Silver prices | <b>Silver</b> to Gold Ratio: 27 Years of <b>Price</b> Data :: The Market Oracle <b>...</b> |
- <b>Silver</b> to Gold Ratio: 27 Years of <b>Price</b> Data :: The Market Oracle <b>...</b>
- Are <b>Silver Prices</b> Set Up for Another Heartbreak? | SilverDoctors.com
- <b>Silver Price</b> Set To Stun :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets <b>...</b>
- Gold And <b>Silver Price</b> Central Bank Manipulation Or Chinese <b>...</b>
- <b>Silver Price</b> Today Cushioned by Solid Demand - Money Morning
| <b>Silver</b> to Gold Ratio: 27 Years of <b>Price</b> Data :: The Market Oracle <b>...</b> Posted: 27 May 2014 05:44 AM PDT By: DeviantInvestor
Examine the following chart. We can see that:
My conclusions from this graph are that the silver-to-gold ratio is currently priced at the low end of the range, long-term silver prices are gradually increasing relative to gold, and a price explosion could occur at any time, or perhaps not for several years. Is there more we can learn from the ratio? Take the weekly prices for silver and the weekly silver-to-gold ratio and smooth them with a 7 week centered simple moving average. This merely removes some of the "noise" in the graphs. Plot that weekly data since 2002, roughly the beginning of the silver and gold bull markets. Examine that graph.
Statistics
Based on the ratio data and the statistics, we can conclude that:
FundamentalsGold demand is strong – ask China, Russia and India. Western central banks have "leased" some, or perhaps most, of their gold. The German gold stored at the NY Fed was not returned – possibly because it is no longer in the vaults. See Julian Phillips' analysis on that topic. If most of the central banks' gold is gone ("leased" into the market), demand will soon overwhelm the supply of real, physical gold. The High-Frequency Traders can suppress the paper market, but not forever. It is a reasonable bet that gold, about 40% below its 2011 high and facing large demand and dwindling supply, will rally in price over the next few years. Silver prices will follow gold prices but rally farther and faster from their currently low and oversold condition. Was the above analysis a conclusive proof that gold and silver prices must rally? Obviously not! But it strongly suggests:
Investor demand for silver and gold bars and coins is strong and increasing. I think silver and gold prices will be higher by the end of 2014 and much higher by the next US presidential election. The pieces of paper we mistakenly call money will become less valuable in the years ahead. Take this opportunity to convert some paper currency to physical silver while the High Frequency Traders and central bankers are gifting us with artificially low silver and gold prices. You might also find value in: Silver Was Not in a Bubble in 2011! Silver in the Dead Zone of Disinterest GE Christenson aka Deviant Investor If you would like to be updated on new blog posts, please subscribe to my RSS Feed or e-mail © 2014 Copyright Deviant Investor - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors. © 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.  |
| Are <b>Silver Prices</b> Set Up for Another Heartbreak? | SilverDoctors.com Posted: 20 May 2014 07:00 AM PDT 
By Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, Silver-Coin-Investor: For long term investors and precious metals observers, the range-bound price action has rubbed salt into the open wound of short price sentiment. That is, if there is anyone left to remember the move up to $50 in 2011. How long prices can remain relatively quiet and range-bound (in the face of growing fundamentals, geopolitical tension, and the rising awareness of inflation) is anyone's guess. Restlessness is developing, perhaps correlated with the volatility and commingled with hope over news of the ending the "London Fixing". Due to trading positions and willingness to overtly manipulate the market, combined with upcoming geopolitical tensions, it might be best to expect a move down over the short term. Price Discovery Price discovery is the main culprit. As long as positions held at COMEX remain dominated and concentrated, nothing is real and the darker mechanism out of London means very little. It's not difficult to envision JPM, et al., walking unsuspecting weak-handed longs and seeking natural safety into this market in order to sheer them out of position and buy the HFT-induced dips. Producer prices surprised the market to the upside, while the BLS has just "discovered" food inflation. Professional traders can play this game and come out as winners because they are nimble enough and can turn on a dime. But as weak (paper) hands play into the game, their losses will probably become the big bank's gains. This is the script. In addition to range bound restlessness, traders are looking now toward volatility to gauge the next move. Low Volatility Forbes recently published: "Just last week (silver) prices slipped to $18.685, the lowest level since mid-July on a continuation chart and a four-year low for a July futures contract. Prices rebounded, following the bounce in gold prices. 30-day silver options volatility is around 12% as of Tuesday's close, coming just off a 10-year low made during last week's price drop. The last time silver volatility fell to the mid-teens was last year, just before silver prices broke in April 2013 and then in late 2010, ahead of the 2011 spike to record highs. Comparatively, silver's volatility is usually around 30%. Volatility is always mean-reverting, so when volatility is that low, it's ready for a big move, according the (obscure) source quoted." Volatility is all about where the big banks want the price and perception to be in the short term. Again, (viewed from the perspective of specs who are ultimately at the mercy of the big shorts), they can be harvested – they will be, independent of prices. Having such low volatility is unusual for silver, and one analyst said it's a situation that's unlikely to last. Does this mean anything more than an after-effect of what happens when each and every rally is stifled? When a range-bound channel works well for those seeking a profit, picking up nickels in a steamroller – and those who would rather not see the price move too far too fast? Users are happy – and by proxy. And it works out for monetary policymakers, most who probably don't think or concern themselves with the metals. Bernanke's answer to Ron Paul's question in 2012 said it all. His answer that gold was not money was probably less of an outright lie than an example of how far off the radar we've gone. One must not forget is that the manipulation of gold and silver has been achieved by legal mechanisms. It's the equivalent of allowing a semi truck to drive through a regulatory loophole. Ultimately, by distorting fundamental expression (as well as cultural wealth expression) for so long, the resultant risk builds tremendous fuels for whichever ransom spark eventually ignites the fire. Silver Shield Uncle Slave What Fundamentals? Here are few developments on top of the more obvious ones. For example, above ground investment grade silver amounts to less than one fifth the supply of gold, yet the price is inverse – to the tune of 65 to 1. Or that most silver used by industry is delivered just in time and, therefore, demand is totally underestimated. Or that silver is the only commodity that makes inflation adjusted high seem like some bizarre phenomenon. A few others:
With regard to investing alternatives, let us be reminded that there are always a thousand reasons to buy at the top; and a thousand reasons to sell at the bottom. Most have a clear choice between buying into a conventional stock market, making all time high after all time high. Or buying an asset like silver that is off over 60% from its highs and 100′s of percentage points from conservative inflation-adjusted highs. Markets (even rigged ones), contrary to what many are saying, do not fall forever. D-Day- "The Longest Day" Available June 6th at SDBullion 10,000 Brilliant Uncirculated 1 oz Coins- in honor of the 10,000 Allied casualties suffered on D-Day Each of the individually numbered COA's will specifically honor one of the 1,557 American Heroes MIA on D-Day, including their Rank, Name, Unit, Home State, & Decorations. |
| <b>Silver Price</b> Set To Stun :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets <b>...</b> Posted: 26 May 2014 06:32 AM PDT By: Austin_Galt
YEARLY CHART What an absolute spanking silver has taken over the past few years! There's no two ways about it. Silver bulls must be experiencing that horrid feeling of complete despair after seeing the price walloped more than 60% from the 2011 all time high of US$49.51. After a shocking 2013, the price has done just about nought in 2014, not putting the bulls out of their misery by dropping further but keeping them on the leash with a faint glimmer of hope. It really is a sadistic picture! With such negativity abounding, it got me thinking. It is this type of negative sentiment that is commonly found at major low points. So taking out the emotion let's look at the chart objectively. Despite the shellacking the price has taken, there have not been any major swing lows broken. A long term structural bull market remains in play. Looking at the chart it really does appear to need some more downside but that seems too obvious. And when something appears too obvious I put on my contrarian hat. It's hard to imagine that big bearish candle seen in 2013 will be the ultimate low to the correction. But having said that I'm not convinced there is much more downside. So that leaves me with the possibility of a marginal false break low before a reversal and commencement of the next major upleg. But this is mostly speculation on my part. More evidence is needed. So let's take a look at the monthly chart. MONTHLY CHART
Firstly, let's start with the Fibonacci retracement levels I have drawn on the chart. These are the retracement levels of the upleg from the 2008 low to 2011 high. What is evidently clear is that price is currently rubbing up against the 76.4% level of US$18.10. This level was Fibonacci's last stand so to speak. If this level is breached then price should head back to where it all began, in this case US$8.40. That just seems too extreme. Now pay attention to the circled area. We can see it is in this area that price really started to explode out of its normal uptrend. Simply put, price went parabolic. Now one thing I have learnt is that when correcting, price eventually comes back to these levels where the explosion began. That is where price is right now. Moving on, there appears to be a triple bottom in place as noted by the numbers. I have used the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) which shows that each new triple bottom low coincides with a less weak RSI reading. Better said, the lows are losing strength. This is a bullish divergence. So this should give rise shortly to a rally that should last several months. However, triple bottoms rarely end trends so what does that tell us? Well, I'd suggest the rally will be unlikely to surpass the August 2013 high of US$25.13 which occurred after the first bottom(1). Therefore, once the rally fails to take out that swing high level, price should head back down and break the triple bottom low price of US$18.16. But will that be a clear break or a false break? Gann taught that price usually cracks support and heads lower on the 4th attempt. However, if that 4th attempt is not successful then it is an extremely bullish sign. So a marginal false break of the US$18.16 low means it stays close the 76.4% Fib level, it is the failed 4th attempt at a clean break of support and it is at the same level where price went parabolic. I'm telling you, technical evidence just doesn't stack up much better than that! But let's press on a bit more and have a look at the weekly chart. WEEKLY CHART Now we know from the bullish divergence from the RSI indicator on the monthly chart that price can be expected to rally shortly. This would see price breakout above the diagonal resistance line I have drawn. There will be a lot of chartists looking at that break and calling the end of the bear market. But no, that would be too easy. After a brief period of optimism, price should fail to take out the resistance line and turn back down. After so much pessimism, and then some fleeting optimism, this development would be devastating for the permabulls. And the straw to break the camel's back will be the break to new lows. I would imagine there will be a lot of stop loss orders placed under the US$18.16 low. I, for one, will be looking to buy into that stop loss selling. And it is at that exact point in time, when the bulls are reaching for the trigger, that we will likely have our final correctional low in place. As the old Colombian boss of bosses, Pablo Escobar, used to say, "la plata o el plomo". The silver or the lead. Now clearly I won't recommend the lead, but neither will I the silver. Not just yet anyway. Bio I have studied charts for over 20 years and currently am a private trader. Several years ago I worked as a licensed advisor with a well known Australian stock broker. While there was an abundance of fundamental analysts there seemed to be a dearth of technical analysts, at least ones that had a reasonable idea of things. So my aim here is to provide my view of technical analysis that is both intriguing and misunderstood by many. I like to refer to it as the black magic of stock market analysis. I am available to be a paid contributor for a reputable outfit. Please register your interest in my website coming soon. Contact austingalt@hotmail.com © 2014 Copyright Austin Galt - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors. © 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. |
| Gold And <b>Silver Price</b> Central Bank Manipulation Or Chinese <b>...</b> Posted: 24 May 2014 01:28 PM PDT By: Michael_Noonan
China wants to see the price of gold at the current low levels as she continues to buy up as much of the [not so readily] available supply. The central bank manipulation continues as a means of protecting the last vestiges of the soon-to-fail petro-dollar, and soon-to-fail as the world's reserve currency upon which almost global trade is based. The Chinese are willing to see gold stagnate at current levels as a better bargain during the final stages of their accumulation. It works for both sides for totally different reasons. For how long can these low prices continue...the ever pressing question on the minds of the gold and silver community and topic of so many articles written by the experts? While many have striven to provide an answer, and 2013 failed to match the "predictions" as to the "When?" issue, the best answer is: For as long as it takes. Back in January and February, it become more apparent that the highly anticipated huge rally for PMs was going to take longer than most expected. In April, we wrote an article that 2014 Could Be Yawner. There is no reason not to carry that notion further into 2015 before gold and silver begin to challenge their 1900 and 50 respective high price levels. The one thing certain is that no one, absolutely no one can provide an accurate time-table for when PMs will trade at much higher levels. 2013 should be a reminder of the many who endeavored to fix a date and all of whom failed. It is utter nonsense to think anyone can accurately divine the future. The good news is that we do not need to actually know the "When?" All that matters is to be prepared for the eventuality. If you are prepared, then you will have accomplished one of the most important responsibilities for wealth protection/preservation/growth as a means for survival. Instead of watching the Precious Metals Rally clock, an exercise in exasperation, so far, better to be secure in the knowledge that you have done what you need to do, and instead, start to relax and learn to enjoy more out of life. If events are triggered that propel PMs higher, or even substantially higher next month, next Quarter, or next year, if you are prepared, you will be a winning participant! Once and as it happens, you will feel a sense of relief for having waited so long, and a sense of accomplishment for having prepared. If you have not fully prepared, you have a tenuous gift in both time and price in which to act as quickly as possible. The time to act and be better prepared is now, and at prices you and your children, and your children's children will not likely ever see again. Those who are disheartened because events have not occurred in the time sequence that was hoped for are missing the point. This is not a get-rich-quick scenario confronting almost all of us. This is a matter of survival. All anyone can do is prepare. One does not eat well and exercise to live longer, one does both to be in the best possible health to live each new day. As it happens, those who watch their intake and take care of their physical health to enjoy daily living also tend to live longer, as an added reward. Consider: Physical PM shortages, depleted physical for delivery on exchanges, record buying by the public, world-wide, record buying by China, corrupt central banker price manipulation, government theft or confiscation, unlimited derivative exposure, existing demand for the physical that far outstrips available known supply, unlimited printing of fiat that can only result in currency destruction, civil unrest in many countries, any one of which could lead to a wider war, plus a litany of unknowns that can be important. They have already been factored into the current prices for gold and silver, and any one of these events, or a more potent combination of them acting in unison can drive up the price of PMs but have not, to date. This is what you need to know. Whatever it is that will launch gold and silver higher has not yet occurred. Many of the "Whatever it is" are already known factors, but their influence/effect has not yet been unleashed. Yes, if the manipulation stopped, PMs would rally immediately, but the event that puts a halt to the manipulation has not happened, so that part of the suppression of gold and silver remains in play. For how long can it continue? Again, for as long as it takes. Does anyone have a better answer? [Not that better answers cannot be had.] For those who do not know the answer, the solution, or at least one good solution, is being prepared. There is another issue not talked about and that is the seeming failure of the elites who "appear" to be forced to sell their gold. The very foundation of the Rothschild formula is the acquisition of [mostly] gold, and also silver, in exchange for debt-based currency. There has not been a smarter collection of individuals, [or more devious and destructive], that comprise the Rothschild-founded central banking system. It would seem odd that such an astute and all-powerful-behind-the-scenes-force as the elites would find themselves in such a compromised situation to no longer have any, or very little gold and silver left. It seems equally unimaginable that the elites could be so stupid if they have put themselves in such a weakened state. It is a possibility, and one of such incredible and fitting irony, if true. What keeps them in power is the built-in structure they have accumulated in every major Western government under their control, which also includes the potent military, and the media to keep the masses dumbed down. The perverted transition of the United States from a sovereign Republic, with an organic Constitution that limits government, to an elite central banker-controlled, bankrupt corporation, known as the federal UNITED STATES, with its substituted federal statutory constitution that replaced the original, is the premier example of how the elites work through stealth, and over decades as their time frame, to accomplish their vile ends. Whatever one chooses to believe, one still has to deal with the known facts, and what is factually known to date is that gold is at 1,300, [not 1,500, not 2,000, and certainly not 5,000 or 10,000 the ounce], and silver at 19, [not 26, not 50, and for sure, not 100 or 300 the ounce]. However corrupt or not reflective of the "real price" for PMs, the charts continue to be the most commonly accepted measure, at least for now. Regardless of what one chooses to be the most accurate or reliable measure, there can be no dispute that preparation for what is to come is the best way to deal with "When?" Weekly gold has been in a broad TR since last June '13, and a TR within a TR since Dec '13. There is no sense of urgency to leave the range-bound structure, so one can only exercise patience until something clearer develops, which will eventually happen. The 1280 area is an axis line, acting as resistance from November '13 through February '14, and it now acts as a support area for the past 2 months. The farther price moves along the RHS, [Right Hand Side] of the TR, the closer is gets to a resolve. Sentiment favors a move higher, but reality is that one need not know the breakout direction beforehand. All one needs do is to be prepared for a move in either direction, and follow the market's lead. Little can be said of the silver market, from the expectation of a move higher. Buyers have been AWOL, [a military term: Absent With Out Leave], and nothing will change until there is evidence of strong upside moves accompanied by increased volume. The problem with pointing out a small possibility of what could be positive activity is that it preconditions the mind to look for more supportive evidence at the expense of missing what could be a subtle negative development. Just wait for confirmation that buyers are starting to create wide range rallies with strong closes on increased volume. If silver is to move higher, what we just described will make its presence obvious. Until it does, caution is advised. There could be another new recent low, and the odds for that event are greater than 50%. It may be a buying opportunity. How a new low develops, if at all, will make that assessment worth acting on, or not. By Michael Noonan Michael Noonan, mn@edgetraderplus.com, is a Chicago-based trader with over 30 years in the business. His sole approach to analysis is derived from developing market pattern behavior, found in the form of Price, Volume, and Time, and it is generated from the best source possible, the market itself. © 2014 Copyright Michael Noonan - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors. © 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. |
| <b>Silver Price</b> Today Cushioned by Solid Demand - Money Morning Posted: 22 May 2014 12:56 PM PDT The silver price today moved solidly higher in morning trading following some positive economic data out of China.
The news stoked global stock markets and the overall raw commodity sector, as China is the world's largest consumer of raw commodities. The Asian nation is also the world's second-largest economy. Meanwhile, data showing a slowdown for manufacturers across the Eurozone region strengthened the case for the European Central Bank to loosen monetary policies at its next meeting in Frankfurt, Germany, on June 5. "The China manufacturing data is good news, Jacques Porta, who helps oversee $780 million at Ofi Gestion Privee in Paris, told Bloomberg. "It will have a positive impact on Europe, especially on mining stocks. The bad-euro-area PMI data could add to signs that the ECB will be obliged to intervene soon. The downside risk to stocks is that the ECB doesn't act in June." Downside risks for silver will likely be limited over the next two days. Indeed, silver prices could actually see some positive momentum heading into the weekend. Tensions have risen ahead of Sunday's presidential election in Ukraine. Eight soldiers were killed in fighting, and several others hurt Thursday, at an army checkpoint when dozens of gunman tried to enter Ukraine from Russia. Sunday's election is aimed at stabilizing Ukraine after mass street protests toppled Moscow-backed President Viktor Yanukovich in February. Separatists, however, pledge to prevent the voting from going ahead in eastern towns where they have taken control. The United States and the European Union warn they will impose broad sanctions on Russia, which annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula in March after Yanukovich's ouster, if it attempts to derail the election. Demand for safe-haven silver has shown signs of life during the last several Friday sessions amid simmering conflicts overseas. In fact, worldwide demand for silver continues to remain robust after hitting an all-time high last year. Solid Silver Demand to Support PricesA slump in silver prices in 2013 left the white metal much more affordable and buoyed a wave of buying among opportunistic investors. As silver prices plunged a painful 36% last year, global sales of silver coins and bars surged some 76%, data from last week's World Silver Survey 2014 showed. "Despite persistently low silver prices, demand for physical silver witnessed an all-time high in 2013," Money Morning Global Resources Specialist Peter Krauth explained. "Demand rose by 13% to a record 1.081 billion ounces, according to the World Silver Survey 2014 prepared by the Silver Institute." And, with silver prices nearly flat year to date, early signs suggest another solid year for silver demand. Sales of the popular American Silver Eagle coins hit 4,590,500 in April, up 12.3% from the 4,087,000 sold in the same month a year earlier. It was the sixth-highest monthly sales total and the best April ever. Plus, the Mint sold 5,354,000 American Silver Eagles in March, marking its fourth-biggest sales month ever. Sales in March 2104 were a whopping 59.5% more than sold in March 2013. Meanwhile, the Perth Mint in Australia reports sales of its one-ounce silver crocodile coin are being "snapped" up. Some 300,000 sold over a week's time. The Perth Mint expects the 1 million minted croc coins to sell out in a month or two. As global demand for silver has become so frenzied, a Singapore retail supplier of coins and bars recently opened a new 600-metric-ton vault. It was the second sizable silver storage facility to be built in the Asian region in less than six months, and more are expected. Silver will continue to be a popular investment for the same reasons it has always been a favored alternative asset: irresponsible government spending, over-accommodating global central banks, inflation jitters, and always simmering (somewhere) geopolitical tensions. As such, silver prices are poised to rise... "As market forces begin to reassert themselves, and they will, look for silver prices to rise in tandem," Krauth says. "All the fundamental drivers for much higher silver prices are still intact, so now is a great time to position yourself for higher silver." Today's Top Story: Emerging markets come with a special set of risks that we don't always find at home. But for investors who know what they're holding, emerging markets still hold outsize profit potential. And taking your share of $70 billion in global growth has never been easier, thanks to these special securities... |
Statistically, gold and silver prices closely follow each other. But what is more important is the ratio between silver and gold and the trend of that ratio.
It certainly started out as central bank manipulation, doing everything possible to cover their theft and resulting deficiency of replaceable physical gold. Almost all of their unauthorized reselling or hypothecating went unnoticed or without any ability to stop the activity. China had a lot of its gold stored in the United States that was stolen in the 1990s. She has since become the world-leading economic powerhouse and is now in a position to force the Rothschild elites to make good on the theft, which they are doing.
July Comex silver traded up $0.392, or 1.26%, at $19.73, after the preliminary HSBC China manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for May came in at 49.7. That was up from 48.1 in April, and was the best reading in five months.| You are subscribed to email updates from Silver prices - Google Blog Search To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
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