Silver prices | New “London <b>Silver Price</b>” Launching In Just Two Days - Confusion <b>...</b> |
- New “London <b>Silver Price</b>” Launching In Just Two Days - Confusion <b>...</b>
- Speculators Signal <b>Silver Price</b> Moves - ETF Daily News
- Why <b>Silver Prices</b> Are Rising Today - Money Morning
- 3 Reasons Why Now Is a Good Time to Buy <b>Silver</b> - Money Morning
- <b>Silver Price</b> Forecast - Metal to Gain Ground in August on These <b>...</b>
| New “London <b>Silver Price</b>” Launching In Just Two Days - Confusion <b>...</b> Posted: 13 Aug 2014 06:44 AM PDT New "London Silver Price" Launching In Just Two Days - Confusion Reigns
But so far no one has publicly stepped forward to say they will be involved even though testing of the system has gone without a hitch. The CME Group, whose Comex exchange offers the biggest silver futures contract, is providing the electronic price platform and the algorithm that will be used to set the auction's opening price. Thomson Reuters will take care of the governance and administration." Interestingly, the FT also reports that there may be significant buying of silver in the coming days: There is uncertainty as to whether the new price will be made publicly available through data providers, brokers etc. What we do know is that the LSP will be discovered through an electronic auction process. There will be no chairman; instead, the system algorithm will move the auction price up and down until buy and sell orders are matched to within a reasonable tolerance of 300,000 ounces. There will be a wider number of participants than the old fix, although we do not who they will be. In addition to the actual LSP price, it will theoretically be possible to follow the live auction process, observing net supply and demand at the various trial prices. Access to the LSP will initially be free but after an introductory period of six months a fee must be paid. There are many questions then that still need answering, not least what the auction data will look like and what it will cost to follow the LSP process live or observe the price live. FastMarkets will continue to do everything possible to secure this important silver benchmark for our customers. Dan Rees, head of strategy for commodities at Thomson Reuters, said last month that in order to facilitate a smooth transition, there would be no major alterations to the current set up for a period of six months. After that point a fee to access the new silver price is likely to be instated. The old silver fix ended in April, after Deutsche Bank withdrew from the process after the German financial regulator announced an investigation into the gold and silver fixes. This left only two banks on the fixing panel — Bank of Nova Scotia and HSBC Holdings who also under regulatory pressure may have decided to discontinue the fix. The LBMA led search for an alternative came as market regulators had been scrutinizing benchmarks across the financial sector in the wake of a scandal involving rigging of interest rates, foreign exchange and other markets. From our point of view, the replacement of a handful of banks with CME and Thomson Reuters was a positive development. However, the devil is in the detail and it is important that the new price discovery mechanism is transparent and that there is regulatory oversight. CME are the U.S.' largest and the world's second largest futures and options exchange and we would have a concern that the new fixes are derived solely from futures trading and electronic trading rather than from actual supply and demand in the physical market. We believe that the recent rigging of the gold price, as seen in the FCA's findings against Barclays, means that there should be financial regulation and oversight of the new fixing process by regulatory authorities. Silver Manipulation To End; $150 Per Ounce Possible - Video
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| Speculators Signal <b>Silver Price</b> Moves - ETF Daily News Posted: 12 Aug 2014 12:36 PM PDT
Commodities analysts like Money Morning's Resources Specialist PeterKrauth expect this to be the month silver rebounds from its disappointing July, where the white metal lost 3% following its uncharacteristically bullish June. But there's one big signal showing that August silver prices have a little more to drop before picking up again and climbing higher into the fall… Have you ever wondered how billionaires continue to get RICHER, while the rest of the world is struggling?"I study billionaires for a living. To be more specific, I study how these investors generate such huge and consistent profits in the stock markets -- year-in and year-out." CLICK HERE to get your Free E-Book, "The Little Black Book Of Billionaires Secrets" Speculators Signal Silver Price Moves I'm talking about the signal we're getting from the silver futures market… Short futures contracts are used as a bet against the price of silver, as traders holding these contracts will profit when the price falls. On the year, silver speculators and their volume of short contracts have had an almost perfect inverse correlation. As the accompanying chart shows, every time short futures contracts increased, prices fell. However, large shorting tends to work as a "contrarian indicator," Krauth said. As shorting peaks, traders sell for short-term gains, and the price rises. That's why the short sellers who follow the crowd and buy when shorting is high miss all the gains. "When there are few shorts, that leaves the price vulnerable to renewed short selling," managing partner at CPM Group, Jeffrey Christian, wrote in an email to Money Morning. "So, too, when there are a lot of longs, that leaves the price vulnerable to profit-taking selling by the longs." This pattern was evident just a couple of months ago. This past June's six-week rally came on the heels of increased speculator activity. Beginning on May 20, silver shorting began to hit record highs at 38,075 contracts. That number rose over the next two weeks before topping out at close to 49,000. At this time, silver was trading at yearly lows below $19. |
| Why <b>Silver Prices</b> Are Rising Today - Money Morning Posted: 06 Aug 2014 02:07 PM PDT August has in recent history been a strong month for silver prices, though coming off a weak July and held back by speculator activity, it is having a slow start to the month. But silver prices are rising today. New York spot silver, which trades continuously from 6 p.m. Sunday to 5:15 p.m. EDT Friday, pushed up over $20 an ounce at around 9:30 a.m. EDT after slipping below that point yesterday. Tuesday marked the first time that silver was trading below $20 since mid-June. Silver futures contracts for September delivery opened down 2.8% on the week at $19.79, but pushed back up above $20 and hovered around that level in the afternoon. The iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), an ETF linked closely with the price of silver that holds physical bullion in JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) vaults in New York and London, was down 1.6% at the time markets opened this morning, but traded up later in the day. The case was similar with the SLV alternative, ETFS Physical Silver Shares (NYSE: SIVR), which also opened the day down 1.6% but climbed as the day went on.Reasons for silver prices to rise today stem from foreign tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Last week, the United States and the European Union leveled sanctions against President Vladimir Putin's Russia for supporting pro-Russian rebels in Ukrainian territory and acting as a destabilizing force. Putin has since launched his own trade restrictions on agricultural products as a retaliatory measure.
On this conflict, gold saw a huge surge and moved back above the $1,300 level on the day. Precious metals tend to get a boost in times of fear, as it is sought out as a safe-haven investment vehicle. Silver tends to also get a boost as it receives residual precious metal investor interest. As for what tomorrow and the next few days will bring, expect silver to flatten out before picking up again. "August does tend to be a strong month, but given the action we've had for the past few days and where prices are right now I think we could see this [slow price movement] for the first half," said Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth. Expect prices picking up in the second half of the month. Go here for more on why gold prices today have skyrocketed above $1,300 an ounce... |
| 3 Reasons Why Now Is a Good Time to Buy <b>Silver</b> - Money Morning Posted: 08 Aug 2014 12:23 PM PDT We're looking at one of the best silver investing opportunities of the year right now... You see, silver took a hit in July, sinking 3% after an unseasonal June rally.
"For me, when [trading] stays kind of muted, then there's great opportunity where you don't have to rush in but you can step in," Richard Checkan, chief operating officer (COO) of Asset Strategies International in Rockville, Md., told Money Morning. Here are three reasons why we're buying silver now. Reason No. 1 to Buy Silver Now: Big Money investors are increasing silver holdings.When exchange-traded funds (ETFs) bulk up on silver holdings, the silver price rises - just as it falls when ETFs dump the metal. In the first six months of 2013, ETFs shed 5.2 million ounces of silver, representing a 0.8% decrease in physical holdings, according to data from Thomson Reuters. Silver then plummeted. The silver spot price dropped close to 40%, to just below $18.50, by the end of June. But from then on, ETFs reversed course. For the last six months of 2013, these ETFs' holdings increased by 6.7 million ounces. For the first six months of this year, the trend continued and ETFs added another 7 million ounces. In the yearlong period that followed the ETF selloffs in 2013, physical holdings grew 2.2%. Unsurprisingly, silver prices began to turnaround. From the end of June 2013 to the end of June this year, silver was up 7.7%. July did see a slight drop in ETF silver holdings, but the bulk of that action was due to profit-taking after an uncharacteristic silver price rise in June. ETF silver holdings are still up despite this slight July hiccup. Reason No. 2 to Buy Silver Now: Momentum indicators signal upcoming gains.The relative strength index (RSI) measures the scale of recent gains versus the magnitude of recent losses, and serves as a momentum indicator for when an asset is overbought or oversold. Its levels range from 0 to 100, though traders typically zero their focus between 30 and 70 when analyzing the RSI. As the RSI approaches 70, it is an indication that the asset is becoming overbought and is due for a downward correction. On the other hand, it is considered oversold as it approaches 30, and is readying itself for an upswing in momentum.
While only a short-term indicator, Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth said it's important that even as prices currently languish and trade in a small range, silver will need to hit an important $22 benchmark to set a new standard and attract a more aggressive bull run. The run at $22 could begin as the RSI correction takes hold, and the longer term price increases will follow. Reason No. 3 to Buy Silver Now: The silver price is unencumbered by a long-standing fixing mechanism.After 117 years, the process of setting the daily price benchmark for spot silver, known as the London Silver Fix, is coming to end. The system involved three banks, Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB), HSBC Holdings Plc. (NYSE ADR: HSBC), and The Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE: BNS), which comprise London Silver Market Fixing Ltd. The process begins when the fixing committee chairman first determines a benchmark price for silver. From there, he will collaborate with two other members to determine at what price selling interest and buying interest in silver are equal. This is done through a conference call that happens every day at noon. But free market advocates have long been critical of this process, which they say lends too much authority to a small coterie of banks, and works to artificially price silver. Scott Nicholson, a Washington D.C. investor brought a lawsuit to a federal court in Manhattan last week, alleging that these three banks are manipulating silver prices. "The extreme level of secrecy creates an environment that is ripe for manipulation," the complaint said, according to Bloomberg. "Defendants have a strong financial incentive to establish positions in both physical silver and silver derivatives prior to the public release of silver fixing results, allowing them to reap large illegitimate profits." In the spring, Deutsche Bank retired its position from the silver fixing committee, prompting the other participants to abandon their posts as well. The London Silver Fix will shut down on Aug. 14, in just one week. The new process for setting silver prices aims to be more transparent, in the face of claims that the previous mechanism was conducted in secrecy. The two participants will be Thomson Reuters, which will be in charge of administration and governance, and the CME Group, which will provide an electronic auction platform that will determine prices by an algorithm, as opposed to an individual decree. If the silver fix's critics are right, this change may provide an opportunity for silver prices to move more naturally with the market. And with demand fundamentals still strong, right now may be a perfect opportunity to buy. "If silver's price is in fact being manipulated, it can't go on forever," Krauth said. "The bright side is, it's arguably holding silver prices artificially low... for now, providing would-be investors with the opportunity to buy in cheap." Junior miners can be among the most speculative and volatile stocks on earth, and in the last three years have lost 58% as a group compared to the S&P 500's 52% gain. But it looks like a new boom phase is on its way, and junior miners could return more than 10 times the gains of the S&P 500... Related Articles: |
| <b>Silver Price</b> Forecast - Metal to Gain Ground in August on These <b>...</b> Posted: 06 Aug 2014 07:40 AM PDT By: Money_Morning
One reason for a rosy silver price forecast for August is that the white metal has finished up every year in this month for the last five years, averaging a return of 10.4%. In the last 10 years, silver has finished up seven times and averaged a 3.6% month-long return. The last two years have been even better - silver tallied double-digit gains in August, with an astounding 19.3% surge in 2013. July traded down this month, with silver slipping 3%. In 2010, when silver lost 3.8% in July, it rebounded with a strong August, netting 7.9% returns. Silver is also up about one dollar, or 5% this year, providing for a high ceiling and a lot of upside potential. "With silver only up slightly year to date, I think odds are good we'll see it gain some ground in August," said Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth. "We could well see trading pick up this month." Last year, trading volume increased by 65.1% in August and is most likely going to pick up significantly because July is historically a slow month as the markets settle into the summer doldrums. Even though silver prices lost a little more than 3% in July, a month where silver has been up an average 4.2% over the last ten years, silver's decline shouldn't come as a big surprise given the peculiar June rally silver experienced and the unusual market factors undergirding June's 14% surge. Record Speculation Leads to Unheard Of June Gains This June was something of an outlier. Over the last 20 years, June had never returned a double-digit percentage increase in silver prices until 2014's 11.9% figure. In fact, on average, the last 20 years have seen 1.4% declines in silver prices on the month. And in June last year, silver plunged 12%. But the beginning of June 2014 saw speculators betting against silver in numbers that haven't been seen before. On June 3, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report showed that non-commercial traders - also known as speculators - had staked out about 49,000 short positions on silver. This was the third record-setting week in a row. But at the same time, silver was experiencing a punishing bear cycle. After topping out in late February with closing prices above $22, silver plummeted 15% and prices were dipping below $19 an ounce. As traders saw silver bottoming out, they rushed out of their short positions and renewed long purchases, giving silver a sustained lift. It also helped that U.S. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen, following a Federal Market Open Committee (FOMC) meeting, maintained her stance that interest rates would remain low for a "considerable" period. When interest rates stay low for too long, and stimulative central bank policy continues to flood the economy with money, investors begin fearing inflation and will flock to precious metals as a hedge against the potential of a weakening dollar. On the day of the Fed meeting, silver prices shot up 4.3%. Unexpectedly Hot June Sets Path for Slow July It's no surprise that this unprecedented rally had traders looking to lock in profits at three-month highs, making the 3% decline mostly a function of natural market processes. "I have to say that I do think this is simply the market's healthy process of profit taking," Krauth said, "In the grand scheme, not a very big deal, as that's less than 5%." And the sell-off was also felt in funds linked to the price of physical silver. Over the last 12 months, silver ETFs had added 13.7 million ounces to their total holdings for a 2.2% increase, according to analyst data from Thomson Reuters GFMS. This was a reversal from the first half of 2013, when these ETFs shed 5.2 million ounces for a 0.8% decrease. But despite silver getting a strong endorsement from ETFs going into 2014, July saw a slight trimming in holdings of about 10,000 ounces. This was after ETFs boosted their physical silver portfolios by about 7 million ounces in the first six months of the year. For silver to begin to catch steam, Krauth said it's important that it hits $22, which it briefly brushed up against in February before languishing in the three months to follow. That will serve as an important bullish indicator that could attract more investment and lift prices even higher. The price of silver will need to advance about 8% in August to reach this important benchmark. Last year it gained 19.3% on the month, and in 2012 it shot up 13.4%. Krauth isn't certain that silver will get there just yet. "I'm not sure silver will be able to break through the critical $22 level in August, but I think odds are good it will do so this fall," Krauth said. And the momentum built from that could carry prices to the $24 level not long after, Krauth added. The London Silver Fix is shutting down this month after 117 years, unencumbering the white metal from the artificially low price fixes set by a small coterie of banks. With demand for physical silver hitting all-time highs, and market forces overtaking manipulation, now is the time to jump in on the coming silver bull market... Money Morning/The Money Map Report ©2014 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. 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What has further worried international observers is the fear that Russia will invade Ukraine, using humanitarian intervention as a pretext. Tensions have escalated in Donetsk, an industrial Ukrainian city that lies on the border of Russia, as pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces renewed clashes last night that claimed the lives of 18 Ukrainian servicemen, Voice of America reported.
This decline, though, is not a bad thing - it's a great opportunity to 
As the chart shows, between mid-June and early July, as silver was experiencing a six-week rally, the RSI indicator suggested that silver was overbought and prices eventually adjusted accordingly. Since then, the RSI has been steadily approaching that crucial 30 level. When investors see that the white metal is oversold, it could trigger a buying spree and help push up silver prices.
Jim Bach writes: Silver prices may have had an unremarkable July, trading down 3%, but if recent history is any indication, August could help steer prices in the right direction and draw in the bulls.
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