Posted: 05 Jun 2014 03:32 AM PDT

From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-06-05/165402127.html

2014-06-05 07:20:31 来源：FX168

全球最大实物黄金在线交易商BullionVault的5月投资者情绪指数为52.4，表明投资者更加倾向买入。而进一步数据显示，五分之一的净买家，出现在月末金价破位下跌之后。

金价在持续数周的三角震荡区间后，在5月最后一周大幅下跌，黄金市场弥漫一片悲观情绪。

然而，全球最大在线实物黄金交易商BullionVault的用户却对此不以为然。该机构5月黄金投资者情绪指数为52.4。指数高于50，表明倾向买入的投资者大于倾向卖出的投资者。

BullionVault拥有超过5.2万名用户，这些用户总共持有黄金加13亿美元。

BullionVault数据显示，5月净买家中有五分之一是在当月最后四天中有所动作的，正是这些买盘将该指数推高。在此之前，该指数在解决2年最低水平附近。

而在5月的最后几天中，金价大幅下跌约50美元/盎司。很显然，投资者们都在利用低价买盘

不过，实物买盘对于金价的直接影响有限。短期国际金价技术面依然有很大的下跌风险。

下图显示的是过去三年间该指数的走势。在2010年2月，指数曾一度跌至48.8的低点，而在2011年9月则涨至71.7的最高点。

Source:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-06-05/165402127.html

5 June 2014 - Indexology®: The Gold War of India’s Policy vs. U.S. Economy

Posted: 05 Jun 2014 03:28 AM PDT

From:http://www.etftrends.com/2014/06/indexology-the-gold-war-of-indias-policy-vs-u-s-economy/

June 3rd at 6:00am by Indexology Blog By SP Dow Jones Indices

This questions whether gold can recover after its biggest historical drop since 1981. According to the Federal Reserve, the U.S. economy is strengthening, labor market conditions are improving and inflation has been low in the expanding economy. According to Yellen, "looking ahead, I expect that economic activity will expand at a somewhat faster pace this year than it did last year, that the unemployment rate will continue to decline gradually, and that inflation will begin to move up toward 2 percent."

These comments don't fare well for gold so India's import policy may be its only hope for price recovery. Below is a summary of questions from a recent interview about the driving forces of gold.

Gold prices have cooled off in recent weeks and are hovering at around $1280-1290 an oz. The price is much below the year-before when levels of about $1380-1400 was seen in May 2013. What according to you is causing weakness in gold prices? The idea of gold as a safe haven means investors have used gold as a store of value. As the Fed tapers, the risk-off environment is subsiding with a potentially improving U.S. economy and stronger dollar, so the demand for gold as a safe haven has declined putting pressure on the price.

What are the factors that can help gold prices recover from these levels? Do you see that happening any sooner? A crisis might drive up demand for gold, which we have seen in mini waves as compared with the sizable global financial crisis. Recently spikes occurred from the tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Other supporting factors could be if Indian imports improve from lesser restrictions or if the Chinese local premiums increased to about double their current $3 levels over the global benchmark.

India has been a major gold consumer globally. The Indian government had taken measures to restrict gold imports to bring current account deficit under control. Are these measures hurting the gold market globally? How do you think Indian policies with regard to gold play a role in global price determination? Anytime an outside force interferes with the supply and demand equilibrium, there is an impact. India's restriction on gold imports has had an adverse effect on the price of gold by fundamentally enlarging the supply pool in circulation – or in other words – restricting demand from the world's second largest consumer.

What are your views about the industrial metals' demand and supply scenario for the rest of the year? Do you think Chinese demand and inventory built-up would continue this year for copper and other metals? With low inventories across the commodity complex, industrials are more susceptible to supply shocks than demand drops. Opposite from the impact on gold price from India's import restriction is the positive price impact of the Indonesian export ban of nickel on nickel price, which is up 38.1% in the S&P GSCI in 2014.

What kind of movement in demand and prices do you expect in overall commodities market during this year? The Chinese demand is having less of an impact on prices than the supply shocks since the inventories are low. The storage situations turned to shortages with diminished cushions to soften the blows of the shocks. This is a favourable environment for commodities from the combination of possible inflation and interest rate rises in conjunction with low inventories driving down correlations and up returns, again from supply shocks. We also may be at a turning point in the equity/commodity cycle that can be reflected through higher commodity performance than equity performance for the first time after six years.

How much importance does Indian commodities market hold in global markets? Is the new government formation in India going to affect commodities market globally? How? India is an important consumer of commodities, though the futures market is not yet developed enough to have contracts included from local exchanges in major indices. If the new government creates growth that may help the economically sensitive commodities like energy and industrial metals, but if there is turmoil, then gold may get a boost.

Several foreign investors and trade participants have shown lack of confidence in India's commodity exchanges, as the largest exchange in India, Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) is facing legal issues with its promoter getting arrested for allegations of financial scam. Has it affected the confidence of market participants and investors overseas? The market impact of investor confidence is difficult to attribute to isolated factors, especially on less developed exchanges. Again, generally, if investors feel fear, they may flee to gold as a safe haven rather than economically sensitive commodities.

This article was written by Jodie Gunzberg, global head of commodities, S&P Dow Jones Indices.

© S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2013. Indexology® is a trademark of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (SPDJI). S&P® is a trademark of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones® is a trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, and those marks have been licensed to SPDJI. This material is reproduced with the prior written consent of SPDJI.

Source:http://www.etftrends.com/2014/06/indexology-the-gold-war-of-indias-policy-vs-u-s-economy/

4 June 2014 - 两月后金价或重新走高

Posted: 03 Jun 2014 09:00 AM PDT

From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-06-04/165366042.html

2014-06-04 08:19:32 来源：南方报网—南方日报

5月份最后一周，国际金价连跌5日，创下了去年11月以来为时最长的新一轮下跌，连续跌破1270、1260和1250美元关口，截至6月2日，金价均价跌至1245美元/盎司左右。6月3日，国际金价在连跌五天后持稳，但仍在四个月以来的低位波动。

与国际市场相比，国内市场金银价尽管跌幅较国际市场较小，上海期货交易所、上海黄金交易所黄金期货、现货价也都创下了2月中旬以来的新低。

业内分析人士认为，本轮下跌主要与美国经济复苏、美元走强的大背景相关，据了解，近期欧元区制造业PMI数据表现不佳，而美国ISM数据表现较好，推动美元及每股双双走高，黄金延续承压小幅下跌。另一方面，乌克兰近期局势缓和，避险情绪带来的需求走弱。上述两因素与六七月份黄金淡季相遇，共同带来此番金价下跌。

分析美国经济复苏打压金价

广东省黄金协会首席分析师朱志刚表示，此次金价下跌也是在预料当中，早在此番下跌之前，金价已经在1300美元附近盘整了两个多月，之所以没有出现大幅下跌的情况，均因受地缘因素带来的避险情绪的影响，而一旦乌克兰形势缓和，在美元走强和经济大环境的影响下，下跌也成为必然。

美国商务部（DOC）此前公布的数据显示，美国4月耐用品订单月率增长0.8%，远优于预期的下跌0.5%，前值上修正至增长3.6%。

数据编撰机构Markit上周公布的一份调查报告显示，美国5月服务业扩张速度为2012年3月以来最快，因创造就业速度加快。美国5月服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）初值为58.4，3月终值为55.0。

标准普尔（Standard & Poor"s）公司此前公布的数据显示，美国3月大城市房价指数年率涨势有所放缓，再加上近期其他方面的房市数据表现比较强劲，表明美国的房地产市场活动有望加速复苏。

美国经济咨商会（Conference Board）也透露，美国5月咨商会消费者信心指数上升至83.0，4月消费者信心指数被下修至81.7，前值公布为82.3。

而在未来一周，市场还将关注周四的欧洲央行会议和周五的非农数据。这两者都可能对金价有负面影响。

专家投资者可适时买入

朱志刚认为，接下来金价继续下跌的可能性仍然很大。"每年的五六月份都是全年的低点，去年跌到1100多美元左右，今年可能也会跌破1200。"朱志刚表示。

不过，他也判断，此次金价继续下跌的空间可能没有此前下跌空间大，若未来跌破1200美元位置，很多买盘可能会重新买入，导致金价再度上涨。

随着金价连续大跌，黄金投资者此前举棋不定的观望状态似乎迎来了转机：新一轮下跌之后，黄金市场投资机会是否已显露？朱志刚透露，预计整个6月金价将震荡下行，反弹的可能性极小，预计八九月份金价可能重新走高。

朱志刚建议，由于黄金价格继续下跌空间不大，当前价位是一个入市的好机会，建议黄金投资者抓住下跌行情，根据自己的资金量分批买入。

南方日报见习记者陈若然

Source:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-06-04/165366042.html

5 June 2014 - 数据：实物买家不惧金价暴跌 5月末积极加仓

5 June 2014 - 数据：实物买家不惧金价暴跌 5月末积极加仓

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