Spot Chart | Trader Dan's Market Views: Weekly <b>Gold Chart</b> | News2Gold |
- Trader Dan's Market Views: Weekly <b>Gold Chart</b>
- <b>Gold</b> Market Update | Clive Maund | Safehaven.com
- <b>Gold</b> And Silver - Gann, Cardinal Grand Cross, A Mousetrap, And <b>...</b>
- Strong U.S. Dollar Rally Could Pull Rug From Under <b>Gold</b> and Silver <b>...</b>
| Trader Dan's Market Views: Weekly <b>Gold Chart</b> Posted: 19 Apr 2014 10:19 AM PDT I wanted to take just a short bit of time between firing up the pit smoker and throwing some bovine flesh upon it to put up a quick chart of gold for the readers. As I mentioned on Thursday, gold is totally at the mercy of events in Ukraine for the time being. You can see on the chart that the metal has been range bound for some time now ( about one year ). Please keep this is mind when you read more breathless talk about gold being poised for a big move "any time now". How many of these "any time now's" have we read over the last year? Whether it is the GOFO talk or backwardation talk or "Russia is going to dump the Dollar" talk, or whatever. Technically not a single one of these premises, or others not listed, have changed the technical posture of this market for a year. If and only if the price breaks out of this range, can we say with certainty that the market has become concerned with these things. For now, it could care less and thus neither should we.  The green rectangle defines the range which is near $1400 on the top side and just below $1200 on the bottom side for a range of some $200. Just last month ( March ) the price had rallied up to the top of the range only to meet with selling. That pushed it back down with it looking likely that it was headed down towards $1200 once more. However, events flared up in Ukraine and gold received some strong bids due to safe haven flows. Those bids came in near $1280. The circumstances due to these geopolitical concerns have created a new and higher bottom at the $1280 level. However, gold has been unable to push past $1320 for any length of time. That has carved out a new range within the broader range. This is marked on the chart as "Tighter Trading Range".  These two levels are our new boundaries which are confining the price for the time being. If the market senses any lessening of tensions in Ukraine, chances are that $1280 will not hold on the bottom. If not, there is a band of congestion between $1260 - $1240 that will draw it like a magnet should it fail. There is little support between $1240 and $1200 meaning that if $1240 were to fail, $1200 will be tested. On the upside, only a breach of $1320 would give the bulls the needed impetus to make a run to $1350. If events in Ukraine fade from traders' minds, the focus will shift back to US economic data with participants looking for clues to the Fed's future actions on in US interest rate front. Any improvements on the jobs front will immediately fan the flames of higher interest rates next spring, which the market continues to waver back and forth on. Higher rates will pressure gold as it should support the US Dollar. Again, we do not know what the economic data will look like and thus that leaves the markets very susceptible to sudden and sharp price swings either way as price responds to changes in expectations or sentiment along those lines. Lastly, here is the current Commitment of Traders data viewed in chart form as to the positioning of the large hedge funds in comparison to the price of the metal.  There was a rather large shift this week in the positioning of the hedgies as they were both liquidating stale longs and adding new shorts. The combination dropped their current net long position by some 8000 contracts or so. This is the reason for my concern if the $1280 level does not hold - there will be a significant amount of long liquidation among this category of traders if it does not. In another interesting development, the small traders, the general public, were selling gold this past week as well. Is the bloom coming off the metal for this category? They are net long still but this is the least bullish they have been in five weeks. Sentiment could be changing in the speculative community and that will bear close monitoring. Happy Easter.  |
| <b>Gold</b> Market Update | Clive Maund | Safehaven.com Posted: 21 Apr 2014 07:53 AM PDT By: Clive Maund | Mon, Apr 21, 2014 Originally published April 21st, 2014. In the context of the magnitude of the rally from the December lows that preceded it, gold's reaction from its March highs, see 1-year chart below, seems like a reasonable correction, although there have been some factors indicating that this is not a normal healthy reaction, such as the high downside volume, particularly in stocks. Gold was expected to make it to the resistance shown in the $1420 area, it didn't, and that's a negative, especially as the COT exploded to extreme readings at the March peak, indicating that the rally from the December lows may have been a relief rally in an ongoing bearmarket, and if it was, it implies that the price will proceed to break down beneath its lows of last June and December. Given the potential seriousness of the crisis in the Ukraine, it is surprising that gold is not doing better. Gold could turn up from the support at $1280, but if this fails, we are likely to see a retest of the lows above $1180. The volume pattern is not favorable however, as already mentioned, and nor is the general commodity COT, which we will come to later, which suggests that commodities will go down with stocks a little later in the year, in a depressing rerun of what we saw in 2008. The long-term chart for gold still looks hopeful. On its 15-year chart we can see that gold still looks like it is basing above its long-term uptrend line. However if this uptrend line fails, and the nearby important support at the lows of last June and December is breached, then gold is likely to drop back to the strong support in the $1000 area. This is what Goldman Sachs is calling, and what Goldman wants it often gets, as it did a year ago, because it is an elite organization with massive power and influence. Tactically the right way to handle this is to stay long, if long, and either get out on stop if $1180 fails or hedge accordingly. The long-term 20-year arithmetic chart for gold continues to show that this is a good point for gold to turn up, as it is still not far above its parabolic uptrend line, that could theoretically slingshot gold much higher. However, if this uptrend does fail and gold drops back to $1000, it will inflict heavy technical damage on gold, and may even imply that the world is tipping into a deflationary implosion. Massive deflationary forces are still out there, wanting as ever to correct the excesses of the past, but they are still being held at bay and worsened by insane and crassly irresponsible money printing on a scale that would certainly impress that great pioneer of inflationary excess, his imperial excellency Mr Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe. All of this QE and global money supply expansion to avert deflation can be compared to the way the sea recedes before a tsunami, once the deflationary forces return with a vengeance, the result will be utter devastation. Once this occurs, commodities and stocks will crater. Gold COT charts have eased from their extreme readings of mid-March so that they are now in middling ground, and while this opens up the possibility of a rally, there is still considerable room for improvement on these COT charts.
The dollar is now at a critical juncture. The view is now widespread that it will crash the key support shown on our 3-year chart for the dollar index at 78 - 79 and drop hard, which would of course be great news for gold and silver. On our chart we can see that the Distribution Dome shown looks set to force such a breakdown imminently, especially as moving averages are in bearish alignment. However, the dollar has a perverse habit of suddenly wrong footing the majority and doing the exact opposite of what they expect. So what could happen here is a surprise upside breakout from the Dome, which would be expected to lead to a powerful rally. Maybe an army of Russian gangsters will suddenly change all their rubles into dollars (lol). While the dollar chart does look set to break down on its charts, our suspicion that it might do the exact opposite is given credence by the latest COTs, which show that the Commercials have reduced their long positions in the dollar to a very low level, while the Large Specs have reduced their long positions to a very low level. This is bullish, and portends a probable upside breakout soon - now that will be bearish for gold and silver, and bearish for commodities generally, and we would expect for stocks too.
Public opinion on gold is now in middling ground, and is in itself neither bullish nor bearish...
The Rydex traders have very low assets in the Precious Metals, which in itself is bullish, as they are usually wrong, but this should be weighed against all the other considerations set out here.
Conclusion: if the dollar should break down soon then gold and silver are in position to start another major upleg. However COTs are indicating that instead there is a strong chance of a major dollar rally developing soon that would pull the rug out from under commodities and stocks, which would likely decline in tandem. There may be a little further upside in stocks, perhaps going into May, before this possible scenario unfolds. All Images, XHTML Renderings, and Source Code Copyright © Safehaven.com |
| <b>Gold</b> And Silver - Gann, Cardinal Grand Cross, A Mousetrap, And <b>...</b> Posted: 20 Apr 2014 07:49 AM PDT
The Square of Nine, the Circle of 360, his Hexagon, and Master Charts were all based on astrology. He did not openly admit that in his newsletters and writings, but he often mentioned "wheels within wheels," which was how the planets revolved around the Sun. Most people believe astrology to be akin to reading tea leaves or using a Ouija board, and he did not want to be put into that category. We will not get into astrology and the markets, but we have observed direct correlations between planetary movements and price action in stocks and futures. Not being astrologically adept, we leave it to others but acknowledge its validity. The point in mentioning Gann and astrology is next week's big astrological event, a Cardinal Grand Cross. Between April 20th through April 23rd, there are four days of supreme astrological intensity. They are bookended by the Full Lunar Eclipse, just passed on the 15th, and an Annular Solar Eclipse on the 29th. [Anyone can do an internet search to understand some of the terms below, like we just did to find out what a Blood Moon is.] Essentially, on 23 April, Pluto will be 180 degrees, [opposite] from Jupiter, and Mars will be 180 degrees from Uranus. All will be in the 13th degree of their respective Sun signs, forming a cross shape, thus the Cardinal Grand Cross. As the term implies, "opposition," usually entails a major polarizing effect. What can happen? The Ukrainian situation igniting that leads to war would be one example. Anyone interested can look up more. We just wanted to mention it because it could have an impact on world events, and to let people that from an astrological view, it was known ahead of time. [Not a specific event, but the basis for one.] Gann was mentioned to tie in a highly respected market guru with market astrology. Plus. we have witnessed market moves that were known to be timed to planetary aspects, in advance, and as recently as last week. ■4/15. Full Lunar Eclipse aka a 'Blood Moon' (4 consecutive Blood Moons throughout 2014 and 2015) Source: AstroShaman.com You would think that how the fundamentals have been so misleading to so many in the PMs community, that more would pay attention to what the market says and less to what others have to say about the markets. It is like building a better mousetrap and expecting people to come flocking to buy it, which they do not. Why not? Creatures of habit may be the simplest answer. We see charts as the "improved mousetrap," as it were, and superior as a tool for market timing over fundamentals, or any other similar undertaking, for relating to what and when to buy in the markets. Still, there are not that many converts who pay more attention to what the market is saying. The one thing we know for sure is, regardless of whatever one has in the form of expectations, they are always subordinate to the final arbiter over price, and that is the market itself. We make such a distinction on the daily silver chart, at the end. For now, here is our ongoing read of developing market activity for gold and silver: For months, we have been saying that the gold charts are not indicating a wild or even a sustained move higher. To the contrary, despite all the positive fundamentals for demand, on so many levels, price is marching to a different tune, far removed from all the known and highly constructive news about gold. If you were to base your decision-making on news alone, one is not making any money from buying gold. Does that mean one should refrain from buying it? The best answer comes from knowing your objectives. If you want security from the out-of-control fiat spending of all Western governments, then yes, this continues to be the time to buy gold, [and silver]. In addition to the insane and unprecedented creation of "money out of thin air," world-wide events are turning darker and darker. Gold and silver remain one of the best means for attaining financial peace of mind, and one of the best forms of wealth preservation. In this regard, price is of no consequence. Ownership is. Stay the course. There is ample evidence that your own government sees any money you hold in banks as theirs for the taking, [Cyprus, Greece, Ireland]. Rules, laws, statutes are already in place to have your funds confiscated, if you [wrongly] believe that it cannot happen to you. Both in the US and UK, at a minimum, there have been several published stories about people's safety deposit boxes raided for their gold and silver contents. If you do not want to be subjected to what is going on, and will surely only get worse and more widespread, than yes, buying gold and silver makes sense, not to make money, as an incorrect measure in the short-term, but to be safe and secure in protecting what you already have from being confiscated, in some manner. Obviously, owning and holding PMs means you do not keep it in some bank or [not so] safe deposit box. If you want to be profiting from owning gold, [and silver], then no, now is not the time to be committing to the long side, in general. That is more of a function of trading, and futures and options are the typical choices. We do not trade options, so they are never a topic of the charts we discuss. The best we can say about gold is that it may be transitioning from its protracted down trend. The signs that gold remains under pressure are still there, bearish spacing, lower swing highs, etc, and that means any buying has to be very select, or not at all, again, profit being the only objective. The chart comments are apt, and we will add that in addition to the high volume from four weeks ago, the very small range bar, at the low, supports the prospects that the bottoming process continues with increasing positive signs. That can change next week, if the market were to make lower lows, but unless and until that kind of event happens, we can only draw conclusions from facts that are known, and not from what may or may not happen. For whatever reason that it happened, last week's wide range bar down on sharply higher volume may contain price activity for the next several TDs, [Trading Days]. Look at the wide range bar lower, at the beginning of April, in the weekly chart above. It captured price within its range for the next 7 trading weeks. Then, at the end of April, same chart, there were two large bars down, and with the exception of a brief rally above the first of those two bars, price has been trading with their range for the past year! Because price closed well off the low of last Tuesday's sell-off, the sharply higher volume, and price at important support, tells us buyers are defending the 1280 area as support. Silver keeps trying. It is like the Little Engine That Could: "I think I can, I think I can..." One day, now sooner than later, it will move higher and get over the hill. As you view the daily chart, you can see price moving farther and farther along the RHS, [Right Hand Side] of the ongoing TR, [Trading Range]. The farther along price moves on the RHS, the closer it gets to reaching a final resolve, or a breaking free of the TR. That it is occurring at such a low-level, and at important support, an upside breakout is more likely. However, it is still possible for one more move lower to totally wash out weak hands and trigger sell stops, at the same time. Combined with comments on the weekly TR, you can see that silver just had a break to the downside of its recent little TR. We see it as a positive development because of how it happened: wide range, highest contract volume, close off the low, and no downside follow-through for next two TDs. Forget about your own expectations for higher prices, at least in the sense of wanting higher prices as soon as possible. It is the market that determines where price trades and for how long. Higher prices are coming! This is where all the developing fundamentals are put into a context, but the timing for when price will justify the fundamental expectations is determined by market activity. That activity, as just described, and as we have been saying for over a year, is saying, quite clearly, neither silver nor gold are showing evidence of an imminent move higher. Adjust your expectations to what the market is saying, and you will lower your anxiety level for disappointment and align yourself for what is. The definitions of is is that which is going on, right now, and not what is in your own mind, re gold and silver. By Michael Noonan Michael Noonan, mn@edgetraderplus.com, is a Chicago-based trader with over 30 years in the business. His sole approach to analysis is derived from developing market pattern behavior, found in the form of Price, Volume, and Time, and it is generated from the best source possible, the market itself. © 2013 Copyright Michael Noonan - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors. © 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. |
| Strong U.S. Dollar Rally Could Pull Rug From Under <b>Gold</b> and Silver <b>...</b> Posted: 21 Apr 2014 11:40 AM PDT By: Clive_Maund
Gold was expected to make it to the resistance shown in the $1420 area, it didn't, and that's a negative, especially as the COT exploded to extreme readings at the March peak, indicating that the rally from the December lows may have been a relief rally in an ongoing bearmarket, and if it was, it implies that the price will proceed to break down beneath its lows of last June and December. Given the potential seriousness of the crisis in the Ukraine, it is surprising that gold is not doing better. Gold could turn up from the support at $1280, but if this fails, we are likely to see a retest of the lows above $1180. The volume pattern is not favorable however, as already mentioned, and nor is the general commodity COT, which we will come to later, which suggests that commodities will go down with stocks a little later in the year, in a depressing rerun of what we saw in 2008. The long-term chart for gold still looks hopeful. On its 15-year chart we can see that gold still looks like it is basing above its long-term uptrend line. However if this uptrend line fails, and the nearby important support at the lows of last June and December is breached, then gold is likely to drop back to the strong support in the $1000 area. This is what Goldman Sachs is calling, and what Goldman wants it often gets, as it did a year ago, because it is an elite organization with massive power and influence. Tactically the right way to handle this is to stay long, if long, and either get out on stop if $1180 fails or hedge accordingly. The long-term 20-year arithmetic chart for gold continues to show that this is a good point for gold to turn up, as it is still not far above its parabolic uptrend line, that could theoretically slingshot gold much higher. However, if this uptrend does fail and gold drops back to $1000, it will inflict heavy technical damage on gold, and may even imply that the world is tipping into a deflationary implosion. Massive deflationary forces are still out there, wanting as ever to correct the excesses of the past, but they are still being held at bay and worsened by insane and crassly irresponsible money printing on a scale that would certainly impress that great pioneer of inflationary excess, his imperial excellency Mr Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe. All of this QE and global money supply expansion to avert deflation can be compared to the way the sea recedes before a tsunami, once the deflationary forces return with a vengeance, the result will be utter devastation. Once this occurs, commodities and stocks will crater. Gold COT charts have eased from their extreme readings of mid-March so that they are now in middling ground, and while this opens up the possibility of a rally, there is still considerable room for improvement on these COT charts. Chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com The dollar is now at a critical juncture. The view is now widespread that it will crash the key support shown on our 3-year chart for the dollar index at 78 - 79 and drop hard, which would of course be great news for gold and silver. On our chart we can see that the Distribution Dome shown looks set to force such a breakdown imminently, especially as moving averages are in bearish alignment. However, the dollar has a perverse habit of suddenly wrong footing the majority and doing the exact opposite of what they expect. So what could happen here is a surprise upside breakout from the Dome, which would be expected to lead to a powerful rally. Maybe an army of Russian gangsters will suddenly change all their rubles into dollars (lol). While the dollar chart does look set to break down on its charts, our suspicion that it might do the exact opposite is given credence by the latest COTs, which show that the Commercials have reduced their long positions in the dollar to a very low level, while the Large Specs have reduced their long positions to a very low level. This is bullish, and portends a probable upside breakout soon - now that will be bearish for gold and silver, and bearish for commodities generally, and we would expect for stocks too. Chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com Public opinion on gold is now in middling ground, and is in itself neither bullish nor bearish... Chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com The Rydex traders have very low assets in the Precious Metals, which in itself is bullish, as they are usually wrong, but this should be weighed against all the other considerations set out here. Chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com Conclusion: if the dollar should break down soon then gold and silver are in position to start another major upleg. However COTs are indicating that instead there is a strong chance of a major dollar rally developing soon that would pull the rug out from under commodities and stocks, which would likely decline in tandem. There may be a little further upside in stocks, perhaps going into May, before this possible scenario unfolds. By Clive Maund For billing & subscription questions: subscriptions@clivemaund.com © 2014 Clive Maund - The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maunds opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. © 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. |
W D Gann has long been recognized as an astute market trader, and followers of Gann have been trying to figure out his genius. The best way to describe how he made so many successful market calls is, in a word, astrology. Having died in 1955, we did not know him, but we were fortunate enough to have met and befriended his assistant, Robert Courter. He, too, has since died, but he confirmed what many who study Gann know, that William Delbert Gann was an extraordinary astrologer, exceptional.
In the context of the magnitude of the rally from the December lows that preceded it, gold's reaction from its March highs, see 1-year chart below, seems like a reasonable correction, although there have been some factors indicating that this is not a normal healthy reaction, such as the high downside volume, particularly in stocks.
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