9 July 2014 - Gold Shines Again as Hedge Funds Boost Wagers on Advance |
- 9 July 2014 - Gold Shines Again as Hedge Funds Boost Wagers on Advance
- 9 July 2014 - Gold edges up on stray buying support
- 9 July 2014 - Gold Near Steady As Market Awaits Fresh Inputs
- 9 July 2014 - 金价年内目标1400美元
- 8 July 2014 - These 3 charts tell you to buy gold: Top technician
- 8 July 2014 - No ‘gold rush’: Germany keeps reserves in the US
- 8 July 2014 - 'Strong support' for gold market reform: industry body
- 8 July 2014 - 天金鼎谈新兴领域助力贵金属资源品 白银价格迎来新一轮上涨
| 9 July 2014 - Gold Shines Again as Hedge Funds Boost Wagers on Advance Posted: 09 Jul 2014 03:29 AM PDT By Marvin G. Perez July 08, 2014 Gold is precious again. After investors sent bullion tumbling in 2013 by the most in three decades and kept dumping the metal earlier this year, demand is now up and prices are defying bearish forecasts. Money managers increased net-long positions for a fourth straight week through July 1 and holdings in exchange-traded products are climbing at the fastest pace since 2012. "Gold's performance has proven the bears wrong so far this year," John Kinsey, who helps manage about C$1 billion ($935 million) at Caldwell Securities Ltd. in Toronto, said in a telephone interview yesterday. "We look for further strength through the balance of the year." VIDEO: Why Investors Are Happy With Hedge Funds While the latest government data point to an improved U.S. economy and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Societe Generale SA predict prices will retreat by year-end, inflation concerns and pockets of unrest are sending investors into gold as a haven. Prices extended gains after the Federal Reserve signaled earlier this month that it will keep interest rates near record lows and violence spread in Iraq and Ukraine. The bulls are being rewarded. The value of the gold funds rose by $4.6 billion this year as prices rallied 9.5 percent. The metal has rebounded from last year's 28 percent plunge that was triggered by muted inflation and as investors shunned the metal in favor of equities. Futures slid 0.1 percent to $1,316.20 an ounce on the Comex in New York at 12:35 p.m., after five straight weekly gains, the longest streak since January. The Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 raw materials climbed 5.2 percent in 2014, while the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities rose 4.9 percent. The Bloomberg Treasury Bond Index gained 2.8 percent. VIDEO: Geopolitical Risks, Weather May Boost Gold: Iaccino Gold Wagers The net-long position in gold rose 20 percent to 136,929 futures and options contracts in the week to July 1, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data published last week. That's the highest since March 18 and up fourfold since the start of the year. Short holdings betting on a drop retreated 29 percent, a fourth straight decline. Assets in bullion-backed global ETPs increased by 12.6 metric tons last week, the most since November 2012. Holdings are rebounding after six straight quarterly declines that began before gold entered a bear market in April 2013. VIDEO: Investment Seen Returning to Gold-Backed ETFs The U.S. central bank has kept its benchmark lending rate near zero percent since December 2008, even as it trimmed its monthly bond-buying program to $35 billion, after five straight cuts of $10 billion each since November. There is no need to change current monetary policy, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said July 2. Bullion jumped 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed bought debt and held borrowing costs at an all-time low. Mint Sales Gold sales from Australia's Perth Mint climbed to 39,405 ounces in June, a four-month high. Sales of American Eagle gold coins by the U.S. Mint totaled 48,500 ounces in June, up 37 percent from May and the most since January. For the first six months of the year, the sales totaled 266,000 ounces, the lowest for the period since 2008. The 2014 rally will reverse as global economic growth gains traction, according to Barnabas Gan, an economist at Singapore-based Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. and the second-most accurate forecaster for precious metals tracked by Bloomberg in the past two years. Bullion will retreat to $1,150 by the end of the year, he said by telephone last week. Societe Generale's Robin Bhar is the first-ranked forecaster. VIDEO: Investors Avoid Taxes in Muni Bonds, Puerto Rico Goldman View Prices will drop to $1,050 in 12 months, Goldman analysts reiterated in a June 23 report, unchanged from their outlook at the start of the year. The U.S. added 288,000 jobs in June, bringing the unemployment rate to 6.1 percent, the lowest since September 2008, government data showed July 3. Gold futures dropped 0.8 percent that day, the most since May. "Precious metals had risen because of the short-term concerns about inflation as well as geopolitical instability in many parts of the world," Chad Morganlander, a money manager at St. Louis-based Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., which oversees about $160 billion in assets, said by telephone July 3. "As the global economy improves and the U.S. enters an acceleration of economic growth in the coming months, gold prices will reverse and move lower." |
| 9 July 2014 - Gold edges up on stray buying support Posted: 09 Jul 2014 03:25 AM PDT By PTI | 8 Jul, 2014, 06.48PM IST MUMBAI: Gold prices moved up marginally, snapping a five-session downtrend at the bullion market here on renewed local buying interest amid investment off-take. Industrial metal, silver, also rebounded sharply following heavy speculative demand. Standard gold (99.5 purity) up by Rs 20 to settle at Rs 27,850 per 10 grams from Monday's closing level of Rs 27,830. Pure gold (99.9 purity) added Rs 25 to finish at Rs 28,000 per 10 grams as against Rs 27,975. Silver (.999 fineness) rose by Rs 220 per kilo to conclude at Rs 45,420 compared with Rs 45,200 yesterday. Globally, the yellow-metal remained under pressure and traded weak on investors caution amid uncertainty ahead of the Fed minutes outcome on Wednesday. |
| 9 July 2014 - Gold Near Steady As Market Awaits Fresh Inputs Posted: 09 Jul 2014 03:23 AM PDT From:http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2014/06/27/gold-near-steady-as-market-awaits-fresh-inputs/ INVESTING | 6/27/2014 @ 8:39AM By Jim Wyckoff (Kitco News) - Gold prices are not far from unchanged levels in early U.S. trading Friday. It has not been an active week for major, markets-moving news developments. Traders are wondering what the next fundamental catalyst will be for the gold market. August Comex gold was last up $0.50 at $1,317.50 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $0.10 at $1,317.25. December Comex silver last traded down $0.084 at $21.135 an ounce. In overnight news, there was more dour economic news coming out of the European Union Friday. The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicator came in at 102.0 in June from 102.6 in May. Forecasts were for a figure of 103.0. This reading comes after the EU made moves in early June to boost economic activity, including further easing of EU monetary policy. The report also said EU consumers expect inflation to continue to be very low. The civil war in Iraq is still an issue for the market place but it has at least temporarily moved off the front burner. Don't be surprised in the coming days to see this matter move back into the spotlight of the market place and once again significantly impact some market prices. U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Wyckoff's Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (Civil war in Iraq still has the world market place somewhat concerned but there have been no major new developments this week.) (Wyckoff's Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral. The London A.M. gold fix is $1,315.25 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,311.75. Technically, August gold futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are in a pause mode this week. A bull flag pattern has developed on the daily bar chart. A four-week-old uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the April high of $1,331.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,323.10 and then at this week's high of $1,326.60. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,313.20 and then at this week's low of $1,305.40. December silver futures prices hit a 3.5-month high overnight. The silver bulls have upside technical momentum and have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $21.825 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $20.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $21.30 and then at $21.50. Next support is seen at $21.00 and then at this week's low of $20.82. Source:http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2014/06/27/gold-near-steady-as-market-awaits-fresh-inputs/ |
| Posted: 09 Jul 2014 03:21 AM PDT From:http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20140709/12679695_0.shtml 来源：证券时报 作者：向伟 在经历了6月份6%以上的大涨以后，黄金价格7月份以来始终维持高位震荡，即使一片大好的非农数据也没有让金价走出7月份以来1309~1333美元/盎司这一狭窄区间。 美国劳工部7月3日公布6月非农就业人数远超预期；6月份失业率录得6.1%，也非常靓丽，但金价在短暂的下行后逆势迅速反弹，这已经体现出了市场目前对金价的看好情绪。 此外，全球最大黄金ETF基金SPDR7月至今共增持了13.17吨黄金，目前总持仓为798.19吨。虽然13.17吨这个数字很不起眼，但这已经是2013年以来较高的单月增持量，单月增持仅稍低于今年3月份的13.27吨，而今年年内高点1392美元/盎司正出现在3月份。号称黄金走势风向标的SPDR向市场传达了对金价看好的信号。 实物方面，黄金的表现也显示投资者过去对金价过于悲观了。据香港政府统计处数据显示，今年前5个月，中国内地从香港的黄金总进口量和去年同期正好持平，为400吨。印度方面，政府在预算案中宣布政策后，黄金的需求也可能上升。 目前来看，市场看多情绪的集中爆发是引起金价上行的主要原因，而伊拉克和乌克兰地区冲突升级可能成为金价向上突破的动力。美国方面，尽管就业形势大好，但仍未到高枕无忧的地步，比如其GDP数据的表现仍然十分低迷。在目前情况下，美国的财政政策短时间内难有变化，仍将以宽松为主。随着下半年黄金需求的增加，仍然有理由看好下半年的金价走势。 不过，我们认为，尽管黄金走势看起来十分乐观，但从更长周期来看，美元加息仍是悬于黄金上方的达摩克利斯之剑。今年10月份以后，美联储将基本退出第三轮量化宽松政策（QE3）。随着经济复苏和美国通胀加剧，美元加息将会提上日程。多家大型投行已经将美元加息时间预期从2016年提前两个季度至2015年下半年，美元的崛起是可以预见的。而这也决定着金价的上涨只是反弹，而不是反转，黄金的熊市还远未到结束时。 |
| 8 July 2014 - These 3 charts tell you to buy gold: Top technician Posted: 08 Jul 2014 06:37 PM PDT From:http://www.cnbc.com/id/101816231 Alex Rosenberg | @CNBCAlex 17 Hours Ago Gold has gone nowhere fast over the past two weeks, trading in a mere $30 range. But Carter Worth, chief market technician at Sterne Agee, predicts that the metal is about to heat up—beating a path to the upside that leads gold prices up to $1,500 per ounce, which would be the highest level since April 2013. When it comes to gold, "We remain new buyers and would be new buyers right here, in anticipation of the current 'bearish-to-bullish' reversal continuing and gaining urgency as new participants are drawn in," Worth wrote in a Monday note. So what, specifically, does this technician see that he likes? First of all, gold is up about 5 percent in a month, and this rise has been technically significant. "The strength of the past few weeks represents a tentative break about the down trendline that's been in effect since mid-2012," he wrote, and illustrated with the below two-year chart of gold. But that's not the only encouraging sign. Worth says his thesis that gold is bottoming is also supported by a perceived "head-and-shoulder" bottom. In this pattern, a chart trades down to a given level and rises, then makes a lower low and rises again, then falls again but not as low as it did previously. This pattern is thought to indicate that a negative trend is reversing. Finally, Worth pulls out his 150-day moving average, which seems to have finally stemmed its decline. All in all, Worth expects that gold will rise up to about $1,500—nearly 15 percent above current levels. At that level, however, Worth sees gold running into some resistance, as it will be left "back at an important level of overhead supply." In other words, many people will wish to sell gold at that level. —By CNBC's Alex Rosenberg |
| 8 July 2014 - No ‘gold rush’: Germany keeps reserves in the US Posted: 08 Jul 2014 06:35 PM PDT From:http://rt.com/business/170940-gold-germany-us-federal-reserve/ Published time: July 07, 2014 14:46 Germany's plan to bring back the nation's gold reserves to Frankfurt by 2020 has fizzled, and instead has for now decided to leave $635 billion of gold in US vaults. Home to the world's second largest gold reserves, worth $141 billion, Germany only keeps about one third of its gold 'at home', the rest is abroad. 45 percent is in the US Federal Reserve in New York, 13 percent in London, 11 percent in Paris, and only 31 percent in the Bundesbank in Frankfurt. "The Americans are taking good care of our gold, we have no reasons for mistrust," Nobert Barthle, the German Parliament Budget spokesman, told RT. Critics of the slow progress disagree. "While we haven't been allowed to inspect escapes me, I'm no conspiracy theorist, but the Bundesbank should be able to audit the gold once a year like it does with reserves in Frankfurt," Hans Olaf Henkel, German member of the European Parliament, told RT. In the end of June for the first time a Germany delegation traveled to New York to check up on their gold holdings, the first in the last 10 years. The lack of inspection has led some to question whether it's still there. The movement to 'bring the gold home' was largely led by euroskeptics who campaigned to repatriate all the country's previous metal by 2020. So far, they've only managed to bring back 10 percent, or 300 tons. Another 374 tons from the Banque de France is set to be returned to Germany in the near future. "We are still missing for example published bar number lists, even though the US Federal reserve publishes this list for their own gold," says Peter Boehringer, Founder of Repatriate our Gold Campaign. However, auditors last week said they were pleased with the US continuing to look after Germany's treasures. The delegation said there is no rush to bring it home, and that keeping it there even offers an advantage, as it can be used for emergency currency for gold swaps. After World War II, Germany bought gold from the US Federal Reserve, but decided to keep in overseas instead of back to the Bundesbank. During the Cold War, fear of a Soviet invasion made overseas storage a safer option. Recently, the Bundesbank has been criticised for not holding its reserves in Frankfurt, so it has decided that some should be brought back to Germany. Transporting the gold will be a high security operation. When France transferred its reserves in 1966 it used a submarine. Source:http://rt.com/business/170940-gold-germany-us-federal-reserve/ |
| 8 July 2014 - 'Strong support' for gold market reform: industry body Posted: 08 Jul 2014 06:28 PM PDT From:https://uk.news.yahoo.com/strong-support-gold-market-reform-205521934.html#14VDIw0 The World Gold Council, an influential industrial body, said Monday there is "strong support" for its plan to reform a century-old method of setting the price of gold in London. "There was strong support for the World Gold Council?s key principles for reform," senior WGC official Natalie Dempster said in a statement after a meeting here to discuss changes. ?We are at the start of a process that will lead to a reformed and modernised gold benchmark which attracts a broader range of market participants," added Dempster, whose official title is managing director, central banks and public policy. She spoke after the WGC convened a debate on how to modernise the so-called London Gold Fix. A total of 34 delegates representing all sectors of the industry attended, including central banks, bullion banks and trading exchanges. Among the key points in the discussion is "the need for a single, trusted, benchmark reference price," the statement said. London's Gold Fix, the global benchmark, affects the flow of billions of dollars worldwide every day. But it has been tainted by a rigging scandal and attacked by critics as old-fashioned. Analysts believe that the market price of gold, which is driven by investment and jewellery demand, could climb as a result of an overhaul. The benchmark gold price is set by four banks at 10:30 am London time (0930 GMT) and 3:00 pm, via teleconference. The banks -- Britain's Barclays (LSE: BARC.L - news) and HSBC, Canada's Scotiabank and Societe Generale (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) of France -- are all members of the Gold Fixing Company and agree the price twice daily. Germany's Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB-RI - news) pulled out of the panel earlier this year. The process begins with the so-called spot price of gold, which is based on the current market rate of contracts for physical delivery of the metal. The four banks must then declare whether they are interested in buying or selling at this level. The price can fluctuate depending on the balance of supply and demand, and settles on a "fixing". The system lurched into crisis this year when Barclays was fined more than £26 million ($45 million, 33 million euros) by British regulators after a ex-trader at the troubled bank admitted attempting to manipulate the gold price. The gold market remains subject to volatility as the metal is often seen as a haven investment in times of geopolitical uncertainty. In recent weeks, violence in Iraq has sent traders fleeing to gold. Gold jumped last week to a 3.5-month spot price high of $1,334.06 per ounce on the London Bullion Market. Prices had rocketed to an all-time peak of $1,921.15 per ounce in September 2011 on fears of a fresh global recession amid the raging eurozone debt crisis. Source:https://uk.news.yahoo.com/strong-support-gold-market-reform-205521934.html#14VDIw0 |
| 8 July 2014 - 天金鼎谈新兴领域助力贵金属资源品 白银价格迎来新一轮上涨 Posted: 08 Jul 2014 06:24 PM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-07-08/166423204.html 2014-07-08 12:00:00 来源：中国经济网 关注金融投资理财的人都知道，近年来，天通银价格累计涨幅高达42.12%，成为贵金属交易品种的明星，令不少投资者疯狂追捧。其中，今年3月中旬白银价格自阶段低点33.5美元/盎司，一路飙升至4月27日的最高49.77美元/盎司，一个多月的时间内涨幅达47.9%。随后白银价格出现33.8%的下跌，但经过三个月的盘整筑底，8月19日拉出中阳线向上突破，预计白银价格将进入新一轮上涨。 追溯到2010年美国实施第二轮量化宽松货币政策之初，人们更多看到的是国际金价强劲上涨，然而在黄金暴涨的背后，白银价格的涨幅却比黄金高出将近三倍。从更长的时间跨度来看，国际银价涨幅也远远高于金价的上涨幅度。 银价的弹性为什么会强于金价?相比黄金而言，白银具有更强的工业属性。据国际白银协会的数据显示，每年大约51%的白银消费在工业领域，这一比例远远高于黄金。详情请点击www.tjdco.com此外，作为贵金属黄金的兄弟，白银的金融属性也很强，加之其价格较低，投资门槛更低、增长潜力更大。因此，工业需求和投资需求成为白银市场主要的支持力量。 当今，全球流动性泛滥引致通货膨胀形势进一步加剧乃至国际货币体系动荡不安，使得大到国家小到投资者，开始增持白银储备，这使得白银供需矛盾进一步激化，从而继续推动白银价格上扬。 从历史走势来看，银价与通货膨胀率保持较高的正相关度。目前，美国继续维持量化宽松的货币政策，随着灾后重建的开始，日本也将向金融体系注入新的流动性，虽然欧洲已经加息，但面对迟迟未有明显改善的经济状况，各主要经济体除了继续大量释放流动性之外别无他法，其代价则是通胀危机不断和资产价格泡沫，对白银等贵金属资源品的影响的广度和深度可能超出预期。天金鼎集团是国内一流的综合性金融投资管理机构，总部位于深圳。专注于矿产资源及金融衍生品投资和其相关的资本运作，主营业务范围涵盖矿产资源投资、金融衍生品交易、资产管理、投资咨询、财富管理、理财规划、融资配资等。以客户服务为宗旨，坚持以客户利益为导向，通过安全稳定的交易平台、先进科学的投资理念、现货黄金投资优良卓越的资本运作、规范高效的公司管理、客观严谨的研究分析、踏实诚信的工作态度，为客户提供全面专业的金融服务，成为客户投资道路上最忠诚亲密的伙伴。 自从美联储实施第二轮量化宽松货币政策以来，白银ETF基金的投资需求迅猛增加，这些基金的头寸变动对国际白银价格的影响程度也在加大。以全球第一大白银ETF(SLV)为例，历史数据表明其持仓量与白银价格呈现正相关。其中，在2006年4月8日至2010年11月11日期间，其持仓量与白银期货价格的相关系数高达0.9334。 作为黄金的兄弟，也称为"穷人的黄金"，白银同样拥有抵御信用风险的硬通货属性，是稳健保值的投资品种。近一段时间内，白银ETF基金的增仓足以证明投资者对资产避险的强烈需求，从而有助于白银价格的进一步上涨。 众所周知，白银是重要的工业原料，广泛应用于电子电气、感光材料、医药化工、消毒抗菌、环保、白银饰品及制品等领域，其应用比其他贵金属都要广泛。近年来，随着应用技术的发展，天金鼎小编认为白银在一些新的消费领域扮演着重要的角色，尤其是在光伏产业中。日本福岛核电站爆发核泄漏危机之后，核能的安全利用引发了全球各国的深思。在此背景下，作为清洁、安全、环保的替代能源—光伏能源被全球各国寄予厚望。目前，光伏产业正以指数率的增长速度成为白银工业应用中重要的一块需求。全球知名贵金属咨询公司GFMS估计这部分的白银需求在2009年已经达到2800万盎司(870吨)。展望未来，预计到2020年光伏产业中白银的需求将达到1.86亿盎司(5800吨)，因此，低碳技术的发展将使白银的需求出现爆炸式增长。不仅如此，白银在其他新兴消费领域的需求也将迅速增加，这只会进一步强化白银资源的稀缺性，其价格保持中长期上涨趋势也将成为必然。 |
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