27 August 2014 - Emas naik didukung peningkatan cadangan Rusia dan Kazakhstan |
- 27 August 2014 - Emas naik didukung peningkatan cadangan Rusia dan Kazakhstan
- 27 August 2014 - Gold Shines Most in September on Seasonal Buys: Chart of the Day
- 27 August 2014 - PRECIOUS-Gold drifts higher; firm dollar and equities limit upside
- 27 August 2014 - 美国巨量国债拖后腿 美联储政策趋紧难有空间
- 26 August 2014 - India's Appetite for Gold Improves
- 26 August 2014 - 'Cold war' over Crimean gold
- 26 August 2014 - Is Asian gold demand really slipping so much?
- 26 August 2014 - 印度黄金溢价上升，“排灯节”前需求增加
| 27 August 2014 - Emas naik didukung peningkatan cadangan Rusia dan Kazakhstan Posted: 27 Aug 2014 03:04 AM PDT From:http://www.antaranews.com/berita/450458/emas-naik-didukung-peningkatan-cadangan-rusia-dan-kazakhstan Chicago (ANTARA News) - Emas berjangka di divisi COMEX New York Mercantile Exchange melambung pada Selasa (Rabu pagi WIB), karena bank sentral Rusia dan Kazakhstan terus meningkatkan cadangan emas resmi mereka pada Juli. Kontrak emas yang paling aktif untuk pengiriman Desember naik 6,3 dolar AS, atau 0,49 persen, menjadi menetap di 1.285,2 dolar AS per ounce. Emas sempat naik di atas 1.290 dolar AS setelah data dari Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) menunjukkan negara-negara berkembang tetap berkomitmen untuk meningkatkan cadangan logam mulia mereka. Rusia, salah satu pemegang emas terbesar di dunia, meningkatkan cadangan resminya hampir 340.000 troy ounce menjadi 35,5 juta ounce pada Juli, sementara bank sentral Kazakhstan menaikkan cadangan resminya sebanyak 45.000 ounce menjadi 5,1 juta ounce pada bulan yang sama, sesuai dengan data terbaru dari Dana Moneter Internasional. Namun demikian, harga emas hanya memberikan sedikit keuntungan karena saham-saham AS terus menguat dengan indeks S&P 500 mencapai wilayah yang belum dipetakan, serta serangkaian data ekonomi AS secara umum positif. Perak untuk pengiriman September naik 2,8 sen, atau 0,14 persen, menjadi ditutup pada 19,386 dolar AS per ounce. Platinum untuk pengiriman Oktober naik 1,2 dolar AS, atau 0,08 persen, menjadi ditutup pada 1.419,6 dolar AS per ounce. Demikian laporan Xinhua. Source:http://www.antaranews.com/berita/450458/emas-naik-didukung-peningkatan-cadangan-rusia-dan-kazakhstan |
| 27 August 2014 - Gold Shines Most in September on Seasonal Buys: Chart of the Day Posted: 27 Aug 2014 02:59 AM PDT By Nicholas Larkin Gold investors hurting from prices within 1 percent of a two-month low can find solace from history showing the metal tends to perform best in September. The CHART OF THE DAY shows bullion averaged gains of 3 percent each September over the past 20 years, beating next-best month November, when prices rose an average 1.8 percent. Gold reached $1,273.14 an ounce on Aug. 21, the lowest since June 18. Buying typically increases with India's festival period, which runs from late August to October and is followed by the wedding season, times when bullion is bought for part of the bridal trousseau or in jewelry form as gifts from relatives. Chinese purchases may also increase toward year-end, before the country's Lunar New Year celebration in February. The nation replaced India as the largest user in 2013. "Indian jewelers and dealers will be stocking up in the coming weeks, so it should affect prices," said Mark O'Byrne, a director at brokerage GoldCore Ltd. in Dublin. "A lot of traders are aware of this trend towards seasonal strength, so that may contribute to higher prices. They tend to buy and that creates momentum." The metal traded at $1,283.68 in London yesterday for a 6.8 percent gain this year, rebounding from a 28 percent drop in 2013, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. That decline, the most in more than three decades, spurred more jewelry to coin purchases in Asia, even as India's government choked off imports to curb a current-account deficit. Still, prices slipped 4.7 percent last September, bucking the long-term trend. Gold's performance next month will probably lag behind the historical average because demand from China is expected to be subdued until prices drop toward $1,200, UBS AG wrote in an Aug. 20 report. |
| 27 August 2014 - PRECIOUS-Gold drifts higher; firm dollar and equities limit upside Posted: 27 Aug 2014 02:56 AM PDT From:http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/08/27/markets-precious-idINL3N0QX13A20140827 By Lewa Pardomuan SINGAPORE, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Gold edged higher on Wednesday, its third day of gains in four, but a lack of buying support from Asia, a strong U.S. dollar and firmer equities due to hopes of more stimulus from the European Central Bank are expected to check any big upside for the metal. Bullion has struggled in August to decisively break above the psychological level of $1,300 an ounce as speculation grew about an earlier than expected increase in U.S. interest rates. On Wednesday, gold added 0.24 percent to $1,283.70 an ounce by 0616 GMT, having jumped about 1 percent on Tuesday on chart-based buying before paring gains. Prices hit a two-month low of $1,273.06 on Aug. 21 but are still up more than 6 percent this year. "The market is still very cautious. The physical side is not as good as in the previous month and even last year," said Brian Lan, managing director of retailer GoldSilver Central Pte Ltd in Singapore. "What we are seeing is a lot of speculative trading by the bigger players and hedge funds. Gold is still within the trading band," said Lan, adding that short-term technical support for the metal was at $1,275 while resistance was still $1,300. U.S. gold was flat at $1,284.50 an ounce. The dollar hit a 13-month peak against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday, with the euro still struggling amid expectations of further policy easing from the European Central Bank. A firm U.S. dollar makes dollar-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies, and some speculators also turned to equities following the release of U.S. data on durable goods and consumer confidence. Speculation is growing that the European Central Bank is preparing a programme of large-scale asset purchases to weaken the euro and try to jump-start growth in the struggling euro zone. "We suspect that we (will) likely see pressure resume on gold going into the balance of the week, as Tuesday's move did not look all that convincing to us," said INTL FC Stone in a report. Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund and a gauge of investor demand, fell 0.4 percent to 797.09 tonnes on Monday from 800.08 tonnes on Friday. Precious metals prices 0616 GMT Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pct chg Volume Spot Gold 1283.70 3.06 +0.24 6.54 Spot Silver 19.39 0.05 +0.26 -0.10 Spot Platinum 1419.20 8.60 +0.61 3.78 Spot Palladium 884.45 3.25 +0.37 24.05 COMEX GOLD DEC4 1284.50 -0.70 -0.05 6.88 9183 COMEX SILVER SEP4 19.40 0.01 +0.00 0.15 3594 Euro/Dollar 1.3173 Dollar/Yen 103.94 Source:http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/08/27/markets-precious-idINL3N0QX13A20140827 |
| 27 August 2014 - 美国巨量国债拖后腿 美联储政策趋紧难有空间 Posted: 27 Aug 2014 02:43 AM PDT From:http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2014/08/27161917896980.shtml 上周五（8月22日）年会上耶伦没有否定美联储可能会早于预期加息，外界也纷纷猜测美联储什么时候收紧货币。但是一份之前并未受到关注的报告指出，加息会给美国政府带来巨大的财政压力，这可能会让美联储放缓加息的脚步。如果放缓加息，中长期将利好黄金。 加息=增加财政支出 美联储很难大刀阔斧 8月22日杰克逊霍尔年会上，耶伦提到，美联储正在关注通胀数据，如果有必要，美联储就会加息。她还表示，"如果劳动力市场恢复进程加快，或者通胀提升高于预期，可能会导致我们的双重目标提前达成的情况下，美联储会提前加息，并且其后进一步升息也会加速。" 然而，很少有人知道，美国国会预算办公室（CBO）反而下调了他们对长期利率的预测。CBO指出，如果利率大幅提高，联邦利息支出也会大幅提高，加息带来的国债利息支出会加重美国财政负担。 今年2月，CBO曾表示如果年利率增长1%，将会增加300亿美元赤字，如果2015-2024年间年利率再增加1%，美国政府预算赤字将会在7.904万亿美元基础上再增加1.512万亿美元。 之前，CBO对10年期国债基准利率的预测是2014年3.1%，而2017年将提高到4.8%。但实际上，8月26日市场数据显示国债收益率正处在2.38%，对此CBO将在8月27日公布新的预测，其中其中也包括10年期国债基准利率预测。 如果CBO的预测成为现实，美联储加息速度与幅度都受到削减，那么美国政府受到国债拖累的可能就会降低。 国会共和党担忧赤字问题 长久以来，国会共和党一直在担心预算赤字问题。美国政府预算赤字在2009年到达名义上的最高点，而投资者持有的美国国债，结合美国经济恢复程度计算，在2007-2012年间翻了一倍。 据参议院共和党预算委员会官员分析，7月15日公布的CBO长期报告中显示，CBO再次警告"规模庞大且不断增长的国债扩大了美国遭受财政危机的可能。国债投资者期待美联储加息，而随加息上涨的国债利率会加速联邦财政恶化。" 可见，美国政府目前近17万亿美元的国债给升息带来了潜在的压力，这也让一些分析人士认为美联储立场会很大程度上保持宽松，因为加息会导致美国政府无力支付国债利息。如果美联储加息时间慢于市场目前普遍预期的明年第2季度前后，将会给黄金等以美元计价的商品带来利好。 |
| 26 August 2014 - India's Appetite for Gold Improves Posted: 26 Aug 2014 03:16 AM PDT From: http://online.wsj.com/articles/indias-appetite-for-gold-improves-1408964049 By Biman Mukherji Buyers in the World's Second-Largest Gold Consumer Step Up Purchases Ahead of Religious Festivals The premium on gold that Indian consumers pay has climbed to $10 to $13 a troy ounce, from zero in July. Above, a jewelry shop in India. Associated Press As gold prices linger near a two-month low, demand in Asia has started edging higher with buyers in India increasing purchases ahead of a Hindu religious festival this week. The mark up to global gold prices, known as a premium, that Indian consumers pay has climbed to $10 to $13 a troy ounce from zero in July, a sign that appetite for gold is picking up in the world's second-largest consumer of the precious metal. The vast majority of India's gold supply comes from abroad. As a result, Indian gold buyers typically pay a premium to global prices that reflects the tightness of locally available supply as well as the government-imposed import duty. Still, demand remains tepid in China, the world's biggest buyer, and sales in the rest of the world are sluggish despite a number of geopolitical risks that normally increase demand for the safe-haven metal. India and China together account for about 70% of the world's gold market and sales usually peak near the end of the year because of buying ahead of Hindu festivals including Diwali, and Lunar New Year in China. "Demand is picking up every day. Festival season sales have started," said Rahul Gupta, managing director of P.P. Jewellers, a large Indian jewelry chain. Demand has risen as buyers have dived in after a heavy fall in prices over the past week, Mr. Gupta said. The rupee has also strengthened against the dollar, pushing domestic gold prices below 28,000 rupees ($463) per 10 grams. India will celebrate the birthday of the elephant-headed god of wisdom Ganesha on Friday, a major festive occasion in the western region. Gold sales in India usually rise during religious festivals as it is considered auspicious to buy gold ornaments. During Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights that is celebrated on Oct. 23, people also typically invest in gold coins and bars. It has been an unusual roller-coaster ride for gold premiums in India because of uncertainty over policies, elections and monsoon rains. Gold premiums were at $100 in February, but fell to $60 in May after the government allowed private trading companies to import bullion and plunged to zero in July, when demand for gold is usually weak because of a lack of festivals. Prithviraj Kothari, vice president of Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association, said gold imports in August will likely total 40 metric tons but are expected to rebound to June's level of around 70 tons in September. "Everybody was fearing that a bad monsoon will hit the festival demand. Fortunately, the monsoon has picked up and it is not so bad," he said. The majority of India's gold demand comes from rural areas and therefore, the monsoon plays a big part in purchases. In China, demand is expected to pick up around the end of the year, coinciding with wedding season demand and extending to Lunar New Year festivities in late-February. Shanghai gold has been trading at a premium of $3-$7 an ounce over London prices in the past month, indicating moderate to weak demand. "People are still holding a lot of gold inventory [in China]," said Wallace Ng, a senior precious metals trader based in Beijing. "I don't see [domestic] demand improving in the short term. We are waiting for the old inventory to diminish." Demand for gold in China will likely surge ahead of Lunar New Year, Mr. Ng said. Source: http://online.wsj.com/articles/indias-appetite-for-gold-improves-1408964049 |
| 26 August 2014 - 'Cold war' over Crimean gold Posted: 26 Aug 2014 03:08 AM PDT by Benjamin Durr An Amsterdam museum is caught in the middle of a proxy fight between Russia, Ukraine and the West. Amsterdam, The Netherlands - A golden helmet with the silhouettes of soldiers engraved. Ancient jewels, coins and caskets that are hundreds of years old sit at the University of Amsterdam's archaeological Allard Pierson Museum. They had been discovered in Crimea and show the richness of the peninsula in the Black Sea. The exhibition opened in February, when Crimea belonged to Ukraine. In the meantime, however, Russia has sent troops to the peninsula, a referendum was held, and Crimea has seceded from Ukraine and joined Russia. As both Moscow and Kiev claim the ownership of the items, the Amsterdam museum finds itself caught in a diplomatic dispute. The "cold conflict" over Crimean gold is in of itself a proxy fight amid the ongoing crisis between Russia and the West. In a few days the exhibition ends, but the Dutch curators have said they are unsure where to return the gold. They cannot simply return it to Crimea, explained Yasha Lange, head of communications at the University of Amsterdam. The items are on loan from five museums, four of them located in Crimea. Ukraine considers the items state property. "According to Ukraine, giving them to Crimea would mean they suddenly end up in Russian hands," Lange told Al Jazeera. Who does the gold belong to? Museums in Crimea, on the contrary, want them back. The Tavrida Central Museum in the city of Simferopol has given 132 artifacts to Amsterdam with an insured value of 163,925 euros ($217,000). "They were discovered on Crimean territory," Andrey Malgin, the museum's director, said. "Besides, they are part of the cultural heritage of the Crimean people and have nothing to do with the Ukrainian territory." Therefore, they must be returned to their direct owner and not to the state, Malgin argued. He explained that, as usual with loan collections, his museum has concluded a contract with its counterpart in Holland "with the condition that the artifacts must be returned to the museum". However, the items are determined as property of both the museum and the state, he said. "We proceed from the fact that museum property is primary and more fundamental than the property of the state," Malgin told Al Jazeera. Those contracts with the museums are the basis to determine where the gold has to be returned, said Inge van der Vlies, a professor of constitutional law and art at the University of Amsterdam. The Netherlands has not recognised Crimea's secession. Therefore, it still has to fulfill its obligations vis-a-vis Ukraine. Museums on both sides have hired lawyers to solve the problem, and the Dutch ministry of foreign affairs is involved. Meanwhile, Russia, too, has declared its support for Crimea and hired an international law firm. "I am very hopeful that our counterparts in the Netherlands will approach the matter from the viewpoint not of petty politics but that of the law," said Russian culture minister Vladimir Medinsky, according to media reports in July. He accused Kiev of shifting the issue into the political domain. The ancient gold, coins and caskets from the Black Sea have become just the most recent delicate matter in what has become a "cold conflict" between Russia, Ukraine and the West. Especially for the Netherlands the dispute over the cultural heritage complicates relations with Russia. Last year Russia jailed four Dutch citizens under a controversial anti-homosexuality bill accusing them of spreading "gay propaganda". Just a few months later the Dutch police arrested a high-ranking Russian diplomat in The Hague on suspicion of child abuse. A few days later, a Dutch diplomat was beaten up in Moscow. Deteriorating Russian-Dutch relations More importantly, the dispute over the Greenpeace ship Arctic Sunrise has worsened the Russian-Dutch relationship. One year ago, Russian authorities arrested activists and crew members of the ship flying under the Dutch flag. During a protest at an oil platform they were caught and later charged with piracy. Thirty people were detained for more than 100 days. Just a few weeks ago the ship arrived in the harbour in Amsterdam. The recent downing of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 has again increased tensions with Moscow. The majority of the victims, 195 people, were Dutch. In the eyes of many Dutch, Russia is to blame for the disaster. "There is a strong anti-Russian sentiment in Holland," said Nicolaas Kraft van Ermel, a researcher at the Netherlands-Russia Center at the University of Groningen, speaking of the consequences of MH17 a few weeks ago. For example, in a radio interview, a Dutch city mayor called for the deportation of Maria Putin, the Russian president's daughter, who reportedly lived in an apartment in The Hague. The mayor later apologised for his comment, but "this shows the feelings vis-a-vis Russia quite good", Kraft van Ermel said. There seems to be no link between the incidents. However, they all point to the fact that relations with Russia are more complicated, tense and overloaded with emotions and negative perceptions than ties with other countries.
The question where to return the artifacts was raised earlier this year already. The exhibition was initially scheduled to close in May. Back then the Amsterdam museum just said it extended the time of the exhibition. The final closing date has been set for August 31. |
| 26 August 2014 - Is Asian gold demand really slipping so much? Posted: 26 Aug 2014 03:13 AM PDT From: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-analysis?oid=251195&sn=Detail by Lawrence Williams Indian and Chinese gold demand may not be quite as lacklustre as the mainstream media would have you believe, while geopolitical events continue to churn. LONDON (Mineweb) - By all accounts in the mainstream media, gold demand in Asia, and in particular in China and India, has been slipping dramatically this year which some see as the principal reason behind current price weakness. But all may not be as the reports suggest. Is Chinese demand, as suggested by the enormous slippage in gold imports though Hong Kong really as bad as the figures appear to show? Reuters reports Hong Kong net gold exports to mainland China in July as falling to the lowest level since June 2011 at 22 tonnes (Bloomberg reports the figure as 21 tonnes). Compare this with the heady days last year when such gold imports exceeded 100 tonnes monthly for 6 months in a row from May to October. If this is an accurate indication of Chinese gold demand weakness then this is indeed something of a blow for gold bulls. But, China has moved the goalposts. While Hong Kong was very much the primary routing for gold entering the Chinese mainland in the past, indications are that this may no longer be the case as China has now designated a number of other points as import points for gold – notably Shanghai and Beijing. But as it does not publish statistics for these, overall import figures are much more opaque. Koos Jansen, who monitors detailed gold flows through the Shanghai Gold Exchange, reckoned to be the true indicator of Chinese wholesale gold consumption, and which does publish weekly figures, has also seen a fall – but not nearly to the same extent as the Hong Kong data would suggest. Indeed writing on www.bullionstar.com, he sees total Chinese demand to August 1st as 1,094 tonnes and imports to this date are estimated at 688 tonnes. Extrapolating for the full year this could suggest total annual imports of 1,170 tonnes, although given there was an import surge in January and February the figures might not be directly comparable – but even so it does mean Chinese gold imports may well amount to perhaps around 1,000 tonnes for the whole of 2014. (Possibly higher given that demand tends to pick up later in the year as the Chinese New Year approaches). While this is indeed a lower figure than last year's record it is not down to anything like the same degree that the Hong Kong figures alone might indicate. And take Shanghai gold premiums. According to Reuters these are currently running at around $3-$7 over the London price, after slipping back to zero (and briefly to negative) a couple of months ago. This does at least point to weak to moderate demand in the Chinese market which is again counter to what the Hong Kong data alone might suggest. And how about that other massive Asian market - India? Gold has had a very topsy-turvy ride this year, largely centred around the Indian elections and hopes, subsequently dashed, that the big gold import premiums imposed to assist the country's balance of payment figures with the value of gold imports providing such a significant part of the country's trade deficit, would be dropped or reduced. Again Reuters reports that demand is picking up well and with Festival and wedding seasons approaching, and the Monsoon proving a little better than originally anticipated helping boost rural demand, price premiums in India have risen to around the $10-$13 level compared with zero a month ago. The latest figures indicate that India could still well import around 700 tonnes of gold this year, but this could be swelled by unrecorded amounts smuggled into the nation to avoid the government duties, which could be as much as 200 tonnes or more according to some estimates. So overall gold movements into the world's two biggest consumers may well be slipping this year after last year's big figures, but it does not appear to be slipping nearly as much as some media reports would have us believe. Taking into account a substantial drop in disposals from the big gold ETFs, relatively flat mine supply and a fall in scrap sales due to the lower prices this year's supply/demand balance could well move in gold's favour, although this will not necessarily result in significantly higher prices given the markets are still largely controlled by COMEX paper gold futures data. If the gold price is to rise significantly by the end of the year, then it will be geopolitical factors that most likely will prove the key. But, the investment public is suffering from news fatigue on this front and it would probably take something really dramatic – like a fullscale Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine, to move the markets substantially here. Given that yesterday's reports that a Russian tank column had crossed the border into Ukraine didn't have much of an impact on the gold price, although it has moved up this morning (there is so much disinformation on the Russia Ukraine crisis being disseminated that this may be yet another false accusation) it would definitely take some very substantial news to drive prices upwards by more than a few dollars. But, we are entering a dangerous time of year on the geopolitical front and if, indeed, Chinese and Indian demand does start to pick up significantly in the second half of the year we could see something of a run in the gold price. However there are just too many unknowns out there at the moment to be able to make any serious predictions one way or the other. Source: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-analysis?oid=251195&sn=Detail |
| 26 August 2014 - 印度黄金溢价上升，“排灯节”前需求增加 Posted: 26 Aug 2014 03:05 AM PDT From: http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/20140826/110220122797.shtml 汇金网8月26日讯——周二(8月26日)亚市盘中，随着金价在两个月低位附近徘徊，亚洲黄金(1288.10, 9.20, 0.72%)需求开始小幅升高。在本周印度传统节日"排灯节"(Diwali)到来前，印度黄金销量上升。 印度的黄金溢价已从7月份的零升至每盎司10-13美元，表明这一全球第二大黄金消费国的需求正在回升。印度的黄金供应大多来自海外，因而该国的黄金买家常要在全球金价水平之上再额外支付一定的溢价，此事反映出当地黄金供应紧张以及政府进口税的影响。 不过全球最大黄金消费国中国的黄金需求持续低迷，且尽管一系列地缘政治风险存在，世界其他地区的黄金销售表现疲软。印度和中国加起来占全球黄金销量的约70%，且黄金销量在接近年末之际通常会升至高位，因两国消费者会在排灯节等印度节日以及中国农历新年到来前购买黄金。 印度大型珠宝连锁商P.P. Jewellers的董事总经理古普塔(Rahul Gupta)表示，当前黄金需求正日渐回升，假日销售季已经开始。在过去一周金价遭遇重挫后，黄金需求开始回升，买家开始大举购进。卢比兑美元走强也对印度国内金价构成拖累，使其跌破每10克28，000卢比（约合463美元）。 周五印度将迎来象头神节，这是印度的一个重大节日。象头神迦尼萨是印度教中的智慧之神。每逢宗教节日，印度的黄金销量通常都会上升，因为印度人认为购买金饰会带来吉祥。每年10月23日的排灯节，印度人通常也会投资金币和金条。 受围绕政策、选举和季风雨的不确定性影响，印度市场上的黄金溢价不同寻常地出现了过山车般的走势。今年2月份黄金溢价报100美元，但5月份跌至60美元， 因印度政府宣布允许私营贸易公司进口黄金。7月份时黄金溢价收窄至零水平，由于缺乏节日，7月份通常是黄金需求的淡季。 印度黄金和珠宝协会(Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association)副会长Prithviraj Kothari称，8月份黄金进口量可能为40吨，但预计9月份进口量将回升至6月时的水平，也就是70吨左右。之前所有人都担心恶劣的季风季节将打击节日期间的黄金需求，幸运的是，季风季节已经到来，但它并不那么糟糕。在印度，绝大多数黄金需求来自农村，因此季风对黄金采购情况影响很大。 Source: http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/20140826/110220122797.shtml |
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