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14 November 2013 - India may lose its crown as world's largest Gold consumer to China
14 November 2013 - 外媒：2013年中国可能增加620公吨黄金 10年内超美国
14 November 2013 - Yellen Says Economy Performing ‘Far Short’ of Potential
13 November 2013 - 此时不买黄金恐追悔莫及
13 November 2013 - U.S. Mint’s Silver-Coin Sales Reach Annual Record

14 November 2013 - India may lose its crown as world's largest Gold consumer to China

Posted: 14 Nov 2013 02:53 AM PST

From:http://www.commodityonline.com/news/india-may-lose-its-crown-as-worlds-largest-gold-consumer-to-china-57014-3-57015.html?

NEW DELHI (Commodity Online): India may lose its position as the world's largest gold consumer to China due steep decline in gold imports amid recent decline in purchasing as a result of import restrictions imposed by the government on gold imports to cut its current account deficit.

"The restrictions introduced by the Indian government on importing gold through official channels had the intended effect of substantially supressing demand, with total gold consumption in India standing at 148 tons in Q3, compared to 310 tons in Q2 of this year," said the World Gold Council in its latest Gold Demand Trends report, which covers the period July-September 2013.

The council further said in its report that, the global recycling of gold fell 11% compared to the same quarter in 2012, in India the recycling figure increased more than five fold to 61 tons.

However, government regulations in India are dampening demand figures. India recorded a 32% decline in consumer demand compared to the same quarter last year. However year to date, demand remains robust, up 19% compared to the first three quarters of 2012, following the surge in demand sparked by two price falls earlier in 2013.

Meanwhile, gold demand was particularly strong in China, where the figure reached 164 tons, a rise of 29% compared to with the same period last year. Total Chinese consumer demand was 210 tons in Q3 2013, a rise of 18% compared to the same period last year, the council said.

Reserve Bank of India Governor, Raghuram Rajan said on Wednesday that India's current account deficit in 2013-14 would be about $ 56 billion, less than 3% of GDP and $ 32 billion less than last year.

"I am especially happy about the 13.5% increase in dollar exports since last October, the reduction in imports by 14.5% and dramatic reduction in the trade deficit by 48%. Our estimate is that the Current Account Deficit (CAD) for this year will be about $ 56 billion, less than 3% of GDP and $ 32 billion less than last year," he said.

Gold import restrictions may have supported for the above statement.

Last year, India imported over 847 tons of gold but new restrictions on gold imports may bring down this figure drastically, analysts said. Festival demand has weakened due to higher prices and lower imports but consumer preferences are changing to platinum, diamond jewellery and light weight gold jewellery, reports said.

Standard & Poor's Rating Services in its recent analysis has affirmed the 'BBB-' long term and 'A-3' short-term unsolicited sovereign credit ratings on India while maintaining a negative outlook on long term ratings. S&P has indicated that rating may be lowered to speculative grade if the new government that comes into power in 2014 proves incapable of reversing India's low economic growth.

Source:http://www.commodityonline.com/news/india-may-lose-its-crown-as-worlds-largest-gold-consumer-to-china-57014-3-57015.html?

14 November 2013 - 外媒：2013年中国可能增加620公吨黄金 10年内超美国

Posted: 14 Nov 2013 02:47 AM PST

From:http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2013/11/14152916149898.shtml

中国数据研究分析师Kenneth Hoffmann以及Andrew Cosgrove周三（11月13日）表示，预计中国央行上半年已经秘密购入了300公吨黄金储备，甚至更多，如果中国继续维持当前的购金步伐，很可能在未来10年内赶超美国，进一步接近"去美国化"的目标。

　　据外媒此前预计，2013年中国央行可能增加约620公吨黄金储备，如果今年剩余时间中国际金价继续下跌，该数值还可能进一步上升。

　　中国央行自2009年起就再也没有更新其黄金储备的变化。有分析师预计中国央行很可能已分离出一个独立账户用来购买黄金储备，以规避国际货币基金组织（IMF）的调查，等待时机成熟再将这部分储备转移入官方黄金储备中，或许也可能是处于某种政治目的而这样做。

　　该分析师还称，"回顾2009年我们可以看出，当时中国央行公布其黄金储备从5年前的600公吨一下子跃升至1054公吨，增幅令人吃惊。加之今年国际金价大跌，该央行很可能会大幅展开购金行动。"

　　新华社在之前报道中称，"第二次世界大战后，美国成为全球最强大的国家，从那时起该国就在打造战后世界秩序，但通过将金融风险转移到海外等，美国并没有担负起负责任大国的义务，而是滥用其超级大国的地位，让整个世界更加混乱。所有国家，无论大小，无分贫富，都能在平等的基础上得到保护，他们的重要利益都会得到尊重。最终应该建起一个去美国化的世界。"

　　为什么中国需要不断增加黄金储备？因为无论是中国还是其它国家，他们都认为人民币若想要与美元抗衡，中国央行拥有黄金储备必须超过美国。据最新数据显示，美国官方的黄金储备为8133.5公吨。此前外媒曾表示，若中国维持当前的购金步伐，相信在10年内就能赶超美国，甚至更快。

　　眼下正是中国新一届领导班子上任的第一年，而且中国现任国家主席习近平似乎尤其关注市场，这符合新华社此前提出"去美国化"的导向。外媒相信在习近平执政的时期，中国黄金储备将出现大规模上涨，以此达到"去美国化"的最终目的。

　　另外，中国拥有庞大的经常帐盈余来补充更多的黄金储备，增速可能比一些分析师此前预计的要快得多，特别是当中国开始认识到黄金储备将打开"去美国化"道路的时候。目前外国仅能凭借从香港每月进口至大陆的黄金规模数据中估测中国央行可能的黄金储备数值。

Source:http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2013/11/14152916149898.shtml

14 November 2013 - Yellen Says Economy Performing ‘Far Short’ of Potential

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 06:32 PM PST

From:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-13/yellen-says-economy-performing-far-short-of-potential.html

Janet Yellen, vice chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, after her nomination to be chair of the Federal Reserve, on Capitol Hill in Washington on Nov. 7.

Janet Yellen, nominated to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, said the economy and labor market are performing "far short of their potential" and must improve before the Fed can begin reducing monetary stimulus.

"A strong recovery will ultimately enable the Fed to reduce its monetary accommodation and reliance on unconventional policy tools such as asset purchases," Yellen, the Fed's vice chairman, said in testimony prepared for her nomination hearing tomorrow before the Senate Banking Committee. "I believe that supporting the recovery today is the surest path to returning to a more normal approach to monetary policy."

The remarks show Yellen is committed to the central bank's strategy of attempting to boost the economy and lower 7.3 percent unemployment, more than four years after the economy began to recover from the longest and deepest recession since the Great Depression. She also signaled support for capital and liquidity rules to help reduce the perception that some banks are too big to fail.

"Her approach is let's do more QE now to get the job done faster," said Laura Rosner, a U.S. economist at BNP Paribas SA in New York and a former researcher at the New York Fed, referring to the quantitative easing bond purchase program. "Yellen is repeating her commitment to getting the job done."

In three pages of prepared remarks, Yellen said unemployment is "still too high, reflecting a labor market and economy performing far short of their potential" and that inflation is "expected" to remain below the Fed's 2 percent goal. She also highlighted areas where the economy has improved, saying housing "seems to have turned a corner" and the auto industry has made an "impressive comeback," she said.

Bond Yields

Equity futures advanced and government bond yields decreased on Yellen's comments, released after the close of U.S. exchanges. Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in December climbed 0.1 percent to 1,779.6 at 5:08 p.m. in New York. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell 0.07 percentage point to 2.7 percent.

Yellen in her testimony publicly voiced her views for the first time in seven months on the unprecedented monetary stimulus that she's supported and that some lawmakers have used to justify voting against her. The hearing is scheduled to start at 10 a.m. in Washington.

She also said that the Fed has "made progress in promoting a strong and stable financial system, but here, too, important work lies ahead."

Liquidity Rules

Capital and liquidity rules, as well as "strong supervision," are important tools to regulate the largest banks, Yellen said. "In writing new rules, however, the Fed should continue to limit the regulatory burden for community banks and smaller institutions, taking into account their distinct role and contributions."

The U.S. central bank is imposing higher capital and liquidity standards on the biggest banks as required by the Dodd Frank Act, and examining how banks fare in a crisis through its annual stress test.

"It's a note from their well-played songbook," said Joseph Engelhard, senior vice president at Capital Alpha Partners LLC in Washington. "There is an implicit recognition that too-big-to-fail exists," even though the Fed has "the tools to deal with it."

Yellen, 67, was nominated last month by President Barack Obama to succeed Ben S. Bernanke, whose term at the central bank expires Jan. 31.

Dire Outcome

In her remarks, Yellen said "the past six years have been challenging for our nation and difficult for many Americans," crediting Bernanke for averting an even more dire outcome.

"The effects were severe, but they could have been far worse," Yellen said. "Under the wise and skillful leadership of Chairman Bernanke, the Fed helped stabilize the financial system, arrest the steep fall in the economy and restart growth."

The banking committee, consisting of 12 Democrats and 10 Republicans, will vote at a later date on whether to advance Yellen's nomination to the full Senate. She'll need the support of at least 60 senators to win confirmation.

Tim Johnson, chairman of the banking committee and a Democrat from South Dakota, said he is "excited to cast my vote to confirm her as the first woman to serve as chair of the Federal Reserve, and when we vote on the nomination, I urge my colleagues to do the same," he said in remarks prepared for the hearing.

Opposed Yellen

Four of the committee's Republicans, including Idaho Senator Mike Crapo, the senior member, opposed Yellen when she was considered for Fed vice chairman in 2010.

"I still have concerns, which were the concerns behind my original vote on her original nomination, about her support of the quantitative easing and the entire direction the bank has been going for the last few years," Crapo said in an interview last week. He has not committed to how he will vote this time.

The other banking committee Republicans who previously opposed Yellen are Alabama's Richard Shelby, Louisiana's David Vitter and Tennessee's Bob Corker. She was supported in 2010 by Nebraska Senator Mike Johanns, a Republican. None of the panel's Democrats have said they'll oppose her nomination.

Yellen's testimony comes at a critical moment for monetary policy. The Federal Open Market Committee, which she is poised to lead, is considering whether to begin slowing its $85 billion monthly bond purchase program, which is pushing the Fed's assets toward a record $4 trillion.

Elevated Joblessness

The nation's jobless rate has exceeded 7 percent for more than four years since the end of the longest recession since the Great Depression, even as the Fed presses on with an unprecedented program to keep interest rates low. The Fed's target rate has been held near zero since December 2008.

Financial markets have closely followed the debate within the Fed over when to wind down its bond buying. Speculation that the Fed would begin to taper its bond buying helped push 30-year mortgage rates to a two-year high of 4.58 percent in August, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to a two-year high of 3 percent in September. The average mortgage rate was 4.16 percent as of Nov. 7.

Yellen's Speeches

Yellen has refrained from publicly engaging in the asset purchase debate. She stopped giving speeches once she was under consideration for the top job. Her last public address, on regulation, was delivered June 2. She has not given a speech on monetary policy since April 16.

Last month, when President Barack Obama announced her nomination, Yellen said more needs to be done to strengthen the nation's economic recovery.

"While we have made progress, we have farther to go," she said Oct. 9. "The mandate of the Federal Reserve is to serve all the American people, and too many Americans still can't find a job and worry how they will pay their bills and provide for their families."

If confirmed, Yellen will lead the Fed's efforts to finish implementation of the most sweeping overhaul of financial regulation since the 1930s. Rules on proprietary trading and bank capital are pending.

U.S. financial regulators are also trying to ensure that a failure at one of the largest banks won't threaten to trigger an economic collapse, requiring taxpayer support to prop up the bank. The Dodd-Frank Act requires banks to write plans on how they would wind operations down, and empowers the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to reorganize a failing bank while imposing losses on shareholders and creditors.

Source:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-13/yellen-says-economy-performing-far-short-of-potential.html

13 November 2013 - 此时不买黄金恐追悔莫及

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 06:29 PM PST

From:http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2013/11/13152716141411.shtml

作为世界第二大经济体，中国的经济对世界而言举足轻重。中国总理李克强曾说，中国的增长必须至少维持在7.2%，才能将失业率控制在4%。

　　目前中国的全部贷款供给超过16.4万亿美元（100万亿人民币），是中国经济总量的两倍。在全球经济仍然低迷的情况下，中国的进口也遭遇困难。

　　在经济放缓外加通胀的背景下，人们会选择购买资产来进行保值。黄金就是一大选择，这也被认为是中国黄金需求大增的原因之一。

　　对中国经济而言，最大的问题是控制失业率，因此在宽松的货币政策下，通胀将很难避免。那么购买黄金等资产的需求就会一直存在。

　　在全球经济维持目前低迷水平，中国经济继续经历变化的背景下，或许只有黄金的价值是不会变的。

　　美国的债务如果继续增长，很多国家都会对其偿还债务的能力产生怀疑。中国拥有数万亿美债。从多样化的角度而言，中国开始关注美债以外别的选择是无可厚非的，黄金显然是其中一个。

　　专家认为，金价下跌时，应当看长期。每一天或者一季度的价格变动会是很有波动性的，看的应该是实物黄金需求。

　　包括中国在内的很多国家都在目前金价下跌的情况下加速增持黄金。对长期投资者而言，专家认为应当紧跟中国，在低价时买入黄金。中国的黄金需求被认为在未来十年会继续增加。

Source:http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2013/11/13152716141411.shtml

13 November 2013 - U.S. Mint’s Silver-Coin Sales Reach Annual Record

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 06:21 PM PST

From:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-12/u-s-mint-s-silver-coin-sales-reach-annual-record.html

Sales of American Eagle silver coins by the U.S. Mint since the start of the year surpassed the annual record as the futures market rallied from the lowest in 34 months.

Sales reached almost 40.2 million ounces, the mint said yesterday in an e-mail. Authorized purchasers bought the full weekly allocation of 500,000 coins, boosting the total this year above the previous all-time high of almost 39.9 million ounces in 2011, it said.

"Strong demand for silver coins should be a supporting factor for the price," said Daniel Briesemann, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. Physical demand has limited the price drop in 2013, during which silver has retreated 31 percent, he said.

Surging sales of bars, jewelry and coins helped to support gold and silver prices this year after they plunged into a bear market in April as some investors lost faith in precious metals as a store of value, amid a U.S. equity rally and concern the Federal Reserve will taper its stimulus program. Sales of gold coins may rise to a record this year, Richard Peterson, the acting director of the mint, said in June.

Silver futures on the Comex in New York are heading for the biggest drop since 1981. Gold futures have dropped 24 percent, heading for the first annual decline since 2000.

Retail Demand

"The retail demand has remained very strong especially for silver," Scott Carter, the chief executive officer of Los Angeles-based Lear Capital, a precious-metals dealer, said in a telephone interview. "The lower prices and uncertainty because of the government shutdown made silver very attractive" for coin buyers, he said.

Silver futures advanced 14 percent to $20.765 an ounce from $18.17 on June 28, when the metal touched the lowest since Aug. 24, 2010. Futures trading volumes today were 72 percent higher than the average for the past 100 days at this time, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Imports by China, the world's second-biggest silver user, advanced each month from May to August. The U.S. is the top consumer of the metal.

In January, the mint's sales reached an all-time monthly high of 7.498 million ounces. The U.S. Mint suspended sales of silver coins for more than a week in January because of a lack of inventory. The mint plans to issue its last weekly allocation of 2013 coins on Dec. 9.

Sales Halt

The halt in sales next month may push up the premium that wholesale dealers charge to customers, Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago, said in a telephone interview.

The premium, around 18 percent last month, "could jump again as the demand remains buoyant and supplies will shrink," he said. The premium surged to 25 percent in April, the highest since 2008, according to Richard Nachbar, a coin dealer based in Williamsville, New York.

Silver futures reached a 31-year high of $49.845 on April 25, 2011, and gold rose to a record $1,923.70 an ounce on Sept. 6, 2011.

Source:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-12/u-s-mint-s-silver-coin-sales-reach-annual-record.html