<b>Gold Price</b> Might Cut Through Down Trend this Week |
- <b>Gold Price</b> Might Cut Through Down Trend this Week
- <b>Gold Price</b> Exploding In Emerging Markets [SPDR Gold Trust (ETF <b>...</b>
- <b>Gold Price</b> Analysis- Jan. 31, 2014 - DailyForex.com
- <b>Gold Price</b> is Going Higher :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets <b>...</b>
- <b>GOLD Price</b> Rally Correction Within Downtrend :: The Market Oracle <b>...</b>
| <b>Gold Price</b> Might Cut Through Down Trend this Week Posted: 04 Feb 2014 07:50 PM PST Gold Price Close Today : 1251.70 Change : -8.70 or -0.69% Silver Price Close Today : 19.402 Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.514 Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01550 Platinum Price Close Today : 1371.80 Palladium Price Close Today : 699.90 S&P 500 : 1,755.20 Dow In GOLD$ : $255.08 Dow in GOLD oz : 12.339 Dow in SILVER oz : 796.06 Dow Industrial : 15,445.24 US Dollar Index : 81.240 The GOLD PRICE dropped as low as $1,246.80 and the 20 DMA ($1,247.44) but came right back to close Comex at $1,251.70. Then it gained $3.20 in the aftermarket. Silver gained an infinitesimal 1.3 cents to 1940.2c.
This is an even sided triangle so could break either way, but the gold price remains above its 20 and 50 DMAs and has been steadily advancing, recovering every time it is knocked back. Reasonable to expect it might cut through that post-April downtrend this week, barring a close below $1237.50. Since December began the SILVER PRICE has traded sideways between 2050c and 1889c, with one intraday low at 1872c. It has just bounced off that roughly 1890 support again, and now needs to cross 1950c and get past 2050c. Other reasons to look for the gold price rally to continue: the GOLD/SILVER RATIO appears to have peaked and begun dropping. The Gold/Philadelphia Bank Index, which reflects investor confidence and risk appetite, has been falling since December ended.
Every once in a while I check the numbers just to see if things are as bad as I suspect they are. In the last eight days the Japanese Nikkei 225 stock index has lost 10.8%. Reckon that Abe-nomix has hit a little hiccup. Since 21 January when the present waterslide began, the Dow has lost 969.2 points or 5.9%. Today the Dow bounced up 72.44 (0.47%) to 15,445.24. S&P500 clawed back 13.31 (0.76%) to 1,755.20. Where does that leave stocks? Launched off a cliff, lifted on a tiny updraft, with no ledge in sight. Dow cut through its 200 DMA yesterday, bounced back to it today, but has little reason to stop here. More likely place is 14,760. But of course I could be fooled, and if the Dow turns, climbs, and crosses 16,000 y'all will know I was. Otherwise, bet on gravity. The gold price fell $8.70 at Comex close today and stocks rose, but by the end of the day the Dow in Gold had risen only 0.7% to 12.32 oz (G$254.68 gold dollars). Dow in silver fell 0.51% to 792.47 oz, and is trying to break down. In case y'all have forgotten: Dow in Metals down, good for metals; Dow in Metals up, bad for metals. These indicators show the value of stocks in metals, whether metals are gaining or losing value against stocks. Since mid-September the US dollar index has been jailed between 81.50 and 79.70, with one spike to 79.06 in October. It rises, it falls, it makes neither progress nor regress. Today it gained 10 basis points to 81.24. Unless it can jump over 81.60 or falls below 79.50, it's just jawing. The euro, however, declineth in earnest. Down another 0.1% today to $1.3515. If the euro's chart were your EKG, you'd be scrambling for the phone to make sure your burial insurance was up to date. Hard to see why it won't sink to $1.3300 at least. The radioactive Yen, on the other hand, is rallying in earnest, from a 94.83 c/Y100 low in January to 98.31 today, down 0.54% for the day but aiming for the 200 DMA at 100.1. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.  | ||||
| <b>Gold Price</b> Exploding In Emerging Markets [SPDR Gold Trust (ETF <b>...</b> Posted: 04 Feb 2014 05:24 AM PST Mainstream economists and mainstream media remain convinced that the economy and markets are in full recovery mode. Along the same lines, gold is unanimously expected to decline in the year(s) head. One of the most recent appearances of that kind was the 2014 outlook of IMF economic counselor, Olivier Blanchard, who explained last week that global growth would average 3.7% in 2014. Ironically, the recovery story, based on the central bank premise that they can create wealth by simply exploding their balance sheets, seems as solid as a "house of cards." Past week Thursday and Friday, several emerging markets suffered from an economic earthquake, especially in their currency markets, which resulted in losses in most developed world markets not seen since 6 months. The Yen and the Swiss Franc were considered a safe haven, just like gold (PHYS) and US Treasury bonds (TLT). Bloomberg says this is the worst selloff in emerging-market currencies in five years, revealing the impact from the Federal Reserve's tapering of monetary stimulus. "Investors are losing confidence in some of the biggest developing nations, extending the currency-market rout triggered last year when the Fed first signaled it would scale back stimulus. While Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa were the engines of global growth following the financial crisis in 2008, emerging markets now pose a threat to world financial stability." Argentina, Venezuela and Turkey have been hit hard. Argentine's Peso and Turkish Lira lost significant value against other major currencies in the past week. They recovered slightly today. In Argentina, the central bank pared dollar sales aimed at propping up the peso to preserve international reserves that have fallen to a seven-year low. "The central bank said it would lift two-year-old currency controls and allow the purchase of dollars for savings starting next week. […] The government told today it is not intervening in the peso's decline, allowing the market, which is mostly closed to buyers of dollars, to adjust prices. It was not a devaluation induced by the state. For the lovers of free markets, supply and demand was expressed in the capital markets yesterday." The Turkish central bank tried an unscheduled intervention in the market to stop the lira from falling to record lows, something they haven't done since two years. "Investors are speculating the central bank's efforts to prop up the lira by burning through foreign-exchange reserves will prove futile without raising interest rates." The loss in purchasing power for people holding Argentine's Peso is astonishing:
The loss in value of the Turkish Lira (TRYS) is not as dramatic as the Peso, but it is still very bad:
The interesting part for us, gold enthusiasts, is the price of gold in the slaughtered currencies (prices on the close of January 31st):
This chart shows the price of gold in USD (yellow line) and in Peso (blue line). The black line is the currency exchange rate Peso against the USD. Chart courtesy: Sharelynx. (click to enlarge) Interestingly, the explosion of the gold price in Peso and Lira has pushed the gold price higher in the Western currencies. That is an important evolution, as it indicates what gold really stands for: a monetary asset. One should note that gold has gone higher even without inflation fears. This could be one of those catalysts that could break the downtrend in gold in major currencies. The underlying reason for the emerging market turmoil is said to be attributed to capital flight out of those markets. Directly linked to that is the tapering fear from the US Federal Reserve. What is the importance of this for Western investors? There could be a counter intuitive answer to that question. Basically, up until today, there was a narrative surrounding the Federal Reserve who got credit for the positive economic results after having stopped the implosion of the financial system in 2009. However, there is still no empirical evidence that the plan has worked, because the world is still on the monetary infusion. We should note that the present type of situation, characterized by tapering in a global fiat based monetary system with huge amounts of debt, is unique in human history. As John Mauldin pointed out this week, if the narrative about central planning changes, indicating that the present monetary experiment was the wrong answer to the problem, there could be very nasty effects, especially out of the emerging markets. This is why (courtesy of Ben Hunt):
Nobody knows exactly how a change in the narrative will play out, but given the effects we are seeing in the emerging markets currency crisis, it seems likely that a flight out of risk assets into gold is very likely. Our belief is that, once the central bank narrative changes, the major currencies will likely be hit by a trust crisis. That is one of the most reasonable catalysts for dollar gold and euro gold. Our belief is that a loss of trust in central banking could materialize in the next 12 to 24 months. Disclosure: I am long PHYS. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. | ||||
| <b>Gold Price</b> Analysis- Jan. 31, 2014 - DailyForex.com Posted: 31 Jan 2014 01:10 AM PST
By: DailyForex.com The XAU/USD pair fell sharply and give back all of the gains made in the previous session as the American dollar strengthened across the board. Weakening data from China and global growth concerns contributed to gold's losses as well. Since Chinese gold consumption plays an important role in this market, disappointing numbers out of China puts pressure on prices. For the last couple of days, I have been telling about the significance of the Ichimoku clouds on the daily chart and I still think the market will go back and forth until we leave this area completely. In order to regain their strength and march towards the 1255 level, the bulls will have to push the pair above 1245. At this point, only a close below the 1255 resistance level would make me think that the market is going to tackle the 1268 level again. There are many forms of resistance (such as the top of the cloud and Fibonacci 38.2) lining up together in the 1268 - 1278 area, so it will be a tough nut to crack. To the downside, the bears will have to drag the XAU/USD pair below the 1235 level to increase pressure. On the daily chart, the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud currently sits just above the 1225 support level (1227.50) and as you can see the market spent plenty of time around there since December. If this support gives way, I think the 1213 level may be tested soon after. | ||||
| <b>Gold Price</b> is Going Higher :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets <b>...</b> Posted: 12 Jan 2014 02:21 AM PST By: Thomas_Clayton
When I first started doing this thirteen months ago, I could not get the MACD to coincide with the peaks and bottoms with the defaulted parameters given. So I set the MACD aside and worked with the Stoch RSI, Slow Stoch, %B, and got them to synchronize by manipulating the parameters with Fibonacci numbers which seemed to work ok. It was not perfect. Then I went back to the MACD which mean Moving Average Convergence Divergence which are variable moving averages set by the Technical Analyst. MACD seems to measure on a graph the Area between the Fast and the Slow Moving Averages which reflects the Maximum and Minimum Are in between the lines as we learned in High School Algebra II. So I went back to the MACD and set the parameters to Fibonacci numbers 8,13,5 and 13,21,8 etc and depending on the Time Frames from one mnute to weekly, I finally got all the Indicators to synchronize precisely and accurately. Then by sitting back from my screen about 1 meter away, I could see certain correlations and configurations which seemed to repeat themselves and were Consistently accurate. Here the MACD which I almost discarded, has become the Dominant, Number One Indicator which I watch. I found even though the Stoch RSI, Slow Stoch gave a Buy Signal with respective up crosses at 0.2 and 20, why was the Price still moving Down? This Lost Lots of $$ for some of my Followers, which I feel very bad about. Then I could see the MACD lines moving Up but why was the Price dropping. The Key was, the MACD lines had to move Above Zero on the MACD Indicator for the Price to start an Uptrend and this usually coincided with what I call the Surge Up and conversely the Surge Down. Bear with me, and you will see with the charts I have selected as Examples. And these will be Charts which prove that Gold is starting an Uptrend with the MACD lines breaking above Zero on the Shorter Time frames from 1min to 60min, and the Daily MACD is approaching Zero which, with follow through Buying, will cross above Zero and start a longer term Uptrend. This is really the only way you can measure this phenomenon is with Indicators and with the Correct Interpetation. I can sit here all day and put out Charts, but without the Precise Interpetation, they are Worthless and can give the observer the exact wrong direction to take. Back in the late 1960s and early 70s, I worked for Dean Witter as an Asst V.P. in Commodity Trading. We had very rudimentary computers and no software to support the above discussion. If you wanted a Chart, we did it manually after the close. John Murphy has produced everything which was lacking to make an Intelligent Technical Analysis of Price Movement whether it be stocks, commodities, interest rates, bonds etc. I congratulate, John Murphy and stockcharts.com for providing us with what I call the WEAPONS OF MASSIVE WEALTH. So see for yourself. I welcome feedback for this gives me many times a problem to solve and to enhance the results of my technical analysis. See for yourself and I welcome feedback at stemsmexico@gmail.com. From here South of the Border, I cannot visualize living in the U.S. ever again with Federal Reserve and the Dummies in Congress and Puppet Presidents. Maybe not Dummies, but do and vote how they are told to stay in office, line their bank accounts with wealth and not go the way of Pres. Abraham Lincoln and JFK and Bobby. Also, 80% of the food in the U.S. is tainted with Glyphosphate due to the Roundup Ready Monsanto seeds. You are eating Toxic Food. Please your opinion and feedback. I have more Info. Your great grandkids may be sterilized. Billy Gates is one of Them, New World Order Bilderbergs, One Percenter Elites. Cause for Alarm. Wealth is not worth this i.e. when your name is Rothschild and have to hide within your castle not able to walk in public. Oh Well, whatever works, More Power (pun) To You. GOLD IS GOING HIGHER and if isn't, see below if Gold & Silver are trending Down. Doesn't matter, Who cares? AS LONG AS WE MAKE MONEY..RIGHT? NUGT, DUST, USLV and DSLV..just Follow my Charts and go with the Trend. THESE CHART ARE LEVERAGED TIMES 3. DO NOT BE WRONG! These are teaching charts to show you How. Many Followers tell me, "This is the first time I have made money in the Market" or "I am making tons of $Money." THIS MAKES ME FEEL REAL GOOD. "Share and it will return packed down and overflowing." So my Pastor used to tell me. I am Sharing now waiting for the Return Overflowing bit. My primary concern is that You make lots of Money. Good Luck and God Bless $GOLD WEEKLY CHART Pg 15. SIX YEARS stockcharts.com, PublicChartList, EasyMoney Clayton Tom,stemsmexico@gmail.com Daily Chart from Sept 2012, Historical High, to Now, Intermediate Bottom GDX 15 min Pg 21 at stockcharts.com, PublicChartLists, Easy$$ Clayton Tom stemsmexico@gmail.com NUGT 15min IS THE 3X FUNCTION OF GDX gold miners Volume Candle format Buy signal was before the close of the Trading Session the Day Before..PRECISE see Green Arrows. Front Runners. Join The Manipulaters give you a chance DUST IS THE ANTITHESIS OF NUGT.. if GOLD is trending Down, best to be Long Dust..15min Chart An Alert Trader will make very Profitiable Trades just using these Charts, Pg 17, stockcharts.com PublicChartList, Easy Money Clayton Tom AS GOLD GOES, SILVER GOES. USLV X 3 15min There is a lot here. Study This Chart Pg 18, stockcharts.com, Public Chart List, Easy $$, Clayton Tom Ok What if Silver is Trending Down: DSLV 15m Pg 18 stockcharts.com, Public Chart List, Easy $$, ClaytonTom About the Author, Using my system at stockcharts.com, Public Chart Lists, Easy $$, by Clayton Tom, you will see the rest of my work in reference to Gold, Silver, NUGT, DUST, USLV, DSLV, etc SPX, $VIX, VXX, UVXY, etc UPRO, SPXU, ERX, ERY, DIG, DUG, FAS, FAZ, TNA, TZA, DRN, DRV and Winners of 2013, i.e. Pg 6, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, PCLN, NFLX, FB, HLF (Hello, Mr Ackman) etc. You may ask me to do an Opinion based strictly on the Indicators I use. stemsmexico@gmail.com. I am an ex-broker, Asst. V.P. in Commodities with Dean Witter back in the late 1960s and early 70s and went through the exact training course as depicted in the movie, "Seeking Happyness" with Will Smith. I am also a retired Pharmacist via Cal Berkeley, U.C. School of Pharmaceutical Science and the mandatory Courses in Math has enabled me to understand the Derivation of the Indicators used to make this almost a perfect Technical means of precisely spotting Tops and Bottoms as a function of the Price Fluctuations of Stocks, ETFs, Currencies, Commodities and Financials Bond Instruments. I also lack just one semester for my MBA in Marketing at Univ. of Cal . SF State University. Retired after 25 years in Retail Pharmacy, rated as the most Competive Independent Pharmacy Chain in the Nation by the trade journal Pharmacy Times, 1995. Was the first Pharmacy in the U.S. to promote Generic Drugs in the early 1970s. By Thomas Clayton © 2013 Copyright Thomas Clayton - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors. © 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. | ||||
| <b>GOLD Price</b> Rally Correction Within Downtrend :: The Market Oracle <b>...</b> Posted: 05 Feb 2014 09:57 AM PST By: Gregor_Horvat
GOLD Daily Elliott Wave Analysis GOLD Four HourGold found a support in the last few trading days at the lower side of a corrective channel, at 1237 where we see a completed three wave decline from the top, now labeled as wave (b). As such, we suspect that new highs are underway with wave (c) that may complete a second zigzag around 1280. GOLD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis GOLD One HourGOLD is still trapped between 1231 bearish and 1270 bullish zone, but because of only three wave fall from 1278 we expect a continuation higher, back to the highs; ideally from current levels while 1239 holds. GOLD 1h Elliott Wave Analysis Written by www.ew-forecast.com | Try our 7 Days Free Trial Here Ew-forecast.com is providing advanced technical analysis for the financial markets (Forex, Gold, Oil & S&P) with method called Elliott Wave Principle. We help traders who are interested in Elliott Wave theory to understand it correctly. We are doing our best to explain our view and bias as simple as possible with educational goal, because knowledge itself is power. Gregor is based in Slovenia and has been in Forex market since 2003. His approach to the markets is mainly technical. He uses a lot of different methods when analyzing the markets; from candlestick patterns, MA, technical indicators etc. His specialty however is Elliott Wave Theory which could be very helpful to traders. © 2014 Copyright Gregor Horvat - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors. © 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. |
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