11 March 2014 - 透过黄金看全球经济

11 March 2014 - 透过黄金看全球经济
10 March 2014 - Debt Exceeds $100 Trillion as Governments Binge
10 March 2014 - 下一个不可忽视的事件：印度需求上升推高金价
10 March 2014 - A Few Reasons To Be Bullish On Gold

Posted: 11 Mar 2014 03:04 AM PDT

From:http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/20140311/092218470615.shtml

2014年03月11日 09:22 生意社

生意社03月11日讯

全国两会期间，在3月4日晚举行的专题讲座上，全国政协委员、经济学家林毅夫透过去年金价的下跌行情，纵论全球经济形势。他说："目前，全球特别是发达国家，经济并未回暖，各国央行还在推行宽松货币政策。"因此，支撑金价的整体经济形势并未发生根本性变化。

"去年，金价一天的跌幅就达到10%，可谓崩盘式、断崖式下跌。在一些人看来，是因为塞浦路斯央行宣布出售黄金(1348.20, 6.70, 0.50%)引起的。但作为一个地中海小国，塞浦路斯能有多少黄金引起全球黄金市场如此大的波动？"林毅夫说。

在林毅夫看来，真正造成国际黄金市场大幅波动的"罪魁祸首"，是各国央行推出的量化宽松政策。

"一些发达国家的利率基本为零，各国投机者以非常低的价格融资投入到黄金等大宗商品市场进行炒作，使市场呈现一片繁荣。而一旦有风吹草动，投机者便纷纷撤出，造成黄金市场大幅波动。"林毅夫说，"塞浦路斯掀不起这么大波澜。"

实际上，林毅夫对于金价下跌的看法并不独特，但他从更深更宏观的层次上分析了造成各国央行采取量化宽松政策的根本原因：美国实际失业率已达历史高位、欧洲央行无条件购买南欧国家主权债务、日本实体经济毫无起色——发达国家找不到进行深层次经济改革的路径。

在业内，观察金价走势的一个重要指标是美国的失业率。"美国现在公布失业率已降到6.6%，这一数字与发生金融危机前的数字接近，但这只是统计学意义上的。"林毅夫说。

据林毅夫介绍，在美国，如果一个人失业后1个月找不到工作，便表示他已经退出劳动力市场，不算失业人口。能比较准确地衡量美国劳动力市场的数据，应该是适龄人口的劳动参与率。"按照这样的数据统计，目前美国的失业率达到了历史最高位的11%。"他说。

根据宏观经济数据，林毅夫表示，代表一国从经济危机走出来的经济增长率，一般能达到7%至8%的水平。"但2013年，美国的经济增长率只有1.8%。据世界银行预测，到2014年，这个数字也只有2.8%。在欧洲、日本，这一数据更糟。"

林毅夫认为，发达国家迟迟不能走出全球金融危机阴霾的主要原因，在于不能进行经济深层次结构调整。"要增加经济的造血功能就要降低工资和福利水平，提高本国产品和服务的竞争力。在政治上，这些国家的政府都是不可能做到的。"他说，"他们唯一能做的就是采取量化宽松政策。"

林毅夫进一步解释说，希腊等国家属于欧元区，没有自己的主权货币，不能通过货币贬值增加本国产品和服务的竞争力，而欧洲央行无条件购买南欧国债意味着货币增发、欧元贬值。这对美国和日本产品、服务的全球竞争力非常不利。因此，日元和美元也会跟着贬值。他甚至断言，美国和欧洲会步日本后尘，迎来"失去的20年"。

(文章来源：和讯网)

Source:http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/20140311/092218470615.shtml

10 March 2014 - Debt Exceeds $100 Trillion as Governments Binge

Posted: 09 Mar 2014 06:06 PM PDT

From:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-10/debt-exceeds-100-trillion-as-governments-binge.html

By John Glover Mar 10, 2014 11:42 PM

The amount of debt globally has soared more than 40 percent to $100 trillion since the first signs of the financial crisis as governments borrowed to pull their economies out of recession and companies took advantage of record low interest rates.

The $30 trillion increase from $70 trillion between mid-2007 and mid-2013 compares with a $3.86 trillion decline in the value of equities to $53.8 trillion, according to the Bank for International Settlements and data compiled by Bloomberg. The jump in debt as measured by the Basel, Switzerland-based BIS in its quarterly review is almost twice the U.S. economy.

Borrowing has soared as central banks suppress benchmark interest rates to spur growth after the U.S. subprime mortgage market collapsed and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s bankruptcy sent the world into its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Yields on all types of bonds, from governments to corporates and mortgages, average about 2 percent, down from more than 4.8 percent in 2007, according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Market Index.

"Given the significant expansion in government spending in recent years, governments (including central, state and local governments) have been the largest debt issuers," said Branimir Gruic, an analyst, and Andreas Schrimpf, an economist at the BIS. The organization is owned by central banks and hosts the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, which sets global capital standards.

In the six-year period to mid-2007 global debt outstanding doubled from $35 trillion, according to data compiled by BIS.

Austerity Measures

Marketable U.S. government debt outstanding has soared to a record $12 trillion, from $4.5 trillion in 2007, according to U.S. Treasury data compiled by Bloomberg. Corporate bond sales globally surged during the period, with issuance totaling more than $21 trillion, Bloomberg data show.

Concerned that high debt loads would cause international investors to avoid their markets, many nations resorted to austerity measures of reduced spending and increased taxes, sacrificing their economies as they tried to restore the fiscal order they abandoned to fight the worldwide recession.

"To get out of debt, you need prudence and you need pro-growth structural reforms," said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London. "Those are long-term processes. You can't get out of debt too quickly or your economy collapses, as we saw in Greece."

Bond Returns

Adjusting budgets to ignore interest payments, the International Monetary Fund said late last year that the so-called primary deficit in the Group of Seven countries reached an average 5.1 percent in 2010 when also smoothed to ignore large economic swings. The measure will fall to 1.2 percent this year, the IMF predicted.

The unprecedented retrenchments between 2010 and 2013 amounted to 3.5 percent of U.S. gross domestic product and 3.3 percent of euro-area GDP, according to Julian Callow, chief international economist at Barclays Plc in London.

Rising debt did little to diminish demand for fixed-income assets. Bonds worldwide have returned 31 percent since 2007, including reinvested interest, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. Treasury and agency debt handed investors gains of 27 percent, while corporate bonds returned more than 40 percent, the indexes show.

Rating Downgrades

"Total debt levels, the sum of household, government and corporate debt, haven't declined at all in recent years," said Ben Bennett, a credit strategist in London at Legal & General Investment Management, which oversees the equivalent of about $120 billion of corporate bonds. "Each time there's a wobble, the central banks turn on the taps. Either that works by creating growth with asset prices eventually coming into line with fundamentals, or it doesn't and we're in for a massive fall."

Bond investors haven't penalized sovereign issuers such as the U.S., U.K., Japan and France for losing their top credit ratings. While Standard & Poor's stripped the U.S. of its AAA ranking in August 2011, Treasuries moved in the opposite direction from what the downgrade suggested and yields touched a record low of 1.38 percent in 2012.

In the U.K., where ratings were cut one level to Aa1 from Aaa in February 2013 by Moody's Investors Service, 10-year Gilt yields fell 26 basis points to 1.85 percent in the month after the downgrade.

Increasing Indebtedness

Yields on U.S. government bonds have dropped 2.3 percentage points since 2007 to an average 1.6 percent, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch bond index data. Corporate yields have declined 2.6 percentage points to 2.9 percent.

Faster growth is deflecting concern about high debt loads. In the U.S., the government will borrow less money this year than at any time since 2008, validating the nation's decision to go deeper into debt to combat the financial crisis as a stronger economy shrinks the deficit, based on a January survey of the Wall Street's biggest bond dealers.

The government will sell $717 billion of notes and bonds on a net basis, 14 percent less than last year, according to a survey of primary dealers which are obligated to bid at Treasury auctions. Issuance has fallen every year since the U.S. borrowed a record $1.607 trillion in 2010, data compiled by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association show.

Unprecedented Stimulus

Helped by the Federal Reserve's unprecedented stimulus, the Obama administration's deficit spending has enabled the American economy to recover faster from the first global recession since World War II than European countries that chose austerity.

Faster economic growth and falling unemployment in the U.S. has slowed the build-up of debt as a proportion of GDP to 70 percent, less than two-thirds of the 24 developed nations tracked by Bloomberg. The jobless rate was 6.7 percent in February, government data showed last week, down from 7.7 percent a year earlier.

Higher corporate and individual tax receipts have prompted dealers in the Bloomberg survey to predict the U.S. budget deficit will decline by about $50 billion to $629 billion, the least since 2008.

Smaller deficits may be short-lived because government costs for retirement and health care are poised to surge in the coming decade. Spending on Social Security will rise 67 percent to $1.414 trillion in 2023 from $848 billion this year, while spending on programs including Medicare and Medicaid will almost double to $1.808 trillion in 2023, estimates from the Congressional Budget Office released in May show.

Debt Recovery

Bonds in Europe's most indebted nations are recovering from the region's sovereign debt crisis, with 10-year yields from Greece to Ireland sinking last week to the lowest since at least 2010.

The average yield to maturity on bonds from Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain fell to an average 2.44 percent on March 5, the lowest in the history of the euro area, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. That's down from more than 9.5 percent in 2011, when the region was rocked by concern nations may struggle to service their debt.

Source:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-10/debt-exceeds-100-trillion-as-governments-binge.html

10 March 2014 - 下一个不可忽视的事件：印度需求上升推高金价

Posted: 10 Mar 2014 06:04 PM PDT

From:http://finance.eastday.com/m/20140310/u1a7970551.html

2014年3月10日 08:26 来源:中国经济网选稿:周浩

目前情况

自去年8月以来，印度政府收紧了入口黄金的限制，规定20%的入口黄金必须以珠宝形式出口，导致黄金入口的数量跌至之前的30%，这种情况持续至去年10月。之后黄金入口量升至38吨，之后的入口量也差不多。市场原本预期2013年的印度黄金入口量会达到1,200吨，但最终只有825吨，比预期低了接近400吨。

放宽限制

若印度政府在三月底财政年度结束时(即是印度总统大选的七日前)放宽黄金限制(我们认为可能性极大)，那么印度主要的黄金来源— 伦敦市场的黄金需求将会大涨。这会否足以带动金价攀升?看起来应该会是这样，除非市场出现其他因素影响。

政府收紧黄金入口限制的一部分原因在于抑制经常账户赤字。限制措施实行后，官方数字上的赤字的确大幅减少。但若政府能在3月底放宽入口限制，将可为政府争取更多选票，因此政府放宽限制的诱因很大。

增加走私

然而，若政府只是轻微放宽入口，那便不足以提高需求，因为政府自2013年初便针对黄金征收极高税率。印度的黄金入口税达到15%。黄金税率高企导致黄金走私猖獗。据估计，非法入口印度的黄金数量达到250吨，甚至更多。若将官方的黄金入口量加上250吨的走私黄金，那么比市场原本预期的1,200吨只差了150吨。

若政府将黄金入口税降低至5%或更低，非法入口黄金的诱因便会大降。这会否能够阻止走私活动?不能，因为黄金短缺的情况依然存在。降低税率只会导致黄金一家在市场供应短缺期间上升，市面上的金价依然会高于非法入口的黄金，因此走私活动依然会继续。

经常帐户赤字并没有真的下跌

印度政府继续实行黄金限制的一大好处便是走私黄金的成本并不会计算在经常账户赤字的官方数据中，因此虽然数据表三面上显示下跌，但实际上却并非如此。

第二点是，黄金限制实施后，黄金入口数量只能满足市面上约10%的需求。政府无疑是遭到当头棒喝，因此支持维持黄金入口限制的力矩似乎不大。

与政府在合法入口黄金所得的额外利润来说，黄金限制的不得人心似乎更加重要。随着印度即将在4月7日举行大选，预期政府将会大幅放宽黄金限制，从而赢得更多选票。

放宽限制后会入口多少黄金?对金价又有什么影响?

放宽限制会对如何影响黄金数量?我们相信对伦敦市场的黄金需求将会上升150吨至200吨。这个数量是否足以推高金价?你一般认为不会，但一想到亚洲的黄金需求正不断增加，导致供求水平仅处于刚刚平衡的状态。即使需求增加200吨，即目前的黄金需求会每周增加4吨，但全球的黄金供应接近每周84吨，因此黄金供求的天平不会大幅倾斜。总括而言，入口黄金数量上升对金价不会造成太大影响，但将会影响市场的供求平衡，尤其是印度和中国的黄金需求正稳步上升。若入口的黄金数量要能够完全满足印度投资者的需求，那么2014年印度投资者的黄金需求便会达到至少1,300吨。

为满足需求，我们需要更多的黄金供应，但到时黄金便不会是目前的价位。请谨记，去年美国额外供应的1,300吨黄金有可能会在2014 年耗尽。以下是我们的结论：

印度放宽黄金入口税和限制的确会令金价上升，实际入口的黄金数量将会大幅上升。

Source:http://finance.eastday.com/m/20140310/u1a7970551.html

10 March 2014 - A Few Reasons To Be Bullish On Gold

Posted: 10 Mar 2014 05:59 PM PDT

From:http://seekingalpha.com/article/2076553-a-few-reasons-to-be-bullish-on-gold

Mar. 9, 2014 7:14 AM

Summary

Gold has been the best performing asset year-to-date.

China and Russia continue to amass huge quantities of physical gold.

Banks that are short gold are being forced to close their positions due to Fed taper resulting in a short squeeze.

The U.S. currency is the reserve currency mostly because of the petrodollar standard.

Russia has threatened to leave the petrodollar standard and dump its Treasury holdings due to the current events in the Ukraine.

There have been several geopolitical developments over the past few months which lend significant support to the arguments of gold bulls. The market has begun to recognize some of these developments as evidenced by gold being the best performing asset this year. However, Wall Street largely disagrees as evidenced by a recent Bank of America (BAC) recommendation to sell gold. Wall Street's pessimism appears to be poorly placed in my view, given these recent developments. Three of these developments will be the primary focus of this article.

Many gold bulls are well aware of the fact that China and India have been stockpiling gold in recent years. The two countries have been doing it in different ways, however. China's central bank has been purchasing physical gold, although the official numbers say otherwise. Around the end of January, the People's Bank of China stated that its official gold reserves remained unchanged over the past five years at 33.89 million troy ounces. I, for one, do not believe this official figure and there is evidence that points toward the country actually increasing its gold holdings over the past five years. India, meanwhile, has centuries of tradition surrounding gold. Its people are the biggest consumers of gold on the planet, with families buying gold as often as possible, even among the poorest citizens. This is possibly due to the traditional Indian distrust of banks and paper money (at least according to a gold analyst in the linked article). Families also traditionally give gold to one another at weddings, and families begin to accumulate gold for this purpose as soon as their first daughter is born. According to the earlier linked Zero Hedge article, the Indian government has been enacting policies to attempt to curtail the country's massive gold imports, but it is unlikely that these efforts will succeed over longer time frames as it is extremely difficult to challenge centuries of tradition. The government's efforts have been succeeding over the short term, however. According to the linked article at Zero Hedge, the Indian people have begun resorting to smuggling gold through Pakistan and on airplanes to meet their demands for the metal. The government's efforts to reduce gold imports have clearly resulted in pent up demand and this demand is likely to result in a surge of Indian gold purchases once these policies are reversed (as some Indian politicians are pushing for).

Source:http://seekingalpha.com/article/2076553-a-few-reasons-to-be-bullish-on-gold

11 March 2014 - 透过黄金看全球经济

11 March 2014 - 透过黄金看全球经济

0 Comment for "11 March 2014 - 透过黄金看全球经济"

Popular Posts