Posted: 13 Dec 2013 09:26 AM PST

Gold Price Could Retest 1180 June Low Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Dec 13, 2013 - 06:26 PM GMT

Gold reversed sharply to the downside at the start of September, through the rising trend line of a corrective channel. As we know that's an important signal for a change in trend, which means that bearish price action is now back in view that could accelerate to the downside soon if we consider recent break of 1251 swing low that confirms a completed wave 2 and wave 3 underway to the lows.

From a larger perspective we believe that gold will continue to weaken, towards 1180 and to 1130 in the next few weeks.

Daily Gold Chart

On 4h Chart Gold has been trading higher since early December, but recovery was made only in three legs, labeled as a)-b)-c) on the chart. We know that three wave move is structure of a corrective price action that now appears completed after recent sharp fall from 1267. Decline is looking impulsive so we believe that is part of a larger downtrend.

Gold 4-Hour Chart

On the short-term chart we can see that price is moving nicely lower, clearly in impulsive fashion from this week highs. We see price moving down in wave iii that could look for some temporary support in 1210-1215 region. From there be aware of a short-term retracement back in wave iv which could be good for intraday traders to join the downtrend.

Gold 1-Hour Chart

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Gregor is based in Slovenia and has been in Forex market since 2003. His approach to the markets is mainly technical. He uses a lot of different methods when analyzing the markets; from candlestick patterns, MA, technical indicators etc. His specialty however is Elliott Wave Theory which could be very helpful to traders.
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Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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Gold Price Drops $20, "I'd Rather Buy Silver," Says Jim Rogers ...

Posted: 12 Dec 2013 09:05 AM PST

Gold Price Drops $20, "I'd Rather Buy Silver," Says Jim Rogers Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Dec 12, 2013 - 06:05 PM GMT

By: Adrian_Ash

WHOLESALE LONDON gold tumbled more than $20 per ounce in quiet trade Thursday morning, falling with world stock markets after the week's "three-day rally [in gold] prompted some profit-taking" according to one dealing desk.

"The fact that India," said investor, fund manager and best-selling author Jim Rogers to BullionVault overnight, "which has been the largest buyer, has reduced its buying a lot is one of the main factors that's causing gold prices to go down."

Currently blocking imports with high duties and strict re-export rules, "[India] can probably tolerate $30 billion worth of import of gold," said C.Rangarajan, chief of the Indian prime minister's Economic Advisory Council, to an economics conference in Delhi today.

"As inflation comes down and as financial assets become more attractive, perhaps part of the demand for gold can come down too."

Indian gold imports have totaled nearer $50 billion over the last 12 months, and are blamed by the Economic Times today for "inflating India's current account deficit to a historic high of 4.8% of GDP in 2012-13."

Noting plans to "mobilize" existing consumer gold holdings, "If the Indian politicians somehow get their people to sell gold, whoo!" said Jim Rogers to BullionVault.

"Who knows how low gold could go?"

Adding that he's hedged a portion of his personal gold holdings against further price falls, but not his silver position, Rogers says the US budget deal means "the government is under no constraint. Central banks can [also] print as much as they want.

"With all this staggering amount of currency debasement, gold has got to be a good place to be down the road once we get through this correction."

This week's US budget deal will meantime "add pressure on gold and silver," reckons a note from Standard Bank's commodity team in London.

Although "tiny, miniscule" according to some commentators, the deal between Republican and Democrat politicians to avert a repeat of the debt-ceiling shutdown early next year now means "another hurdle to economic growth in the US has been removed," writes analyst Walter de Wet, "and this increases the probability that the US Fed may start to reduce their asset purchases this month."

So "from a tactical perspective," Standard Bank's de Wet concludes, "we still believe that gold should be sold into rallies."

Right now, says Jim Rogers, "I'm not buying either gold or silver...but if I had to buy one today, I'd buy silver because it certainly has gone down more than gold.

"So on a historic priced-basis if nothing else, I'd rather own silver."

If the two precious metals do fall sharply from here, he added, "I hope I'm smart enough to buy more."

By Adrian Ash
BullionVault.com

Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online at live prices

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can buy gold and silver in Zurich, Switzerland for just 0.5% commission.

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

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What India Did to the Gold Price | Gold News

Posted: 11 Dec 2013 01:49 AM PST

How India's anti-gold import rules are affecting the gold price...

THIS YEAR the Indian Government raised import duties as high as 15% on gold, writes Julian Phillips at the GoldForecaster.

India then prevented the import of gold unless 20% of that gold was exported. What impact has this had?

The stated aim of these measures was not to interfere with the price of gold, but to reduce the Current Account Deficit. We know that these measures will only work in the short-term because smuggling will replace the import deficit of gold and the government will have to bow to pressure from the voting public ahead of May elections.

The average Indian family expects its government to misgovern and tolerates the corruption from the highest to the lowest levels, including from the bureaucrats appointed to impose the laws, particularly on gold. Because of this, the Indian business culture is very private and uses black money or an "alternative financial system" to avoid government eyes.

In the last century, there was a period when gold imports were banned and the system for smuggling was well developed. Gold continued to come in from Dubai and across the long coast of western India. Boats would meet the fast speedboats with silver and exchange it for gold, thus avoiding risks on the Rupee. In addition, the long land borders of India facilitate smuggling.

Today gold smuggling has become far more sophisticated, using most of India's borders. We can only roughly guess the volumes being imported this way, but it's now so large that the smuggled gold market is selling gold at a $50 discount per ounce to the legal gold market. The legal gold market has already lost a third of its turnover and stands to lose far more as smuggled volumes of gold rise.

The Indian government is fully aware of this, but the advantage of taking such a line is that the official Current Account Deficit will fall while unreported imports of gold avoid adding to it. The CAD will in reality rise still but be off the books. This too is a 'manipulation' of the gold price as pent-up demand adds to the premiums being charged. Premiums in India have recently risen as high as $264 or 21% an ounce of gold, before falling back but holding at $150.

Let's be clear on this, after a superb Monsoon, the Indian farming community has reaped bumper harvests and is hungry to buy gold. As a result, Indian demand is higher than ever before, but the supply isn't there – they're starved of gold.

So what's the Indian government's next move? The next election is in May 2014, and they cannot afford to be seen as responsible for the destruction of the country's gold industry; it would lose far too many votes. Right now there are increasing pressures to soften the gold blockade. Expect a change as soon as the government thinks a change might gain more votes.

The government has to tread carefully because there's an impending 'reserves' crisis, as its indebtedness relative to reserves becomes critical. The latest numbers out of India show that growth has slowed – it needs 8% growth levels but is only achieving around 5% now – and inflation is moving up over 8% and more. Its current account deficit is not solved by blocking gold imports, but this helps.

The current account deficit does open up India to a precipitous drop in the exchange rate of the Rupee. The Reserve Bank of India is fully aware of this too, so there's a need to find support for their currency. As a sign of the measures they may take to ensure that foreign currencies are always available to them, they have already made exploratory moves to see what gold they can 'harness' to support the Rupee. Their prime target is India's temple gold. Owning some 2,000 tonnes – part of around 25,000 tonnes held inside India already – the temples hold a lot of it stored in banks. This makes it even easier for the government to harness it for their own purposes. Because it sits in banks the same as all deposits do, i.e. as unsecured loans, there will be no need to officially confiscate it. They'll have control of it simply by agreeing to "loan" it for an extendable period.

There is no doubt that the Indian government could harness locally-owned gold. The currency would then be the best-backed currency in the world and wouldn't suffer declines if its gold were used as collateral for its foreign currency needs.

When this happens, we see it as very positive move for the gold price, and by extension, the silver price. But this may have to wait until after the elections next May because of the expected anger it would cause amongst Indian voters.

The point is that governments can act directly to manipulate gold prices inside their country, whether to its detriment or advantage. And India's blockading of gold imports has prevented the gold price from reaching a market accurate price.

The absence of direct Indian demand is also holding down the US Dollar price of gold. It's preventing global demand from overtaking global supplies, thus stopping the gold price from returning to record highs.

India could well be among the first countries to take citizen's gold to support their currency but certainly not the last; it will monetize its gold to some extent and provide a preview of what's to come when the Chinese Yuan becomes a reserve currency.

Gold Price Could Retest 1180 June Low :: The Market Oracle ...

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