20 June 2014 - Oil And Gold Prices Surge As Tensions In Iraq Escalate |
- 20 June 2014 - Oil And Gold Prices Surge As Tensions In Iraq Escalate
- 20 June 2014 - Gold soars more than three per cent
- 20 June 2014 - 金价急升3.3%突破1310美元 创两个月新高
| 20 June 2014 - Oil And Gold Prices Surge As Tensions In Iraq Escalate Posted: 20 Jun 2014 03:51 AM PDT INVESTING | 6/19/2014 @ 5:46PM With tensions in Iraq escalating to the point that President Obama said he would deploy up to 300 military advisers to the country, investors sent prices of gold and oil surging in Thursday trading. Gold, the classic safe-haven trade, reached its highest point in two months as oil, whose Iraqi production could see pressure if ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) militants move the conflict to the south of Iraq, surged to its highest price of the year. Bolstered by a drop in the dollar and the Federal Reserve's reticence to raise interest rates — not to mention the situation in Iraq — gold gained 3.7% in Thursday trading and surged to its highest price in two months. Gold futures, which hit as high as $1,322 an ounce during its regular trading session, settled at $1,314.10 for the day, its highest level since April 14. Spot prices, too, closed at $1,314 an ounce. Surging even more than gold on Thursday was oil: brent crude hit $115 a barrel, its highest price of the year, as WTI crude oil finished the day at more than $106 a barrel, a dollar short of the 52-week high it hit last week. The ETFs that track these commodities – SPDR Gold Shares, United States Oil and iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index — saw gains roughly commensurate with those of the commodities themselves. GLD finished Thursday trading with a 3.5% gain, US Oil closed 0.3% up and the iPath index finished the day with an 0.4% uptick. Stateside, oil's increases paired with the impending summer months and summer travel in the U.S. to send prices at the pump for a surge of their own. The national average for one gallon of gas in the U.S. is $3.68, up from $3.60 a gallon this time last year and the highest levels consumers have seen at the pump in June since 2008. "Oil is the lifeblood of a modern economy. Estimates vary, but each $10 increase per barrel can knock off about 0.2% from economic growth," Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, said in a note Thursday. "With U.S. growth currently expected to fall in the 3-percent range, this is significant. Oil prices have risen by about $3 over the last month, and they could be headed higher as the conflict worsens." The reason for the price surge in the wake of violence in Iraq is that the country produces a not-insignificant amount of oil, and if Iraqi oil fields are taken over and closed, global oil supply could shrink and send prices even higher. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recently projected that Iraq would be accountable for 3 million barrels of oil production a day for the second half of 2014, ranking the country as OPEC's second-largest producer. The somewhat good news is that most of Iraq's production occurs in the southern part of the country, and with the exception of the Baiji refinery (115 miles outside of Baghdad) — which Iraqi officials say they do have control over — ISIS has not ventured in this territory. "[We do not] expect ISIS to make much headway in the south, where the Sunni extremist group would be running into the Shi'ite heartland," wrote Citi analyst Seth Kleinman in a note on Thursday. He noted that investors are on edge "for good reason, as the world would struggle to replace the lost oil volumes if Iraq were to go the way of Libya." However, he pointed to accelerating exports in the Kurdish region as well as the low likelihood that ISIS reaches the south of Iraq as reason to be less concerned about oil's future price. "Iraq's key oil fields are southeast of Baghdad, and Citi does not expect ISIS to get as far as Baghdad. Some oil companies are removing non-essential staff but Basra operations and exports continue, and continue to make new highs with July loadings set at 2.8 million barrels of oil per day," Kleinman said. If ISIS does venture south, however, prices could rise rapidly. "Given how fast everything has transpired, if this were to spread into the south and impact exports it could be very dramatic," said Chad Mabry, a director and oil and production analyst at MLV and Company, in a phone interview. "This isn't hyperbole, it could easily send global markets back into recession with the impact. We could be looking at a significant rise in prices if those barrels were taken off the world market." Mabry notes that due to sanctions that have limited production in Iran and violence that has limited production in Libya, "you don't have much room for error within OPEC anymore because the burden then falls on Saudi Arabia to make up that delta." If there's one bit of good news amongst all the Iraqi turmoil, it's this: the U.S. has increased its production of oil and energy independence since the start of the last Iraqi conflict (which began in 2003), so the market's reaction is not as bad as it would have been if this were to have happened even five years ago. "The U.S. economy is significantly more energy efficient than it used to be, so the effects of price changes are simply smaller," says Commonwealth's McMillan. "Energy consumption per dollar of GDP has been cut almost in half since 1970. Although the relationship isn't linear, any effect from rising oil prices should be materially less than it has been in the past." |
| 20 June 2014 - Gold soars more than three per cent Posted: 20 Jun 2014 03:49 AM PDT AAP JUNE 20, 2014 8:58AM GOLD prices have posted the biggest daily gain in nine months, driven by investors who were caught flat-footed by the Federal Reserve's outlook for continued low interest rates. GOLD for August delivery, the most actively traded contract, on Thursday rose 3.3 per cent, the biggest one-day percentage gain since September 2013. The contract ended $US41.40 higher at $US1,314.10 a troy ounce, its highest level since April 14. Prices rocketed past the psychologically important $US1,300-an-ounce level, breathing new life into the market and luring momentum-chasing funds in as buyers, brokers said. Gold futures had crossed above their 50-day and 100-day moving averages in quick order, sending buy signals to investors who follow such technical indicators. Fed chief Janet Yellen on Wednesday gave a positive assessment of the US economy and reiterated that rates would stay low for a long time. The comments surprised some traders, who had bet against gold expecting a more hawkish view from the Fed, forcing them to cut their losses on Thursday by purchasing the metal. Prices for gold, which pays no dividend, tend to weaken in times of rising interest rates, as investors seek out higher-yielding assets. "It started with short covering, and then people began coming off the sidelines," said Axel Merk, head of Merk Investments LLC in Palo Alto, California, which has some $US400 million under management. "When gold starts to rally, people are worried about missing out." Gold also got a boost from continued violence in Iraq as well as rising tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Some investors buy gold in times of economic or geopolitical uncertainty, believing the metal will hold its value better than other assets. The US State Department on Thursday said Sunni extremists in Iraq had occupied what was once Saddam Hussein's premier chemical-weapons production facility, a complex that still contains a stockpile of old weapons. US officials said they didn't believe the militants would be able to create functional weapons from the material, but the seizure remains a concern. Also Thursday, President Barack Obama said American troops wouldn't be fighting in Iraq again, though he is prepared to take targeted military action in the country. In Ukraine, a NATO official said the alliance was seeing a buildup of Russian troops near the country's border, describing the development as a "very regrettable step backwards". Prices for gold are up nearly six per cent since hitting a yearly low of $US1,240.20 an ounce on June 3. But they are still below the intraday high of $1,392.60 set in March, which came amid worries that the US recovery was losing its footing, a concern that has been dispersed by an upturn in economic data. The stronger US economy, and a Fed that is expected to wind down its economic stimulus this year, had some investors doubting gold's rally would continue for long. "Even if the Fed is a bit slower to act, the trend should still be for higher interest rates and more tapering, which is negative for gold," said Sameer Samana, senior international strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors, which oversees $US1.4 trillion in assets. In other markets, platinum and palladium rose as a deal to end a South African miners' strike remained elusive, despite a tentative agreement reached between mining companies and the workers' union last week. Palladium climbed 1.9 per cent to $US836.80 a troy ounce, while platinum rose 1.6 per cent to $US1,474.50 an ounce. South Africa is the world's second-largest source of palladium and the largest platinum producer. The strike has led to market concerns about dwindling supplies of the precious metals. Silver for July delivery gained 4.4 per cent to $US20.648 an ounce, its highest settlement since March 19. |
| 20 June 2014 - 金价急升3.3%突破1310美元 创两个月新高 Posted: 20 Jun 2014 03:45 AM PDT From:http://finance.people.com.cn/money/n/2014/0620/c218900-25174662.html 2014年06月20日07:58 来源：人民网-理财频道 人民网北京6月20日电 （李海霞）19日，纽约商品交易所交投最为活跃的8月份交割的黄金期货价格大涨了41.40美元，涨幅3.3%，收于每盎司1314.10美元，该结算价创下今年4月14日以来的最高水平。 民生银行金融市场部分析师汤湘滨认为，近期受到地缘政治不确定性以及其他消息面的影响，导致原油市场动荡，进而引发金价上涨。 从国际市场来看，伊拉克局势的继续升温导致投资者对避险资产需求大增，以及美联储暗示将在长时间内保持低利率，两因素叠加之下，使国际金价应声上涨。 据报道，伊拉克北部城市拜伊吉的最大炼油厂遭到了逊尼派武装叛乱分子攻击，并被部分攻占，政府武装力量正在与叛军展开战斗。美国总统奥巴马周四发表讲话称"在伊拉克暴力冲突不断升级的情况下，政府将向该国派遣300名军事顾问"，随后国际原油价格大涨。 同时，美联储主席耶伦周三发表讲话称，美联储将继续维持接近0-0.25%的利率较长时间，导致市场投资者认为联储未来加息预期依然存在不确定性，美元汇率有所下跌，黄金买需进一步扩大。 然而，有分析人士指出，当前的黄金买需并没有可持续性。长期来看，在美国经济料将进一步走向复苏的背景下，美联储进入政策紧缩周期只是迟早的问题。而在经济走强的环境下，避险买需也会受到打压，这意味着从长远来看，黄金价格仍将运行于下跌周期。 从国内市场来看，金价难以颓势。以北京千足金为例，按照6月初的金价，和去年高峰时期相比，千足金市价已经下跌69元。这意味着，去年金价下跌时期中国大妈在第二季度消费的385.8吨黄金，如今已累计亏损约260亿元。 Source:http://finance.people.com.cn/money/n/2014/0620/c218900-25174662.html |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Home To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 | |
0 Comment for "20 June 2014 - Oil And Gold Prices Surge As Tensions In Iraq Escalate"