12 August 2014 - Minggu ini, Harga Emas Bakal Makin Kinclong

12 August 2014 - Minggu ini, Harga Emas Bakal Makin Kinclong
12 August 2014 - 3 Reasons to Bet Big on Gold With These 3 Senior Gold Miners
12 August 2014 - India major recipient of Swiss gold exports
12 August 2014 - 俄再集大軍虎視烏克蘭前英銀行長力挺黃金

Posted: 12 Aug 2014 03:27 AM PDT

From:http://bisnis.liputan6.com/read/2089152/minggu-ini-harga-emas-bakal-makin-kinclong

Liputan6.com, New York - Kekhawatiran geopolitik yang kian meruncing membuat sebagian besar partisipan survei mingguan bertajuk Kitco Gold News Survey memprediksi harga emas naik pekan ini. Itu lantaran konflik Rusia-Ukraina, Palestina-Israel semakin memanas.

Mengutip laman Forbes, Senin (11/8/2014), sebanyak 18 dari 27 partisipan menilai harga emas akan naik pekan ini. Sebaliknya, enam partisipan memprediksi harga emas akan turun dan tiga lainnya memperkirakan harga emas bergerak stagnan.

Pekan lalu, para partisipan menilai harga emas akan turun. Faktanya, harga emas justru naik US$ 17 per ounce.

Dengan memanasnya ketegangan Rusia-Ukraina pekan lalu serta gencatan senjata antara pasukan Hamas dan Israel, para partisipan yakin itu akan menjadi faktor penguat harga emas.

Sejumlah grafik harga emas juga menunjukkan tanda-tanda penguatan nilai jual emas.Pakar strategi pasar CMC Markets, Collin Cieszynski mengatakan, dengan harga emas yang kembali ke level US$ 1.300 per ounce, grafik harga emas semakin positif.

"Emas punya peluang untuk terus menguat jika berhasil melewati US$ 1.322 per ounce," tuturnya.

Dari segi fundamental, perekonomian Eropa masih lemah dan sejumlah sanksi tidak dapat membantunya.

Artinya, tekanan yang terus berkembang memicu Bank Sentral Eropa untuk melakukan sejumlah perubahan kebijakan. Kondisi tersebut dapat menjadi pendorong kenaikan harga emas.

"Ketegangan politik di sejumlah wilayah seperti Ukraina, Irak, Afrika Barat, Gaza, Libya dan lainnya dapat membuat perdagangan emas semakin aktif," jelasnya.

Presiden dan pakar strategi INO dan Market Clu, Adam Hewison, juga yakin harga emas naik, tapi dengan alasan lain.

"Kami sangat yakin harga emas dapat menguat selama enam tahun ke depan. Kami rasa harganya dapat menguat ke level US$ 1.380 hingga US$ 1.400. Aksi pembobolan akun presiden Rusia dapat membuat dunia online ketakutan dan melambungkan harga emas," ujarnya.

Sementara analis lainnya merasa ketakutan antara para pedagang sudah berakhir.

Sekadar informasi, para partisipan terdiri dari analis bank investasi, pedagang emas, analis grafik pergerakan harga emas dan pialang. (Sis/Gdn)

Source:http://bisnis.liputan6.com/read/2089152/minggu-ini-harga-emas-bakal-makin-kinclong

12 August 2014 - 3 Reasons to Bet Big on Gold With These 3 Senior Gold Miners

Posted: 12 Aug 2014 03:24 AM PDT

From:http://www.fool.ca/2014/08/11/3-reasons-to-bet-big-on-gold-with-these-3-senior-gold-miners/

By Matt Smith

Ongoing economic and geopolitical turmoil in Europe and the Middle East is generating considerable fear among investors, which is stoking increased volatility across global stock markets. This turmoil has also brought the spotlight firmly back onto those investments perceived to be safe havens, including gold.

Let's take a closer look at why a portion of your portfolio should be invested in gold, as well as the three senior gold miners that offer the most potential to cash in on the impending gold rally, which Wall Street is now so fond of betting on.

1. Gold is a hedge against inflation

One of the key reasons to invest in gold is that it acts a hedge against inflation. This means that unlike fiat currencies, gold retains its purchasing power over time.

At this time, the purchasing power of fiat currencies continues to be eroded by the Fed as part of its quantitative easing policy, continuing to print money in order to generate economic growth. However, this money is flooding into the global economy, causing asset prices to rise and creating asset bubbles.

2. Gold is a safe haven investment

In times of uncertainty, gold is perceived by investors to be a safe haven investment, with it typically not losing its value in times of economic volatility and market turbulence.

There is already considerable economic and geopolitical turbulence, with a range of conflicts continuing to escalate in the Middle East, the growing conflict in the Ukraine, and growing fears of the need to bail out Portugal's banking system.

3. Gold supplies are dwindling yet demand is growing

According to the World Gold Council, gold demand has continued to grow over the three consecutive quarters from the second quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014. For the first quarter of 2014, demand for gold spiked a healthy 13% compared to the previous quarter, but remained flat against the first quarter of 2013. For the same period, gold supplies continue to dwindle, falling 5% quarter over quarter and remaining flat year over year.

This supply shortage, coupled with rising demand, will continue to drive gold prices higher. This is even more so when taken in conjunction with growing market volatility because of geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East, which is fueling further investor uncertainty.

How can investors cash in on higher gold prices?

All of these factors support the theory a rally in gold is imminent and that higher gold prices will be the way of the future. The key question for investors is how to cash in on firmer gold prices.

Physical ownership of gold or an ETF that tracks the price of gold, like SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEMKT: GLD), are two options to gain exposure to gold. The most attractive option, though, is to invest in the beaten-down gold mining industry. This is because these companies are essentially a leveraged play against the price of gold, meaning even a small spike in the gold price will translate into a significant gain in their share prices.

Three of the best miners for investors at this time are the industry's largest senior miners, Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX: ABX)(NYSE: ABX), Goldcorp Inc. (TSX: G)(NYSE:GG), and Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE: NEM).

Each company possesses specific characteristics that leave it well-positioned to unlock value for shareholders. Barrick and Newmont appear attractively priced, with enterprise values of seven times and five times EBITDA respectively.

Although Goldcorp appears expensive with an EV of 18 times EBITDA, the company has one of the lowest degrees of leverage in the industry and has built a strong balance sheet.

All three also have solid, geographically-diverse mining assets in production and under development, leaving them well-positioned to ramp up gold production as the gold price continues to firm.

Both Barrick and Goldcorp have some of the lowest cost structures in the industry, with second quarter of 2014 all-in sustaining costs of $865 and $852 per ounce respectively. Newmont's all-in sustaining costs for the same period were $1,063 per ounce, which is higher than many of its industry peers. However, the company's cost control program is gaining traction, with these costs falling a very healthy 17% year over year.

Newmont has also sold the Jundee operation in Australia for $94 million and completed divestments of $800 million over the last year, with these funds earmarked to reduce debt, strengthening its balance sheet. It has also elected to proceed with the development of the Merian project in Suriname, which on completion will boost both gold reserves and production.

Finally, all three miners continue to reward investors with regular dividend payments. While their dividend yields are not exactly attention-grabbing, with Barrick's being 1% and Goldcorp's and Newmont's being 2%, they will continue to reward patient investors as they wait for their share prices to appreciate.

Source:http://www.fool.ca/2014/08/11/3-reasons-to-bet-big-on-gold-with-these-3-senior-gold-miners/

12 August 2014 - India major recipient of Swiss gold exports

Posted: 12 Aug 2014 03:17 AM PDT

From:http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=249827&sn=Detail

MUMBAI (MINEWEB) -

Indian imports of gold from Switzerland have raised eyebrows in government circles. Data released recently by the Swiss Government showed a spike in bullion exports to India in June. Over 40% of the gold leaving Switzerland is reportedly landing in India.

Data showed that India accounted for around 42% of total June exports. Compared to the 33% of bullion exports to India in May, this has set the alarm bells ringing loud and clear.

Though India was recently replaced by China as the world's largest consumer of the precious metal, it is still a major consumer of bullion. In June, the value of Swiss derived gold and silver coins was worth about $4.3 billion.

What could be the reason for such colossal shipments of gold leaving Switzerland for India? While India's Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has asserted in television interviews that there was no evidence yet to indicate that unaccounted money was entering through gold imports, as was being discussed in government circles, Indian investigative agencies like the Intelligence Bureau and even the customs authorities are said to be tracking the shipments.

Even as a debate on alleged black money stashed by Indians in Swiss bank accounts continues in India's Parliament, data shows that India now accounts for the greatest amount of gold and silver leaving Switzerland shores, the largest for any single country.

Data showed that total export of gold, silver and coins in the month of June 2014 stood at 3.9 billion Swiss francs (SFR), of which India alone accounted for SFR1.63 billion.

This has taken the overall Swiss exports so far in 2014 to SFR32.1 billion . Of this and to date, shipments to India have reached nearly SFR7.3 billion.

Immediately after taking over as minister, India's Finance Minister Jaitley had written to the Swiss authorities seeking details of the unaccounted money stashed in Swiss banks.

Some analysts have termed the move as a bid to uncover the possibility of Indian black money stashed in Swiss banks. Reports have indicated that much of this money is being re-routed back to the country in the form of gold, especially because of the tough stand of the newly installed Indian Government.

The research body, Centre for Global Development, too, has alluded to the same in a study. The report said India's financial savings has been falling relative to the GDP, even as gold imports were steadily rising. This, it felt, was a sign that the gold economy was based significantly on unaccounted resources.

Incidentally, India's share of gold imports has doubled in the last 14 years. Despite a 400% rise in the rupee and the gold price in the last ten years or so, gold demand from Indian consumers remains robust.

The National Democratic Alliance government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, after being sworn in in May, had made it clear that on top of its agenda was the issue of black money stashed abroad. It has even constituted a special task force to investigate the entire issue.

On its part, Switzerland has committed that it would cooperate in India's fight against black money and has also invited an Indian delegation to visit Berne for discussions in this regard.

However, a new strategy of `layering' through gold and diamond trade has come to light at Swiss banks, to thwart any attempt for identification of real beneficiary owners of funds entrusted with them. Layering is a key stage in money laundering and involves moving illicit funds around the financial system through a complex series of deals to complicate the paper trail.

Data showed that while the United Kingdom and Hong Kong were two big export markets for Switzerland's gold, accounting for 139.4 tonnes and 84.6 tonnes, respectively, the gold demand from India has leaped to new highs.

Incidentally, gold exports to India in January 2014 stood at less than one billion Swiss francs, but has been consistently rising since then.

In contrast, Switzerland's overall bullion exports had risen in February to over SFR8 billion, from about SFR7 billion, but fell for three consecutive months thereafter to SFR3.7 billion in May.

In June, Turkey came a distant second after India with less than SFR500 million of Swiss bullion exports. Other major destinations were UAE, Singapore and Hong Kong, as also major economies like US, UK, China, France and Germany.

Could it be black money (illicit funds) being routed to the country? Though the Swiss say it is too early to see any nefarious pattern in the high export, Anne Cesard, deputy head of communications at the Switzerland State Secretariat for International Financial Matters, was quoted in a newswire report as saying that both these issues should not be linked at this point of time.

India's black money (illicit funds) is estimated to be about 8% of its GDP (or nearly $1.9 trillion in 2013, and exists mainly due to corruption and the existence of large scale cash transactions.

According to a report by the Washington based non-profit research and advocacy organisation Global Financial Integrity, between 2002 and 2011, nearly $344 billion of illicit money moved from India to various tax havens. Another estimate by the Associated Chamber of Commerce and Industry of India says nearly $2 trillion of black money from India is stashed abroad.

Source:http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=249827&sn=Detail

12 August 2014 - 俄再集大軍虎視烏克蘭前英銀行長力挺黃金

Posted: 12 Aug 2014 03:13 AM PDT

From:http://gold.hexun.com.tw/2014-08-12/167439605.html

國際現貨黃金周一(8月11日)紐約時段盤中收復此前跌幅，並在1310美元下方徘徊，因日內烏克蘭方面稱俄羅斯再度在俄烏邊境集結約4.5萬兵力，而當前烏政府軍與親俄武裝份子的戰鬥還在持續，表明地緣政治風險仍在為金價提供支撐。不過，受日內美元以及歐美股市走高的影響，金價漲幅受限。

相比之下，周一現貨白銀反彈近1%，並在紐約時段盤中刷新20.09美元/盎司的日高。

主要市場方面，周一美元指數上漲近0.10%；歐洲股市結束過去兩周跌勢，並強勢反彈；美國三大股指開高後繼續走強；美國30年期國債收益率轉跌為漲。

截至北京時間03:15，現貨黃金下跌1美元，跌幅0.09%，報1308.20美元/盎司。

中東及烏克蘭局勢仍在發酵然分析師普遍看空金價

烏克蘭頓涅茨克市郊周日(8月10日)遭炮擊，烏克蘭政府軍加緊圍困反叛勢力重要據點，並且呼籲親俄分裂分子投降。烏克蘭叛軍領導人周六曾表示願意進行停火談判，但隨著政府軍繼續展開進攻，停火談判的可能性因而消失。

烏克蘭軍方發言人周一(8月11日)宣稱，烏政府軍攻勢已經取得重大緊張，目前正在準備對親俄武裝分子盤踞的頓涅茨克發動最後一階段的的軍事行動。政府軍已經切斷了頓涅茨克叛軍和盧甘斯克叛軍占的聯系，使其完全孤立。

烏克蘭國防部發言人Andriy Lysenko周一(8月11日)表示，俄羅斯已經再度在該國與烏克蘭邊境集結了4.5萬兵力，配備坦克、導彈系統、戰鬥機以及武裝直升機等重型武器。俄羅斯國防部上周五(8月8日)曾表示，已經撤回了此前在烏克蘭邊境軍演的部隊。

中東局勢方面，上周美國方面也對對伊拉克境內伊斯蘭國(IS)的目標實施連續三天的空中打擊。以色列和巴勒斯坦周日(8月10日)同意接受埃及的提議，在加沙地帶自北京時間周一05:00開始新一輪的72小時停火。長達一個月的戰爭導致1,910名巴勒斯坦人和67名以色列人喪生，給人口密集的加沙地帶造成廣泛的災難性破壞。

荷蘭銀行(ABN Amro)分析師Georgette Boele表示，"如果金價無法在過去幾個月的眾多地緣政治風險下走強，那麽就有跌破1300美元關口的風險，因為另一方面美聯儲提前升息的預期不斷升溫也在推動美元上行，令金價承壓。"

瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)分析師Tom Kendall表示，"我不認為金價能夠漲至1350美元上方，因為當前投資者仍對黃金缺乏興趣和信心，黃金ETF持倉也沒有出現持續流入的趨勢。此外，當前美聯儲仍在逐步收緊貨幣政策，一旦市場消化上周美股暴跌的負面情緒，金價可能會出現下滑。"

全球經濟面臨不確定性風險前英銀行長力挺黃金

前英國央行(BOE)行長默文·金(Mervyn King)周一在澳大利亞佩斯參加勘探商與交易商大會中表示，隨著全球地緣政治和經濟不確定的風險日益增加，包括黃金在內的大宗商品價格將受益上漲。

他警告所有國家必須面對逐漸增加的債務水平，尋求解決方法，並表示央行極端的寬松貨幣政策不是最終辦法。

默文·金指出，"我們已經開始發現，全球經濟之所以復蘇如此緩慢，恰恰意味著央行貨幣政策不是解決問題的方法。我們需要其他政策來使全球經濟再平衡，當然這對於每個國家而言都不容易。"

默文·金強調，"重新平衡全球經濟需要重鑄不同主要經濟體之間的關系，同時還必須減少貿易順差，以便那些之前大量借債的國家削減貿易持續，並逐漸減少債務。這個改變必須是全球經濟作為整體，而不是單單一個國家。"

Source:http://gold.hexun.com.tw/2014-08-12/167439605.html