6 February 2014 - BlackRock’s Hambro on gold in 2014 sees price stability ahead

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6 February 2014 - BlackRock’s Hambro on gold in 2014 sees price stability ahead Posted: 06 Feb 2014 02:32 AM PST From:http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=227986&sn=Detail CAPE TOWN (MINEWEB) - Evy Hambro, Fund Manager of BlackRock's Gold & General Fund, who is visiting Cape Town for the Mining Indaba conference, had some pertinent comments to make on the prospects for gold over the next 12 months. As might be expected from a Fund Manager who looks after a portfolio largely comprised of gold stocks, he is perhaps more bullish on the yellow metal's prospects than many of the bank analysts whose downbeat views seem to have achieved considerable prominence since the beginning of the year. "In the near term a strengthening U.S. economy and the withdrawal of quantitative easing could act as headwinds to the gold price." Says Hambro. "However, we expect much of this has already been factored into markets and the gold price should find some stability over coming months. From this point we believe there is the potential for the gold price to trend higher as strong retail demand, ongoing central bank demand and the consequences of significant levels of monetary easing across the globe contribute to inflationary pressures, which make real assets such as gold attractive to investors." Hambro's views do at least coincide to an extent with those of the writer and it is perhaps significant in this respect that the second announced stage of tapering by the Fed has so far had little adverse impact on the gold price, even at a time when many feel the price might crash due to a lack of Chinese buying as the Lunar New Year holiday curtails trade. Hambro comments that selling out of the big gold ETFs – GLD in particular – put the gold price under considerable pressure in the West, despite Chinese buying in particular being extremely strong. Indeed total Chinese purchases of gold have been well in excess of that offloaded from the ETFs. But, as the size of the ETF pot diminishes the potential volume of sales has to fall – and in fact the GLD ETF has actually been taking back in a little gold over the past couple of weeks, but it is probably still too early to gauge if this represents a reversal in trend or just a blip in the recent downward spiral.  Hambro feels that if ETF sales do continue at anywhere near the rate of the past two years then gold is unlikely to regain any positive momentum, but if the reverse occurs and the recent pattern of purchases into the GLD ETF continues, and Chinese purchases come back strongly after the New Year holiday, then we should see an upwards price trajectory. On gold stocks, Hambro notes that the pattern of cost cutting coupled with capex cuts, given where valuations and margins currently stand he would expect gold equities to exhibit a greater beta to gold in the future. They should thus be well placed to deliver a strong performance in this environment. Hambro is probably still in the minority though with many analysts following the Goldman Sachs lead and looking to falls to $1,050 or less, but to this observer his arguments seem logical – and perhaps even quite conservative. If the gold ETF sales do cease and demand remains high then there would only seem to be one way for the metal price to go as shortages of tradeable metal develop in the West. The golden seesaw may be due for a further upwards lift. Source:http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=227986&sn=Detail

6 February 2014 - 实物金价迈入2时代激发购买热情 社科院仍看空 Posted: 06 Feb 2014 02:31 AM PST From:http://finance.sina.com.cn/china/jrxw/20140206/051818137839.shtml 本报记者 褚睿雅 经过1月份的爬坡过程，春节期间，黄金价格逐渐有了企稳的趋势。在消费市场上，节日的到来让黄金又闪耀了一回。纵然"钱途"未卜，也要"金"光闪闪过大年。而黄金投资者的目光都聚焦在本周五(2月7日)公布的美国非农就业数据上，若本月数据持续利好，美元料将因此受到提振走高，而黄金将受打压。 部分金饰迈入"2"时代 伴随着国际金价的一次次"跳水"，各大金店纷纷下调了黄金价格。无论是饰品黄金还是投资金条，大多已跌至300元/克以下，黄金价格全面迈入"2"时代。昨日，记者走访了杭城的部分黄金专柜，大部分黄金专柜的首饰金价格在每克275-285元之间，港资品牌的黄金饰品价格则在每克315元左右。销售人员表示，近期，黄金饰品价格短时间内出现迅速下跌的可能性不大。 不少黄金品牌的销售人员都告诉记者，这段时间的金饰价格比前段时间有所上涨，但仍然处于低位，所以买的客人比较多。"小件的黄金饰品比较受欢迎，因为克数轻，价格比较实惠，很多人买去拜年送礼，马年的吊坠尤其受欢迎。" 新华社的报道也指出，与往年不同，低价没有吸引到千克级的"土豪金"单，特别是自中央八项规定实施之后，卖得俏的都是小规格实物金。 明牌珠宝(23.91, -0.59, -2.41%)的销售人员罗先生表示，虽然他没有做详细的统计，但能感觉到今年春节期间比去年春节期间购买黄金首饰的顾客增加了许多。"这还得归功于2013年的黄金价格大跌，价格下来了，把大家的购买热情激发出来了。早几年大家可能是结婚的时候来买点黄金戴戴，但去年开始，很多人往家里囤黄金了，有好多顾客都是熟面孔，之前已经买过好些首饰的。" 业内人士分析认为，一是受元旦、春节送礼、压岁、婚庆等周期性刚需的推动；二是实物黄金的价格已经基本回落至让人满意的点位，特别是元旦以来金价小幅上涨，"买涨不买跌"的心态让很多原本在观望的消费者纷纷出手。"去年买贵了趁着便宜再买点""这么低的金价已经很久没出现了""囤点金迎新春"……在不少消费者看来，"以现在的价格购买黄金，买了就是赚了"。 "金马"成色有几何？ 从2013年过渡到2014年初，黄金走出了一波探底回升的反弹行情，不少投资者对此都心生希望——黄金的春天要来了。CPM Group贵金属分析师Jeff Christian 1月29日接受媒体采访时也表示，金价可能在2月初触及1280美元(每盎司，下同)甚至更高，而且涨势会维持至3月。Christian称，"相比起2月份，我认为金价更有可能在3月末上探1320美元。" 而中国社科院世界经济与政治所发布的《世界经济黄皮书》预计，未来一段时间内，全球黄金价格继续下降的可能性，显著大于反弹的可能性。包括高盛、瑞银、世元金行等多家国际投行和国内机构相继发布看空2014年金价的报告。 至于今年金价会不会创新低，上海黄金交易所专家顾问李骏认为，按照近期1180美元的低位来算，金价从1920美元下滑幅度已接近40%，差不多已经到了一个阶段性底部。也就是说，千二之下持有黄金的话，风险相对较小。 "从理财角度看，如果预测黄金价格还会下跌，投资者可以通过黄金T＋D以及黄金期货相反方向做空。"李骏说，但对于一般投资者而言，日常工作忙碌，没有足够时间经常关注世界黄金的价格波动，不愿意也无精力追求短期价差的利润，最好是投资实物金条。 世界黄金协会的投资研究主管Juan Carlos Artigas预计，出于投资多元化的需求，2014年全球投资者可能将资产配置的2%-10%调整为黄金资产，而当前这一配置比例仅有1%。 理财专家建议，在战略布局上，实物黄金仍应以长线投资为主，逐步建仓买进，优先选择中小规格的投资类金条，次之选择金币、题材型黄金制品，不必太过计较"底部"位置，以免急于获取收益而陷入短线投机的漩涡。 Source:http://finance.sina.com.cn/china/jrxw/20140206/051818137839.shtml

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