Gold Trend Feb 07/2014 |
| Posted: 06 Feb 2014 09:07 PM PST  Follow The XM Bull Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1293-1333 to neutralize Intermediate Term ~ Bullish/NEUTRAL – 1272 DID NOT GET TAKEN OUT ON THE CLOSE yet and thus intermediate term did not go full bullish. Short Term ~ BULLISH – we need a close above 1272 to keep uptrend going. We must hold 1222 on a closing basis otherwise the trend goes to neutral/bearish. Initial Resistance 1262-1272 2nd tier 1284-1294 Initial Support 1243-1253 and 2nd tier 1222-1232 Last update listed 1262-1272 as resistance and the high was 1267. Support was listed at 1243--1253 and the low was 1252.50. NOTE: Of historical significance – it was 50 years ago today that the Beatles landed in New York. On Sunday night it will be 50 years since the first Ed Sullivan Show. The lowest crime statistics ever recorded on an hourly basis in USA still stand today for that one hour. No wonder---everyone was home watching. Overview We discussed last night that the stock market was due for a bounce at the end of the report in the "What Next" portion of the report and it delivered on Thursday with a 188 point rise. The other factor is that our 10 year interest rate watch on the weekly update reached the medium term moving averages on Tuesday reaching the 2.5-2.6 area and bonds dropped on Thursday keeping the rates above the medium term moving averages. Interest rates have either bottomed and will now move higher or this will just be a bounce that will lead to a low in early March. For now expect the 10 year to hold 2.5-2.6 going into mid next week and then we'll see. As for the stock market, here's the deal. You've all heard of the January barometer. Historically, if we now make a new low in February beyond this week, then odds favor a down year. If we avoid a new low from here, then the stock market can come roaring back. But make no mistake, we remain at the biggest long term resistance in the stock market (see SPY chart on the weekly update) where we have the crossing of two very long term lines and price touching both in December. The weekly update has discussed the potential for up to a 3 to 5 month correction since early December. For now, any NEW LOW next week in the stock market will add to that potential. If we hold the lows of this week, then expect a bounce back up to test resistance in the 1770-1800 area. Gold once again made a bid for a breakout and this time reached 1267.50 before it was once again knocked down to our key number we discussed at the beginning of the week (1255) Price meandered all around that number once again all day long. The rumor is a lot of buy stops will be triggered above 1270-1280 and thus the longer it keeps getting knocked down in such a fashion the more believable it becomes. Perhaps the most bullish aspect of gold is the chart below where you can see the tremendous drawdown in registered gold at the COMEX and at the moment there is only 1 ounce of gold in inventory for every 85 ounces long in the market. It was almost 120 before the February contract rollover into April. This alone does not mean that there will be a default at the COMEX but it does highlight the tight supply of gold at the moment. Certainly a lot more ounces could be made available at any time but still, this is a very low inventory of which the likes have not been seen for at least the last 10 years. It's something to keep watch on. Rumors are that JPM has been snapping up the inventory. On Friday we start with the NFP PAYROLL report. While we don't know what the outcome will be (who does anymore) there are two things to consider. Tomorrow is bench mark revisions for last year in employment, which of course impacts last month's number and tomorrow's number. And then there's this; 9 of the last 10 January's have seen negative surprises. That in itself does not mean we won't have a good number and if the GOONS have any say in the matter, they could tweak that number to the moon if they so choose. The price of gold and its outcome most likely rests on the number. A bad number and gold should spike up. A good one could send it plummeting to earth as the FINAL DAY OF THE CHINESE New Year and a closed physical market is upon us. The fact that the control boyz were not able to sell off gold will become a HUGE PLUS ---- next week. If we get by Monday/Tuesday without a selloff in gold it will yield a second clue that the low in gold from December should hold and that a July/August type of rally is still unfolding. Gold Short TermLast night's quote --- "It's still going to take a close above 1267-1272 to favor higher" remains in play as we enter Friday. (Note the Thursday high was 1267.50undefinedright at this price point listed above). Resistance remains tough in the 1275-1280 if we get above 1285-1295 there then the potential to move towards 1322-1333 will be favored. Support is 1243-1253 and then 1220-1230. It looks like the NFP report on Friday is going to be the price mover of the week. At this point either way can still go due to the simple fact that someone doesn't want gold above 1272 on a closing basis. That has been our key weekly number to close above for a few weeks and we have yet to see it. Look at the spikes on the chart that keep getting resisted at 1267-1272. Also look at the price action at 1255. We've been there all week. Support is the 1245-1255 area and then 1228-1235 and the key support 1220-1222. As we enter Friday we remain in the up channel that began on Dec 31st/Jan 2nd and the short term trend remains up. Any close below 1222 and the situation reverses. Get ready for Friday and the NFP as there's usually a price spike.  What Next? China is closed this week so be careful--- as we are on the last day. We've got to get beyond this 1255 area and we've been there since the Monday close. Also the NFP payroll report is out on Friday. Bottom Line The bottom line is someone is not allowing gold to close above 1275-1280. If gold were to close above 1272 on Friday it would favor 1322-1333. IT COMES DOWN TO THE NFP ON FRIDAY and what the control boyz decide to do if anything before China returns next week. $20 FREE TO PARTICIPATE IN THE XM CONTEST ARENA Open Real Account Go to the XM Contest Arena Register a Nickname and get $20 Free -> http://tinyurl.com/q72y3uf All Profits Withdrawable Free $20 Credit Added Automatically Non Stop Contests to Join Open a Real Account (you can use your existing account if you already have one) Login to the XM Members Area Register your unique Nickname and password Enter the Contest Arena $500,000 IN CASH PRIZES WAIT FOR YOU -> http://tinyurl.com/q72y3uf Keep Calm & Follow The Bull     The Gold Price & Trend Predictions blog made for gold traders to find good news and to provide the traders with daily price predictions and to learn how to trade the Forex Market for free.Just pure learning! It will be of great fun.You can judge by yourself the quality of information that I will be giving you in my blog. Welcome to my blog where you can learn how to trade the Forex Market for free.The material is all created by myself and not copied from anywhere. There is a lot yet to come since there is a lot that you need to learn, and there is a lot that I need to share with you! So please just be patient – it will be worth it.You can judge by yourself the quality of information that I will be giving you . So just go now and start learning! Below is a quick guide of how this website is structured, so you can find what you are looking for fast. Remember that I update the pages every day so either check back often. In this section you will find quite a long article of what Forex is all about. If you are a beginner, this is a must read. It explains in detail what is required to start trading, what you should do and not, typical traps to avoid as a beginner and a lot of valuable information which you as a beginner must digest and learn prior opening any Forex account with real money. In this section you will find your road map on how to become a real successful trader couple of months as from today. In this section you will know the 3 major areas – Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis and Trading Physcology. In this section you will find a gold mine of information about the technicalities of Forex. We will start from the very basics covering all the Forex jargon words which you will be hearing every day and we will be taking you up to the level required to finally learn to trade like a pro – technical analysis, also found in this section. In this section you will see the tips that will help you stay away from crap forex products, which unfortunately the Forex market is invaded with. This section has a very detailed article on how to avoid being scammed in this ruthless world of Forex. I will explain in detail six tips that you need to look for prior purchasing any products. Even though most of the time you may claim your money back,the time wasted is never returned. You should have used that time to learn how to trade! Read it!    YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. Do your own due diligence. No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. King Regards |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Follow The XM Bull To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 | |
0 Comment for "Gold Trend Feb 07/2014"