Sell gold | <b>Gold</b> Vulnerable To Manipulative <b>Sell</b> Off In June – Bargain Hunters <b>...</b> |
- <b>Gold</b> Vulnerable To Manipulative <b>Sell</b> Off In June – Bargain Hunters <b>...</b>
- <b>Gold</b> Coins from Saddle Ridge Hoard <b>Selling</b> Quickly | Coin News
- <b>Gold</b> “Important” And No Plan To <b>Sell</b> Significant Quantity Of – ECB <b>...</b>
| <b>Gold</b> Vulnerable To Manipulative <b>Sell</b> Off In June – Bargain Hunters <b>...</b> Posted: 30 May 2014 04:54 AM PDT by GoldCore Today's AM fix was USD 1,254.00, EUR 921.04 and GBP 749.33 per ounce. Gold fell $2.85 or 0.2% yesterday to $1,255.29/oz. Silver slipped 0.03 cents or 0.2% to $18.99/oz. Gold suffered its fourth straight losing session yesterday leading to a 4% fall for the week.
Gold bullion in Singapore traded sideways around the $1,258/oz level prior to a bout of concentrated selling at the open in London (0800 BST) saw gold quickly fall from $1,257/oz to $1,253/oz. The move lower this week would appear to be technically driven as there was no negative headline data, obvious reasons for price falls or indeed evidence of physical gold selling. Indeed, the mood music for gold is quite positive – especially the worsening situation in Ukraine and attendant geopolitical risk. One plausible factor for gold's weakness is the ever increasing, "irrationally exuberant" appetite for risk globally which may be impacting gold. Yesterday, the poor U.S. GDP number, which was much worse than analysts had forecast, did not lead to the bounce in gold that one would have expected. Nor did it lead to weakness in permanently levitating stock markets which continued on their merry way higher. The simplistic view that the U.S. economy's poor performance in the first quarter is purely weather related remains prevalent. This is despite increasing evidence that the U.S. consumer is struggling and close to being tapped out. The latter scenario is likely the case which will prove bullish for gold in the long term. Gold premiums in India almost halved this week on the belief the new government will ease restrictions on imports of the precious metal thereby increasing demand. Indian premiums fell to $30-$40 an ounce over the global benchmark, from $80-$90 last week, dealers told Reuters. In China, gold premiums ticked slightly higher this week but remain at around $3 per ounce. Chinese premiums have remained depressed this week, which suggests demand in China has not yet picked up on this week's price weakness. Special Notice Regarding Reduction In Premiums: Gold Bars Reduced To 1.6% Premium - Click Here Technically, gold is vulnerable to a further fall to test what appears to be a double bottom between $1,180/oz and $1,200/oz. This is particularly the case in the very short term, in other words, today and early next week. It is worth considering seasonal trends and June is traditionally one of the weakest months for gold (see heatmap). Gold's 5 year and 10 year average performance in June is negative.
It is also worth considering last year's performance. Gold saw massive concentrated selling in April and further weakness in May – from $1,476/oz to $1,386/oz. Then June saw gold fall again, from $1,386/oz to the $1,200/oz level at the end of June which marked the end of the 2nd quarter, 2013. This is a time when traders, investors and the media take stock and evaluate the relative performance of various assets. If one were attempting to paint the tape through price manipulation, one would aim to have gold lower at mid year and year end. This is exactly what happened. This had the effect of greatly reducing "animal spirits" in the gold market and snuffing out the potential for rallies given the very significant global demand that was occurring, especially in China. Gold then bounced sharply in July and August prior to giving up some of those gains in September, trading sideways in October and then trading lower in November and December prior to the what appears to be the second bottom – exactly at year end 2013 (see chart below).
Momentum is a powerful force and the short term trend is down and therefore further weakness in the coming days and in June is quite possible. However, gold's 14-day relative-strength index fell to 31.2 yesterday. The RSI is an important tool in a traders arsenal. These are the lowest levels since December and being near the 30 level indicates we are due a bounce soon. Gold frequently sees weakness and bottoms soon after options expiration which took place Tuesday. Also, $1,200 should remain support as the $1,200 level is the average cost to produce an ounce of gold globally. The fundamentals are continuing and heightened geopolitical risk and robust global demand as seen in the recent World Gold Council data. Chinese demand has fallen somewhat in recent weeks but there is now the possibility of the return of Indian gold demand with the newly elected Modi government in India. While gold is vulnerable technically to further weakness, its fundamentals remain sound. Some of the important gold related stories and developments this week which could yet propel gold higher include Putin's declaration that Russia and China need to secure their gold and foreign exchange reserves and China's plans to launch a physical 'Global Gold Exchange'. Overnight, ANZ Bank confirmed the story that it is seeking participation in the new international gold exchange in Shanghai. ANZ China CEO was quoted in the Wall Street Journal as saying "we are very keen to play a role in such a setup." Currency wars are heating up again and some of the key developments in recent days and weeks are gold bullish. In recent weeks, Russia dumped a record amount of US treasuries and Russia's central bank buys 28 metric tonnes of gold worth $1.4 billion in April alone. Last week Russia and China announced a landmark economic agreement which includes a natural gas deal worth $400 billion and increasing use of their own currencies in bilateral trade. This week Putin said Russia and China need to secure their gold and currency reserves and Russia set up the Eurasian Economic Union with Belarus and Kazakhstan. Armenia are to join within a month and Kyrgyzstan within a year. This comes against a backdrop of China openly calling for a de-Americanization of the world in recent months and China, Russia, Iran and 21 other countries signing an agreement bolstering cooperation to promote peace, security and stability in Asia. China is buying natural resources and hard assets globally and investing in infrastructure in Africa and West Asia in order to extract these natural resources. China is importing unprecedented amounts of physical gold and senior Chinese policy makers and officials have gone on record regarding how they view gold as in important strategic and monetary asset. Thus, while gold is vulnerable to weakness in the short term, the smart money is again accumulating and will use this latest bout of selling to acquire gold at what will in time be seen as bargain prices. All fiat currencies including the dollar, euro and pound are vulnerable to devaluations. As one astute commentator said on Twitter this week, being able to acquire cheaper gold given the state of the world today is "like being given discounts on life-rafts on the Titanic …" Special Notice Regarding Reduction In Premiums: Gold Bars Reduced To 1.6% Premium - Click Here  |
| <b>Gold</b> Coins from Saddle Ridge Hoard <b>Selling</b> Quickly | Coin News Posted: 29 May 2014 09:35 AM PDT Collectors are scooping up gold coins from the Saddle Ridge Hoard at a brisk pace. Nearly half of the 1,427 coins sold within the first dozen hours at per coin prices ranging from $2,500 to $10,000. The collection is estimated in value of at least $10 million.  This is a screen shot of a section of the Amazon.com website describing the Saddle Ridge Hoard of gold coins The treasure of gold pieces, discovered in buried cans on a couple's private land in California, went on sale during the evening of Tuesday, May 27 on the websites of Kagins.com and Amazon.com. A more expensive batch of higher graded coins was added to the sale on Wednesday, to include what is described as the "14 Finest Saddle Ridge Coins in Original Can." The asking price for the lot is $2.75 million. All 14 pieces are $20 Double Gold Eagles and authenticated by Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS). Specifically, the 14-coin lot includes:
The first coin alone, the 1866-S No Motto Double Eagle, is valued at close to $1 million. Excitement over the hoard has hit the mainstream media. Yesterday, USA TODAY published an interesting article about recent sales, quoting David McCarthy, the senior numismatist at Kagin's Inc.:
McCarthy was the person entrusted by the California couple to help them in learning about the gold coins. (Read about their discovery.) Believed to be the greatest buried treasure ever unearthed in the U.S., time looks to be running out for anyone wanting a part of the Saddle Ridge Hoard. As of this writing, 604 gold coins are listed for sale on Amazon.com and 64 gold coins are listed for sale on Kagins.com. Broken out by type, the hoard consists of 1,373 $20 Double Eagles, 50 $10 gold coins and 4 $5 gold coins. |
| <b>Gold</b> “Important” And No Plan To <b>Sell</b> Significant Quantity Of – ECB <b>...</b> Posted: 19 May 2014 04:28 AM PDT The ECB, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Riksbank of Sweden announced a new gold agreement this morning. They announced they have no plans to sell significant quantities of gold and reaffirmed the importance of gold bullion as a monetary reserve. Today's AM fix was USD 1,301.00, EUR 948.67 and GBP 773.85 per ounce. Gold fell $2.50 or 0.19% Friday to $1,293.10/oz. Silver slipped $0.12 or 0.62% to $19.36/oz. Gold and silver both finished up for the week at 0.34% and 1.10% respectively. Gold moved higher today in euros, pounds and dollars after the ECB and 21 other central banks announced a new gold agreement. The new agreement was expected but the timing was unexpected as the last agreement was not due to expire until September 27.
The crisis in Ukraine and risk of increased tensions between Russia and the west continues to provide support for gold. A further deterioration in relations seems likely and should push gold higher. Also supporting gold is the likelihood that the incoming government in India will relax import restrictions and duties, in the world's second largest buyer. Over the weekend, incoming Indian leader Modi told thousands of supporters that he represents a break from past governments after winning the nation's biggest electoral mandate in 30 years. Last week, Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan said that the new Indian finance minister will decide on easing gold import curbs.
Gold "Important" And ECB No Plan To Sell Significant Quantity Of Gold Twenty one central banks including the ECB, the central banks of the euro area (Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain), the SNB and the Riksbank announced the fourth gold agreement between the central banks for the next 5 years. In a joint statement, the central banks confirmed their intentions with regard to their gold holdings and the participants in the gold agreement made the following declaration: - Gold remains an important element of global monetary reserves. - The participants in the gold agreement will continue to coordinate their gold transactions so - The participants currently have no plans to sell any substantial quantities of gold. The press release from the SNB can be read here. The agreement, which applies as of 27 September 2014, following the expiry of the current
The timing of the announcement was unexpected as the current agreement does not expire until September. It is understandable that the central banks value their gold as "important element of global monetary reserves," given the still lingering economic problems in Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Cyprus and continuing ultra loose monetary policies in the Eurozone – with the possibility of negative interest rates. Thus, European central banks are likely to continue to be reluctant to sell their substantial gold reserves which total of 10,779.3 tonnes or 8,972.6 tonnes ( EU G6). There is also the fact that while Eurozone banks balance sheets have recovered somewhat, many are far from robust and remain vulnerable. Should there be a 'Black Swan' event or economies slow down again, central banks may require their gold reserves in order to maintain confidence in the single currency and other fiat currencies. It is believed that there is little appetite for a new gold agreement among the rest of the world and among the emerging market central banks such as China. Most of the central banks that were signatories to the Washington Agreement, clearly do not want to sell their gold reserves. The World Gold Council released data showing that global official gold reserves totalled 31,890.7 tons as of February, 2014. Of this total figure, the euro area held a total of 10,779.3 tons making it the largest holder of gold reserves in the world with 36.6% of the total global gold reserves. The second largest holder of gold reserves is the U.S. with 8,133.5 tonnes. China's central bank gold reserves data has remained at 1,054 tons since the beginning of 2009. No change has occurred in 4 and a half years, despite most market participants believing that China is quietly accumulating gold reserves. China is likely to announce a sharp increase in their reserves to over 3,000 or 4,000 tonnes in the coming months. The previous European gold agreement, agreed in August 2009, committed the central banks to sell no more than 400 tonnes per year and no more than 2,000 tonnes in the five-year period. Sales under the current pact have only totalled around 200 tonnes, 10 times less than was permissible. The global and Eurozone debt crisis created a new found awareness of gold as a safe haven monetary asset. This reluctance to sell gold is likely to continue. Indeed, many central banks are already under pressure to repatriate their gold reserves from the UK and the U.S.
Gold reserves and the price of gold are closely watched on financial and foreign exchange markets – as a barometer of inflation expectations, of systemic risk and of confidence in fiat currencies. The central banks at the time of the first agreement, the Washington agreement, affirmed that gold remained an important part of the global monetary system, setting the basis for a long and upward trend for the gold price. The initial statement does not mention the sales ceiling for the pact and some market participants are surprised they did not reaffirm the sales ceiling. The European Central Bank has told Reuters that there is indeed no formal ceiling included in the new CBGA. There was no mention of gold leasing and the use of futures and options by central banks in the agreement. There was in 1999 and 2004 but not in 2009 and again now. The Bank of England did not sign the agreement. The Bank of England signed the first Washington Agreement in 1999 but opted out in 2004 and 2009. The opt out may be because the UK gold reserves are now insubstantial. By signing the agreement, the BOE might again draw attention to Gordon Brown's controversial gold sales. Click here for the GoldCore Essential Guide to Storing Gold In Signapore. |
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