Gold price | <b>Gold Price's</b> "Default" Model Broken | Gold News - BullionVault |
- <b>Gold Price's</b> "Default" Model Broken | Gold News - BullionVault
- <b>Gold price</b> lifted out of danger zone | MINING.com
- Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: The <b>Gold Price</b> Closed Above it's 200 Day <b>...</b>
| <b>Gold Price's</b> "Default" Model Broken | Gold News - BullionVault Posted: 11 Oct 2013 10:18 AM PDT Why? Because this is not the debt default gold prices were looking for... NO DENYING it, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault. The threat of US debt default has been a non-event for gold prices so far. In fact, the mere hint of a short-term fix knocked gold prices below $1300 on Thursday, with a further plunge as the week ended. For long-time investors, the irony looks so thick you could butter your toast with it. The US Dollar is the world's most important currency. The United States is also the world's largest debtor. So-called gold "bugs" who began buying gold in the early 2000s thought they saw what was coming. Then from 2007, Washington only added to its historic debt pile, backing the nation's entire finance sector with yet more taxpayer promises. The endgame looked clear. And here it is, with less than one week to go. We now have the very real risk of an outright default, a failure by the United States government to pay its debts or bills as they come due. US Treasury bonds underpin the world's financial system, setting interest rates and acting as collateral for pretty much the entire planet. The panic about to take hold should mean silver and gold prices are soaring. Yet here we sit, back below $1300 and $22 per ounce.
The gold price just isn't working as it should, in short, as US default draws near. "Honestly, it doesn't make sense," adds Dan Denbow – a guy who understands gold more than most, as manager of the $1bn USAA Precious Metals fund (USAGX). "The current situation is a bit perplexing." But step back for a second. The world doesn't fit your model. So the world must be wrong? Back in 2009, "the recent [gold] price surge looks suspiciously like a bubble," wrote Nouriel Roubini. Because in the absence of severe inflation, or a catastrophic economic collapse, the NYU Stern School professor couldn't imagine gold prices rising. Yet they were. So gold must be wrong. Because of course, Roubini could only be right. Now in late 2013, the opposite problem is confusing pundits and traders alike. Gold is falling when it "should" be soaring. Maybe gravity's failed, the earth is flat, or somebody's rigging the market? But this US "default" isn't for real. It's a sham, a fraud and scamola. Political posturing is all that is happening, and the financial markets know it. America faces default on a technicality, not on a refusal by creditors to finance any more of its spending. Even if no deal is done by Oct. 17th, equity and bond investors know the US can borrow and spend all it wants at the moment. Only the arbitrary and very moveable debt ceiling is stopping it. And the US of course remains the world's biggest economy, and the source of its hottest must-have investments, regardless of value. Take communications, for instance. The UK has Royal Mail, floated this week for the equivalent of $5.25 billion, and then jumped 38% on first trading today. The US in contrast has Twitter, priced at twice as much by its IPO. Never mind the business models (Royal Mail made $700m operating profit in full-year 2012. Twitter lost $68m in the first-half of 2013). One of these stocks is a sell. But the faller will most likely be different short term from long. Meantime, there's little surprise that gold and silver aren't jumping. Because the US default isn't happening, whether it does next Thursday or not. And together with America's rediscovered bounce, the sense of crisis peaking in 2011 continues to ebb. The real panic, the financial "end times" which Tea Party Republicans are winking at, is still pending. It isn't here today. And when it does show up, precious metals – most especially gold – will offer a stand-out antidote. Physically rare and indestructible, gold is the very opposite of debt investments. Owning it puts you a million miles from being a creditor. If this US default were for real, gold would say so. For now, this is not the debt default gold owners were looking for.  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| <b>Gold price</b> lifted out of danger zone | MINING.com Posted: 26 Aug 2014 03:44 PM PDT On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery on Tuesday attempted a comeback of sorts, recovering from a two month low. By the close of regular trade gold was changing hands for $1,285.20 an ounce, up over $6, after earlier hitting a day high of $1,291.90. The gains follow six weak sessions which saw the metal lose 2% in value. Tuesday's move lifted the metal above its 200-day moving average – a bullish technical sign – after bouncing off support at $1,272 and could now attempt a move back above $1,300 an ounce. The gains in the price of gold came amid fresh money flowing into US equities with the S&P 500 setting new records above the 2,000 point level on Tuesday. Minutes of the last US Federal Reserve meeting showing the US central bank opting for a more hawkish tone as the country's job picture continues to improve sparked last week's sell-off on the gold market. Bond yields are negatively correlated with the gold price as the metal is not income producing, but rising interest rates do not necessarily turn gold into a one-way bet. During the last Fed tightening cycle from June 2004 to June 2006 the price of gold actually increased by about 50%. And soaring equity markets and sky-high stock valuations may push investors back into gold. London-based ETF Securities, an institutional research firm, sees money flowing back into hard assets: "Gold and silver have had substantial corrections offering attractive relative value propositions and remain near the cost of production. Fundamental value and relative valuations normally prevail in the long term as many prudent investors have continued to diversify into the precious metals." | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: The <b>Gold Price</b> Closed Above it's 200 Day <b>...</b> Posted: 28 Aug 2014 04:16 PM PDT
Ponder the GOLD PRICE first. High today at $1,297.60 hit the downtrend line from October 2012 we've been fighting with since June. Closed above the 200 DMA ($1,284.94) and rose stoutly off a $1,283 low as the day began. The SILVER PRICE bounced like a kangaroo. Cut into but did not close over its 20 DMA (1971c). RSI bounced up sharply, MACD line almost turned up. I remind y'all once again, September on average is the strongest month of the year for silver and gold prices. We need milestone confirmations above still, but metals today made a heartening first step. Next week promises much progress Those hopeful signs I was squinting to see in silver and gold ripened today. More about that below. Stocks turned down today. Dow lost 42.44 (0.25%) to 17,079.57. They hang again a mere 90 points above the uptrend line from the March 2009 low. This, remember, was the line the Dow fell through at end-July. This, as the Roman haruspex might tell you, in a very bad liver is healthy-seeming sheep. S&P500 dropped 3.38 (0.17%), but dead out of its uptrend from early August. Broke clean down, thru the line. More interesting to those of us who trust not the Potemkin Economy peopled by central bankers, bankeresses, and other bogus luminaries, were the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver. Dow in Silver (bless its heart!) plunged 1.16% today to end at 871.01 oz (S$1,126.15 silver dollars). 'Tis a small sign, yet a sign still, that the DiS closed back within the upper channel line. This it had previously "thrown over" (risen above) a couple of weeks ago. 'Pears to have changed headings 180 degrees to "straight down." Dow in gold likewise turned down, but only 0.74% to 13.24 oz (G$273.69 gold dollars). Can't call it a reversal yet, but appears to have left a double top behind. No action much in rotten, scrofulous, corrupt, parasitic fiat currencies today. US dollar index shaved off one basis point, nothing, a chigger's whisker, to 82.50. Coming off an uncommonly overbought condition, the dollar is begging to turn earthward. Euro is as oversold as the dollar is overbought. Lost 0.8% today for a $1.3183 close. Watch out, next move might be up. Yen did rise today, 0.16% to 96.45 cents/Y100. Also moving up from an oversold state. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. |
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