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12 November 2013 - 黄金仍是一种货币资产
12 November 2013 - Chicago ratings cut: Should investors be worried?
12 November 2013 - Gold Vault Opens in China as Bullion Goes From West to East

12 November 2013 - 黄金仍是一种货币资产

Posted: 12 Nov 2013 02:32 AM PST

From:http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2013/11/12130916131554.shtml

10月30日，世界黄金协会发布了名为《黄金与货币》的报告，认为纵观人类历史，黄金在货币体系中一直发挥着举足轻重的作用，即使在当前的浮动汇率体系下，黄金仍然被视为一种货币资产。

　　世界黄金协会的研究表明，黄金不但是抵御货币贬值的天然对冲物，而且还是各国外汇储备的基础。黄金的这些特性如此显著，以至于在分析师、投资者和央行管理者等人士的眼中，黄金不单单是一种商品，更像是一种货币。

　　"由于黄金市场的波动性与外币市场的波动性有诸多相似之处，而且银行在管理黄金资产时也与其管理外币资产的手段类似，因此黄金更多地被视为一种外汇头寸，而不是一种商品。"国际清算银行在其2013年年报中表示。

　　在谈到黄金与货币之间的关系时，世界黄金协会表示，黄金在市场上的表现受三种与货币相关的因素影响，即美元的价值、全球的货币供应量以及黄金在外汇储备中的地位。

　　由于黄金一般都用美元计价，因此美元的价值对金价的影响不容小觑。更重要的是，由于黄金价格不与单个国家的货币政策或财政政策直接关联，因此黄金通常也被视为对冲美元风险的天然工具，黄金的这一特点也强化了其与美元之间的负相关关系。

　　当全球货币供应量超过全球经济增长所需的供应量时，就会有更多的热钱追逐少量的商品、服务和资产，导致通胀压力上升，并有可能造成通货膨胀和货币贬值，此时投资者将更愿意持有像黄金这样的硬资产。

　　由于美元是全球贸易中使用的主要货币，因此各国均需要持有足够的外汇储备来偿付它们的美元债务，美元自然而然地就成为了各国外汇储备组合中的重中之重。尽管如此，各国政府仍应持有诸如黄金这样零债务风险、高质量、高流动性的资产来多元化其外汇储备，以避免外汇储备组合过于集中的风险。

　　虽然长期来看，这三种因素对黄金在市场上的表现均有重要影响，但是短期来看，美元价值的波动无疑是影响金价变化的最重要因素。

　　世界黄金协会的统计数据显示，自上世纪70年代全球货币体系采用浮动汇率以来，现货黄金价格与贸易加权美元指数之间绝大部分时间都呈负相关关系，相关系数的平均值约为-0.4。可以说，黄金在对冲美元贬值方面的表现是一以贯之的，在保护投资者购买力方面的表现也是值得信赖的。

　　过去40年，美国投资者的购买力持续下滑，其中购买力下滑的三成要归结于美元的持续贬值。更令投资者担忧的是，从基本面上分析，美元的前景并不被看好。美国经济的相对增速、经常账户赤字和长、短期利率均预示着美元有可能进一步下跌。

　　除美元外，印度卢比、南非兰特、英镑、瑞士法郎、新加坡元与黄金之间也呈现出较强的负相关关系。值得注意的是，随着新兴经济体国家在黄金供应和需求方面所占的份额越来越大，新兴经济体国家的货币也与黄金之间呈现出越来越紧密的关系。

　　另外，随着新兴经济体国家的贸易在全球贸易中的比重越来越大，这些新兴经济体国家的货币在各国外汇储备中的比例也有望随之增长，这也势必会影响到黄金市场。

　　世界黄金协会预计，在不远的将来，新兴经济体国家的持金量将超过发达国家的持金量。最近的趋势也表明，西金确实正在东移，上海、香港、新加坡、孟买和伊斯坦布尔等地的黄金交易所正在分流纽约、伦敦交易所的流动性。

　　以上海黄金交易所为例，自2002年成立以来，其交易量的年均复合增长率达到了24%；在过去5年，其交货量的年均复合增长更是高达38%。若这一势头继续延续的话，人民币汇率的波动不久也将对金价产生重大影响。

　　"随着全球储备货币的多元化，黄金在防范法定货币内在风险方面的重要作用届时将更加凸显。"世界黄金协会在报告中这样总结道。

Source:http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2013/11/12130916131554.shtml

12 November 2013 - Chicago ratings cut: Should investors be worried?

Posted: 11 Nov 2013 07:43 PM PST

From:http://www.cnbc.com/id/101187720

Spillover effects after Chicago's ratings downgrade are expected to remain minimal, but municipal bond investors may be feeling nervous that there are other shoes to drop.

In recent months, the $4 trillion municipal bond market has been rattled by Detroit's bankruptcy, Puerto Rico's fiscal pains and unfunded pension liabilities in several other states. According to the latest research from Morningstar, worried investors have been retreating heavily from muni funds since March.

Adding insult to injury, Fitch Ratings docked Chicago's bond ratings by three notches Friday evening, with a negative outlook, citing the city's tepid economy and its bubbling unfunded pension liability.

"I don't think professional investors should be surprised by [Chicago's ratings cut] at all," said Marilyn Cohen, president of Envision Capital, noting that Chicago's pension problems have been several years in the making. "And I doubt there will be a big reaction in the bond market."

The bond market is closed Monday in observance of the Veterans Day holiday.

(Read more: Save cities or let them go bankrupt?)

Fitch downgraded $8 billion in Chicago's unlimited tax general obligation bonds to A- from AA- and also lowered $497.3 million in sales tax bonds to A- from AA-.

"The downgrade reflects the lack of meaningful solutions to both the near-term and long-term burden," according to the credit ratings agency. "The city has been unsuccessful it its attempts to negotiate a solution with labor unions and lobby the state legislature."

Despite the downgrade, Bob DiMella, co-portfolio manager of the MainStay Tax Free Bond Fund, said Chicago's recent credit downgrade is not necessarily the start of a domino effect.

"This year, the fundamental credit cycle in the muni market is positive, not negative—there have actually been more upgrades than downgrades," he noted. "Detroit was a blip on the radar screen and Chicago will be as well. [Chicago] has a structural imbalance and this is more like a collateral damage [following] the downgrade in Illinois [in June]."

(Read more: Banker: Goes without saying Detroit must cut pensions)

Illinois was slapped with an A- rating by Fitch with a negative outlook in June, affecting $27.5 billion of outstanding debt. Even before the downgrade, Illinois had one of the lowest credit ratings in the nation as the state struggled with a nearly $100 billion unfunded pension liability. The agency warned that Illinois' lower rating could be in further jeopardy if the state does not take action to stabilize its finances.

"It's possible to see another downgrade in Chicago—but we believe they are not going to go below investment grade," said DiMella. "We believe they have the revenue they need and once they figure out investment for pensions, you'll see stability again."

In October, Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel called for pension reforms, proposing a spending plan for the third-largest city including a hike in the cigarette tax, higher zoning permit fees for big developments and an end to some retirees' health insurance.

"A bankruptcy filing in Chicago? Anything's possible," said Cohen. "Unless they get their act together, [problems] will compound and they won't be able to handle it. Rahm Emanuel is a smart guy—he needs to stop letting unions pull him by the nose ring!"

Source:http://www.cnbc.com/id/101187720

12 November 2013 - Gold Vault Opens in China as Bullion Goes From West to East

Posted: 11 Nov 2013 07:40 PM PST

From:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-10/gold-vault-for-2-000-tons-opens-in-shanghai-as-bullion-goes-east.html

A gold vault that can store 2,000 metric tons, double China's projected consumption this year, opened in Shanghai this month as owner Malca-Amit Global Ltd. seeks to benefit from rising demand in Asia's largest economy.

The facility is the biggest for the Hong Kong-based company, and it can also store diamonds, jewelry and art, Joshua Rotbart, precious metals general manager, said in an interview. The site could hold bullion worth about $82.5 billion at today's price, Bloomberg calculations show. China's total demand may reach 1,000 tons in 2013, the World Gold Council forecasts.

Consumption in China may increase 29 percent to a record this year, overtaking India as biggest user as lower prices and higher incomes spur demand, according to the WGC. The investment in Shanghai's new free-trade zone reflects a shift in world demand away from the U.S. and Europe toward Asia. Demand for gold jewelry, bars and coins in Greater China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam is now about 60 percent of the global total, up from 35 percent in 2004, according to HSBC Holdings Plc.

"Such a facility is a massive vote of confidence for the Chinese gold market," said Philip Klapwijk, managing director of Hong Kong-based Precious Metals Insights Ltd. "The trend for demand has been very strongly positive," said Klapwijk, who's monitored precious metals since 1988.

Annual Loss

Bullion is headed for the first annual drop in 13 years as expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will curb stimulus hurt investment demand, spurring record outflows from exchange-traded products. Bullion in London traded at $1,282.14 an ounce at 3:03 p.m. in London, 23 percent lower this year and 33 percent below the record $1,921.15 reached in September 2011.

"There's going to be more gold coming to China," Rotbart said on Nov. 5. "This place can be used as a trade hub basically, so foreign banks can trade with domestic banks within this facility, saving costs and time."

The Shanghai vault is targeted at international and Chinese financial institutions, as well as the arts community, Rotbart said at the Waigaoqiao free-trade area, where firms have fewer restrictions on investment and foreign-exchange requirements. Apart from Hong Kong and Singapore, where capacity is 1,000 tons each, Malca-Amit also has storage space in New York, Zurich, Geneva, London and Bangkok.

"We expect big demand from foreign banks and we are talking to a few," said Rotbart. "It's a step forward for them because it puts less limit on how they operate in China."

Preserving Wealth

While gold in China and elsewhere in Asia is traditionally seen as a way of preserving wealth, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG are among those forecasting more losses. Bullion will average $1,175 in the third quarter of next year, according to the median of estimates from the 10 most-accurate precious metals analysts tracked by Bloomberg in a survey published last month. Prices were last at that level in 2010.

Investors sold more than 755 tons from gold-backed ETPs this year as holdings contracted every month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. There is a risk that bullion may drop below $1,000 an ounce as the Fed withdraws stimulus and economic data improve, Goldman Sachs forecast Sept. 13.

"There's been a lot of gold being sold out of ETFs, all of that is outside of China," Victor Thianpiriya, a Singapore-based analyst at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said by phone today. "A lot of that has found its way to China via Hong Kong, attracted by demand for bullion bars."

Chinese Consumption

China's consumption totaled 776.1 tons in 2012, compared with 864.2 tons in India, according to the WGC. Usage in China rose 54 percent to 706.36 tons in the first six months, according to the China Gold Association, which is funded by miners, refiners, retailers and jewelry makers.

Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, Deutsche Bank AG and UBS AG also opened vaults in Asia this year, and U.K. bullion exports surged, a sign to Macquarie Group Ltd. of the flow of metal from west to east. Bullion demand across Asia will keep expanding as inflation spurs purchases, HSBC economists including Frederic Neumann said in a report on Oct. 18.

China ranks fourth worldwide in terms of the number of people with $1 million or more in investible assets, according to a report by Cap Gemini SA and Royal Bank of Canada. The number of high-net-worth individuals in the country rose 14 percent to 643,000 in 2012 from the year before, the report said. China's gross domestic product increased to $8.4 trillion last year, from $1.5 trillion in 2002, Bloomberg data show.

Net Imports

Bullion has been flowing into mainland China even as local output increased. Net imports from Hong Kong more than doubled to 826 tons in the first nine months of the year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on government figures. Local output rose 8.2 percent to 270.2 tons from January to August.

Shanghai is home to the country's biggest physical gold exchange, founded by the People's Bank of China. Gold volume on the Shanghai Gold Exchange rose to a five-month high of 22,703 kilograms on Oct. 8.

China started the pilot free-trade zone in Shanghai at the end of September, promising a more business-friendly regulatory framework and relaxed capital-flow rules. The country may allow more companies to import and export gold under draft rules released by the central bank on Sept. 30.

Source:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-10/gold-vault-for-2-000-tons-opens-in-shanghai-as-bullion-goes-east.html