8 September 2014 - India prepares for shining return of gold demand |
- 8 September 2014 - India prepares for shining return of gold demand
- 8 September 2014 - Gold well-supported by weak US jobs data
- 8 September 2014 - Gold prices gain in Asia on physical demand from India
- 8 September 2014 - 专家：正确影响下金价很容易上涨 料年底金价1450
| 8 September 2014 - India prepares for shining return of gold demand Posted: 08 Sep 2014 03:02 AM PDT From:http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f2e2f570-3729-11e4-b45c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3CiSDc57o By Avantika Chilkoti in Mumbai Festival season is kicking off in India – a period in which gold sales traditionally spike in the world's largest consumer market for the precious metal. This year investors are watching the key market particularly closely, following a period of muted demand when bourses have rallied and supply has been choked. The recently elected government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi surprised industry analysts by keeping import controls unchanged in its July maiden budget, in spite of an improvement in India's trade balance. At the same time, gold demand has become subdued in India, as domestic investors favour equity markets, which have risen 25 per cent in the past six months on hopes of renewed economic growth following Mr Modi's victory in May. "We have been saying for about a year now that gold is not what it used to be," says Swapnil Pawar, business head at Karvy Capital, the asset management and investment advisory group. Last year duties on the precious metal were bolstered from 8 per cent to 10 per cent, and an "80-20" rule was introduced. The scheme allows agencies to import gold on the condition that one-fifth of the shipment is re-exported, helping balance India's trade bill. The moves followed a period of heavy buying as global gold prices dropped in early 2013, boosting imports and contributing to a broader currency crisis that hit India. The latest data from the World Gold Council, a trade body, show gold investment demand was down 62 per cent year-on-year to just 94.3 tonnes in the first half of 2014, while jewellery demand dipped 14 per cent year-on-year to 300 tonnes. Premiums – the added price traders in India are willing to pay above the global price once duties are paid – have dropped from highs of $150 per ounce to $30 per ounce, according to Kishore Narne, commodities analyst at Motilal Oswal, a Mumbai-based brokerage. "Last year was an unusual year – we had a booming April and May, which are generally low," said Ashok Minawala, former chairman of the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation. "You can't compare this year to last year at all." The drop has been more marked in neighbouring China amid a crackdown on corruption, allowing India to regain its place as the world's largest consumer market for the yellow metal in the second quarter of 2014. Consumer demand in China was down 52 per cent year-on-year in the three-month period, compared with a 39 per cent fall in India. In the coming months, the Indian market is likely to revive as sales are boosted by the festival and wedding season. Though a poor monsoon may hold back demand in rural areas, where household income is largely reliant on the agricultural sector, consumer confidence has improved following the May elections. Rakshit Ranjan, at Ambit Capital in Mumbai, estimates the gold industry grew between 15 and 20 per cent year-on-year in terms of sales and footfall around Onam, a celebration of harvest that took place in the south of India on Sunday. "Demand is definitely picking up because of the festival season approaching but we don't see a big spurt in the demand," said Surendra Mehta, secretary of the India Bullion and Jewellers' Association. "Only the people who need gold are buying now, there are no investors." Investors in India have largely been waiting to see when the government will lift import restrictions. In a preliminary step in May, the central bank allowed certain trading houses to import gold. That sparked a rise in imports, which grew to $7bn in the three months ended in June from $5.3bn in the previous quarter. Industry analysts insist the restrictions are temporary, but that New Delhi is in no hurry to initiate reforms. They expect the import restrictions to be dismantled later this year as the new rules have also sparked a rise in smuggling. "The government so far has been decisive, so they wouldn't like to flip-flop on this policy," says PR Somasundaram, managing director for India at the World Gold Council. Source:http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f2e2f570-3729-11e4-b45c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3CiSDc57o |
| 8 September 2014 - Gold well-supported by weak US jobs data Posted: 08 Sep 2014 03:00 AM PDT SINGAPORE: Gold held steady above US$1,260 an ounce on Monday, clinging to gains from the previous session on a disappointing US non-farm payrolls report that pressured the dollar, with investors also eyeing developments in the Ukraine crisis. Spot gold had eased slightly to US$1,267.54 an ounce by 0030 GMT, following a 0.6% gain on Friday after data showed US employers hired the fewest number of workers in eight months in August, providing a cautious Federal Reserve with more reasons to wait longer before raising interest rates. But safe-haven gold logged a weekly decline as Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels agreed on a ceasefire, seen as the first step towards ending a conflict in eastern Ukraine. A weaker euro also hurt bullion. Reflecting souring investor sentiment, hedge funds and money managers decreased their bullish futures and option bets in gold for a third consecutive week to the lowest since June, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Friday. Investors this week are eyeing the situation in Ukraine for any worsening of tensions that could lead to safe-haven demand for gold. Fighting has already flared up in eastern Ukraine overnight into Sunday, jeopardising a ceasefire struck less than two days earlier. Focus was also on Chinese trade data due later in the day which could likely add to recent signs of weakness in the world's No 2 economy. In other bullion news, the London Metal Exchange will not provide clearing services for over-the-counter trades in gold from Sept 22 after the London Bullion Market Association said its members would no longer supply price data for forward curves. Meanwhile Peru's gold output will likely drop by 20% this year and keep falling through 2016 as aging mines churn out less of the precious metal and a government crackdown curbs informal production, a ministry official said on Friday. – Reuters |
| 8 September 2014 - Gold prices gain in Asia on physical demand from India Posted: 08 Sep 2014 02:57 AM PDT Investing.com - Gold prices gain in Asia on Monday, underpinned by physical demand ahead of the main gold buying season in India. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for December delivery traded at $1,268.80 a troy ounce, up 0.12%, after gaining 0.06% to settle at $1,267.30 a troy ounce by close of trade on Friday. The Indian festival of lights, Diwali, lies ahead as well as a traditional time for wedding celebrations with gold a common gift on both occasions. Last week, gold futures bounced off a 12-week low to end mildly higher as investors returned to the market following the release of weaker than expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data for August. In a report, the Department of Labor said that the U.S. economy added 142,000 jobs in August, the lowest amount in eight months and less than the expected increase of 225,000. The report also showed that the U.S. unemployment rate ticked down to 6.1% last month from 6.2%, but that was mostly due to more people dropping out of the labor force. The weaker-than-expected jobs report was taken as a sign that the Federal Reserve will not begin raising interest rates anytime soon. Gold costs money to store and struggles to compete yield-bearing assets when interest rates are on the rise. Despite Friday's modest gains, Comex gold prices lost 1.56%, or $20.10, on the week, as the U.S. dollar rose to a 13-month peak against a basket of currencies. A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. A recent batch of upbeat data underlined optimism over the strength of the U.S. economy and fuelled expectations that the Fed will begin to raise rates sooner than previously thought. While the U.S. economy continues to gain steam, Fed Chair Janet Yellen has expressed concern over slackness persistent in the labor market. In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Friday's U.S. data on retail sales and consumer sentiment for further indications on the strength of the economic recovery and the possible future path of monetary policy. Also on the Comex, silver for December delivery rose 0.28% to $19.210 a troy ounce. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for December delivery climbed 0.21% to $3.177 a pound. |
| 8 September 2014 - 专家：正确影响下金价很容易上涨 料年底金价1450 Posted: 08 Sep 2014 02:54 AM PDT From:http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2014/09/08121817964471.shtml 上周五（9月5日）公布的美国8月非农数据远不及预期，跌至今年以来的最低水平，推动金价一度回升至1270美元/盎司上方。 美国劳工部（DOL）周五公布的数据显示，美国8月非农就业人数增加14.2万人，远不及于预期的增加23万人。尽管金价受该数据推动升至1270美元/盎司上方，但此后最终还是回落。 Lear Capital的黄金和白银主管Scott Carter称，这样的非农数据后，金价如此平淡的反应是很出乎意料的。 "一整年来我都是逆向投资者，像劳动参与率这样的数据是能够让美联储有所停顿的，我认为明年三月之前就升息的话，将会是非常让人吃惊的。" Carter还认为，黄金的纸市场和实物市场之间的不相关关系会自我修正。 "纸质市场会金价提供上限，但金价今年形成了一个坚固的基础，不需要太多因素就能突破。"他认为欧洲经济的进一步震荡或者美国股市10%到20%的修正可能会把资金重新推回到黄金市场中。 Carter预计今年年底金价将在1450美元/盎司左右，2014年应当是金价有所上涨的一年。"如果有正确的催化因素，那么金价到年底很容易就能上涨15%。" 今年4月以来金价一直在一定的震荡区间内，波动范围在8%左右，并且几乎有一半的时间中，日收盘均价相差1296约1%。 |
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