Posted: 11 Dec 2013 02:37 AM PST

From: http://www.thehindu.com/business/markets/gold-silver-spurt-on-frantic-buying-strong-global-cues/article5447716.ece?

Gold zoomed by Rs 425 to Rs 31,150 per ten grams in the national capital on Wednesday on frantic buying by stockists and investors on strong global cues.

Silver also surged by Rs 700 to Rs 45,000 per kg on increased offtake by jewellers and industrial units.

Sentiments turned bullish after gold recorded the biggest advance since mid-October as the dollar weakened, boosting the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment, traders said.

Gold in New York, which normally sets price trend on the domestic front, jumped 2.2 per cent to $ 1,261.10 an ounce, the biggest gain since October 17. Silver also climbed 3.1 per cent to $ 20.31 an ounce.

Besides, frantic stockists buying for the ongoing marriage season and investors shifting funds from weakening equity to rising bullion further supported the uptrend, they said.

On the domestic front, gold of 99.9 and 99.5 per cent purity surged by Rs 425 each to Rs 31,150 and Rs 30,950 per ten grams, respectively. Sovereign followed suit and rose by Rs 100 to Rs 25,300 per piece of eight grams.

In a similar fashion, silver ready spurted by Rs 700 to Rs 45,000 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 970 to Rs 45,600 per kg. The white metal had gained Rs 830 yesterday.

Silver coins also sky-rocketted by Rs 3,000 to Rs 85,000 for buying and Rs 86,000 for selling of 100 pieces on upsurge in marriage season demand.

Gold, Silver imports dip

Gold and silver imports declined 80.55 per cent to $ 1.05 billion in November after a slew of measures taken by the government to curb inbound shipments of the metal, aimed at narrowing the current account deficit.

Imports of gold and silver in November 2012 stood at $ 5.4 billion.

Total merchandise imports last month also declined, helping to narrow the trade deficit to $ 9.21 billion, the second—lowest level in this financial year. It was at $ 6.76 billion in September.

"Overall trade deficit from April—November 2013 has come down by almost about $ 30 billion," Commerce Secretary S R Rao told reporters here.

The trade deficit stood at $ 99.9 billion during the first eight months of this financial year compared with $ 129.2 billion in the same period last year.

The current account deficit (CAD) touched a historic high of 4.8 per cent of GDP in 2012-13 and was mainly attributed to high imports of gold and petroleum products.

A high level of CAD puts pressure on the rupee, which has depreciated by about 15 per cent since April 30.

During April-November 2013, gold and silver imports declined 23.78 per cent to $ 25.5 billion from $ 33.5 billion in the same period last year.

The government recently increased import duty for the third time in a year to 10 per cent from 8 per cent and banned inward shipments of gold coins and medallions.

Further, the Reserve Bank of India restricted the import of gold on a consignment basis by banks.

India is the largest importer of gold, which is mainly utilised to meet the demand of the jewellery industry. Imports stood at about 830 tonnes in 2012-13.

Source: http://www.thehindu.com/business/markets/gold-silver-spurt-on-frantic-buying-strong-global-cues/article5447716.ece?

11 December 2013 - QE收紧预期无法阻挡金银反弹

Posted: 11 Dec 2013 02:02 AM PST

From: http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2013/12/11140116312383.shtml

本周，金银价格反弹明显。虽然市场中关于美联储可能很快会缩减QE规模的担忧越发强烈，但却丝毫没有阻止金银价格反弹的步伐。截至周三亚洲盘交易时段，国际现货黄金（1258.80, -5.00, -0.40%）价格稳定于1250美元上方，现货白银价格稳定于20美元整数关口上方。那么是什么原因造成QE收紧预期强烈却依然无法阻挡金银价格反弹呢？

上周末，美国公布的一系列经济数据都积极向好，特别是非农就业数据和失业率均有明显改善，显示美国经济在长期超宽松货币环境下的稳步复苏。但美国经济的这一积极改变，却让资本市场的投资情绪产生了极大分歧。首先是美元并没有因为美国经济的持续向好和QE收紧预期强烈而走高，反而继续保持着疲弱整理态势。

其次，美国股市虽然做出了积极反应，但显然低于市场预期，反而呈现出高位疲弱震荡行情。同时欧洲、亚洲股票也均出现不同程度的小幅调整。

再次，我们看到在商品市场中各类投资商品价格，并没有因为经济向好预期的强烈而表现积极，反而整体表现低迷。虽然原油价格保持着持续反弹态势，但依然稳定于100美元整数关口下方，而且反弹的主因是中国强劲需求的支撑作用。

最后，在贵金属市场中，金银价格打破消极低迷的状态，展现出强劲反弹的态势，三个交易日里，金价一度反弹超过4%，银价一度反弹接近6%。

我们认为造成资本市场反应异常的主要原因，是市场对美国以及全球经济复苏是否健康稳定且可持续，与美联储一旦收紧QE规模可能造成的经济复苏的负面影响，甚至是让美国以及全球经济陷入通货紧缩漩涡之中的担忧。

我们知道当前的美国通胀水平仍在可控范围之内，欧洲的通胀水平偏低，亚洲的中国、日本以及一些新兴经济体国家的通胀水平健康稳定。这显示出全球各国消费水平的实际改善还非常有限。特别是承担美国经济增长最大责任的"居民消费"依然缺乏活力，国际贸易往来的整体水平增幅也非常有限。这些均表明美国以及全球经济的复苏还存在着诸多不确定性。因此，美联储对QE收紧的操作必须谨慎，因为一旦因QE提前收紧可能引发通货紧缩所造成的危害，要远大于通货膨胀。

在资本市场层面，投资者担忧如果美联储提前退出QE操作，很可能会引发全球性通缩的风险。在这个市场预期下，资本市场的避险保值情绪再度升温，纷纷加大了对黄金、白银、原油等安全性较高的投资产品的配置比例。这对金银价格是利好，并将继续推高本轮反弹空间。毕竟以日本为例的通胀目标型经济向好，是长期的持续超发货币和超低利率水平。

另一方面，市场一边担忧和猜测美联储退出QE操用的时间和规模，一边又担忧各国政府高额的财政赤字和消费活力不足。在这种矛盾状态下，投资者对通胀的忧虑要远小于可能因QE退出而引发的通缩危险。更有经济学家担忧全球经济可能再陷低迷和危机。因此，美元还会维持疲弱状态，而金银则会因为这种避险保值情绪的升温继续逐渐走强，保持整体的反弹趋势。

Source: http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2013/12/11140116312383.shtml

Seminar Emas sebagai instrumen Pelaburan & Simpanan - Hafizul Hakim Bin Mohamad Kerta

Posted: 10 Dec 2013 05:37 PM PST

Title	:	Seminar Emas sebagai instrumen Pelaburan & Simpanan
Speaker	:	Hafizul Hakim Bin Mohamad Kerta
Contact No.	:	+60198884452
Email	:	hafizul_hakim@publicgoldsarawak.com