13 May 2014 - 推动黄金的最大因素在哪 四重底反弹能走多远 |
- 13 May 2014 - 推动黄金的最大因素在哪 四重底反弹能走多远
- 13 May 2014 - US Silver jewellers report increased sales in 2013
- 12 May 2014 - 投资公司策略师：欧洲制裁俄罗斯将利好黄金
- 12 May 2014 - Researchers Say There Could Be $300 Million In Gold At A 156-Year-Old Shipwreck Off The Coast Of South Carolina
| 13 May 2014 - 推动黄金的最大因素在哪 四重底反弹能走多远 Posted: 13 May 2014 06:28 PM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-05-13/164726814.html 2014年05月13日08:22 来源：FX168 在全球央行继续压低利率的情况下，通货膨胀了稳步上升，真实利率进入负值区域，可能比2011-2012年的情况更为严重。通胀飙升和负实际利率将给美元带来双重打击。这些因素可能极大地推动金价上行。 黄金在2008-2011年大涨期间，我们知道一系列因素催生了黄金牛市。如美元作为世界储备货币地位的下降；难于满足的亚洲实物黄金需求；美联储(FED）量化宽松政策引起恶性通货膨胀；实际利率保持负值区域；中央银行增加黄金储备。 但是在2014年5月，这些以前推动黄金大幅上涨的基本面因素会怎么样呢？他们还会发挥其效用吗？下一次推动黄金大幅上涨的基本面因素是什么呢？ 催生黄金牛市的因素将继续发挥作用 金融危机后，越来越多的国家的贸易结算抛开美元，双边货币互换协议不断涌出。央行外汇储备逐步从美元一家向多货币分散；最大美元持有国中国积极寻求外汇储备多元化。因此，美元在外汇储备中的强大角色弱化，美元的长期价值受到侵蚀(参考：美元在酝酿巨变？ 看黄金如何突破樊笼。 中国总理李克强近日在出访肯尼亚时表示，庞大的外汇储备已演变成中国的负担。李克强在与肯尼亚总统共见记者时说："从中国来说，如果整体上贸易不平衡，会给我们宏观经济调控带来极大的压力，我这里也坦率的说，比较多的外汇储备已经是我们很大的负担，因为它要变成本国的基础货币，会影响通货膨胀。" 数据显示，截止今年3月底，中国外汇储备达3.95万亿美元，全世界第一。这一规模占全世界外储总量的三分之一，比世界第二的日本要高出2.85万亿美元。 美联储(FED)若维持当前的缩减节奏，可能在年内结束购债，退出QE。但美联储主席耶伦称，美国劳动力市场仍存在大量的闲置产能，将在相当长的时间内维持低利率水平。世界各大央行仍旧在维持相当宽松的货币政策，有些国家的央行存在进一步宽松的可能。 地缘政治局势也是影响金价的一个因素。历史上看，战争或者入侵之类的事情一直都是短期因素。但这些因素如果通过某些方式影响到全球金融系统，就会演变为长期因素。当利比亚或者叙利亚出现动荡时，只会引发当地问题，对全球金融系统不会产生实质影响，因此也不会真正地影响到黄金。俄罗斯和乌克兰的事件相对比较严重，因为俄罗斯可能影响到金融体系。如果俄罗斯关闭了对欧洲的天然气供应，这可能会对全球金融系统产生巨大的影响。 通胀飙升和负实际利率或极大推动金价 但有一个因素可能比所有上述因素更可能引领黄金牛市的到来。在全球央行继续压低利率的情况下，通货膨胀了稳步上升，真实利率进入负值区域，可能比2011-2012年的情况更为严重。通胀飙升和负实际利率将给美元带来双重打击。这些因素可能极大地推动金价上行。 黄金在100日均线上方构筑四重底 日线图上看，黄金上行受到34日均线和55日均线压制，下行受到100日均线支撑。黄金在1277-1280区域上方持续盘整，形成四重底，波动区域逐渐收缩，黄金摆脱区域禁锢，突破选择方向的时间越来越近了。 花旗银行(CITI)近期的报告中写道，黄金正在1277水平构筑底部，颈线位于1331；金价收于1331上方意味着将升至1386。黄金中期关键价位为1433美元，该水平为2013年6月和2013年12月周线图上更大级别双底的颈线所在。 日线图上看，黄金在1277水平附近形成四重底,上行目标主要关注： |
| 13 May 2014 - US Silver jewellers report increased sales in 2013 Posted: 13 May 2014 06:26 PM PDT From:http://www.bullionstreet.com/news/us-silver-jewellers-report-increased-sales-in-2013/6010 Monday, May 12th 12:09 PM IST A large majority of retailers, 92%, said that they are optimistic that the current silver boom will continue for the next several years. WASHINGTON (Commodity Online): Seventy-three percent of silver jewelry retailers reported increased sales last year, according to Silver Jewelry Buying Trends, a survey conducted by trade publication National Jeweler on behalf of the Silver Institute's Silver Promotion Service (SPS). The survey also found that 66% of the jewelry retailers reported an increase in 2013 holiday season sales of silver jewelry compared to 2012. A large majority of retailers, 92%, said that they are optimistic that the current silver boom will continue for the next several years. SPS Director Michael Barlerin said: "While we already had anecdotal information from our program participants that 2013 had been an exceptional year for them, it was gratifying to see the quantifiable results from the survey. Additionally, the five consecutive year-over-year results are perhaps the most compelling I have ever seen."Other highlights of the survey include: -The following merchandise categories gave retailers the best maintained margins during the holiday season (percent rated as "best") -Silver Jewelry – 36% -Diamond Jewelry – 8% -Bridal Jewelry – 17% -Gold Jewelry – 13% -Platinum – 6% -The age group buying the most silver jewelry is 20 to 40 years old, according to 58% of retailers. The 41 to 50 age group was second.- Retailers said their silver jewelry sales, as a percentage of their overall jewelry sales, were on average 33% of their unit volume and 29% of their dollar volume; - Retailers report that the strongest selling opportunity with silver is for women buying silver for themselves.The survey was conducted online from February 4 to February 24, 2014. Source:http://www.bullionstreet.com/news/us-silver-jewellers-report-increased-sales-in-2013/6010 |
| 12 May 2014 - 投资公司策略师：欧洲制裁俄罗斯将利好黄金 Posted: 13 May 2014 06:24 PM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-05-12/164687773.html 2014年05月12日07:56 来源：中国经济网 Confluence Investment Management首席市场策略师Bill O'Grady周五(5月9日)接受采访时谈到了一个潜在支撑金价的利好因素，而市场目前尚未注意到这个可能性——俄罗斯资本的外逃。 Grady指出，由于乌克兰危机持续发酵，俄罗斯资本逃向欧洲的可能性远比想象的要高。本周四(5月8日)欧洲央行(ECB)行长德拉基(Mario Draghi)曾暗示将在6月进一步实施宽松，借此打压欧元汇价，这或许能侧面反映俄资本逃入欧洲对欧元造成的上行压力。 他强调，由于欧洲依赖俄罗斯的原油及天然气进口，因此近期并没有对俄罗斯实施明显的经济制裁，而美国却显得激进得多。所以如果要做出选择，俄罗斯的资金当然更愿意流入欧洲而非美国。 不过，Grady认为一旦欧洲最终决定制裁俄罗斯，则流入欧洲的俄资本将受限，这些资本可能会大规模转化为黄金。从制裁角度而言，黄金不会显示所有权是谁，因此更方便藏匿。 他最后总结道，尽管目前欧洲还没有限制俄罗斯流入欧元区的资本规模，可一旦制裁开始，黄金可能是俄资本最好的避风港。 |
| Posted: 13 May 2014 06:18 PM PDT From:http://www.businessinsider.my/ss-central-america-gold-recovery-2014-5/#.U3LESYGSyJq ROB WILE MARKETS MAY. 12, 2014, 7:26 AM A marine exploration group says it has recovered nearly 1,000 ounces of gold from a long-ago shipwreck 160 miles off the coast of South Carolina. Tampa-based Odyssey Marine Exploration announced it had completed its latest mission to the site of the wrecked SS Central America, which went down in a hurricane in 1857. We first heard about the story from William J. Broad in the New York Times. Gold contracts were recently trading at $1,288.90 an ounce, meaning the haul could be worth about $1.3 million. Among the specific items recovered: Five gold ingots believed to weigh between 96.5 and 313.5 ounces Two $20 Double Eagle coins A bottle A piece of pottery A sample of the ship's hull But this was only a recon mission, and many believe a lot more where this came from — up to $336 million by one estimate. The wreck was first probed 25 years ago, and ever since has been the subject of numerous claims. That actual owner remains on the lam, accused of bilking investors on the initial recovery enterprise he'd set up. The firm, Recovery Limited Partnership, is now in receivership, and its court-appointed receiver is now overseeing the entire project. The wreck of the Central America itself is an amazing, tragic story. It's said to have contributed to the Great Panic of 1857, since its reported $2 million (in 1857 dollars) gold supplies were destined for commercial interests in New York. Meanwhile, 425 people ended up drowning. You've got to read Broad's full piece to get a flavor of the zaniness of the entire undertaking» Odyssey is listed on NASDAQ as OMEX. Shares were up nearly 1.5% Friday. Source:http://www.businessinsider.my/ss-central-america-gold-recovery-2014-5/#.U3LESYGSyJq |
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