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- Trader Dan's Weekly <b>Gold Chart</b> Update - Market Sanity
- Harmony <b>Gold</b> Mining (HMY) Sees Hammer <b>Chart</b> Pattern: Time to <b>...</b>
- <b>Gold</b>, Banks, and Interest Rates | Stewart Thomson | Safehaven.com
- <b>Gold Chart</b> Analysis 2014.03.15 Multiple Time Frames | American <b>...</b>
| Trader Dan's Weekly <b>Gold Chart</b> Update - Market Sanity Posted: 20 Apr 2014 08:36 AM PDT Dan Norcini, Trader Dan's Market Views, 4/19/14 I wanted to take just a short bit of time between firing up the pit smoker and throwing some bovine flesh upon it to put up a quick chart of gold for the readers. As I mentioned on Thursday, gold is totally at the mercy of events in Ukraine for the time being. You can see on the chart that the metal has been range bound for some time now ( about one year ). Please keep this is mind when you read more breathless talk about gold being poised for a big move "any time now". How many of these "any time now's" have we read over the last year? Whether it is the GOFO talk or backwardation talk or "Russia is going to dump the Dollar" talk, or whatever. Technically not a single one of these premises, or others not listed, have changed the technical posture of this market for a year. If and only if the price breaks out of this range, can we say with certainty that the market has become concerned with these things. For now, it could care less and thus neither should we. The green rectangle defines the range which is near $1400 on the top side and just below $1200 on the bottom side for a range of some $200. Just last month ( March ) the price had rallied up to the top of the range only to meet with selling. That pushed it back down with it looking likely that it was headed down towards $1200 once more. However, events flared up in Ukraine and gold received some strong bids due to safe haven flows. Those bids came in near $1280. The circumstances due to these geopolitical concerns have created a new and higher bottom at the $1280 level. However, gold has been unable to push past $1320 for any length of time. That has carved out a new range within the broader range. This is marked on the chart as "Tighter Trading Range". Dan Norcini is a professional off-the-floor commodities trader bringing more than 20 years' experience in the markets to provide a trader's insight and commentary on the day's price action. His editorial contributions and supporting technical analysis charts cover a broad range of tradable entities including the precious metals and foreign exchange markets as well as the broader commodity world. He is a frequent contributor to both Reuters and Dow Jones as a market analyst for the livestock sector and can be on occasion be found as a source in the Wall Street Journal's commodities section as well as CBS Marketwatch where his views on the gold market can often be found. He publishes his views on the markets a few times a week at Trader Dan's Market Views.  |
| Harmony <b>Gold</b> Mining (HMY) Sees Hammer <b>Chart</b> Pattern: Time to <b>...</b> Posted: 22 Apr 2014 06:15 AM PDT Today, you are invited to receive a free Special Report from Zacks Investment Research. It reveals five companies that could gain +100% and more in the next 12 months. One is set to ride a little-known All-American energy boom. Another is a chip maker looking for big gains through Google Glass. Another could be the next alternative energy "Tesla." Privacy Policy | No cost, no obligation to buy anything ever. |
| <b>Gold</b>, Banks, and Interest Rates | Stewart Thomson | Safehaven.com Posted: 22 Apr 2014 09:23 AM PDT In many countries, inflation is beginning to creep higher. Please click here now. That's the Australia CPI (Consumer Price Index), courtesy of Trading Economics. The next report will be released today. Note the recent jump in prices. It comes as the Western economic recovery enters a more mature stage. Inflationary pressures normally tend to appear after a period of strong growth. When central banks raise interest rates to combat that inflation, a strong economy will weaken, but it's not disastrous. In the current situation, most Western governments have truly horrific balance sheets. Their economies are recovering from the 2008 meltdown, but very slowly. In the United States, this recovery has been one of the weakest on record. It's unknown how the Fed would respond, if prices began to rise strongly while GDP growth faded away. The central bank could quickly become "stuck between a rock and a hard place". Please click here now. That's the daily gold chart. I realize that in the Western gold community, a tremendous amount of bearishness has manifested itself recently. I think it's largely unjustified. As gold rallied towards $1392 in March, most investors were focused on the Ukraine situation. They believed gold was ready to surge above $1400. In contrast, I warned that large banks tend to take their cue from the action of Indian gold dealers. The banks will often enter short positions on the COMEX, when the Indian dealers reduce their physical gold bids. At the time, those dealers did indeed begin pulling their bids, and they talked about a likely drop to the $1300 area. That's exactly what happened. From there, Indians prepared to vote, and I suggested that while they headed to the polls, gold would trade in a range between $1280 and $1330. That's also precisely what has occurred. Charts don't create fundamentals. Fundamentals create charts. Bank traders take their cue from demand, or lack of it, in the physical gold market. Investors who are currently afraid of lower prices may be overly focused on the picture they see on various gold charts. As mentioned, fundamentals create charts, and when those fundamentals change, the picture on the charts changes quickly. On that note, a modest decline in price that occurs while the world's largest gold buyer class heads to the polls is perfectly normal. At this point, gold could continue to trade in that $1280 -$1330 range. It could also enter a new trading zone, either below or above the current one. I certainly don't see a possible new range of $1230 - $1280 as something that any investor should fear. To understand why that is, please click here now. That's the latest COT report for gold. It's clear that the most powerful banks in the world aren't afraid of this election-related softness in the price. They are aggressive buyers of outright long positions, and rightly so. Please click here now. That's the most recent COT report for silver, and the banks are even more aggressive buyers here. In both the gold and silver markets, I'd like to take a moment now, to invite the entire Western gold community to join the world's most powerful bullion banks on the buy side. The precious metals world changed in 2013. A gold bull market in gold ended, and a gold bull era began. To understand the true power of the Indian gold buyer class that helps define that era, please click here now. That's the ten year government bond yield in India. The yield is incredibly high, at almost 9%. Most Western gold analysts think that if a central bank raises interest rates, it creates heavy selling in the gold market. In the gold bull era, which is really the Chinese and Indian gold jewellery era, that mantra will no longer apply. When it comes to making their decision about buying gold, Indian gold buyers don't really care if interest rates are high or low. For all practical intents and purposes, their demand for gold is virtually inelastic. It rises somewhat during key festivals like Diwali, and it wanes a bit during events like the current election. Western bank traders take advantage of these modest fluctuations in demand, helping gold experience trending moves of $50 - $200. The bottom line is that the Indian economy is phenomenally strong, and poised to get vastly stronger after the election, regardless of who is declared the winner, and regardless of any change in US interest rates. Despite a whopping 9% government bond yield, Indian GDP is growing at a 5.5% rate. I'd like to pose an open question. What would happen to American GDP, if American interest rates went to 9%? Would American GDP rise to 5.5%? I think everyone in the gold community knows the answer to that question. The already anemic GDP growth rate would turn negative in a heartbeat, and the entire financial system would again be at risk of shutting down. Please click here now. That's the existing home sales chart for the United States of America. It's not a pretty picture, and the next report is scheduled for release today. Americans tend to buy gold when the economy gets into trouble, and the economic road signs are beginning to point towards the end of the road. In a few short weeks, the Indian election will be completed, and the world's most powerful gold buyer class will return to the physical gold market, with bids of size. They are ready to buy increasing amounts of gold from Western gold mines, for decades to come. I would argue that the world's most powerful bullion banks are buying gold and silver aggressively now, in anticipation of the imminent return of the Indian " titans of ton" to the physical gold market. Please click here now. That's the GDX daily chart. Western gold stock investors should be well accustomed to the more violent nature of sell-offs in their stocks, when there is modest softness in the gold bullion price. That's part of the gold stocks game, and players have to accept it with a shrug. I'm watching a key downtrend line that I've highlighted there, to accompany a sizeable return of the Indian buyer to the physical gold market. The buyers are not gone. Their bids are simply diminished during this election. That's why gold isn't declining much, even though some chart patterns are seen by amateur technicians as bearish. The bears are making a mistake, taking on both the Indian buyers and the bullion banks, using just charts. Gold is the ultimate asset, but perhaps some people have to learn that, the hard way! Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I'll send you my free "Gold Shorts Barbeque!" report. The widespread negativity that has permeated the Western gold community over the past few weeks opens the door to a " barn burner" of a short covering rally. I'll show which gold and silver investment vehicles I'm playing, to take advantage of this scenario! |
| <b>Gold Chart</b> Analysis 2014.03.15 Multiple Time Frames | American <b>...</b> Posted: 19 Apr 2014 05:20 PM PDT
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5 comments to this article
Bobby Christopher
on March 15, 2014 at 3:47 pm -
When this Ukraine/Crimea situation blows over look out below on Gold. How
about that COPPER price?…
Brian Rhoades
on March 15, 2014 at 11:11 pm -
Thank you for making this video and all the other ones Derek and have a
fantastic weekend yourself. Cheers!
Darren Fleet
on March 16, 2014 at 8:32 am -
Great video. Thanks.
Mark A
on March 16, 2014 at 6:19 pm -
Thanks D.
someparts
on March 17, 2014 at 2:46 am -
Good stuff. Like going to metals school for free.