Markets Critical Forecast Signals, <b>Gold Price</b> Explosion to Come <b>...</b> |
| Markets Critical Forecast Signals, <b>Gold Price</b> Explosion to Come <b>...</b> Posted: 31 Jan 2014 03:46 AM PST By: DeepCaster_LLC
Sinclair's claim is correct, but the Markets' recent Negative Reaction to Argentina's Devaluation and Turkey's Massive Rate Increase provides us one Superb Forecasting Signal. Indeed, so far in 2014 the Markets have provided us with several Superb Forecast Signals in Key Sectors. "Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria."John Templeton John Templeton's wise observation is Relevant given the Markets' Euphoria on January 30, and that Euphoria provide yet another "Signal". But the Euphoria and the Risks and The Key Signals they provide Increase almost Daily. Indeed, (as if "Bail in" Threats to retirement and other accounts were not real enough already) we have earlier warned about the U.S. Government encouraging/forcing Citizen to "Invest" in depreciating U.S. Treasuries whose yield is well below the Real Inflation Rate.. Well, Consider President Obama's State of the Union "…the offer that the President of the United States floated last night… …his new "MyRA" program. And the aim is simple – dupe unwitting Americans to plow their retirement savings into the US government's shrinking coffers." "IRA Confiscation: it's happening" Simon Black, Sovereign Man, 1/29/14 This and other Signals provide us a Road Map for highly likely future performance for certain Key Sectors. Indeed, one Sector is Signaling it is ready to Reverse VERY SOON and make a very Major Move. Consider what the Signals tell us about the Sectors we cover. We have a Buy Reco. aimed at Profiting from it posted on our website. Every Investment or Trading Decision necessarily implies that two prior forecasts have been made: 1.) that the future economic and financial environment will be conducive to success and 2.) that the particular Investment or Trade is likely to be profitable in that environment. Thus Quality Forecasting is essential to Investment and Trading Success. We should be grateful. The Friday, January 24, 2014 Equities sell-off was not so much about China's weak Manufacturing survey, or the ongoing mixed earnings season, or the prospect of continued tapering (though those were factors). Rather it had more to do with concern over how much Stress China would allow in its Shadow Banking System. China Credit Trust warned Investors that a 3 Billion Renminbi Trust Product might not be repaid when it matures January 31. China Credit is a Shadow Bank, a lender outside the Official Banking Sector. And many other Chinese Shadow Banks have looming Default Risk. Loans by China's Shadow Banks are estimated to total some $3 Trillion – fully one third of the Credit outstanding in China. And Defaults in That System could ripple throughout China and the World. And since China, along with the USA, is widely regarded as an Engine of Future Growth, if it sneezes the whole world get an Economic Cold. This is probably why a Mysterious Entity (read Bank of China) just stepped in to guarantee much but not all of China's Credit Trust's Debt. As the World's second largest Economy and Massive Resource Consumer, a Sputtering China would have Ramifications throughout virtually every sector. Therefore note well that China's manufacturing showed its first contraction in six months – yet another Critical Forecast Signal. Jim Sinclair's is thus correct to claim that "U.S. Major markets will Implode, if Emerging Markets Implode." Indeed, our Mid and Long Term Forecasts for a Major Market Crash in 2014 have been thus Far spot-on Correct. Last week's 600 Point drop in the Dow is the First Major Harbinger of The Great Crash we have been forecasting for Months. We are just seeing The Beginning of The Beginning. Of course, Crashes very rarely occur all at once, which is one of several reasons we expect a short-lived Rally to begin in the next few days. In Bear Markets one must get in and out quickly to accommodate the Multiple Sharp Reversals. In sum, regarding Equities in general, the maxim: "Buy and Hold rarely works anymore" will be proven true in 2014 once again. Thus we reiterate: Given the Negative Fundamentals and Technicals, e.g. the Equities rising Bearish wedge and the Negative Divergence between the NYSE A/D line and stock prices, a Major Move Down of The Great Crash could begin at any time. Indeed we recently recommended buying puts in one subsector because we expect it to Crash before the others, and very soon. Regarding Gold as Safe Haven with Great Profit Potential during a Crash, consider that one Necessary Condition we earlier indicated for Gold's Rallying is one or more Exogenous Events which emphasize its Importance as The Safe Haven Currency. Last week we got several -- China's Shadow Banks, heightened Risks reflected in the Equities market Mini-Crash, and Emerging Markets Currency Weakness including a Collapse of Argentina's Peso. So, mid and long-term Gold is headed for $3000 and eventually much higher, as we forecast, and Notwithstanding ongoing Cartel (Note 1) Attempts at Price Suppression. Very short term the Precious Metals Markets will continue to be Tricky. The Physical Shortage is just too Critical. And Sonia Ghandi, head of India's (the World's 2nd largest Importer) Congress party recently criticized the Indian Governments Persecution of Gold Merchants via Multiple Tariffs. Moreover, Billionaire Eric Sprott recently demonstrated the Central Banks can not successfully continue their Gold Price Suppression Throughout 2014, because they are running out of Sufficient Physical Supplies. Consider Jim Brown's perceptive comments at Option Investor "Don't look now but the physical gold shortage is growing. Everyone knows that JP Morgan is one of the biggest gold holders on the planet. They store gold for themselves and others. On Thursday JPM reported the single largest withdrawal in history at -321,500 ounces. Actually that was a tie with December 13th, 2012 when exactly 321,500 ounces were also withdrawn. Registered god in JPM vaults has fallen to the lowest level in history at 87,000 ounces. Registered gold at all Comex warehouses has hit a new low at 400,000 ounces. Comex claims there is a huge 92 owners per registered ounce today. Registered ounces are available for delivery to settle futures contracts. In other words the registered ounces are all this is backing up the existing futures contracts. Since the majority of futures contracts are never held until the delivery date there are tens of thousands more contracts than actual gold. If everyone suddenly began delivery of the gold referenced by the futures contracts we would be in serious trouble. "On January 17th there were roughly 500,000 registered ounces. At that time there were 111.6 owners per ounce. There are currently 41.309 million ounces being traced through futures contracts. This is 'paper gold' not real gold. Where else but America could we be trading 41 million ounces of futures against 500,000 registered ounces? Obviously if only a fraction of the holders of those futures contracts began demanding delivery the price of gold would be much higher. We are currently seeing all-time lows in registered gold and all-time highs in claims against that gold. What is wrong with this picture?" Option Investor And China's Imports are Massively Increasing. "China's 2013 gold imports from Hong Kong more than doubled from the previous year to reach a record of more than 1,000 tonnes as a sharp fall in prices led to unprecedented demand. China imported about 1,158.162 tonnes from Hong Kong, compared with 557.478 tonnes in 2012, overtaking India to become the world's biggest gold buyer." "China imports record gold volume from Hong Kong in 2013" Reuters, 1/27/14 The Foregoing are Harbingers of Key Sectors' impending major moves as well as the Gold Price Explosion to Come. Best regards, DEEPCASTER FORTRESS ASSETS LETTER DEEPCASTER HIGH POTENTIAL SPECULATOR Wealth Preservation Wealth Enhancement © 2013 Copyright DeepCaster LLC - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors. © 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.  |
| Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: Gold Lost $2.10 Today to Close at $1,240.10 Posted: 31 Jan 2014 02:55 PM PST Gold Price Close Today : 1,240.10 Gold Price Close 24-Jan-14 : 1,264.50 Change : -24.40 or -1.9% Silver Price Close Today : 19.105 Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.910 Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01541 Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 261.69 Dow in Gold Ounces : 12.659 Dow in Silver Ounces : 821.71 Dow Industrial : 15,698.85 S&P 500 : 1,782.59 US Dollar Index : 81.370 Platinum Price Close Today : 1,374.10 Palladium Price Close Today : 703.00 The GOLD PRICE lost $2.10 today to close at $1,240.10. Silver lost 6/10 cent to end on Comex at 1910.5c. The gold price closed lower this week than last, breaking a five week winning streak. Also stopped short of the 20 week moving average. Best I can say is that on the daily chart gold remains above its 50 DMA ($1,235.41). Frankly, I can't parse this divergence between silver and GOLD PRICES. Which is right, the stronger gold price or the weaker silver price? Gold's MACD is about to flash a sell signal, so maybe gold will catch up with silver. The SILVER PRICE also closed lower on a weekly basis, down three of the last six weeks, and the last two weeks running. Today's silver low came at 1907c, and really doesn't tell us much after yesterday's close. Any break below 1897c will carry silver lower. Next week gold needs to hold on above $1,210.00. Platinum and palladium are tying an anchor around gold's ankles so they need to turn up, too, before gold can rally. Looking at the weekly scorecard forces me to ask whether the stock market's dive means that the peak we have seen is the final one, marking a 300 year top. I'm thinking. I'll let y'all know. Picture in precious metals has not yet cleared. US dollar index has resumed rising. Let's talk hard and fast today. Stocks bounce yesterday was probably engineered by the NGM, since they lost yesterday's gains and then some today. Milestone comes when the Dow crosses below its 200 DMA (15,466) -- and stays there. Same marker for the S&P500 is 1706.44. Today the Dow scraped off another 149.76 (0.94%) to end at 15,698.85. S&P500 gave back 11.6 (0.65%) to 1,782.59. Both silver and gold prices fell today but stocks fell more, pulling down the Dow measured in metals. Dow in gold ended the day at 12.66 oz, down 0.67% Dow in silver lost 7.62 oz (0.92%) to 821.07%. Still above 20 and 50 DMA, reflecting silver's weakness against gold. US dollar index jumped 53 basis points yesterday, and another 18 (0.22%) to 81.37 today. This brings it back to the 200 DMA at 81.51. Indicators have turned up, so maybe the dollar can breach that 200 DMA this time. Euro looks puking sick. Gapped down two days running, lost another 0.49% today to $1.3489. Yen resumed its rise, up 0.68% to 98.01 cents/Y100. Y'all enjoy your weekend! Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. |
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