Gold Price In The Post-Nixon Era | Gold Silver Worlds

Gold Price In The Post-Nixon Era | Gold Silver Worlds
Silver and Gold Prices: The Gold Price Remains in it's Uptrend Since ...
Gold Price - A 40 Year Perspective :: The Market Oracle :: Financial ...
Gold Price Bearish Reversal Ahead :: The Market Oracle :: Financial ...
Jesse's Café Américain: Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - How ...
Gold Price Analysis- May 20, 2014 - DailyForex.com

Posted: 20 May 2014 11:37 AM PDT

Gold bull market: during the late 1960s and 70s

Gold bear market: during the 80s and 90s

Gold bull market: since 2001

Now we need to know:

Did gold reach a generational peak in 2011 and subsequently turn down?

Did gold reach an intermediate top in 2011, correct for 2.5 years, and then begin a rally likely to persist through the end of the decade?

My answer: Gold peaked in 2011, bottomed in June and December of 2013, and should rally for at least several years, and probably until the end of the decade.

Why?

Examine the following graph of weekly gold prices since 1977 and the 144 week simple moving average shown in red. The uptrend since 2001 is clear and pronounced. The correction since 2011 is unmistakable.

gold price from 1977 till 2014

The spreadsheet (not shown) indicates:

The peak in January of 1980 was 9.37 standard deviations above the 144 week moving average. The numbers are similar for the 100 week and 40 week moving averages. Clearly gold was in a blow-off bubble in late 1979 and January of 1980.

The peak in August of 2011 was only 2.15 standard deviations above the 144 week moving average. It was an intermediate peak, but NOT a bull market ending bubble peak that is likely to manifest within the next decade.

My conclusion is that gold prices were pushed too high in late 2010 and 2011 and have corrected since then. Currently gold is 15% BELOW (about 0.6 standard deviations) its 144 week moving average. Gold prices are very likely to be much higher next year and even higher by the next US presidential election in late 2016.

Gold did NOT blow-off into a bubble high in 2011, all the drivers for higher gold prices are still valid, international demand is strong, supply will be reduced when the western central banks run out of gold or terminate "leasing" into the market, and US, EU and Japanese government expenses, "money printing" and bond monetization are out of control and accelerating.

Gold prices will climb a wall of worry in the years ahead.

GE Christenson | The Deviant Investor

Silver and Gold Prices: The Gold Price Remains in it's Uptrend Since ...

Posted: 19 May 2014 04:32 PM PDT

19-May-14	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,293.80	0.40	0.03%
Silver Price, $/oz	19.32	0.03	0.16%
Gold/Silver Ratio	66.96	-0.083	-0.12%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0149	0.0000	0.12%
Platinum Price	1,469.40	4.10	0.28%
Palladium Price	815.40	0.60	0.07%
S&P 500	1,884.94	7.08	0.38%
Dow	16,510.16	18.85	0.11%
Dow in GOLD $s	263.89	0.22	0.08%
Dow in GOLD oz	12.77	0.01	0.08%
Dow in SILVER oz	854.47	-0.35	-0.04%
US Dollar Index	80.07	-0.04	-0.05%

The GOLD PRICE on Friday lost twenty cents. Today it rose 40 cents to end at $1,293.80. That came after, however, a bully opening to the day and climb to 1,305.70 about 9:45. Rest of the day the gold price just kept on backing up.

The SILVER PRICE rose three whole cents today to 1932.2c. Silver, too, began the day with promise of better things and a rise to 1968, but it faded like the gold price. These are simply dead markets, low volume, low ranges.

But silver remains in an uptrend since 1 May -- higher lows and higher highs, remember. The GOLD PRICE remains in an uptrend since 24 April, except that the last high was not higher so it has formed a long-nosed even-sided triangle. It's bumping up against that upper boundary line, but can't close above its 200 dma ($1,399.38).

Can't say nothing about nothing. Markets remain pretty much where they were on Friday, waiting for something to change.

Man, I am excited. I was watching some red paint dry this morning, and that got my blood up. Then I watched some blue paint dry, and that was terrific. But then I looked at markets today, and had to shout, "Be still, my beating heart!"

On a 104 point range (0.6% of the closing price) the Dow meandered to a close 18.85 (0.11%) higher than Friday's, at 16,510.16. S&P500 milled around and closed 7.08 (0.38%) higher at 1,884.94. That leaves the S&P500 above its 20 DMA (1,879.73) but the Dow below its 20 DMA (16,528.76). Both hit their 50 DMA's last week and rebounded higher. Both are stalled and drifting without much direction. That doesn't say that they can't go higher, just that they show no intention of that right now. Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver haven't stirred enough to talk about.

US dollar index is trying to rough up its newly made friends. Dropped another 4 basis points today to close at 80.07. Apparently wants to see if it can invalidate its recent upward reversal. Euro languisheth still, but rose today 0.12% to $1.3709. Still broken. Yen is slowly, o so slowly making good on its breakout. Higher by 0.06% today to 98.58, and reaching toward its 200 DMA at 99.09.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Gold Price - A 40 Year Perspective :: The Market Oracle :: Financial ...

Posted: 20 May 2014 08:59 AM PDT

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014 May 20, 2014 - 12:59 PM GMT

By: DeviantInvestor

In broad terms, gold was in a bull market during the late 1960s and 70s, a bear market during the 80s and 90s, and back in a bull market since 2001. The important questions are:

Did gold reach a generational peak in 2011 and subsequently turn down for a decade or two?

Did gold reach an intermediate top in 2011 based on QE, dollar weakness, and high demand, correct for 2.5 years, and then begin a rally likely to persist through the end of the decade?

My answer is: Gold peaked in 2011, bottomed in June and December of 2013, and should rally for several, and probably many, years into the future.

Why?

Gold and its 144-Week Moving Average Chart

Worthy of note from the spreadsheet (not shown) are:

The peak in January of 1980 was 9.37 standard deviations above the 144 week moving average. The numbers are similar for the 100 week and 40 week moving averages. Clearly gold was in a blow-off bubble in late 1979 and January of 1980.
The peak in August of 2011 was only 2.15 standard deviations above the 144 week moving average. It was an intermediate peak, but not the bubble peak that is likely to manifest within the next decade.
My conclusion is that gold prices were pushed too high in late 2010 and 2011 and have corrected since then. Currently gold is 15% below its 144 week moving average or about 0.6 standard deviations below that average. I don't suggest that gold prices must rally next week or even next month, but prices are very likely to be much higher next year and even higher by the next presidential election in late 2016.

What could push the price of gold LOWER?

Many of the TBTF banks have announced that gold prices will move sideways to down. Take this for what little it is worth.
The Fed and other central banks are fighting the deflationary influences in the economies of the world. Some believe those deflationary forces indicate gold prices will fall further.
Official US government statistics assure us that inflation is very low. Of course anyone who eats, drives a car, has medical bills, pays college tuition, or shops for groceries knows better, but official statistics show minimal inflation and some people think that means gold prices are unlikely to rise.
There are other reasons, but most center about the degree of control the Fed exerts over the economy, the control that the COMEX has over paper gold prices, and the Fed's desire and the government's need to keep gold prices low. Their control, power, and influence are undeniable but are probably overstated. I expect the primary gold bull market will reassert itself, regardless of central bank, government or COMEX interventions.

What will push the price of gold higher?

The Fed and other central banks are "printing money" and this, historically speaking, has always ended badly. Expect more consumer price inflation, declining purchasing power for currencies, and higher gold prices.
The US and Japanese governments are running large budget deficits and borrowing as if the credit to run bloated governments will always be available. The answer of course is that the debts will be paid with newly "printed" money and the cycle of borrow, run a deficit, borrow more, and print will repeat.
The US dollar, and most paper currencies, are backed by nothing more substantial than "full faith and credit" of admittedly insolvent governments.
The US official national debt exceeds $17.5 Trillion, which does not include unfunded liabilities that are perhaps another $100 - 200 Trillion. We all know this debt can never be repaid in dollars that are worth more than a tiny fraction of their current value. Perhaps the debt can never be repaid under any conditions other than hyperinflationary "money printing."
Our warfare/welfare governments are actively pursuing their own agendas and our politicians are encouraging the growth of warfare, welfare, and the size of government. It will be financed with printed dollars, euros, yen etc. The result will be decreased purchasing power of the dollar, euro and yen.
Geopolitical events such as a few wars here and there, more conflicts, perhaps a nuclear accident, a major earthquake, and a monetary system collapse could aggravate an already unstable financial world and accelerate the process of dollar devaluation, rising gold prices, and a shakeup in the use of the dollar as the reserve currency. Individuals and the more solvent nations will protect themselves with hard assets such as gold.
The citizens of China, Russia, and India and their central banks are buying gold in quantity. That demand is unlikely to decrease. The western world has been shipping a massive amount of gold to Asia for the past five years. What will happen to prices when that gold supply is restricted or terminated?
The Fed, central banks, and many governments want and need inflation, not deflation. They are likely to get it, and then blame their self-created inflation on the politically appropriate enemy at the moment, the current war, or some other diversion.
Government expenses are rising exponentially and more rapidly than revenues. Mathematically we know this cannot continue forever. Expect higher gold prices and all paper currencies to devalue against hard assets.

I could go on, but the situation is clear. Gold did NOT blow-off into a bubble high in 2011, all the drivers for continued higher gold prices are still valid, demand is huge, supply will be restricted when the western central banks run out of gold or choose to terminate "leasing" into the market, and government expenses, "money printing" and bond monetization are out of control and accelerating.

Gold prices will climb a wall of worry in the years ahead.

You may be interested in my comments on Silver and 2011 - here.

GE Christenson aka Deviant Investor If you would like to be updated on new blog posts, please subscribe to my RSS Feed or e-mail

© 2014 Copyright Deviant Investor - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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Gold Price Bearish Reversal Ahead :: The Market Oracle :: Financial ...

Posted: 20 May 2014 08:49 AM PDT

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014 May 20, 2014 - 12:49 PM GMT

By: Gregor_Horvat

Gold is moving sideways in 1268-1331 range for more than a month between two contracting trend-lines that make a shape of a triangle. We are looking at a running triangle in wave (b) that can be near completion as rise from 1276 is already in three legs that represents wave e), final leg in the pattern. With that in mind, traders should be aware of a bearish reversal down in wave (c) towards 1220/40 especially once 1277 and pattern support will give way.

Gold 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

Written by www.ew-forecast.com | Try our 7 Days Free Trial Here

Ew-forecast.com is providing advanced technical analysis for the financial markets (Forex, Gold, Oil & S&P) with method called Elliott Wave Principle. We help traders who are interested in Elliott Wave theory to understand it correctly. We are doing our best to explain our view and bias as simple as possible with educational goal, because knowledge itself is power.

Gregor is based in Slovenia and has been in Forex market since 2003. His approach to the markets is mainly technical. He uses a lot of different methods when analyzing the markets; from candlestick patterns, MA, technical indicators etc. His specialty however is Elliott Wave Theory which could be very helpful to traders.
He was working for Capital Forex Group and TheLFB.com. His featured articles have been published in: Thestreet.com, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory, Fxtraders.eu. He mostly focuses on currencies, gold, oil, and some major US indices.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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Jesse's Café Américain: Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - How ...

Posted: 16 May 2014 01:39 PM PDT

"The London Gold Pool was the pooling of gold reserves by a group of eight central banks in the United States and seven European countries that agreed on 1 November 1961 to cooperate in maintaining the Bretton Woods System of fixed-rate convertible currencies and defending a gold price of US$35 per troy ounce by interventions in the London gold market.
The central banks coordinated concerted methods of gold sales to balance spikes in the market price of gold as determined by the London morning gold fixing while buying gold on price weaknesses. The United States provided 50% of the required gold supply for sale. The price controls were successful for six years until the system became no longer workable. The pegged price of gold was too low and runs on gold, the British pound, and the US dollar occurred and France decided to withdraw from the pool. The London Gold Pool collapsed in March 1968.
The London Gold Pool controls were followed with an effort to suppress the gold price with a two-tier system of official exchange and open market transactions, but this gold window collapsed in 1971 with the Nixon Shock, and resulted in the onset of the gold bull market which saw the price of gold appreciate rapidly to US$850 in 1980."
Wikipedia, The London Gold Pool

The first chart below this evening compares the year to date performance of the SP 500, the NDX, the Russell 2000, and Gold.

If you have not noticed, gold and silver have been 'pegged' just below 1300 and 20 respectively. Someone asked me 'why these particular levels' the other day. I would hope the reason why they are capping the metals in the first place would be fairly self explanatory by now.

Who are 'they?' Some of the Western central banks have obviously formed a 'gold pool' through which they are attempting to manage the relationships of a number of currencies and economic factors affecting global trade, including the natural money of gold and silver. This is not my opinion. Central Banks hold gold in their reserves, despite what some monetary theorists might otherwise say. The Banks understand the long history of money, in its ebb and flow.

As you may recall, Phase I of the current Gold Pool ended with the collapse of the Washington Agreement, which was an attempt to prop up a failing arrangement often called Bretton Woods II. This failure became unmistakable with the change in the central bank behavior towards gold, from net sellers to net buyers, with the revolt of the BRICs.

We are in Phase II now, which is a loose confederation of Western banks being led by the Fed and the Bank of England who are attempting to maintain the status quo and US Dollar hegemony.

But the Western banks are running a bit of a con game with the Dollar, as it has already lasted well beyond its prime. You really cannot based global economics on a piece of paper that one country creates at will for its own domestic and foreign policy conveniences.

Not unless you are willing to sacrifice your own autonomy. Its a similar thing to the reason why the euro must eventually fail, because it is a single currency across a non-cohesive political union.

It is clear that China and Russia and parts of the Mideast are not on board with the Pool, and India is struggling against its own people. The US is flexing its muscles, but that sort of thing tends to become unsustainably expensive, even for those who own a printing press, but do not own the printing press.

The Fed and its crony central banks are clearly in a bit of a panic, and they are attempting to hold the line in the metals, while they try and manage the unfolding set of economic crises which they have created, and which are hardly resolved. They have sold the world for their Banks, and now must now sit down to a banquet of consequences, which they are loathe to do. They will throw institution after institution to the wolves before that if they are able.

The Gold Pool would like to strike a lower level, but as we have seen that is a bit problematic, because the vaults of the West were being emptied fairly steadily, and the miners will be having even more trouble staying in business at lower prices. And there remains a stubborn demand for the metals from the peoples of the Mideast and Asia, despite the efforts of the neo-liberals to bring them to heel.

I cannot predict exactly when this current cartel will fail, as the London Gold Pool fell when France withdrew for example. It is hard to predict an exogenous decision or shock. But there are no lack of guesses. Guessing is not a practical investment strategy, but it works in selling advice.

We will most likely see quite a cat fight amongst Zurich, Frankfurt, Shanghai and London for the next phase of the gold trading market. The foundations for Phase III, in which gold starts to trade more freely, have already been laid. And of course New York may attempt to rule the new gold trade, on the basis that possession is nine-tenths of the law. That ought to go over like a lead balloon with those nations whose sovereign metals are held hostage.

"As a reaction to the temporary closure of the London gold market in March 1968 and the resulting instability of the gold markets and the financial systems in general, Swiss banks acted immediately to minimize effects on the Swiss banking system and its currency by establishing a gold trading organization, the Zürich Gold Pool, which helped in establishing Zürich as a major trading location for gold."

When did the NY Fed say that they might be inclined to return Germany's gold? That bit of whimsy may provide us with an outer bound for a resolution of phase II of the currency war. Although the Fed is most likely being unrealistic as usual in their forecasting.

Perhaps we may see some better hints of it through the fog of deception as the time approaches. But it seems likely that when the new gold pool starts to crumble, the price levels may move with a bit of a bang.

Have a pleasant weekend.

Gold Price Analysis- May 20, 2014 - DailyForex.com

Posted: 20 May 2014 12:00 AM PDT

Start Trading Gold Now!

By: DailyForex.com

Although XAU/USD pair tried to climb yesterday, the bulls run out of gas and failed to break through the descending trend line which the market has been following recently. As a result, the XAU/USD pair pulled back to the bottom of the Ichimoku clouds on the 4-hour time frame and closed the day at $1292.78 an ounce. This suggests that neither the bulls nor the bears are strong enough to dominate the market at the moment.

For the last couple of weeks, the Ichimoku clouds on the weekly and daily charts have been blocking the bulls' way but the area between 1287/3 (50% retracement level based on the bullish run from 1182.35 to 1392.04) and 1277 (a former support/resistance) has been supportive. It appears that traders are reluctant to take sizable positions prior to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes.

The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its April 29-30 policy meeting on Wednesday. Since last week, I have been repeating that we were going to be range bound in the near term and it looks like this will be the case until we breach either the 4 week high, or low. Intra-day traders should pay attention to the support around 1287/3. If the bulls manage to defend this level, they might have a chance to break above the descending line and test the next barrier at 1307. A close above that would open the doors to 1312. However, if the bears win the fight and drag the market below 1287/3, it is likely that we will be testing 1277. Closing below the 1277 level on a daily basis would suggest that 1268 will be the next stop.

Gold Price In The Post-Nixon Era | Gold Silver Worlds

<b>Gold Price</b> In The Post-Nixon Era | Gold Silver Worlds

Why?

What could push the price of gold LOWER?

What will push the price of gold higher?

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