Gold price | Need for Speed Rivals, Garden Warfare nab Deals With <b>Gold price</b> <b>...</b> |
- Need for Speed Rivals, Garden Warfare nab Deals With <b>Gold price</b> <b>...</b>
- Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: The <b>Gold Price</b> Reached $1,291.90 Today <b>...</b>
- Why The <b>Gold Price</b> Is Trendless | Gold Silver Worlds
- Is A Looming War Coincident With A Depressed <b>Gold Price</b> And <b>...</b>
- The <b>Gold Price</b> Sits on the Buying Opportunity of 2014
- Bond Curves Flattening, <b>Gold Price</b> Coiling | David Stockman's <b>...</b>
| Need for Speed Rivals, Garden Warfare nab Deals With <b>Gold price</b> <b>...</b> Posted: 26 Aug 2014 09:30 AM PDT
 This week's Xbox One deals include a 60-percent discount on the Killer Instinct add-on character Sabrewulf and 33-percent-off sales on Need for Speed Rivals DLC. Xbox 360 highlights include price drops for Shadow Complex, Crysis 3, Watch Dogs, Guacamelee, and Fallout: New Vegas. The Xbox Binge Watch and Play Sale also kicks off this week with deep discounts for dozens of featured games, including Rayman Legends, The Walking Dead: Season Two, Murdered: Soul Suspect, and Plants vs Zombies Garden Warfare. Sale prices are effective through next week. [Image: EA]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: The <b>Gold Price</b> Reached $1,291.90 Today <b>...</b> Posted: 26 Aug 2014 04:59 PM PDT
This reminds me of George Washington. He was a terrible tactician and general, but he had one quality that made him victorious: he wouldn't quit. No matter how many times he was beaten, no matter how much congress quarreled and quibbled and backbit, no matter how hopeless the Americans' outlook appeared, he never quit. In a significantly lesser matter, gold reminds me today of Washington. It's coming back. It's hammering at the ceiling, then hammering again. It's climbed back above its 200 day moving average after bouncing off that uptrend line from the December low. Tomorrow above the GOLD PRICE lurks the downtrend line form the October 2012 high about $1,297.50. That is gold's first step to breaking free. The SILVER PRICE performance today was unlike gold's. It climbed to a high about 9:30 a.m. Eastern time, then broke and slid back to 1940c. It closed Comex up 2.8 cents (0.14%) at 1938.6. Yesterday it fell 2.8 cents. What is this, a game? Just above silver is its 20 DMA at 1982c. It needs to cross that first, but the first formidable hurdle is 2000c, and the 200 DMA now about the same spot, namely, 2010c. This is better than silver has looked for more than a month. The headlines screamed that the S&P500 closed above 2000, and that's true -- by 0.02, because it rose 0.11% or 2.10 to close at 2,000.2, a new high close and a new intraday high, also (2005.04). Dow (barely) made a new intraday high at 17,153.80 over 17 July's 17,151.56. Dow rose 29.83 (0.17%) to close at 17,106.70 , not a new high close. That brings the S&P500 close to the 2,020 top of its upper range line. Both indices have posted double tops, but that says nothing unless followed by a significant decline. Indicators are stretched out to the upside. It's a mania, so nearly impossible to predict. Dow in gold dropped today, 0.46% to 13.31 oz (G$275.14 gold dollar). Dow in silver rose 0.89% to 884.12 oz (S$1,143.10 silver dollars). Somewhere soon we should see double tops and turns in both these indicators. What's the answer for anxiousness? Simply to watch patiently. US Dollar Index, sucking tick on the world's economic jugular vein, rose another 11 basis points (0.13%) today to 82.69, only six basis points off my 82.75 target. Can it rise higher? Certainly, but it is now in the fifth leg up of this advance, which argues for a soon end to upwardness. RSI is more overbought than Facebook. 'Twill break soon, or my name isn't Barack Obama. Euro continues to fall, another 0.16% today to $1.3171. It has left two gaps behind and reached the target implied by the little narrow triangle it broke down from, and it is more oversold than government promises to care for you in old age. Ought to turn up soon, unless of course the Europeans do something else stupid like sanctions on Russia or their own brand of Quantitative Easing -- which is an ever present possibility. Yen closed flat today at 96.12 but traded higher during the day. In other words, it bounced off the bottom boundary of its 9 month trading range. Tells us nothing yet, since it would pause here anyway even if it planed to punch through and drop to the bottom of the Pacific. I don't talk about it much but I watch the 10 year Treasury note yield every day. It plunged through important support line early in August, but has since made a double bottom -- on spikes, no less -- and may turn around if it can close through its 20 DMA, now 2.436%. Closed today at 2.391%. SPECIAL OFFER -- TIME TRAVEL Did y'all ever wish you could travel back in time? Here's your ticket: US $20 Double Eagles, the great gold coin of the classical U.S. gold standard. These big golden cartwheels contain nearly a full ounce of gold (0.9675 troy ounce). The obverse shows a head of Liberty, the reverse the heraldic American Eagle. These coins were minted in the same weight and fineness (21.5 karat or 90% pure) from 1850 through 1907. The long sleepy doldrums in the gold market have eroded the premium on all grades of US $20 gold pieces, and that's just what attracted my attention. You can buy these Very Fine (VF) grade $20 Liberty Double Eagles for $1,335.25, only 7.5% over their gold value. That's only about $10 an ounce more than you would pay for currently minted US American Eagles. Which would I rather have, an American Eagle minted last year or these $20 Double Eagles minted more than 100 years ago? Which would be easier to sell? The question answers itself. Normally I wouldn't recommend any numismatic coins because they carry too high a premium, but at these low premiums they're a reasonable buy either as an investment in gold bullion or a survival coin. Note that "Very Fine" grade is a circulated, not a Mint State grade, so these coins will show some wear. I guarantee however that they have full gold content. Spot price basis is $1,284.00. Dates are our choice. OFFER NO. 1 Two (2) each VERY FINE $20 Liberty-type gold Double Eagles at $1,335.25 each for a total of $2,670.50 plus $35 shipping for a grand total of $2,705.50. That's a premium of 7.5% over melt value. One lot totals 1.9350 troy oz. fine gold NOTE: I will charge shipping only once per order no matter how many lots you buy. OFFER NO. 2 Four (4) each VERY FINE $20 Liberty-type gold Double Eagles at $1,335.25 each for a total of $5,341.00 plus $35 shipping for a grand total of $5,376.00. That's a premium of 7.5% over melt value. One lot totals 3.8700 troy oz. fine gold OFFER NO. 3 Ten (10) each VERY FINE $20 Liberty-type gold Double Eagles at $1335.250 each for a total of $13,352.50 plus $35 shipping for a grand total of $13,387.50. That's a premium of 7.5% over melt value. One lot totals 9.6750 troy oz. fine gold NOTE: I will charge shipping only once per order no matter how many lots you buy. Special Conditions: First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your email Send email to offers@the-moneychanger.com Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above. All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. It increases your chances of getting your order filled if you offer me a second choice, e.g., "I want to order Three lots of Offer #3 but if not available will take One lot of Offer #2." ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS: 1. You may order by e-mail only to offers@the-moneychanger.com. No phone orders, please. Please do NOT order by replying to THIS email, because it will not reach me timely. Please include your name, shipping address, and phone number in your email. Surprising as it is, we cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee. Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. We will read your mind, but will have to charge you three times the price. Cheaper if you just supply your information so I don't have to read your mind. 2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, and you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down. If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you. 3. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted. 4. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail. 5. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled. 6. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours. 7. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. 8. Mention goldprice.org in the email. Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check. Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Why The <b>Gold Price</b> Is Trendless | Gold Silver Worlds Posted: 25 Aug 2014 04:51 AM PDT "The price of gold is going nowhere," despite being seasonally in its strongest month and geopolitical destabilization. On the other hand, the dollar rally is putting pressure on gold. The chart shows gold's performance since the start of this year. What is going on and why is gold (and silver) not trending?  the price of gold is trendless in the last 5 months In our view, the answer lies is in opposing forces at work in the markets and economy. There are two very important drivers which we discuss in this article: real interest rates and the inflation/deflation tug of war. First, there is the relationship between the gold price vs the US 10 year real yield with the real yield being the nominal yield on a government bond adjusted for inflation expectations. Advisor Perspectives, a group of advisors focused on investment strategy, writes: "There is historical evidence to show that gold has tended to perform best in an environment of falling and low real interest rates and perform poorly in an environment of rising and high real interest rates. Arguably 'falling and low real interest rates' accurately describes the current environment here in the US and other major economies such as the European Union, the UK and Japan and as such in the charts below we examine the recent relationship between real yields in each of these countries and the price of gold expressed in the local currency to see if there are any discernible patterns." In the following two charts, the vertical, real yield axis has been inverted with values reading from high to low moving upwards on the axis (in order to make the direction of the two data series consistent on the chart with lower real yields being associated with high gold prices).  euro gold vs real interest rates show a divergence in the last months  dollar gold vs real interest rates are correlating but only slightly diverging lately A significant divergence has occurred with German real yields and Gold/Euro with the real yield falling from +0.40% to -0.32% since December 2013. Advisor Perspectives sees two possibilities going forward: "Assuming there has been no structural breakdown in the relationship, in each case we would expect that either the real yield will bottom-out and start to rise or the price of gold in local currency will rise to close the gap. However, absent an economic trigger to push real yields higher, in particular in the Eurozone which is currently battling strong disinflationary forces, we would expect that the more likely outcome would be for gold prices to be supported at current levels or perhaps move higher over the next few months." As a general rule, the inflation/deflation war is undoubtedly one of the key drivers in the gold market. As the previous chart showed, the deflationary pressure in Europe is probably causing the divergence between real interest rates and euro gold. This will resolve, either by deflation fading away andpushing gold higher. Alternatively, deflation wins the tug of war, resulting in lower gold prices. In line with this thought, an interesting chart was posted by professional trader Dan Norcini, see below. It evidenced that the TIPS spread took a sharp plunge over the last few weeks. It sits at the lowest level in 9 weeks. "Clearly, there has been a change in the market's expectations regarding any onslaught of inflation pressures."  TIPS spread pointing down of late, evidencing a lack of inflationary pressure The opposing inflation/deflation pressures are reflected in the futures positions of big investors. As evidenced by Dan Norcini, professional futures trader, in one of his latest market commentaries, in which he explains continued lack of consensus among the big speculators as to the true state of the global economy.
Dan Norcini writes on his personal blog: "It is this shifting sentiment which is wreaking havoc among some of the trend following systems and has sent some of the individual commodity markets into their current range trade or sideways pattern. Clearly, investors/traders are looking at some signs of economic improvement but they are also seeing geopolitical events and other factors which are making them second guess themselves. There is no clear cut conviction outside of the equity market traders as to which way things are going."  a big divergence in gold futures positions reflect a difference in inflation/deflation expectations | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Is A Looming War Coincident With A Depressed <b>Gold Price</b> And <b>...</b> Posted: 27 Aug 2014 02:38 AM PDT Is a looming war coincident with a depressed gold price and a stock market peak an example of — staring into the great abyss? From Peter Cooper:
James Rickards regarding the crisis with LTCM in 1998 and the banking crisis in 2008:
James Rickards on the Fed and money printing:
The world has looked over the edge of the great abyss many times before. Supposedly the financial world was close to collapse during the LTCM crisis and also during the Paulson TARP crisis. Regarding another great abyss from Zero Hedge:
And today leverage and the derivatives market is MANY times larger than it was in 1998-99. And the geopolitical situation seems much more dangerous and unstable than in 1998-99. And the groups in the middle-east are most definitely not "playing nice" with each other. And many more nations are bypassing the use of the US dollar for international trading. And the mood of the people, so it seems, in Europe, the U.S. and the U.K. is much darker and less confident than in the "dot-com" exuberance of 1999. And 9-11 and all of the after-effects had not yet happened in 1998-99. The next crisis/correction/crash might be far worse than the 2000 – 2002 debacles or the 2008 financial crisis. Further, US stocks look like they are in a bubble similar to 1999 and 2000. Consider the following monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index since 1984. Notice the blue line peaks in 1987, 1994, 2000, 2007, and 2014. A major stock market peak every 7 years deserves our attention, especially since it is peaking along with dollar and bond bubbles (generational low interest rates), massive global QE, geopolitical disasters, foreign policy failures, and the probability of new and devastating wars. From General Martin E. Dempsey, U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff regarding ISIS and expanding the war in Iraq and nearby countries:
The same article goes on to state that:
And "truly defeating ISIS would require full scale war that would involve fighting in Iraq and Syria." The looming war coincident with an all-time stock market peak and other distortions is the edge of the abyss. A new war, a derivative crash, a spike in crude oil prices, another scandal, a dollar collapse, or perhaps a failure to deliver on gold contracts could trigger a stock market correction/crash, another massive debt increase, and an upward spike in the price of gold. Gold has gone down for nearly three years, while the stock market has gone up for well over five years. The reversal may not occur tomorrow or next month, but it will occur. This is, in my opinion, a time for caution in the stock and bond markets and for purchases of gold and silver. It is better to leave the Wall Street party early than to crowd the exit doors with about 500 million others who overstayed their welcome at the Wall Street "stocks always go up" extravaganza. Furthermore the "high-frequency-traders" can levitate the S&P and suppress gold prices for only so long. Eventually the prices for bonds, stocks and gold will be reset in accordance with the realities of massive "money printing," exponentially increasing debt, generational-low interest rates, huge deficits, escalating war in the middle-east, and Asian purchases of physical (not paper) gold. Market peaks, market crashes, political crises, wars, deficits, debts, and cycles of confidence and despair seem to be inevitable in our current financial structure. Are you prepared? Additional reading Alasdair Macleod Ukraine: A Perspective From Europe GE Christenson | The Deviant Investor | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The <b>Gold Price</b> Sits on the Buying Opportunity of 2014 Posted: 25 Aug 2014 03:05 PM PDT
The SILVER PRICE continues to slide down that downtrend line from the 2013 high. For both silver and GOLD PRICES, I have to ask, Why haven't they broken down? Short answer is that buyers are waiting for these low prices. Another part of the answer is lack of interest. Silver's range today was 1930c to 1947c, gold's $1,281.6 to $1,276.10. Only thing that could cancel a rosy outlook for silver and gold prices is a sudden drop through these levels.
But inflation doesn't result from any act by the economy weak or strong, it can only be done by a central bank, because it is creating new money. But the point of this moronism is the lame idea that somehow new inflationary money can stimulate the economy. In fact, it can only cripple the economy, because it makes money artificially cheap which fools entrepreneurs into investing in unprofitable ventures -- in short, wasting capital. So the result of inflation is not only picking the pockets of all savers, but also misdirecting capital so that a temporary economic crisis can become chronic. Here's proof: the US Federal Reserve has been stimulating the US economy since 2008, and the "economic recovery" remains one with the Yeti and Bigfoot. Never mind, they keep on doing it anyway, because if they ever stop printing money, their whole system will collapse. Stocks today continued rising higher into irrationality. S&P500 hit 2000 but closed below at 1,997.92, up 9.52 or 0.48%. That was a new high for the S&P500, but not the Dow. It rose 75.65 (0.44%) to 17,076.87. Last high was 17,138.20 on 16 July. It has become pointless to drag out measures of overvaluation for you. In the end reality will take its vengeance. Dow in silver rose 0.66% to 882.16 oz (S$1,140.57 silver dollars), still heading for a double top with June's high at 892.99 oz (S$1,154.57). Dow in gold rose 0.67% to 13.35 oz (G$275.97 gold dollars). Same show playing here, toward the June high at 13.53 oz (G$279.69). US Dollar Index rose 19 basis points to 82.58, pushing close to my top target at 82.75. This might mark a top that would last a while, which would help gold. Yen today at 96.14 (down 0.1%) has reached the bottom of a 15 month trading range. Must turn up here or dive. Euro lost 0.38% to $1.3194. Euro is greatly oversold, so may show a corrective reversal soon. In the teeth of news about as bad as it could get, a surging dollar, and a break of $1,280 support last week, gold held its ground. Oh, it lost a meager $1.30 (0.1%) to close Comex at 1,277.30. Spot silver also held firm, losing 2.8 cents (0.14%) to 1935.8c. Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bond Curves Flattening, <b>Gold Price</b> Coiling | David Stockman's <b>...</b> Posted: 23 Aug 2014 10:20 AM PDT There is a growing bid for safety in almost every corner of the globe at this moment, save for a few outliers. Even the 10-year JGP sits at 50 bps today despite the spike in consumer inflation engineered by the Bank of Japan's QQE. Of course, with BoJ buying up almost everything in sight, that may not be a relevant indication of anything but a huge scam by which banks can sell bond inventory to a central bank at any obscene premium they wish. QQE aside, however, there is a persistent flattening across the globe. Yield curves are coming down in what looks like an almost coordinated fashion. The timing in each isn't exact with regard to initiation, but the broad-based movement is, I believe, quite telling. In Europe, fears over re-re-recession are now growing loudly despite the first major instance of a central bank establishing a negative nominal rate floor. No matter what the ECB throws at the hopelessly fragmented euro-denominated financial system, "inflation" continues to head toward zero while the economy failed to even register any significant positives before heading backward again. In short, not much progress was made before giving way, possibly, to further deterioration. In response to, and in some cases in advance of, that, bond markets are repeating their recent history. Germany and Denmark flirt with negative yields centered around the 2-year maturity, which, however, makes less sense today than 2012 when it at least related to the broadening LTRO's of that point. Today's T-LTRO's should not have the same impact on bond market expectations, but maybe there is simply comfort in that tenor that goes well beyond financial considerations into the emotional. The Swiss curve has moved around in jagged fashion, but the flattening there stands out regardless. But what may be most important is that swap spreads have been compressing quite considerably recently, indicating that there is more than a little expectation for all of this "fear trade" to persist and even lengthen. In my judgment, what is hitting the credit markets in Europe is not just a dour sense of impending economic reverse, but the beginnings of doubt over central bank effectiveness as it relates to almost everything promised and tried. These movements have been relatively minor to this point, which could mean that only a small segment is heading in that direction, or that perhaps this is nothing but a trivial trend that will extinguish itself without wider participation. That latter possibility might be more compelling if the other side of the Atlantic weren't months ahead on the very same track. The US bond markets, like those even in eurodollars, have been bear flattening for many months, and it doesn't appear as if there is anything (yet) to derail that trend. This has gone well past any possibility of action/reaction, as in a reversion to the "mean" after last year's selloff. In terms of the overall UST curve shape, this is a distinct event with its own interpretations and implications, none of which are positive reflections on economic and financial considerations. In a broad curve sense, away somewhat from the immediate impact of QE, the flattening is as compressed as anything since 2009. If this curve dynamic is reflective of nominal economic expectations, then it follows very closely the track of the economy and its utter disappointment since the "recovery" began. There were great expectations that suddenly died in late 2010 as commodity prices were "tempted" upward too rapidly, and then a broad slowing in 2012. While the Fed tried its best to sell the economy in 2013 as it headed toward taper, that only "worked" in the bond markets and only slightly until the blowout in mortgages. Since then, going back now nine full months, the accelerated flattening has been nothing short of single-minded. Like that of Europe, this looks increasingly like pessimism writ large in not just inflation expectations, but also long and short-term growth expectations and ultimately much less benefit of the doubt for monetary efficacy. This is, perhaps, the most intense second-guessing in the age of interest rate targeting, soft central planning. Unlike 2007-08, there is no global liquidity turmoil of such scope that might explain decoupling of credit markets from Fed intentions. So why haven't we seen a greater move toward "tail risk" insurance? That is a question without much answer at this point, particularly as gold prices are stuck right around $1,300 without fail. The gyrations centered on that axis are even growing more compressed, as the standard deviations of gold price movements fall to lows. In gold, however, such limpness in price behavior has not been that uncommon in the past few years. In fact, you can point to similar trends that predated the big move up in 2011 and the big collapse in 2013. In 2011 as the euro crisis moved similarly from total faith in central banks to near total disbelief in them, a second banking affair threatening a second "Lehman" moment, gold prices were conspicuously left out of the growing fear trade. For three months during the worst of the rumors and innuendo about a euro breakup, gold was stuck seemingly stapled at $1,525. I'm not suggesting that a rerun of 2011 is close or even much of a consideration at this point, only that gold has its own unique set of circumstances that don't lend to exact or corresponding interpretations in the shorter terms. Even with that in mind, I can't help but think that whatever balance is holding gold prices in check here is starting to weigh more toward demand for "tail risk" than talk about a gold bubble and central bank blind faith. With credit markets around the world displaying those very signals it stands to reason that as pessimism rises, even slow and incrementally, there will come a point when doubt transitions to something like more serious concerns – not necessarily fear, but a displacement of all the complacency stored up since the end of 2011 that was artificially encoded by central banks. That is what all this amounts to, a reversal, maybe just its initiation right now, of the paradigm that kept favorability running for almost three years. Central banks at the end of 2011 and into 2012 promised all sorts of means by which to create the mythical recovery, which would have cured so many, if not all, nagging problems and imbalances left over from the Great Recession and panic. "Markets" gave central banks the benefit of the doubt about those promises and reacted and priced as if they were to come true; going so far as to even remove all thoughts of "tail risk." Even central banks are admitting not just folly about those promises but even deeper problems that run into the longer-terms beyond the reach, so they tell us now, of monetary experimentation. At the same time, there are some admissions of actual costs to having been so intrusive these past years, totally changing the paradigm of expectations. The rock that begins to roll downhill does so very slowly, almost imperceptibly, at first, long before it becomes the avalanche. I'm not proclaiming that such is the case right now, only trying to suggest a possibility that is large enough to be a paradigm shift, opening up a lot of potential results that didn't seem to exist only a few months or a year ago – many of which are unpleasant in their ends. Click here to sign up for our free weekly e-newsletter. "Wealth preservation and accumulation through thoughtful investing."For information on Alhambra Investment Partners' money management services and global portfolio approach to capital preservation, contact us at: jhudak@alhambrapartners.com or 561-686-6844 . You can also book an appointment for a free, no-obligation consultation using our contact form.  |
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