13 February 2014 - 加特曼：黄金及原油还会继续上涨

13 February 2014 - 加特曼：黄金及原油还会继续上涨
13 February 2014 - 'Dama' women behind much of China's current gold demand
13 February 2014 - Gold: Asset, Cash or Both?
12 February 2014 - 覃维桓：美联储打压金价乏术
12 February 2014 - 未来10年是“中国大妈”的“黄金十年”

Posted: 13 Feb 2014 02:27 AM PST

From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-02-13/162104763.html

国际金价曾在2013年大跌28%，并录得30多年来最大的年度跌幅，但2014年至今金价已基本收回7%左右的跌幅。知名投资人、加特曼通讯社创始人加特曼(Dennis Gartman)周三(2月12日)在接受采访时表示，黄金还会继续上涨。

有趣的是加特曼去年是黄金空方大军的主力，进入2014年却一改此前的观点转而看多。

加特曼称，"本周和上周无论是美元、日元、欧元、英镑和澳元黄金都在接连突破关键阻力水平，表现十分抢眼，因此我认为当前看多黄金是必须的。"

加特曼认为黄金反弹的原因有以下几点：1)美联储将继续实施宽松货币政策；2)全球货币贬值；3)大宗商品价格已经触及底部；4)中国强势的实物金需求

加特曼补充道，"尽管农历春节已过，但中国方面的需求还是相当稳健，这的确有些出乎意料。同时数据还显示中国2013年的黄金需求同比跳涨了41%，相当令人振奋的数字。"

除了黄金之外，加特曼还预计原油价格还会继续上涨。周三WTI原油期货持续交投于100美元水平上方。

加特曼指出，当前WTI原油期货市场的期限结构已经出现现货溢价的情况，比如2014年3月WTI合约交投价格在100美元/桶附近，但投资者只需以78美元/桶的价格就可以买到2018年12月的合约。

原油市场出现现货溢价有多种可能性。其中之一是投资者预计未来油价会因为供应上升而下跌。其二也可能是商品短期需求的激增。

加特曼表示，"大宗商品交易员的黄金准则，就是千万不要在市场处于现货溢价状态时出售，因为这表明需求十分强劲。事实上随着页岩油的开发未来美国原油产量将大幅增加已是事实，但在这样的利空条件下油价还能继续上涨，这就足以说明一切。"

Source:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-02-13/162104763.html

13 February 2014 - 'Dama' women behind much of China's current gold demand

Posted: 13 Feb 2014 02:26 AM PST

From:http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=228898&sn=Detail

MUMBAI (MINEWEB) -

Massive gold purchases by Chinese `dama' investors - bargain-hunting, middle-aged women - may have propelled China past India as the largest gold consuming country in the world this year.

According to the Xinhua News Agency, the surge in gold demand seen in China was helped by frenzied purchases by these `damas', who were eager to chase cheap deals.

The Chinese language Shanghai Securities Journal too has credited `damas' with driving China's gold market and the 28% global fluctuation in gold prices over the past 12 months.

this group consisting mainly of married women between 40 and 60 years of age, grabbed the attention of the world for the first time in 2013. The Wall Street Journal specially created the term `dama' to showcase the urgency of the Chinese ladies in the gold market.

In the wake of the gold price slump in the international gold market, Chinese investors, mostly mothers, spent around 100 billion yuan to buy 300 tonnes of gold within 10 days.

Gold traders in Beijing's markets said many of the regular buyers are in their 50s and 60s and are desperate to invest, given that gold prices have fallen so sharply.

According to statistics released by the China Gold Association on February 12, China's gold consumption for the first time exceeded 1,000 tonnes to reach 1,176.4 tonnes in 2013, a year on year increase of 41.4%. Gold consumption in 2012 was 832.2 tonnes.

Data showed that even as the gold output and consumption in China have set new records, the gap between consumption and output has grown even wider. In the first three quarters of 2013, China's demand for gold totalled 779.6 tonnes, as compared with India's 714.7 tonnes, according to figures previously released by the World Gold Council.

Though the majority of China's rising demand for gold stems from jewellery and gold consumption, which rose by 43.5% and 56.6% last year respectively, the fall in gold prices stirred a spending spree among Chinese consumers.

In the second quarter of 2013, when global gold prices dropped from $1,600 to $1,400, frantic purchases by Chinese damas caused a high profile gold shortage. Again, in the fourth quarter of 2013, another buying frenzy by damas dramatically lifted the annual consumption level.

Incidentally in India, gold consumption dropped by 32% year on year during the third quarter of 2013, with the import restrictions imposed by the Indian government.

In China, more than 80% of gold jewellery is made from 24 carat gold. When international gold prices fell from an opening level of $1,676 to as low as $1,196 during the year, and experienced overall fluctuations of 28.63%, the worst in more than 30 years, the damas stepped in.

They lined up outside gold shops both in mainland China and in Hong Kong, to buy gold jewellery, gold coins and gold bars at record low prices.

Source:http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=228898&sn=Detail

13 February 2014 - Gold: Asset, Cash or Both?

Posted: 13 Feb 2014 02:24 AM PST

From:http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold-asset-cash-021220142

So we need to understand how gold will perform in these sets of conditions. Much has been written on gold being an inflation hedge but not so much on its value in deflation.

But gold is not so easy to slot into a pre-defined category like this. In history it has performed well in several other situations. In uncertainty, whether it has been in wartime, economic uncertainty or simply national uncertainty it has performed well. When confidence in currencies seeps away gold prices in those lands reflect the fall of the currency as it rises.

The major point we will describe in this article is that gold is both an asset and cash at times and will be so in the relatively near future!

What is not understood that well by the markets is that gold does cannot be defined as either an asset or as cash. If one does not understand what gold really is then we will misread gold's performance in the future. For the future we are looking at shows that some if not all the conditions we have just mentioned are headed our way soon.

It is therefore critical that we understand what gold really is.

In the developed world gold is seen either as an asset or a commodity as result of over 40 years of indoctrination by developed world's central banks through programs that have attempted to discredit it. In the last 15 years of last century these attempts succeeded as gold fell from $850 to $275 in 1999.

But then reality kicked in as the central banks of Europe, while carefully setting up a program of selling some gold, reaffirmed it as an important reserve asset. Since then the Basel Accord on banking has defined it as an asset in central banks as a Reserve Asset, and in commercial bank balance sheets as a Level 1 balance-sheet asset. In other institutional portfolios it is treated as a counter to other assets as a 'balancing' asset. In the hands of individual investors it is treated either as a source of either long-term or short-term profits or a long-term, financial-security-providing asset.

The world is divided into two halves when it comes to gold. In the developed world it is seen primarily as asset with even Ben Bernanke, in front of a Senate Committee, stating that gold was not money. As an asset it has been treated there as a counter to growth and to equities. That explains the performance of gold in the US over the last two years. The sell-off of gold from the US-based gold ETFs has described this perfectly. This has now halted.

When Alan Greenspan wrote his favorable, famous essay on gold well before he became the head of the Fed, he stated that "Gold is money, in extremis". What does that mean? It means that gold is money when times are extreme. When is that? In financial terms it means that it is money when government issued money [currencies] is not functioning as it should.

As we said at the outset, another condition that is "in extremis" is when confidence is lost in a currency by its users. Such extreme conditions come about in wars, currency wars, runaway inflation and runaway deflation. It happens when confidence in an economy and that nation's currency is lost, internationally, too.

We need to emphasize strongly that gold is across the world cash the same as currency, even when currencies are rejected as money. You can take a Peso, a Rand, a Euro to Mongolia and they will not recognize them as money. To those people they are, at best, some foreign government's paper IOU redeemable only in areas that recognize them. But take gold anywhere in the world it is money, even in Mongolia.

The major point you as the reader should take away from this article is that Gold is both an asset and cash. In good times it is an asset. In bad times it is cash. The functioning as one or the other depends on the times we have around us, both locally and internationally.

With the Yuan approaching full convertibility and the status of a global reserve currency, extreme monetary conditions lie just ahead. In such times we believe gold will facilitate global capital and payment exchanges. That's why China is buying as much as it can now. In time, we expect the rest of the world to take gold wherever and from whomever it can, including its citizens, so that their global monetary interchange is both secured and facilitated by gold in the future.

Source:http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold-asset-cash-021220142

12 February 2014 - 覃维桓：美联储打压金价乏术

Posted: 12 Feb 2014 05:03 PM PST

From:http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/20140211/135918173738.shtml

美联储已经难以大幅打压金价，即使其有能力让金价创出新低，也只会给多头提供买入的机会，而得不到任何好处。

自从德国要取回寄存在美国的300吨黄金(1292.30, 1.20, 0.09%)之后，美联储就憋足了劲要打压黄金，以便在低位把黄金收回来。黄金市场于2011年9月创下历史高位之后，在随后的一年多时间里下跌了300多美元，到2013年初金价还在1700美元/盎司之下徘徊。进入2013年，金价开始逐步回落，跌到了1500美元/盎司处的长期支撑位。但是，这种下跌离美联储的要求太远。4月初美联储召集十几家大银行开会，会后金价遭到疯狂打压，两天之内就下跌了270美元，创下30多年来的纪录。

但是，它们没有想到此番做空遭到了以中国大妈为代表的实金需求的有力阻击，金价出现反弹。不过，6月份它们再次打压，金价一度跌破1200美元/盎司。在此后半年里，金价虽然反弹了200多美元，但随后逐步走低，到年底再次跌到了1200美元/盎司之下。而且各大投行等机构都对2014年黄金走势看跌，大有"黑云压城城欲摧"之势。

但是，进入2014年以来，金价不但没有继续下跌，而且开始逐步走稳，掉头向上，显然形势已经发生了改变。

当前有若干因素预示金价可能已经到底：黄金股票指数XAU和HUI均已见底回升；纽约商品交易所黄金库存下降到历史低位；黄金交易所交易基金(ETF)持金量开始止跌回升；金价走势图走出双底形态，而且第二个底部虽然与前一个底部很接近，但指数平滑异同移动平均线(MACD)却明显高出许多，这种背离是明显的见底信号；目前金价已经接近黄金企业的成本价，难以大幅下跌；以中国为首的实金市场继续保持强劲需求，各国央行继续买入。

综上所述，美联储已经难以大幅打压金价，即使其有能力让金价创出新低，也只会给多头提供买入的机会，而得不到任何好处。

另一方面，不少人把金价下跌的希望寄托在美国经济全面好转、美元大幅上扬之上，但是几年来的美元走势告诉我们这只是幻想。虽然美联储已经开始缩减购债规模，紧缩货币宽松政策，但是各项经济数据显示，美国经济远没有恢复到金融危机之前的水平。

例如，反映国际贸易强度的波罗的海干散货运价指数，在2008年5月最高曾达到11793点，并在2008年12月创下低位663点。去年一年该指数在735点到2337点之间波动，目前大约在1700点附近，显示国际经济远没有恢复。

美联储缩减量化宽松政策(QE)规模，受影响最大的是美国股市。因为去年美国股市涨幅如此之大，完全是因为资金宽松，而并非经济腾飞。而美国股市如果大幅下跌，能否再度上涨就是问题。股市下跌必将把资金推向金市，所以缩减QE规模对金价的打压作用很有限。

如果空头继续在期货市场打压金价，由于库存有限，难免会出现违约。所以，近来期货市场没有再出现大幅打压的情况。

因此，美联储已经没有什么手段来打压金价了，虽然这并不等于黄金回到牛市，但是曙光就在前面。

Source:http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/20140211/135918173738.shtml

12 February 2014 - 未来10年是“中国大妈”的“黄金十年”

Posted: 12 Feb 2014 05:00 PM PST

From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-02-12/162062929.html

面对起起伏伏的金价走势，她们的策略就是涨也买，跌也买，不涨不跌还是买

最近看了一期央视的传家宝节目，很有感触：中国老百姓积聚、传承财富的能力太强了。他们手中的传家宝最低也有几十万元，上百万元是屡见不鲜，上千万元甚至过亿元的也不在少数。

由此笔者联想到最近几年闹得沸沸扬扬的"藏汇于民"。其实，对于中国人来讲，"藏金于民"才更符合我们的传统财富观。"藏汇于民"这种方法作为一种策略也许更合适。

央行官方网站最近更新的"黄金和外汇储备"报表显示，2013年全年的黄金储备维持在3389万盎司（即1054吨），并未如此前外媒所报道的那样出现激增；国家外汇储备则由年初的34100.61亿美元升至38213.15亿美元。而在"货币当局资产负债表"中，货币黄金同期也一直维持于此前669.84亿元人民币。

从官方公布的数据看，黄金储备确实维持在一个相对稳定的水平。但放眼民间，黄金消费则呈现一种波澜壮阔的景象。

中国黄金协会发布的数据显示，2013年中国黄金产量达到428.16吨，较2012年增长6.23%，使得中国连续7年成为全球第一大黄金产量国。2013年我国黄金消费量首次突破1000吨，达到1176.40吨，同比增长41.36%，而2012年全国黄金消费量832.18吨，同比增长9.35%。

由此可见，尽管中国黄金产量屡创新高，但产量与消费量间的缺口则越来越大。于是，中国顺理成章成为全球第一大黄金进口国。2013年，中国大陆从香港地区进口黄金1158吨，较2012年增长107%。在2011-2013年，香港累计向大陆净出口黄金约1930吨。

在2013年我国黄金消费构成中，首饰用金716.50吨，同比增长42.52%；金条用金375.73吨，同比增长56.57%；金币用金25.03吨，同比下降1.07%；工业用金48.74吨，同比下降0.23%；其他用金10.40吨，同比下降32.03%。由此可见，民间消费依旧是黄金消费的主力军。

正是因为中国大妈超强的黄金消费能力，才引发了外媒猜测中国黄金储备激增的报道。

在去年金价的剧烈波动中，中国大妈名扬四方。黄金首饰和金条需求猛增，与价格下跌后中国大妈毫无顾忌的抢购有很大关系。黄金首饰和金条消费量的猛增，说明整个居民的需求已经发生了重大变化，它们甚至已经成为亲朋好友之间礼尚往来的标的物。

专家认为，目前中国人均拥有的黄金还不足全球平均水平的五分之一，不足发达国家的十分之一。随着中国国民财富的急速增长，黄金消费的空间还非常大。未来的黄金消费可能会与10年前的汽车消费一样，出现一波井喷行情。在这个过程中，中国大妈将是绝对的主力军，她们将坚定不移地把"藏金于民"的思路贯彻到底；面对起起伏伏的金价走势，她们的策略就是涨也买，跌也买，不涨不跌还是买。未来10年将是中国大妈的"黄金十年"。

Source:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-02-12/162062929.html

13 February 2014 - 加特曼：黄金及原油还会继续上涨

13 February 2014 - 加特曼：黄金及原油还会继续上涨

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