Gold price | <b>Gold Prices</b> From 1971 To 2014 in 3 Waves | Gold Silver Worlds |
- <b>Gold Prices</b> From 1971 To 2014 in 3 Waves | Gold Silver Worlds
- <b>Gold Prices</b> 1971 - 2014 in 3 Waves :: The Market Oracle :: Financial <b>...</b>
- US growth, inflation numbers drop <b>gold price</b> through $1,300 <b>...</b>
- Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: The <b>Gold Price</b> Leapt Up $12.30 to $1,293.60
- <b>Gold Price</b> Advance Capped by the Dead Cat Dollar's Recovery <b>...</b>
| <b>Gold Prices</b> From 1971 To 2014 in 3 Waves | Gold Silver Worlds Posted: 31 Jul 2014 01:31 PM PDT Ignore the hype regarding gold, bonds, booms and busts, hope and chains, "shock and awe," stock market crashes, "money honey" commentary, and ignore the politicians. Don't obsess over High-Frequency-Trading and market manipulation. Instead, focus on the big picture as shown in the following chart of monthly gold, which has been divided into 3 phases since 1971. Phase 1: Gold rallied from about $42 in 1971 to over $800 in 1980, thanks to massive money printing, debts, deficits, wars, and a loss of confidence in the US dollar. Phase 2: Gold prices crashed subsequent to the bubble of 1979-80, and then drifted lower for about 20 years. It double bottomed in 1999 and 2001. Phase 3: Gold rallied off the 2001 low of about $255 to over $1,900 in August 2011. Since then it has corrected to under $1,200, and double bottomed in June and December 2013. Current price is about $1,300. How Will Gold Prices Change in the next 3 – 5 Years? Option 1: Gold prices will continue rising, erratically of course, within the green "megaphone" pattern shown above. In my opinion this option is the most likely unless we descend into a global deflationary depression and/or nuclear winter, which the politicians and bankers will do "whatever it takes" to avoid. or Option 2: Gold prices continue falling much like they did subsequent to the 1980 bubble high. I consider this option unlikely. What Else Supports Option 1 – Higher Prices?
What Else Supports Option 2 – Lower Prices?
CONCLUSIONS This is not 1979 or 1980 when political and economic conditions were drastically different. Perhaps a better analogy would be about 50 years ago (1964) when the Vietnam War was escalating, US citizens were angry and marching in the streets, a gallon of gasoline cost 25 cents, coffee in a restaurant cost ten cents, and a decent middle-class wage was $2.50 per hour. The subsequent 20 years were life-changing and financially difficult for many people. Consumer prices increased drastically, the purchasing power of savings was destroyed, and people lost confidence in government and the US dollar. Gold prices will rally much higher in the next 5 years. Jim Sinclair's initial target of $3,500 seems very likely by 2016 – 2019. If the powers-that-be choose hyperinflation to deal with their massive debts, then much higher prices are "in play." There are many other options. For example, if you don't trust or like gold, a bank will pay you 1% interest each and every year if you invest in a Certificate of Deposit. Additional Reading: GE Christenson | The Deviant Investor  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| <b>Gold Prices</b> 1971 - 2014 in 3 Waves :: The Market Oracle :: Financial <b>...</b> Posted: 01 Aug 2014 07:15 PM PDT By: DeviantInvestor
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| US growth, inflation numbers drop <b>gold price</b> through $1,300 <b>...</b> Posted: 30 Jul 2014 06:59 AM PDT The gold price fell below the psychologically important $1,300 an ounce level on Wednesday after strong economic data outweighed safe haven buying on geopolitical concerns. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for August delivery in early morning trade exchanged hands for $1,294.60 an ounce, down $5.60 from Tuesday's trading session. US gross domestic product grew at a 4% annual pace in the second quarter, according to government data released Wednesday. First quarter number were also adjusted, showing a smaller contraction. The much better than expected numbers – led by robust consumer spending and a pickup in construction and business investment – boosted the dollar which usually move in the opposite direction of the gold price. The data also strengthens the case for an accelerated winding down of the US Federal Reserve's economic stimulus program and a sooner than anticipated rise in US interest rates. Higher rates increases the opportunity costs of holding gold because the metal is not income producing. Clouding the picture further was a 2% annualized rise in US inflation at its strongest rate in three years, which could also prompt a hike in rates. Though off its highs for the year gold is still up some 9% in 2014. The key US employment report on Friday will give further direction for US monetary policy and the gold price. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: The <b>Gold Price</b> Leapt Up $12.30 to $1,293.60 Posted: 01 Aug 2014 06:27 PM PDT
I wasn't here watching markets today but the daily chart shows the gold price sleeping along between $1,282 and $1,286 until about 9:30 when sellers tried to slam it. Wasn't having any of that, and rose straight up from $1,281 to $1,296 in about half an hour. It's time for us to start talking about the possibility that the GOLD PRICE has fallen as much as it means to fall. Hard to tell on a Friday close when much of the rise may be cause by shortsellers covering their positions before the weekend, but a close above $1,300 on Monday will lend credence to that "we've seen the bottom" theory. The SILVER PRICE (like the gold price) closed above its 200 DMA but barely, 2033.2 against 2030c. Silver and gold prices keep gainsaying each other, one up and the other down, day after day. That puzzles me, but seems strong rather than weak, as does their stubbornness here at the last lows. Yet I am patient, and know that silver must clear 2100c before we get excited, and 2163 (July high) before it confirms a rally. The gold price must close above $1,330, then $1,346.80 before it confirms a turnaround. Of course, that's $40 - $56 higher. How far might they fall? I think the lowest possible low for silver is 1980c, and for gold $1,265. But what do I know? I'm no more'n a natural born durn fool from Tennessee! This week the Dow suffered its worst weekly loss in six months (2.8%), the S&P500 its worst weekly loss in two years (2.7%). Silver and gold were battered but not routed, and the US dollar index rallied convincingly. Not convincingly enough for me to buy the nasty, mangy thing, but convincingly still. "Lawsa mercy!" as my country aunts used to say, stocks took a big-stick whupping this week. Dow fell out of a rising bearish wedge -- called "bearish" because it generally ends with the market falling down -- then through more internal resistance, and then -- O, THEN -- it sliced clean through the uptrend line from March 2009. Having long ago left behind its 50 (16,876) and 20 (16,962) day moving averages, it is now zeroing in on the 200 DMA at 16,322. Dow has now fallen 3.75% from its last (and all time high) at 17,138.2 on 16 July. Is this the Ultimate Break and reversal we've been waiting for? Too soon to tell yet, but it ought at least usher in that ephemeral 10% correction everyone is mumbling about, namely, a correction to 15,424. Dow did break the uptrend line on its weekly chart. Y'all bear in mind that along the way waterfall drops like this one always experience corrections sharp enough to fool even the wise into believing the decline has ended. This Dow has much further to fall still. Iguaçu, Niagara, Victoria, doesn't matter what you call the S&P500, it is a cataract. However, it had risen further from its moving averages than the Dow, so probably has more to correct. Today's close left it down 3.16% from the 24 July high at 1,987.98. Stopped today at the last (June) low. Next support comes from the last (May) high at 1,902. Finally down there at 1,858 stands the 200 DMA. The uptrend line from the March 2009 low today stands about 1,840. O, my, the Dow in gold PLUMMETED today. It left behind 1.35% to close at G$263.15 gold dollars (12.73 oz), having punctured its 20 DMA (G$267.91 or 12.96 oz) long ago. It halted bare inches from its 200 DMA (G$262.33 or 12.69 oz). Once it finds the trapdoor at the 200 DMA AND closes below the uptrend line from August 2011 (now about G$210.85 or 10.20 oz), the entire DiG's correction from 2011 - 2014 can be declared dead. Y'all, don't push on me now, because I'm trying to resist gloating. Dow in silver dropped just a leetle today to end at S$1,048.67 silver dollars (811.08 oz). 200 DMA stands below at S$1,041.80 (805.77 oz). Lawsa Mercy! There's more downside coming! Scabrous US dollar Index fell back today after piercing the 81.50 resistance yesterday, but that's probably just a normal reaction. Dollar is rallying, and first technical target is 82.75. Of course, what are technicals when you are dealing with central bank manipulated markets? Only a sign. Euro rose 0.3% today to $1.3430, but that was only to save face for wallowing down for the past three weeks. Ain't even no reason to TALK about the euro till it climbs above $1.3500. Looks like MUCH lower prices are coming, and before Christmas. The yen this week fell out of that long narrow triangle it has been forming, Lo, these eight months, and it fell plumb hard. Readying itself for a visit at least to the last low at 96.05. Ten year treasury not yield fell back today, wiping out the breakout and all the gains of the last two days, and closing again below the downtrend line. I am not convinced. I think that yield wants to rise. Closed today at 2.505%and needs to rise above the 200 DMA at 2.681%. Many thanks for your prayers on behalf of my friend Daniel Freemon. Susan and I have spent much time in the hospital this week. They have no diagnosis yet, but it appears to be either viral encephalitis or a tick borne disease. Please continue to pray for him. Y'all enjoy your weekend! Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| <b>Gold Price</b> Advance Capped by the Dead Cat Dollar's Recovery <b>...</b> Posted: 01 Aug 2014 09:44 AM PDT By: Bob_Kirtley
2013 was a disastrous year for gold as it ended the year at around the $1200/oz. Gold started 2014 in good form rising to $1380/oz in March before falling back to $1240/oz and then it rallied again to $1340/oz. Since then it has declined to trade today at $1295/oz. So we can see that gold is up approximately 8% so far this year which is good progress, however, it is still 32% down its high of $1900/oz which it achieved in 2011. Silver prices and the gold producers, as represented by the Gold Bugs Index the HUI, also performed in a similar way to gold. So we are now faced with the question of can gold maintain this level of progress in the second half of 2014 and finish at say $1400/oz plus or will this rally fade and bring about a re-test of the low of $1180 as some analysts are predicting? There are many ingredients that go into this mix but one of the most important elements is the performance of the US dollar, so we will take a quick look at just how it has been performing recently. The US Dollar's progress There are a number of reasons for this rally; the first that springs to mind is the recent demise of the euro. The European Union is in all kinds of trouble on the employment front and so their political elite turn to the ECB for some help regarding the value of the euro. They believe that a lower euro would help to boost exports and thus more jobs will be created. The reality is that Germany would do well as the demand for a cheaper priced Mercedes would increase, but the rest of Europe would still be looking on in envy. However, the ECB did oblige by reducing their interest rate taking it into negative territory for the first time ever. This move makes it rather pointless to hold the euro as an investor would earn nothing and they are also saddled with the risk of a possible 'bail-in' which would see some of their funds being confiscated in order to support a delinquent bank. This flight from the euro weakens it and some of these funds will be parked in a dollar account thus driving up demand for the dollar. The second possibility is that the dollar is reacting to the political turmoil that has intensified recently. The unrest is usually expected to boost the price of gold, however, funds can moved at the click of a button these days so maybe the dollar is that safety vehicle, at least for now. Finally, there is the US monetary policy to consider, as of yesterday the tapering programme was in full swing with an expectation that it will wind up in the fall. No more QE is good for the dollar in that it stops the dilution process that was inherent in QE. It remains to be seen who is going to be buying treasury bonds when QE ends, but for now the dollar is spared. US Monetary policy in the form of tapering is proving to be supportive of the USD, however, we would also draw your attention to the RSI which is now in the overbought zone, standing at 78, so we may see the dollar take a breather shortly. The spectre of tapering and the talk of interest rate increases cast a dark shadow over the precious metals area making it difficult to see just where the impetus for higher prices will come from. That said it will soon be Labour Day which heralds the start of the fall season which is normally good for gold. Conclusion I am a gold and silver bull, but not a perma-bull, as taking such a position is too rigid of an approach to adopt as far as investing is concerned, regardless of the market sector. If you are convinced that the time is right for the precious metals to head higher then by all means acquire some physical gold and silver. The operative word is 'physical' that is having the metal in your own hands and not a piece of paper giving you ownership of it in a vault in some distant land. Our acquisitions were made early on in this bull market and for now at least we will not acquiring any more metal, neither will we be parting with it. Our focus is now totally concentrated on the mining stocks and a few well thought out options trades, enabling us to trade both long and short, as and when the risk/reward scenario is skewed in our favour. In terms of timing; the summer doldrums looked to have been by-passed, but the last few weeks has seen this sector start to rollover. It is currently heading south with room to fall further. The month of August could be the month that we hit a real bottom which would present us with some golden opportunities to acquire good quality mining stocks at bargain prices. We believe this is not the time to be fully invested in the precious metals sector and at the moment we are not prepared to adopt a cavalier approach to investment as we have been through a number of false dawns over the last few years, so we looking for more in the way of a sell-off before we can fully commit our funds. Bob Kirtley To stay updated on our market commentary, which gold stocks we are buying and why, please subscribe to The Gold Prices Newsletter, completely FREE of charge. Simply click here and enter your email address. Winners of the GoldDrivers Stock Picking Competition 200 DISCLAIMER : Gold Prices makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided on this site. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This website represents our views and nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. We accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this website. We may or may not hold a position in these securities at any given time and reserve the right to buy and sell as we think fit. © 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. |
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