Posted: 26 Feb 2014 05:05 PM PST

From:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-25/credit-agricole-says-easy-money-shorting-gold-over-as-china-buys.html

Gold demand in China will be sustained as incomes expand in the largest consuming nation, supporting prices above $1,000 and extending bullion's flow from west to east, said Credit Agricole SA's private-banking unit.

"The market hasn't quite fathomed the scale of annual Chinese buying just because of the wealth effect in China over the next coming years," said Davis Hall, global head of foreign exchange and precious metals advisory. "I don't think gold's going to come back to $1,000, like many people are suggesting, because I'm seeing what's happening in China."

Bullion advanced 11 percent this year on rising consumption in Asia and as emerging-market turmoil and signs the U.S. recovery may be faltering boosted haven demand. China overtook India as the largest user last year as the biggest price drop in more than three decades spurred purchases, the World Gold Council said last week. Holdings in exchange-traded products stabilized this month after a record contraction last year.

"The easy money from being net short is probably behind us," Hall said in an interview in Singapore on Feb. 24, referring to bets on lower prices. "I'm not bullish at current levels. Gold is an opportunistic trade. I'd much prefer to buy if it comes down to $1,250."

Gold, which is headed for the first back-to-back monthly increase since the two-month advance through August, traded at $1,343.96 an ounce at 7:07 a.m. in London after rising to $1,345.46, the highest price since Oct. 30. Bullion slumped 28 percent in 2013 to end a 12-year rally as the U.S. Federal Reserve prepared to trim monthly bond-buying that boosted asset prices while failing to stoke inflation.

Goldman's Outlook

Hall's view counters expectations from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Westpac Banking Corp. that bullion will probably extend declines in 2014. Gold will end the year at $1,050 an ounce, Goldman said in a Feb. 12 report, restating a forecast. Last year, Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research, said there was a risk gold may decline to less than $1,000 in 2014.

Westpac's Justin Smirk, the second most-accurate forecaster tracked by Bloomberg over the past two years, forecast bullion at $1,011 in December, a Feb. 20 report showed. Prices will drop as the U.S. recovers and the dollar strengthens, Smirk wrote.

At the Fed's January meeting, where asset purchases were reduced for a second time, policy makers signaled that they won't let weaker economic reports interrupt plans to taper stimulus, according to minutes released Feb. 19. A few officials said it might be appropriate to raise the federal funds rate "relatively soon," the minutes showed. The main lending rate has been held at zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008.

Bond Yields

The cuts to stimulus and expectation for bond yields to rise will probably keep gold below $1,400 an ounce, said Hall, who has studied precious-metals markets for 12 years.

Consumption in China rose 32 percent to a record 1,065.8 metric tons last year, according to the producer-funded council. Prices would have declined to as low as $850 or $900 last year had consumers in China not bought the metal, said Hall.

China's economy, the largest after the U.S., expanded to $8.23 trillion in 2012 from $1.45 trillion in 2002, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The expansion lifted incomes in the world's most-populous nation.

The flow of bullion from west to east was highlighted by the World Gold Council in November, citing increased activity at refiners in Switzerland that were recasting bullion into the higher-purity, smaller-sized bars preferred by Asian buyers. Switzerland sent more than 80 percent of its gold and silver bullion and coin exports to Asia last month, the Swiss Federal Customs Administration said on Feb. 20 in the first breakdown of the gold-trade data since 1980.

Strong Demand

Underlying physical bullion demand remains strong, Coutts & Co., the private-banking division of Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, said in a note yesterday. The unit sees $1,250 an ounce as opportunity for purchases, Gary Dugan, chief investment officer for Asia and the Middle East, wrote in the note.

As China's economy slowed amid government efforts to curb excessive credit and rein in the property sector, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 6.8 percent last year. That trailed the 30 percent surge in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and a 3.3 percent advance in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index.

"Nothing clears the mind more than the absence of alternatives," said Hall at Credit Agricole. "The west doesn't want gold but the east is just starting to gain this appetite and I don't think it's going to change."

Source:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-25/credit-agricole-says-easy-money-shorting-gold-over-as-china-buys.html

26 February 2014 - Gold Rises to 17-Week High on Signs U.s. Economy Sputters

Posted: 26 Feb 2014 05:03 PM PST

From:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-25/gold-near-16-week-high-as-rally-seen-overdone-on-taper-outlook.html

Gold futures climbed to the highest in almost 17 weeks on speculation that a sputtering U.S. economy will boost demand for the metal as an alternative investment.

U.S. consumer confidence fell more than forecast in February from January, an index from the New York-based Conference Board showed today. Home prices rose at a slower pace in the 12 months that ended in December, according to a separate report. Russia's deputy finance minister said Ukraine faces a "high" chance of defaulting on its sovereign debt. Gold has gained 12 percent this year.

"People are concerned about U.S. economic growth, and that's why many people have turned bullish" on the metal as a haven, Adam Klopfenstein, a senior market strategist at Archer Financial Services in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. "Gold is also finding some support from the ongoing political turmoil" in Ukraine, he said.

Gold futures for April delivery rose 0.4 percent to settle at $1,342.70 an ounce at 1:48 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Earlier, the price reached $1,343.60, the highest for a most-active contract since Oct. 30.

This month, gold has jumped 8.3 percent, heading for the biggest monthly gain in two years and the first consecutive advance since August. The metal rallied even as the Federal Reserve lowered its bond-buying program by $10 billion a month in both January and February, reducing purchases to $65 billion.

Gold surged 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the central bank pumped more than $2 trillion into the financial system.

2013 Slump

Last year, gold plunged 28 percent, the most since 1981. Some investors lost faith in the metal amid a global equity rally and muted U.S. inflation.

The 14-day relative-strength index for futures topped 70 for the third straight session, a signal that prices may be set to decline.

"Even though technicals are strong, there are resistance levels on the near horizon -- the psychological $1,350 being one such barrier, and overbought RSI signals now pushing above the 70 level for the first time since last August suggesting a correction is likely," Tim Gardiner, a managing director at TD Securities Inc. in New York, said in a report.

Silver futures for May delivery fell 0.4 percent to $22.001 an ounce on the Comex. Yesterday, the price reached $22.215, the highest since Oct. 31.

Palladium futures for June delivery dropped 0.9 percent to $738.55 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest drop since Jan. 27.

Platinum futures for April delivery gained 0.1 percent to $1,442.60 an ounce. Earlier, the metal reached $1,445, the highest since Jan. 24.

Source:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-25/gold-near-16-week-high-as-rally-seen-overdone-on-taper-outlook.html

26 February 2014 - 罗素：天价收购预示恶性通胀将至黄金是保障

Posted: 26 Feb 2014 04:58 PM PST

From:http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2014/02/26163216753189.shtml

道氏理论大师、资深投资者罗素（Richard Russell）最近警告称，"将会出现非常可怕的恶性通胀，并且会影响到全球主要市场，包括股票、黄金、白银等资产。"

罗素指出，"我所注意的是美国5%的有钱人和外国人花钱的手笔，这可能会成为将来发生的事情。Facebook为购买Whatsapp花了190亿美元的天价，这是不是未来价格的暗示？"

"如果这是真的，那么整个股票市场都会走高，要折去未来恶性通胀的价格。如果恶性通胀真的成了我们的未来，那么有一个有形资产，就是黄金，它会成为最好的保障。"

"如果恶性通胀发生，那么很快就会看到股市新高，并且黄金和白银现在的价格会显得非常便宜。"

Source:http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2014/02/26163216753189.shtml

26 February 2014 - Credit Agricole Says Easy Money Shorting Gold Over on China

26 February 2014 - Credit Agricole Says Easy Money Shorting Gold Over on China

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