Market Oracle
Gold Model Calculates Gold Price Of $2400 To $2900 In 2017 | Gold ...
The Gold Price Keeps Rising Up $5.10 to $1346.50
Silver and Gold Prices: The Gold Price Lost 1 Percent or $13.60 ...

Posted: 09 Mar 2014 09:08 PM PDT

By: DailyForex.com

The XAU/USD pair closed Friday's session lower than opening but remained within the previous four days trading range. Gold prices rose 0.6% over the course of the week as investors turned to the relative safety of the precious metal. The pair traded as low as $1328.95 an ounce after data released by the Labor Department showed that the U.S. economy added 175K jobs in February and the unemployment rate increased to 6.7% from 6.6%.

Some economists were expecting gains of 150K. Recently fears over the growing threat of war between Russia and Ukraine have been driving this market's bullish activity and because of that gold can still be considered as a safe-haven in the coming weeks if the situation in the region gets worse. The fact that the bulls successfully defended the 1330 level and held prices inside the ascending channel (4-hour chart) even after an encouraging U.S. jobs report supports this theory.

However, there are other factors to pay attention. Absence of inflation, belief that the Federal Reserve will continue to reduce the pace its quantitative program and persistent uptrend in the U.S equities markets may sap gold's safe-haven appeal.

The 4-hour chart indicates the battle between the bulls and the bears intensified in the 1330 – 1355 area, so I think these will be the key levels to watch in the short-term. To put it another way, although the pair receives support from the Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour time frame, the market feels some pressure which is caused by the clouds on the weekly time frame. If the bears increase the downward pressure and drag gold prices below 1330, the pair may visit the 1320 support level.

Below that, the next challenge will be waiting the bears at 1307. If the bulls successfully push price above 1346, it is likely that we will see the XAU/USD pair testing the first strategic barrier at 1355. Once the bulls clear 1355, they will be aiming for 1361.76 and 1375.20.

Gold Price Uncertainty, the Fix and the Quantum - The Market Oracle

Posted: 11 Mar 2014 08:36 AM PDT

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014 Mar 11, 2014 - 10:36 AM GMT

By: Paul_Tustain

Does one of the great mysteries of the universe shed light on allegations surrounding the Gold Fix? Or is it the other way around?

When Werner Heisenberg looked at his brand new quantum formulae in 1927, he noticed something weird.

The world of very small spaces and particles is ruled by matrix mechanics, but as you may remember from your school mathematics, in matrix multiplication (A * B) * C is not the same as A * (B * C). What Heisenberg saw was that because of the difference in the two matrix products there would always be uncertainty as to key physical properties of a particle. His discovery forbids a particle from having both precisely defined motion and precisely defined position at the same time.

Spotting this earned Heisenberg a Nobel prize, and a lifetime of being widely misunderstood.

The rest of us have a very deep seated 'common-sense' view of spacetime and particles, and almost all of us reject the subtle complexity of the 'Uncertainty Principle'. Indeed I am prepared to bet that if you are here reading about it for the first time you are mentally rejecting it. "Of course", you will be thinking, "whether we can measure it or not, a particle obviously has a particular position and a particular speed."

Alas you would be wrong. But don't beat yourself up about it because you are in good company. Even Albert Einstein was on your side for a while.

In physics you can pin down individual quantities very precisely, but by knowing one quantity exactly you will automatically give the particle freedom to be uncertain in another. Woe betide any physicist who interpolates between observations to state as fact something he didn't specifically measure, because physical particles do not do predictable things when they are unmeasured; they appear to spend their unobserved lives weighing up the choices of where physics allows them to be found next, and then pressing the hyperspace button to get there whenever somebody looks.

If you took to examining particle paths between observations the best route map you could draw to describe the motion of an unmeasured particle would look something like this :-

Particle path image

The diagram shows how we located the particle precisely at point A, and again at point B. But in being so precise about its location at an instant of time we made its motion uncertain.

At time A, it might have been going up, or down, there is no answer. In making our precise measurement of position at instant A (and B) we actually denied the particle a definitive up/down motion. It's weird, but that is how particles work in spacetime - it really is.

Nevertheless a good physicist will be able to perform certain quantum calculations, and she will be able to give us a sense of where our particle might have been found, if we had looked. She will be able to calculate that if we were to set everything up the same way and make hundreds of additional measurements at Time T, then the particle would be found in the various ranges shown on the blue dotted line on the picture, with the various probabilities shown.

Even many physicists find it unsatisfactory that the most nature allows us to say about where the particle was when we weren't looking is basically "probably about here". But there it is. Without an observation there was no single explicit position at Time T, because the phenomenon of unmeasured position did not properly exist except in our own mental models. Unmeasured position is smoothed out into a fuzzy realm of possibilities.

The Gold Fix

The situation of a particle's motion and position bears a striking similarity to price. Let's have a look at another picture.

The Gold Fix

The blue dots are 'quotes' from a market. Someone from Bloomberg has tracked bankers' gold price quotes, each of which is here represented as a blue spot.

Bloomberg decided to be helpful to the rest of us, and they filled in the gaps between the points with a solid line. Then they sold it to us as a gold price chart - a track of the position of price, through time.

A few years ago, before derivatives were invented, the rest of us would have taken that plotted line with a pinch of salt. We always knew it was an approximation, and not a very good one either, because when we waited to see the price reporting at the end of the day we could see a whole load of real gold deals (here the green dots) obstinately refusing to position themselves on Bloomberg's line.

We did not care much, because none of us who worked in real markets ever thought for one moment that anyone would start to treat the lines interpolated by Bloomberg as something real. They were a useful visualisation - that was all.

It was only later, when financial engineers started building products that were valued by reference to that line, and when people started making profits, or losing, depending on where Bloomberg drew their line, that investors started attaching significantly more weight to the line itself than to the reality of the reported deal prices.

Is the gold price uncertain too?

Okay, so I am clearly drawing a parallel. Price charts and particle route maps are doing something quite similar. But let's take it a stage further. Let's try doing what Heisenberg did, and make the bold assertion that there is no price between the data points of trades, just a realm of possibilities.

The derivatives engineers, and even a few of the gold bugs are going to go nuts with this, but it stands up to some pretty detailed scrutiny.

For a start the price that gets printed by Bloomberg is without size. If the bullion banker were to be asked a real price, by a real trader, the banker's first question would be "what is the size?" He has to know if he is quoting for a $200 deal or a $200 million dollar deal, because the prices are completely different!

Is the gold price uncertain too?

This gives a third dimension to the price, one which any spot price chart always ignores. At any given point in time the price of anything is a function of the amount of it you want to buy or sell.

Unlike quantum particles this is not difficult concept to grasp. If I were a greengrocer, and you asked me for one banana, I'd probably charge you 20 pence. If you asked me for 10, I might give you a discount, and sell for £1.90 (19p each). If you asked me for 500 I might charge you a premium, because I'd have to get in the van and go and purchase a lot more bananas - so maybe £110 (22p each). But if you asked me for 1,000,000 there is no price. I don't want to sell you 1,000,000 bananas because I wouldn't know where to get them, and I certainly don't want to spend my week in the van hunting them down and paying ever larger prices for the diminishing stock! As you can see the price varies according to size.

Once you introduce this extra dimension to the price chart, so as to get the real feel for where the trading price is, the single line of Bloomberg starts to look like a gross over-simplification. Because not only is there uncertainty in the vertical momentum of the price between two measured points (trades) but also there is a completely different answer depending on the size.

So instead of a line progressing from last quote to next quote the reality is that there is a very large volume of three dimensional economic space between the points, and, with different probabilities, the next trading price could be any point within that volume.

All in all it seems to me that there is a very good case for saying that in the absence of a trade there is no such thing as price. Anyone who seeks to know a price without the hard experiment of executing a trade is deluding themselves into creating a phenomenon which does not really exist. Price is an attribute of a specific trade. It occurs meaningfully only at points in the economic continuum where an exchange happens, and it depends on the individual circumstances, reasons and emotional states of two experimenters (sorry, traders) who each foresee the price subsequently moving in opposite directions.

So price is not smoothly variable, but point-like, quantised, and a generator of uncertainty; and everything between real trades is probabilistic guesswork.

Is Gold fixed?

If I were to criticise the Gold Fix I would certainly concede that it is rather stupidly named. Also in the era of Chinese walls - rules which insist colleagues do not tell each other what their common clients are doing - there is something unusual in allowing bank principals to know their own internal customer order book.

However in my opinion this oddity is rather elegantly offset by the fact that the Gold Fix allows another bank principal to steal those orders simply by offering a better price during the auction. I believe this system is much more robust than Chinese walls, because it relies on natural competition rather than self-imposed discipline.

Also two other powerful points jump out for comment:

The Gold Fix is a real trading price. It is not a survey, like LIBOR, and it is not a chart of quotes, like the Bloomberg spot gold ticker. It is a price at which a very large number of buyers and sellers chose to deal, and this makes it real.
It was dealt in open competition in very large size, positively swamping the sizes of the individual bullion bank quotes on the Bloomberg ticker. As I explained above this size gives it a right to be different.

Besides, if the sellers thought they were getting a bad deal day after day wouldn't they simply deal on the spot market? Or on Comex? There is nothing stopping them because the Gold Fix publishes the auction prices while it is happening, and lets clients remove their orders during the process, so as to place them instead in alternative (if usually smaller) sources of liquidity.

Forgive me, but I don't really care much in any case. There remains quite a large number of people who are wedded to gold price conspiracy theories. Many of them buy paper gold (gold futures) and then grumble that sellers of paper gold exist. In my opinion they perfectly match each other's requirement!

Meanwhile not one person who has bought gold, to take delivery, has only got paper. All the sellers were able to deliver real gold. That makes a concerted price suppression story - through shorting - very difficult to swallow.

More interesting than the Gold Fix

But there is still unfinished business here, because the physics element of this story is far more interesting than the gold element. Could it be that a run-of-the-mill financial spat begins to show us a route to solving the central riddle of quantum physics? Now that really would be something.

Since quantum physics first arrived 87 years ago its application has been stupendously successful, but no-one has been able to explain its results in a way we can grasp and call 'reality'. Physicists remain stumped when it comes to describing the weird world they see through their simplest experiments.

In the absence of anything better we all fall back, a bit lazily, into the default human mental model of thinking of particles as being somewhere and moving somewhere smoothly, rather than in jerks from point to point. We have taken to thinking - much as conspiracy theorists do when they look at price charts - that unmeasured particles have real position and real motion, even when they are isolated from the rest of our universe and no-one is looking.

But this perfectly natural, common sense interpretation leaves science at an impasse. Our mental model and the experimental facts are in fundamental disagreement with each other about how stuff really is.

Physicists have been wringing their hands trying to solve this. They want to explain a reality under quantum physics in a way which does not make the act of measurement special. They want reality to be permanent, whether or not they are looking, and they have come up with some truly zany models ranging from 'there is no reality' to 'there are countless zillions of realities, and entire universes are created every nano-second to cope with all the quantum possibilities'. I am not kidding. These are both pretty standard models of quantum reality which physicists are clinging to.

Yet - and this is the amazing thing - through analysing price at the Gold Fix we can actually see a workable metaphor for quantum experiments, and that really excites me. It's as if the quantum world is an incredibly fast moving market, heaving with tiny trades, where each exchange produces an instant of perfect precision in some physical attribute or other, enabling the countless trillions of particle events in the observable universe to map themselves, with respect to each other, into the unambiguous history of our spacetime.

I have read lots of physics books, and not understood many of them, but by sitting in my office and thinking about gold prices I can for the first time start to see how something which appears to be deeply real and continuous is in fact point-like, and fuzzy between the points. I can explain, and in an understandable way to anyone who knows markets, that between one trade and the next price is undefined, uncertain and unreal. We don't know exactly where it is, or if it's moving up or down. All we can do is copy the quantum physicists and make probabilistic guesses until the next trade.

Is there something here the physicists could learn from us? After all, so many physics laboratories have lost their brightest research stars to the quant funds. Perhaps it's time the London bullion market offered the labs some of our Gold Fix dealers, on sabbatical, of course.

By Paul Tustain

BullionVault.com

Paul Tustain is the founder of BullionVault.com – with 13,000 customers and $600m in gold bars, now the world's largest store of privately-owned investment gold bullion.

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

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Gold Model Calculates Gold Price Of $2400 To $2900 In 2017 | Gold ...

Posted: 04 Mar 2014 02:24 PM PST

In this article, contributor Gary Christenson presents the results of his intense efforts to work out a model for the gold price. This "gold model" is not meant to predict short term gold prices, nor is it intended to act as a target price for investors. The aim of the gold model is to derive a "fair value" for gold in a longer term context, based on a fundamental basis. Such a fair value should act as an objective measure to calculate the deviation with gold's spot price.

As an example, the gold price crash of 2013 was said by mainstream media and financial pundits to bring the gold price back to "acceptable" levels as gold had been in a bubble. While it was true that the gold price was getting ahead of itself in 2011, it was nowhere near a bubble. The "gold model" from Gary Christenson confirms that the gold price was rising too fast, but it's fair value was nowhere near the levels of its 2013 bottom.

In that respect, it is interesting to note what several famous bankers have said about the gold price. Consider the following quotes. Paul Volcker once said "Gold is my enemy." Ben Bernanke recently said "Nodoby really understands gold prices and I don't pretend to understand them either." Janet Yellen her recent quote was "I don't think anybody has a very good model of what makes gold prices go up or down."

So here you have it, a gold model that has been 98% accurate in the past four decades, worked out by an individual who looked at the fundamentals and the big picture, in an unbiased way. Admittedly, we believe bias is the main issue for bankers.

Gold persistently rallied from 2001 to August 2011. Since then it has fallen rather hard – down nearly 40%. This begs the question: "Did the gold bull market end at the top in August 2011 as many mainstream analysts believe?" OR "Was the decline during the past 2.5 years merely a correction in the ongoing bull market?"

The answer, in my opinion, can be found in my gold pricing model that has accurately replicated AVERAGE gold prices after the noise of politics, news, high frequency trading, and day to day "management" have been purged.

I presented the specifics of my model at the Liberty Mastermind Symposium in Las Vegas on February 22, 2014. A detailed presentation would be much too long for this article so the following is a quick summary.

OBJECT:

Create a simple model of gold prices based on a few macro-economic variables, NOT including the price of gold.
Each variable must be intuitively sensible in its affect upon the price of gold.
The results must be graphically similar to actual prices for gold since 1971 and be statistically significant.

VARIABLES:

The most obvious macro-economic variable is the currency supply or some proxy for it. Since 1971 the U.S. currency supply has been increased much more rapidly than the underlying economy has grown. Hence the value (purchasing power) of each currency unit (dollars) decreased and prices, on average, have risen considerably.
Other variables that might be applicable are the CPI, Japanese Yen, real interest rates, dollar index, 30 year T-bond yields, DOW Index, copper prices, national debt, commodity prices, and many more.
A logical and causal relationship can be established between each of these variables and the value of gold based on either the declining value of the currency, or the changing demand for commodities and hard assets versus the demand for financial assets.

PROCESS:

My model was created, tested, and refined to include only three variables – simplicity makes the model more credible.
My model attempted to replicate the smoothed annual prices for gold. Smoothing filtered out most of the market noise and clarified what I refer to as an equilibrium or "fair" value for gold.
My model made NO attempt to predict actual weekly and monthly gold market prices.
Smoothing was accomplished by using monthly closing prices for gold since 1971, creating a centered 13 month moving average of those prices, averaging January to December monthly prices to create an annual price, and then making a 3 year moving average of those annual prices.
Smoothing examples: Actual market prices in 1980 went as high as $850 but the smoothed gold price for 1980 was about $460. Actual market prices in December 2013 went to an approximate low of $1,183 but the smoothed gold price for 2013 was about $1,520.

MODEL RESULTS:

The calculated Equilibrium Gold Price (EGP) had a correlation of 0.98 with the smoothed gold price from 1971 – 2013. Examine the graph of EGP and Smoothed Gold.
The model was both simple and robust. It worked effectively, on average, during gold bull and bear markets, stock bull and bear markets, blow-off tops and crashes, volatile oil prices, Y2K and 9-11, QE, Operation Twist, ZIRP, various hot and cold wars, occasional peace, gold leasing, gold manipulations, and high frequency trading distortions in many markets.
In August of 2011 gold was priced about 30% ABOVE the EGP.
In December of 2013 gold was priced about 26% BELOW the EGP.

GRAPH NOTES:

Smoothed gold prices are shown in a "gold" color.
Calculated equilibrium gold prices (EGP) are shown in green.
The long-term trend from 1971 – 1980 was up, from 1980 – 2001 the trend was down, and from 2001 to 2012 the trend was up. (Actual gold market high price was August 2011.)
Nixon closed the "gold window" in 1971, removed any semblance of gold backing for the dollar, and thereby enabled the creation of significantly more dollars into circulation. The various measures of "money" supply, official national debt, Dow Index, price of gold, many commodities, and most other prices increased exponentially between 1971 and 2013.

FUTURE PRICES FOR GOLD per the EGP Model

Assume:

Macro-economic variables continue to increase and decrease as they have for the past 42 years.
The U.S. economy continues along its typical, but weakened, path with government expenses growing more rapidly than revenues, as they have for decades. National debt rises inevitably.
Congress continues its multi-decade habit of borrowing and spending, talking about change, and changing little. The Fed supports the stock and bond markets and continues "liquidity injections" as it deems appropriate to benefit the 1%.
Monetary, political, and fiscal policies will NOT be materially different from what they have been during the past 42 years.
The U.S. will NOT be subjected to global nuclear war, Weimar hyperinflation, or an economic collapse, while we will continue to be subjected to the same Keynesian economic nonsense that has created many of our current "challenges."

Given the above assumptions, a reasonable projection for the EGP (a "fair" price for gold) in 2017 is $2,400 – $2,900. Remembering that market prices can spike significantly above or crash below the EGP for many months, we could see a spike high above $3,500 or $4,000 in 2017. Extraordinary events such as a global war or dollar melt-down could push prices higher and sooner.

I plan to publish the details of this model, including variables, graphs, analysis, and the calculation formula in a paperback book.

Until then you may find value in these articles:

Bill Holter                 Jim Sinclair in Austin, Texas
Eric Sprott                Do Western Central Banks Have Any Gold Left?
Gold Silver Worlds Jim Rickards: Target Gold Price
Casey Research     23 Reasons to Be Bullish on Gold
The DI                      Gold Investors: Take the Red Pill
Jim Sinclair              www.jsmineset.com

GE Christenson | The Deviant Investor

The Gold Price Keeps Rising Up $5.10 to $1346.50

Posted: 11 Mar 2014 04:24 PM PDT

Gold Price Close Today : 1346.50
Change : 5.10 or 0.38%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.784
Change : -0.095 or -0.46%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.785
Change : 0.539 or 0.84%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01544
Change : -0.000130 or -0.83%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1464.00
Change : -12.60 or -0.85%

Palladium Price Close Today : 770.30
Change : -6.35 or -0.82%

S&P 500 : 1,867.63
Change : -9.54 or -0.51%

Dow In GOLD$ : $251.03
Change : $ (1.99) or -0.79%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.143
Change : -0.096 or -0.79%

Dow in SILVER oz : 786.72
Change : 0.35 or 0.04%

Dow Industrial : 16,351.25
Change : -67.43 or -0.41%

US Dollar Index : 79.770
Change : 0.200 or 0.25%

I looked at the computer screen this morning and liked to puked in my wastebasket. Oh, no! Look at that GOLD PRICE, pushing on $1,345! I felt rotten because I've been telling y'all about the likelihood of a pullback that keeps refusing to happen, and I though, "Oh, great! I told 'em to hold off and that blasted gold price is going to blow through $1,360 like a mule headed for the barn."

Well, gold ended up $5.10 at $1,346.50, but silver lost 9.5 cents to 2078.4c. That boosted the GOLD/SILVER RATIO to 64.785, highest level in a long time. I don't know why they're disagreeing, or why they haven't corrected, but it points to more strength than I give gold credit for. Still, drops in platinum and palladium leave me squirming.

Technically the MACD is pointing down, Rate of change is dropping, and stochastics are rolling over, but the GOLD PRICE keeps levitating. If it escapes $1,355 it will run higher like a scalded dog.

The SILVER PRICE remains below its 200 DMA, but today reached up with a 2133c high and punched into the 20 DMA (2125c). Low was 2067, so the range is coming to life. On an end of day chart silver closed higher at 2088c. As with the gold price, the silver price is hinting it wants to rise, but hinting only.

I grow less and less comfortable waiting to buy. Start pecking at it.

Since we all have to balance our own budgets and can't for long spend more than we take in, we don't get it when it comes to government spending. When you can print your own money and force people at point of gun to take it as money, you can spend all you want. You don't need taxes for revenue, only for social control. Read that again.

They don't levy taxes for revenue -- they don't need 'em. All federal taxes are about controlling your behavior, nothing else.

Res ipsa loquitur -- the thing speaks for itself. A chart just says what it says, and copper is saying it very loudly. It sank again today, 3.1%, to $2.95, well below $3.00. Copper is saying that it expects very poor economic activity. Very poor. Bad juju for the stock market.

Stocks kept on rolling over downward today. Dow backed up 67.43 (0.41%) to 16,351.25 and the S&P500 inchwormed down 9.54 (0.51%) ending at 1,867.63. Several indicators are beginning to show the effects of gravity rather badly. Copper is flashing a warning for stocks.

Stocks' stumble today sent the Dow in Gold and Dow in silver down. After puncturing its downtrend line and 20 day moving average yesterday, the Dow in Gold fell below both today, down 1.12% to 12.12 oz (G$250.54 gold dollars). Is the correction over? Has the plunge resumed?

Dow in silver nearly reached its downtrend line, then dropped away today by 0.63% to 783.11 oz. Both Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver appear to be rolling over, but no proof yet, just hints.

To remind y'all why I bother with this, the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver measure the value of stocks in silver or gold. The primary trend (15-20 years) for the DiG and DiS turned down in 1999 and 2001. Both have been in an upward correction the length of the metals' downward correction (2011-2013). When they fall back through the downtrend line they will powerfully confirm that silver and gold's long walk in the wilderness has ended.

US dollar Index teetereth yet on the brink. Rose 2 basis points to 79.77 today. Meanwhile the euro which looked recently like it was to break out in a rally to new highs was ambushed by ECB statements today hinting that the Fed was not the only central bank that can do quantitative easing. Euro fell 0.13% to $1.3860. This is not fatal to a rally. A fall below $1.3800 would be fatal. In perfectly counterintuitive form today, the Yen rose on news the Bank of Japan intends to inflate more. Climbed 0.26% to 97.07 cents/Y100, barely above the 50 DMA (97.02).

Sometimes when I look at the financial and banking system and the fiat currencies, I feel like a drunk waking up off a four day moonshine and meth toot thinking, "How did it ever get this crazy?"

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Silver and Gold Prices: The Gold Price Lost 1 Percent or $13.60 ...

Posted: 07 Mar 2014 04:56 PM PST

Gold Price Close Today : 1,338.10
Gold Price Close 27-Feb-14 : 1,331.60
Change : 6.50 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.897
Silver Price Close 27-Feb-14 : 21.314
Change : -0.417 or -2.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.033
Gold Silver Ratio 27-Feb-14 : 62.475
Change : 1.558 or 2.5%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01562
Silver Gold Ratio 27-Feb-14 : 0.01601
Change : -0.00039 or -2.4%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 254.17
Dow in Gold Dollars 27-Feb-14 : $ 252.62
Change : 1.55 or 0.6%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 12.296
Dow in Gold Ounces 27-Feb-14 : 12.220
Change : 0.08 or 0.6%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 787.32
Dow in Silver Ounces 27-Feb-14 : 763.47
Change : 23.85 or 3.1%

Dow Industrial : 16,452.72
Dow Industrial 27-Feb-14 : 16,272.65
Change : 180.07 or 1.1%

S&P 500 : 1,878.04
S&P 500 27-Feb-14 : 1,854.29
Change : 23.75 or 1.3%

US Dollar Index : 79.730
US Dollar Index 27-Feb-14 : 80.320
Change : -0.59 or -0.7%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,483.00
Platinum Price Close 27-Feb-14 : 1,452.15
Change : 30.85 or 2.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 781.60
Palladium Price Close 27-Feb-14 : 742.25
Change : 39.35 or 5.3%

The GOLD PRICE lost 1% or $13.60 today in a steep drop to $1,338.10 while silver tumbled 3% (64.5 cents) to 2089.7c. Owch! Below 2100c.

Right now it appears that the GOLD PRICE is entering a correction that will fall to the bottom of the trading channel, right now about $1,320 and rising, or even to the 200 DMA at $1,303.14. Conceivable is a drop to the neckline of the upside down head and shoulders it broke down in February, now about $1,280.

I find gold corrections almost as much fun as rubbing down my feet with broken glass and salt, but we've got to live through them. I expect this one to be minor, and to offer an opportunity to buy a bushel at a sale price.

On the monthly chart the gold price has three months' running rise. On the weekly chart the gold price just this week closed ABOVE the downtrend line from the August 2011 high. That's a milestone.

The SILVER PRICE today at last dropped below its 200 DMA (2100c) to the upper border of the trading range that contained it form November's end through February's middle. First target for a reversal is 2036c, the 50 day moving average.

Get your money can down off the shelf and get ready. Very soon silver and gold prices will offer you a buying opportunity. Watch closely.

I was expecting that last week put a little cap on silver and gold for a while, and another week makes that look accurate, even though gold gained this week. Stocks continue to rise, probing how much air hot government money can blow into a balloon. Unrest in southern Africa and Russia, home to most of the world's platinum and palladium, pushed up the white metals. Their piper often plays a different tune than gold and silver's. US dollar index set itself up for a trip to 79.

S&P500 made another new high this week, but the Dow laggeth still. Oddly, most indices (Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000) dropped but the Dow rose 30.83 (0.2%) today to 16,452.72. S&P500 climbed 1.01 (0.05%) to end up at 1,878.04. Is the Dow making up its mind to play catch-up? If so, stocks can go higher into May.

Dow in Gold rose 0.97% to 12.28 oz (G$253.85 gold dollars), and punched a little hole in the downtrend line and the 20 DMA (12.24). This whisper and today's gold drop tends to confirm my suspicion that the DiG is ripe for a rally to correct briefly its long fall from December.

Dow in silver rose 3% to 787.40 oz, but unlike DiG remains below its downtrend line. Right now that coincides with the 50 DMA (795.56 oz). Both the DiS and DiG will move higher for a while.

US Dollar Index rose an embarrassing five basis points (0.06%) today, just enough to avoid classification with the Zimbabwean dollar. It's a bad week indeed when a Russian invasion of Ukraine can't raise the dollar index.

Dollar Index has formed a falling wedge. Wedges usually resolve with a breakout in the opposite direction they point, so that suggests the dollar should soon begin some rally, but perhaps not before visiting 79.

The euro settled questions about its short term future by rising 0.15% to $1.3882. Well, really I am anticipating because the Euro closed smack on its old upper trend line, but I think a two day close above the last high ($1.3847) will probably carry it higher. Technically it could run to $1.4000 or $1.4200, but 'tis hard to picture how the eurocrats could stand that much downward pressure on their exports. Maybe the Fed is strong-arming them?

The yen, on the other hand, has tanked this week, and today lost another 0.14% to 96.84, below its 50 DMA (96.97). Wait to buy your Japanese dinner china, as it will be cheaper next week.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Gold Price Analysis- March 10, 2014 - DailyForex.com

<b>Gold Price</b> Analysis- March 10, 2014 - DailyForex.com

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