Spot Chart | <b>Gold</b> and Silver Price Ready To Go BOOM :: The Market Oracle <b>...</b> | News2Gold |
- <b>Gold</b> and Silver Price Ready To Go BOOM :: The Market Oracle <b>...</b>
- Is Euro <b>Gold</b> Decoupling From Dollar <b>Gold</b>? | <b>Gold</b> Silver Worlds
- 3 Important <b>Gold Charts</b> – Transparent Holdings Fall As Bullion <b>...</b>
- The Truth About Where <b>Gold</b> Price Is Headed :: The Market Oracle <b>...</b>
| <b>Gold</b> and Silver Price Ready To Go BOOM :: The Market Oracle <b>...</b> Posted: 08 Sep 2014 12:13 AM PDT By: Austin_Galt
There are really only a couple of things I wanted to show in this analysis. We will use the weekly chart for gold and the daily chart for silver. Let's begin with gold. Gold Weekly Chart We can see the triangle formation as made by the two black trend lines I have drawn. This structure is on the charts of most, if not all, technical analysts. And so it should be. But it is very obvious. And when something becomes too obvious, I put on my contrarian hat. From previous analysis, readers will be well aware that I am looking for a rally that busts the upper trend line in a fake out move. I expect the break to only be temporary before it reverses back down to continue the down trend. Also, in previous analysis, I stated I thought the lower trend line would hold this current pullback. Last week it broke through and in doing so provided further clarity. That is, I believe this is the start of a double fake out. This current break of the lower trend line is the minor fake out while the bust of the upper trend line will be the major fake out. So, we have currently in progress the first fake out or false break of the lower trend line. To confirm this, we will need to see price reverse back up. However, there may be a touch lower to go to put in the pullback low. I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent upleg from the June low to July high. This has already been a deep retracement and the next support level is the 88.6% level which stands at US$1252. Perhaps we will see a move down to there early next week before the belated reversal higher begins. I have added a Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) which also shows a similar triangle formation. I expect the next high in the gold price to be accompanied by a RSI reading that stays within the confines of this triangle pattern. At the very least, comes in lower than the previous high reading as shown at the July top. As for the eventual top of the rally (after it finally commences of course!), I am still zeroing in on the 76.4% Fibonacci level which stands at US$1373. It may even get up close to the March 2014 high of US$1387 but I doubt it will surpass it. A top up there would also create a double top with the trend. That would be very bearish and would certainly suit my bearish outlook of gold then heading to sub US$1000 for the final low. For those that still doubt we are about to see a major rally, let's just focus on the pattern of trading here. Note how from the June low, it took 6 weeks or 6 candles, including the low and high candles, to reach the July high. Since then, price has only retraced just over three quarters of that move but it has already taken 8 weeks and a new low next week will make it 9 weeks. This means price is showing more impulsiveness when it goes up than when it goes down. That generally means the trend is up. Keep in mind this is a bull trend within an overall bear trend. Let's now look at silver. Silver Daily Chart I have drawn two black down trending lines. We can see price recently had a fake out to the upside before continuing downwards. This can be seen in the green highlighted circle. Price is now hovering just above the 88.6% Fibonacci level. I suspect price can dip down just below there early next week, perhaps down close to the lower trend line, before reversing higher. The most interesting feature of this chart revolves around the RSI and, I must say, it has me captivated. That is the double bottom with the trend. This is essentially a triple bullish divergence as denoted by the numbers 1, 2 and 3. However, the last two lows have shown virtually identical RSI readings. This double bottom pattern generally leads to a powerful move higher. Now keep in mind we are talking about the RSI and not price. What is interesting about the last few days trading is that price went marginally lower while the RSI did not. Price may still go lower yet without breaking the RSI double bottom. In fact, in my opinion, early next week will see price trade lower on an intraday basis before staging a massive reversal higher. Price will go boom and so too will the RSI. As far as I'm concerned, it's just a matter of time now. Tick tock. By Austin Galt Austin Galt is The Voodoo Analyst. I have studied charts for over 20 years and am currently a private trader. Several years ago I worked as a licensed advisor with a well known Australian stock broker. While there was an abundance of fundamental analysts, there seemed to be a dearth of technical analysts. My aim here is to provide my view of technical analysis that is both intriguing and misunderstood by many. I like to refer to it as the black magic of stock market analysis. My website is www.thevoodooanalyst.com © 2014 Copyright The Voodoo Analyst - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors. © 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.  |
| Is Euro <b>Gold</b> Decoupling From Dollar <b>Gold</b>? | <b>Gold</b> Silver Worlds Posted: 08 Sep 2014 02:45 PM PDT Gold reflects the value of a currency. That is the most basic and fundamental understanding of gold. Yes, there are drivers for the price of gold, including rising inflation, fear of war, growing ETF demand, etc. But the most fundamental driver is monetary devaluation. There are plenty of examples which show that gold denominated in currencies that devalue, moves significantly higher. Think of recent cases in 2014 like the ones we wrote about:
The examples are related to developing markets, which is not too relevant to most of or readers. So let's examine the situation of the major currencies. The first chart shows the price of 8 major currencies since June of this year. It is not difficult to spot the trend. The US Dollar is the big winner of the last months, and, unsurprisingly, the Euro is the big loser. Now, this is not to be confused with central bank language, as in this world of currency wars, a weakening currency is considered to be a positive for its country or region. So, Mr. Draghi is probably looking at a weakening Euro as a positive development, no matter if Europeans are losing purchasing power. As the above chart points out, the US Dollar has rallied significantly since July of this year. Consequently, gold has come under pressure, as the yellow metal has gone from $1,340 an ounce in July to $1,251 today. At least, that is what we read in mainstream media. But here is the key point. Gold has come down in US Dollar terms, but not in Euro terms. So, in other words, Euro gold has held up much better than Dollar gold. Let's look at the evidence. The evidence of the above statement is visible in the gold charts of last 5 days. The first chart shows Euro Gold since past Thursday, the second one shows Dollar Gold. It is no coincidence that Mr. Draghi announced his 1 trillion stimulus on September 4th. While it is not visible in the Dollar chart, it is crystal clear in the Euro Gold chart when he announced it.
Let's take a larger timeframe: 1 month. The first chart below shows Euro Gold, and the price action looks quite balanced. The second chart, however, reflecting Dollar Gold, is not very constructive.
Dan Norcini, professional trader since 4 decades, has put it nicely on his personal blog: "As far as Europeans are concerned, an interest rate environment such as the ECB is creating, is a two-edged sword. On the one hand, it lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold since bonds there pay next to nothing and thus incentivizes ownership of gold. On the other hand, the stronger Dollar (via weaker Euro) raises the price of the metal and thus makes it more expensive to buy and own. That is why one must view the chart to gauge which view will dominate." Although one day or one week does not make a market, it seems obvious that a potential trend is in the making: Euro Gold is decoupling from Dollar Gold. It is too early to confirm a trend change, but it is worth monitoring the evolution closely. Norcini added a longer term chart, which shows that Euro Gold is range bound. There is a probability that Euro Gold could break out, given that it will overcome the magic €1000 barrier. The moral of the story is to always remember to put a gold price in its proper perspective. The Europeans holding physical gold are, for the time being, protected from their central banking policies. On the other hand, Americans, with a strengthening US Dollar, are subject to lower gold prices, at least in the short run. The same idea applies to the long term; it is up to the reader to check the long term charts, both for the Euro and US Dollar, to get some evidence of gold's protective value. |
| 3 Important <b>Gold Charts</b> – Transparent Holdings Fall As Bullion <b>...</b> Posted: 02 Sep 2014 05:01 AM PDT by GoldCore 3 Important Gold Charts – Transparent Holdings Fall As Bullion Goes East To Russia and China
Nick Laird of www.ShareLynx.com has compiled some great new charts on the transparency of public gold holdings over time. The charts were emailed to us Monday night. Sharelynx.com is one of the internet's most comprehensive sources for market related charts and is well worth the subscription. The charts are very illuminating and provide great insight into how gold has shifted between non public sources and public sources over the last 10-12 years. Below we reproduce some of Nick's charts and some GoldCore commentary on the trends that we find most interesting. In his charts, Nick has defined transparent gold holdings as "Total Published Repositories, Mutual Funds and ETFs", and the gold holdings in millions of ounces are derived from these sources. The data therefore covers known private holdings of gold but excludes both the holdings of central banks, the official sector, and holdings in private ownership including for example GoldCore Secure Storage holdings. The first chart shows a long term view of transparent gold holdings since 1970. As the gold bull market began in the late 1990s, the amount of gold held in transparent holdings rose sharply and displays a very high correlation with the rising gold price.
While there would obviously be some data issues in collecting gold holdings data from periods such as the 1970s and 1980s, more importantly, there was a very limited choice of accessible gold vehicles and the futures markets were in their infancy. It was only since the early 2000s that the choice of gold vehicles, and therefore high quality holdings information, became available. Beginning in 2001, when only a few millions ounces of private gold holdings could be tracked through publically available sources, the amount of gold held in public repositories exploded as the gold price rose, reaching 20 million ounces in 2006, 50 million ounces by 2009, and over 100 million ounces by the beginning of 2013. Interestingly, as the gold price peaked in 2011, the amount of gold flowing into ETFs, mutual funds and other public repositories kept increasing and only peaked In January 2013 as the gold price began its fall from $1,700/oz through to $1,300/oz. Chart 2 shows a ten year view from 2004 to 2014 and drills down into the sources that make up the transparent gold holdings totals. These sources include everything from COMEX and the GLD ETF to the iShares ETF and the Central Fund of Canada, and also publically available data on some of the smaller ETFs and online gold retailers. While the holdings represented by the futures exchange did grow over the 2000s, their growth was quite stable. By far the largest growth in trackable gold holdings was in the GLD and the other large ETFs such as the ETF Securities and iShares products. Gold holdings in GLD grew consistently from 2005 to 2009, but then rocketed up from 2009 to 2011 before stabilising until the end of 2013. As has been documented elsewhere, there was then a huge outflow from GLD. The trend in the other ETFs is similar although on a smaller scale.
Chart 3 compares total weight of gold held to total value in US dollars of those holdings. The key takeaway from this chart is that, again, as the price of gold rose, there was a huge mobilisation of gold out of non publicly tracked sources into vehicles and on to exchanges where it could be publically tracked. This mobilisation of gold at its peak was somewhere between 90 million and 100 million ounces (2800 tonnes – 3100 tonnes). The question is where did all this gold come from? Some would obviously have been from new mine supply, some probably from central bank sales, and some from dis-hoarding out of private hoards. Although HNW investors were more likely to have been buying gold in the years immediately preceding the global financial crisis and almost certainly were buying during the financial crisis. An equally important question is that now that the public repositories have lost 30 million ounces in under 2 years, where has all that gold gone? It would be realistic to assume that some has gone to China and the Far East since there has been evidence of such flows. Equally its possible that some of the gold that has disappeared from the ETFs and other products and sources has again gone back into private hoards or else is being accumulated by the official sector such as emerging market central banks such as the Russian central bank and the People's Bank of China (PBOC). We discussed this, 'peak gold', Russian gold buying and producing and Russia and China's plans for gold in a short interview at the weekend: View here MARKET UPDATE The US markets were closed for a national holiday yesterday. Gold in Singapore fell by $10 in illiquid trading prior to further falls in London which saw gold fall to $1,270/oz. Silver slipped $0.30 or 1.55% to $19.17 per ounce in London trading. Platinum is down 0.35% to $1,420 after falling from $1,426. Palladium failed to hold above the key $900 level and fell 2% today to $890 from $909 yesterday. Despite ongoing significant geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and elsewhere, gold has not managed to break above $1,300/oz. It continues to trade at the lower end of a tight trading range between $1,270/oz and $1,300/oz. Silver, likewise, has followed gold lower. Receive our award winning research here 91 Total Views 1 Views Today |
| The Truth About Where <b>Gold</b> Price Is Headed :: The Market Oracle <b>...</b> Posted: 06 Sep 2014 07:34 AM PDT By: Chris_Vermeulen
Let me start out by painting a picture for you. This is my technical analysis overlaid on the price of gold. This simply gives you a visual of were the price of gold is trading. But first, if you have not yet seen this "Gold in the USA" infographic you must check it out... it shows the history of gold in a visual format, and you will likely learn something from it - Click Here Gold Holds Long-Term Bearish PatternGold peaked around 1900 in September 2011 and quickly fell to the 1550 area. The metal then consolidated for 18 months before it broke support. The sharp decline triggered a drop in price to $1200 in April 2013. Since then gold has been in another consolidation, which is a bearish continuation pattern. The lower highs in 2013 and 2014 reflect weakening demand and increasing selling pressure at lower price levels. A break down in price below support would trigger further weakness and a drop to roughly $900 oz. If you want more of a bearish visual; see my August gold report. Gold Bullish Outlook Signs of a BottomSIGN #1: Gold is technically still in a down trend but it may be quietly forming a bottom. This is how bull markets often start. First it declines in value to a point which breaks the most steadfast bulls. And it does this by relentlessly losing value for an extended period of time. If the market doesn't shake you out, it will wear you out! Gold is no longer talked about by the majority of participants, nor is it talked about every day in the media. Simply put, everyone is bored of the low price and sideways trading the past couple of years. SIGN #2: The key to front running the next rally in gold is to watch the price of gold stocks. They typically lead gold. So when gold stocks start outperforming the price of gold along with the HUI gold stock index we can expect the price of gold to follow a few days or weeks later. Gold stocks as a whole have not yet started to outperform gold. But if we look at the HUI/Gold ratio it is at extreme levels. This is the same level we saw in 2001 before gold and gold stocks rocketed higher for several years. The ratio is not something you should trade off of, but it's a good confirmation indicator that gold stocks are priced fairly. SIGN #3: Looking at what the price of gold has done over the past 40 years 12 months before interest rates have been increased is very interesting and not something many traders know. With interest rates expected to rise in 2015 this is a statistic that should be reviewed. Numbers do not lie and historical charts show the price of gold rising an average of 20% within the year before interest rates rise. And in case you happen to miss the first 6 months of the move, do not worry. Most of the rally takes place just 6 months before rates go up. SIGN #4: September is the strongest month for gold each year when looking at the 32 year seasonal chart. The odds favor higher prices this month. Likely not enough to spark a new bull market, but may build a base in the price. Gold Forecast and ConclusionOne day these weeks gold will breakout down from of this consolidation pattern or breakout and rally from this basing pattern. Which way is the question we are all wondering. Anyone who clearly states gold has bottomed and to buy is taking a stab as being a hero and to say what the masses want to hear. Sure, it sounds great, but it's BS. From a price and technical standpoint gold remains bearish or neutral at best. Until price clearly breaks out from this range you should trade with caution and small position sizes. However, when/if gold starts to rally it is likely best to jump on the train rather than wait for a pause or pullback in price after the breakout. It may just keep on rising until $1550 is reached. Watch My Daily Gold Video Analysis at TheGoldAndOilGuy.com Automated Investing System for the Average Trader: www.AlgoTrades.net Chris Vermeulen Join my email list FREE and get my next article which I will show you about a major opportunity in bonds and a rate spike – www.GoldAndOilGuy.com Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading site TheGoldAndOilGuy.com. There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method. For 7 years Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, oil, and silver in both bull and bear markets. Subscribers to his service depend on Chris' uniquely consistent investment opportunities that carry exceptionally low risk and high return. This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis. © 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. |
The wait for the next leg up in both gold and silver has been excruciating. Many bulls are losing hope and the number of bears appears to be increasing. As for me, I remain rock solid. I hold long silver positions and I must say I am not worried one iota. Of course I could be wrong. I seriously doubt it though. Let's see why.
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