20 February 2014 - Silver Posts Longest Rally in 45 Years on Rising Haven Demand

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20 February 2014 - Silver Posts Longest Rally in 45 Years on Rising Haven Demand Posted: 20 Feb 2014 05:54 PM PST From:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-18/silver-heads-for-longest-rally-in-45-years-on-investment-demand.html Silver posted the longest rally in at least 45 years on demand for an investment alternative amid concerns that the global economy will falter. Today, reports showed U.S. homebuilder and New York manufacturing trailed estimates by analysts. The Bank of Japan boosted lending programs while sticking with a plan for unprecedented asset purchases to support a recovery. Commodities climbed to the highest in almost five months. Silver has gained 13 percent this year as demand for coins and jewelry surged. Holdings in exchanged-traded products backed by the metal climbed last year as the spot price tumbled 36 percent, the most since 1981, amid a U.S. equity rally to a record. Spot gold has advanced 9.6 percent this year, while the dollar has dropped against a basket of 10 major currencies. "The premium for gold and silver has increased as people are nervous about U.S. growth," David Meger, the director of metal trading at Vision Financial Markets in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. "The turmoil in the currency market has also pushed people toward precious metals." Silver for immediate delivery rose 1.1 percent to settle at $21.9348 an ounce at 5 p.m. New York time. The price climbed for the 13th straight session, the longest rally since at least 1968. Yesterday, the metal reached a nine-week high of $21.9791. On Feb. 14, silver closed above the 200-day moving for the first time in a year. 'Technical Buying' "It has broken the downtrend, so there is some technical buying," Meger said. Silver futures for March delivery rose 2.2 percent to settle at $21.898 on the Comex in New York. Trading more than doubled versus the average in the past 100 days, data compiled by Bloomberg shows. The exchange floor was closed yesterday for a public holiday. In the week ended Feb. 11, hedge funds turned bullish on silver with the net-long positions at 7,675 futures and options contracts, compared with 353 contracts in bearish wagers a week earlier, government data showed on Feb. 14. Analysts including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Groups Inc. forecast a slump in silver and gold this year. On Jan. 22, Morgan Stanley cut its 2014 forecast and predicted "more pain to come" for gold investors as investors shifted to equities. 'Grind Lower' Goldman analysts led by Jeffrey Currie, the head of commodities research in New York, said in a Feb. 12 report that gold will "grind lower" as the U.S. economy gains, reiterating a forecast for prices to reach $1,050 an ounce by the end of the year. Gold prices plunged 28 percent last year as some investors lost faith in precious metals as stores of value amid the equity rally, subdued inflation and speculation that the Federal Reserve would reduce monetary stimulus, boosting prospects for the dollar. Sales of silver coins by the U.S. Mint almost quadrupled in January to 4.78 million ounces from December. Today, spot gold reached $1,332.45, the highest since Oct. 31. "The strength in the gold market and physical buying has helped silver," Bill O'Neill, a partner at Logic Advisors in Upper Saddle River, New Jersey, said in a telephone interview. "Worries about slowing growth will crimp the industrial demand and probably put pressure on prices, so it still remains to be seen if the rally can be sustained." Source:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-18/silver-heads-for-longest-rally-in-45-years-on-investment-demand.html

20 February 2014 - 投机情绪快速回暖 白银中期上涨空间有望打开 Posted: 20 Feb 2014 05:52 PM PST From:http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20140220/11702063_0.shtml 春节之后，在投机情绪回暖及美元走弱等因素影响下，白银价格摆脱疲态再度成为商品市场反弹的"急先锋"，银市人气重新积聚，白银中期上涨空间有望打开。 弱势美元提振白银反弹 在经历了去年下半年的强势复苏之后，今年年初美国公布的各项经济数据表现每况愈下，包括美国零售数据和失业金申领数据在内，一系列经济指标都出现了较严重的倒退，天气因素虽然可能仍是指标不佳的主要原因，但持续的疲软让人们开始担心经济复苏背后的质量问题。受此影响，在美联储缩减QE后被市场寄予厚望的美元，不但未能重回强势，反而在年后跌跌不休，并一举跌破80.00关口。一方面避险情绪消退，资金自美元流出追逐更高收益；另一方面，现阶段强势美元难以配合美国经济复苏的节奏，在美国经济显著走强之前，美元指数偏弱振荡的可能性较大。白银此波强势反弹也一定程度上受到美元走弱的提振，银市的投机情绪也由之前的极度悲观快速回暖。 超宽松货币环境未发生实质改变 美联储中长期货币政策倾向仍然是贵金属价格的方向标，鉴于美国眼下的总体失业率水平已经降至6.6%，距离美联储承诺维持极低利率环境的失业率6.5%门槛仅咫尺之遥，美联储是否会在20日公布的会议纪要中对修订利率政策前景的状况有所提及，成为市场关注的焦点。鉴于此前美联储主席耶伦多次提及将尽可能久地维持宽松货币政策，美联储未来可能将引入更多经济指标以观察经济复苏及就业市场的好转。考虑到美国经济复苏仍存变数，年内美联储仍将维持超宽松货币环境。日央行近日宣布继续以每个月6万—8万亿日元的步伐购买日本国债，欧央行3月份仍有进一步降息可能，全球超宽松货币环境并未发生实质性改变，中期通胀抬头的风险仍然较大，金银价格重新走强的逻辑仍存。 空头回补助推银价反弹，ETF基金表现冷淡 从持仓方面来看，2月初以来，伴随着现货白银快速反弹，CFTC白银净多头寸自持仓低位6988手显著回升至12634手。其中，非商业空头头寸2月大幅减仓5688手，至28645手，降幅为16.56%，非商业多头基本持平，暗示空头获利回吐助力银价触底反弹。不过，白银ETF基金表现冷淡，iShares白银基金2月逆势减持64.22吨，至10030.84吨。EFT基金的冷淡表现令市场对白银反弹高度存疑。 白银中期反弹行情延续 技术上看，伦敦白银现货价格1月30日展开触底反弹，在消息面配合下强势突破20.60美元/盎司矩形整理平台上轨压力，近期价格在年线21.83美元/盎司附近高位振荡整理，技术形态转势迹象较为明显，价格形成三重底结构，并有望由日线级别反弹发展至周线级别反弹，上方压力可关注23.00美元/盎司及25.10美元/盎司。短期来看，价格连续反弹13个交易日累计涨幅较大，局部倾向于在22.00—21.30美元/盎司区域振荡整理以消化多头获利回吐压力，整理后再度走高概率较大。 综合来看，货币环境仍然宽松，美元再度走弱为白银迎来超跌反弹契机，白银价格突破多重压力后也已打开上涨空间，中期反弹有望进一步延续。 Source:http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20140220/11702063_0.shtml

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