9 September 2014 - Gold: The time is now

9 September 2014 - Gold: The time is now
9 September 2014 - Goldcorp CEO Jeannes Sees "Peak Gold" in Sector This Year or Next
9 September 2014 - How India’s Import Duties Are Killing Indian Gold Demand
9 September 2014 - 有图有真相到2030年你也许再也买不到黄金

Posted: 09 Sep 2014 03:31 AM PDT

From:http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2014/09/04/gold-the-time-is-now

BY JEFFREY NICHOLS

I am frequently asked about the economic outlook and investment-market prospects. Most of all, people ask, "Is now a good time to OWN gold?"

My answer is always the same: NOW is always a good time to own gold.

Importantly, we OWN the metal because, over time, its inclusion in a typical savings and investment portfolio provides a variety of benefits – diversification, reduced portfolio volatility and risk, inflation protection, as well as insurance against unknown and unpredictable economic and political risks, the so-called "black swan" events.

We don't know the future, and that is precisely why gold is an important investment and savings asset. It provides a form of "wealth insurance" that is accessible to nearly everyone, from the humblest household to the richest nation.

Investors and savers should definitely own some for safety and capital preservation – so should central banks.

NOW is also a good time to BUY gold to benefit from the unprecedented price appreciation that lies ahead.

I'm no "gold bug" – that is someone who believes gold is the only true money...and, if only the major world governments would reintroduce some sort of "gold standard," all would be right with the planet Earth.

Nevertheless, I'm super-bullish on gold's long-term prospects...and I do believe NOW is an excellent time to invest in gold in order to capture the unprecedented appreciation that lies ahead.

Investors owning gold do not have to expect – or hope for – some economic or political catastrophe to benefit from gold ownership.

Over the long run, gold should do well as an investment asset even in the best of times, thanks to rising household incomes and expanding middle classes in China and India.

These are – by far – the two biggest gold-consuming nations, and as long as there is long-term economic growth in these countries, there will be long-term growth in their appetite for this precious metal.

In addition, gold should benefit from continued net demand from the official sector as a number of central banks underweighted in gold strive to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar as the world's dominant reserve asset and trade-settlement currency.

Indeed, whichever way gold prices move next – up, down, or just sideways – I expect super-sized gains over the next three to five years with prices more than doubling their all-time historic high.

Source:http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2014/09/04/gold-the-time-is-now

9 September 2014 - Goldcorp CEO Jeannes Sees "Peak Gold" in Sector This Year or Next

Posted: 09 Sep 2014 03:29 AM PDT

From:http://online.wsj.com/articles/goldcorp-ceo-jeannes-sees-peak-gold-in-sector-this-year-or-next-1410188689

By ALISTAIR MACDONALD

Miners have reached "peak gold," in which production of the precious metal has hit its high as easy-to-mine gold deposits become harder to find, said Chuck Jeannes, chief executive of Goldcorp, G.T -1.64% the world's largest gold miner by market capitalization.

Mr. Jeannes said in an interview that a falloff in supply will support the gold price, but make mining it even harder and lead to further consolidation in the industry. Still, the Vancouver-based miner played down investors' expectation that Goldcorp itself is poised to make a takeover bid following the rejection of its most recent attempt to buy a rival miner.

"Whether it is this year or next year, I don't think we will ever see the gold production reach these levels again," he said. "There are just not that many new mines being found and developed."

Gold production has been rising quickly since the late 1970s, hitting 2,270 metric tons last year, according to preliminary figures from the U.S. Geological Survey. The 386 metric tons of gold produced in 1900 is 17% of the gold mined in 2013.

Mr. Jeannes said that without a dramatic technological advance gold production is unlikely to increase during his career.

While many other miners agree with Mr. Jeannes, some analysts and geologists believe that it is too hard to predict whether there will be a falloff. Michael George, a gold specialist at the USG, said people have worried about this precious metal running out since the California gold rush in the 1840s. He argues that demand for gold will remain strong, so there will always be people willing to dig it up.

Mr. Jeannes said that peak gold is "very positive" for the long-term price of gold. The metal is trading at $1,261 a troy ounce, down almost a third since its peak in September 2011. Miners' stock performances have fallen with the metal. And while Goldcorp, the world's third-biggest gold miner by production, has outperformed its peers, its share price has been halved in value during that time.

Mr. Jeannes expects gold to trade within a tight range over the next few years. Increasingly it is being moved by supply and demand, which is currently relatively finely balanced, he said. In recent years, the metal hasn't traded as a safe haven, as through much of modern history, and has barely been affected by recent geopolitical tensions and troubles, he said.

As gold production declines, the miner's job becomes harder, as companies compete for increasingly rare deposits. Discoveries have already tapered off. In 1995, 22 gold deposits with at least two million ounces of gold each were discovered, according to SNL Metals Economics Group. In 2010, there were six such discoveries, and in 2011 there was one. In 2012: nothing. Given this, Mr. Jeannes and other sector players see more consolidation in the industry as miners buy companies with reserves rather than develop their own.

Last January, Goldcorp tried to acquire Osisko Mining Corp. with a 2.78 billion Canadian dollar ($2.5 billion) cash-and-stock hostile takeover offer. That was trumped by a rival bid. Mr. Jeannes says that investors now wrongly believe his company wants to use that cash to pursue another acquisition.

"There is a sense that because we attempted to buy Osisko and didn't we are standing poised with our gun loaded and ready to shoot, and it's just not the case," he said.

Nor is Goldcorp looking to buy out the 60% controlling stake of Pueblo Viejo that Barrick Gold Corp. ABX.T -1.45% holds in their jointly owned Pueblo Viejo mine in the Dominican Republic. Mr. Jeannes says that having a partner in so large a project mitigates risk. He predicts more joint ventures in gold mining for large projects, particularly those in countries with political risk.

The company has also been busy developing its own projects, with a new mine in Argentina recently pouring its first gold and another two projects set to follow suit in the next year.

"We are at the cusp at being able to realize the huge investment over the last four years," he said. "We are looking forward to having higher production, lower costs and our capital spending dropping off."

Source:http://online.wsj.com/articles/goldcorp-ceo-jeannes-sees-peak-gold-in-sector-this-year-or-next-1410188689

9 September 2014 - How India’s Import Duties Are Killing Indian Gold Demand

Posted: 09 Sep 2014 03:12 AM PDT

From:http://etfdailynews.com/2014/09/08/how-indias-import-duties-are-killing-indian-gold-demand/

Tara Clarke: Something unexpected happened earlier this year that altered our prediction that Indian gold demand would soar in 2014…

You see, over a two-month period beginning in April, the Indian general election of 2014 – the largest-ever election in the world in terms of voter headcount – saw the seating of a new government in India.

With that, we expected to see the country's gold demand shoot up almost immediately. That's because the new government had campaigned on a political platform that called for the loosening of the country's heavy gold import duties. These duties have been stifling Indian gold demand since they were imposed in 2013.

But now it's five months past the election, and still, the stringent gold import duties have not been loosened whatsoever. The result: stifled gold demand.

That's why data released by the World Gold Council (WGC) in August showed that Indian gold demand fell 39% to 204.1 tons in the second quarter. The WGC's report also showed that gold jewelry demand in the country was down 18% at 154.5 tons.

Here's how the heavy gold import duties are weighing on Indian gold demand – and why the new government hasn't lifted them yet…

How India's Import Duties Are Killing Indian Gold Demand

From May 1 to Aug. 20, 2013, the Indian rupee lost a staggering 20%, reaching all-time lows versus the U.S. dollar. This record-low rupee exchange rate pushed the gold price in India up almost 35% at the same time, to new record highs.

Indians were buying so much gold that it exacerbated the nation's current-account deficit, putting it at a record 4.8% for 2012. Short of banning the sale of gold outright, the Indian government tried nearly everything to slow gold purchases.

First, it imposed import duties on gold. Then it hiked those duties three more times – all the way to 10% in 2013 alone. Still not enough, on Sept. 17, the Indian Ministry of Finance raised gold jewelry import duties from 10% to 15%. It imposed an 80-20 rule, by which a minimum of 20% of all gold imported had to be exported before further imports could be made.

As a result of the government's action, higher rupee gold prices and ever-increasing gold taxes weighed on demand. Indian gold imports fell considerably in the latter half of 2013, dropping to 30% of former levels. The effect has continued in the first half of 2014.

But the elected officials who promised to loosen the import duties have not followed through because of uncertainties over oil prices and U.S. monetary policy.

"What's the point in relaxing everything and being faced with a higher interest rate scenario and higher oil prices," Somasundaram PR, head of WGC operations in India, said to Reuters last week. "Given all that I think (the rules) might extend into the first quarter of next year."

On the new government's first budget in July, the gold import policy was unchanged. Now India isn't expecting to see a duty reduction until 2015.

Still, gold bugs can expect Indian gold demand to rise considerably in the third quarter – in fact, it's already happening…

Indian Gold Demand Will Rise in the Latter Half of 2014

Indian consumers have begun paying a higher markup to global gold prices (known as a premium) from $10 to $13 a troy ounce from zero in July, according to a late August report from The Wall Street Journal. It's a sign that despite the import duties, Indian gold demand is picking up.

There are three reasons why…

The first is a seasonal affect. During India's wedding season and Diwali festival, demand in the country skyrockets – so much so, that it pushes up the price of gold worldwide.

This period lasts from September through December.

"The fall is typically a very robust gold-buying period. The all-important wedding, festival, and harvest seasons are quickly approaching," Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth said.

The second reason gold demand is up is because the rupee has strengthened against the dollar – making domestic gold prices drop.

"Demand has risen as buyers have dived in after a heavy fall in prices over the past week," Rahul Gupta, managing director of Indian jewelry chain giant P.P. Jewelers, said to The Wall Street Journal on Aug. 25.

And the third reason Indian gold demand will rise in the latter half of 2014 has to do with the certainty that's been injected into the market, now that the new government's submitted its fiscal budget.

"We are entering Diwali with a slightly better mindset and the consumers are also clear that a price drop or an import duty cut won't happen in a hurry," Somasundaram said. "So the fact that the uncertainty is gone and normal purchasing behavior will return, we expect the second half will be better than the first half."

The WGC estimates that Indian gold demand could rise 27% to 500 tons in the latter half of 2014.

Source:http://etfdailynews.com/2014/09/08/how-indias-import-duties-are-killing-indian-gold-demand/

9 September 2014 - 有图有真相到2030年你也许再也买不到黄金

Posted: 09 Sep 2014 03:09 AM PDT

From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-09-09/168271216.html

从图1中你可以清晰的看到，如果你出生于2010年，全球还会给你留下多少年的可用资源。