Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: <b>Gold Price</b> Lost 1 Percent Closing at $1,359 |
| Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: <b>Gold Price</b> Lost 1 Percent Closing at $1,359 Posted: 18 Mar 2014 07:50 PM PDT Gold Price Close Today : 1359.00 Change : -13.90 or -1.01% Silver Price Close Today : 20.836 Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.224 Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01533 Platinum Price Close Today : 1461.20 Palladium Price Close Today : 771.75 S&P 500 : 1,872.25 Dow In GOLD$ : $248.49 Dow in GOLD oz : 12.021 Dow in SILVER oz : 784.04 Dow Industrial : 16,336.19 US Dollar Index : 79.530 The GOLD PRICE lost $13.90 (1%) and closed at $1,359.00 Spot silver lost 41.3 cents (2%) to 2083.6c. Ratio rose to a new high for this move at 65.224. The GOLD PRICE traded along above $1,360 until New York opened, when it dropped from 8:30 to 10:00 down to $1,351.10. After that it climbed steadily until 2:00 p.m,, when it began dropping off and ended the day sulking around $1,355. That takes gold back to the support/resistance level where this latest breakout began, and within stumbling distance of the 20 DMA ($1,344). Bottom boundary of there rising trading channel lies today about $1,340, so the area from $1,344 to $1,339 stands ready to catch gold. Another possibility is a fall back to the neckline where gold broke out in February, now about $1,290, near the 50 DMA ($1,293). That would have all the gold bugs puking in their wastebaskets and prove again the proverb's truth, "The Market is not benevolent." MACD flashed a sell signal today. Pendulum is swinging back to the downside. O Woe! The SILVER PRICE fell back into its downtrend trading channel and below its 200 DMA (2096c). Not far below it will strike the top of that trading range it escaped in February -- that line stand about 2050c, right at the 50 DMA (2054c), a good place to halt a correction. Up or down, I don't get too excited. The Fed and the yankee government are the truest friends silver and gold have. They will surely keep on flooding the market with money, and sure as they do, silver and gold will remain in a bull market and we will see greater gains from here than we saw from 2001 - 2011. Hide and watch. Can we talk about something other than markets today? It's just the same old back and forth, and I'm afraid y'all are going to get tired of hearing about it. Take those sorry fiat currencies, sorrier than gully dirt. They're gyrating back and forth like one of those old black GE fans on low, not doing a bit of good. US Dollar Index was practically petrified today. Had a 25 basis point range from 79.68 to 79.43, and closed up one lone basis point at 79.53. That does nothing and says nothing, except that nobody's interested in the dollar. Euro gained 0.7% to $1.3932. If it intends to rally it's not in any big hurry, I'll say that. Yes, it's out there above the old top resistance, but why is it stuck? Yen today gained 0.33% to 98.61, invalidating the exhaustion gap made yesterday, because those are never filled. Momentum is up. STOCKS climbed again today. Dow bolted on a new 88.97 (0.55%) to 16,336.19. That's above the 20 day moving average, and below the last top, which was lower than the top before and the one before that. In other words, still technically in a down trend. But it if gets a leg over that last top at 16,505, we might see the last and final new all-time high, one that will hold for a couple of centuries. S&P500 rose 13.42 (0.72%) to 1,872.25. Dow in metals reversed today. Dow in gold rose 1.44% to 12.05 oz (G$249.10 gold dollars) and cut through and above its 200 DMA and the Downtrend line. Whispers of a bigger upward correction coming. Dow in silver rose 2.31% to 785.45 oz (S$1,015.53 silver dollars), rising over its 20 DMA and smack up to its downtrend line. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.  |
| Trader Dan's Market Views: <b>Gold Price</b> vs Hedge Fund Activity Posted: 15 Mar 2014 10:24 AM PDT It took a bit of doing but I have been able to create a chart of the price of gold overlaid against the activity of the big hedge funds based on the Commitment of Traders report. I present it here for your reading convenience. The blue line is the number of OUTRIGHT LONG positions among this group of traders. The black line is the number of OUTRIGHT SHORT positions. The area chart ( in green) is based on the CLOSING PRICE of gold for the week ( please note that this is not a daily chart).  Notice the near perfect symmetry of the green area chart ( the gold price at the Comex) with the blue line. This is why I keep stating that the big speculators ( hedge funds) are the drivers of our modern markets. You can see the price of gold has tended to rise and fall with that blue line until early in 2013. About that time, the number of short positions by the hedge funds because to increase as this category of traders became increasingly bearish. The wholesale long liquidation halted at that time as well. From that point forward, the blue line is relatively flat. However the gold price continued to fall. Why was that? Answer - because the hedge funds began to play gold more from the short side as they ramped up the number of outright short positions to its largest point in over a decade. That selling took the price of gold down below $1200 at one point ( remember this is a weekly closing price).  In July of 2013 an enormous short covering rally took the price of gold up over $200 from off the low. Can you see the sharp fall in the BLACK LINE and the corresponding rise in the green area? Then look at what happened - the price of gold began to fall again but this time around it was mainly due to hedge fund long liquidation ( see the sharp drop in the blue line). Shorts were covering into that long liquidation and that is why the black line moved lower along side of the gold price. Then in November of last year, the hedge funds began aggressively shorting gold again ( the black line rises sharply) with the result that the price dropped well over $150 into the end of the year. Now look at what has happened this year... look at that black line and see it plummet. Look also at the blue line and see it jump. Hedge funds are both covering shorts aggressively while some in that same category are rebuilding longs. The result has been to push the gold price up nearly $200 once again. Please note that this has everything to do with money flows ( money flowing into and out of gold) and nothing to do with price manipulation theories. When specs are buying, the price rises. It does not matter whether the buying is coming from short covering or from new buying - the price will rise.( The longevity of that price rise is however dependent on the nature of that buying - but that is a different topic ). When specs are selling, the price will fall. What you see reflected in these two lines, the black one and the blue one, is a visual graph of INVESTOR SENTIMENT towards gold. It really is that simple. Tell me what the sentiment is towards gold, and I will tell you what the price is going to do. Why do you think we spend so much time attempting to discern the shifts in sentiment and what is driving prices? Notice I am using the words "INVESTOR SENTIMENT". By that I mean Western investment demand, not Asian physical buying. The latter merely bottoms the gold price; it does not drive it strongly higher. That is reserved for investment demand coming from the West. Incidentally, this is what technical analysis and study of the charts does for us - it provides a glimpse into changing sentiment. Learn to read the charts, and you will learn to gauge sentiment. You do not need to waste your money and enrich others by paying for their high-priced newsletters and putting up with their wild predictions. In my mind, too many of these hucksters cannot make a living trading so they rely on you, their carbon-based, warm-blooded hosts, to feed them and provide them with a stream of steady income. Save your money, force these human ticks to trade to earn their own living, and do your own analysis and your own thinking. I can tell you one thing with absolute certainty - if the majority of these overpriced newsletter hustlers had to actually trade to produce an income, you would see a huge reduction in the number of wild prognostications, sensational claims, goofball theories ( backwardation claptrap always comes to my mind), and other assorted reasons for you to rush blindly into a market without having the foggiest idea of why you are putting YOUR HARD-EARNED WEALTH at risk based on the theory of someone else whom you do not know and who will still make money even if they are wrong. You, on the other hand, are the one who stands to lose. Remember that....
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