Spot Chart | <b>Gold</b> Daily and Silver Weekly <b>Charts</b> - Metals Take Back Their Levels | News2Gold |
- <b>Gold</b> Daily and Silver Weekly <b>Charts</b> - Metals Take Back Their Levels
- <b>Gold</b> Miners Index: Domed House and Three Peaks <b>Chart</b> Pattern <b>...</b>
- 9 Exciting <b>Gold</b> And Money <b>Charts</b> | <b>Gold</b> Silver Worlds
- 4 <b>Charts</b> for Tuesday Afternoon -- Earnings, Natural Gas, <b>Gold</b>
| <b>Gold</b> Daily and Silver Weekly <b>Charts</b> - Metals Take Back Their Levels Posted: 08 Apr 2014 01:17 PM PDT There was no movement reported in the Comex gold warehouses yesterday. A few more contracts stood for delivery yesterday bringing the total to 427,000 for the month. Let's see how those contracts are resolved and what shows up in the warehouse reports. The junior miners had a bit of a pop today. We have a potential right shoulder forming up on the gold chart and on the silver chart as well. In this case follow through is everything as it is not yet a confirmed formation. The shameless shills and trashtalk trolls keep putting the worst possible interpretation they can find on even positive developments in the metals, while supposedly interjecting 'objectivity' into our expectations. They are hardly objective and have missed every metals rally since 2000. And on the other hand the legendary legends of legendarianism keep touting their sky high target valuations for gold and silver. I would settle at this point for a solid breakout from this clamp that has been placed on the precious metals for the past fourteen months. One step at a time. Let's allow the market to have its say. Talk is cheap, and at the end of the day performance is everything. The fundamentals are highly positive, and remain so. Have a pleasant evening.      |
| <b>Gold</b> Miners Index: Domed House and Three Peaks <b>Chart</b> Pattern <b>...</b> Posted: 08 Apr 2014 04:03 AM PDT By: Trader_MC
On the right side of the HUI Patterns Big Picture chart you can see that the three peaks (3-5-7) were followed by two strong waves decline into point 10. This down move defined the "separating decline" as prices separate the Three Peaks from the rest of the formation. Point 10 returned to point 28 and prices rebounced strongly on the Symmetry Guide Line as they normally do. You can also notice that the Domed House Pattern (275 weeks) lasted almost for exactly the same period as the Three Peaks Pattern (269 weeks). The Domed House and Three Peaks Pattern is now complete as final point 10 returns to points 28-1 level. I have been following this pattern for a long time and it is important to monitor such chart formation as it plays an important role in the market. As you can see, both the Domed House and the Three Peaks Patterns have violent up moves, followed by strong reversals. In order to understand how the market works, it is important to keep in mind that all markets return to the mean. On the charts below you can see that the HUI Index, the Gold/XAU ratio and the SPX are far stretched from the 65 Monthly Moving Average. Every time it happened in the past, it generated a violent regression move which is a normal reaction for a market that has been too extreme. (I also included the Bonds and the Commodities charts as additional examples.) These charts are suggesting that odds favor an upside move for the Miners and a correction for the SPX Index on the intermediate term trend. The next chart shows that the Gold/XAU ratio has reached its Base Pattern target and has a lot of downside potential. The vertical moves show how badly the Miners have performed to Gold these last two years. A regression to the mean may result in a violent down move and the Precious Metal stocks could strongly outperform the Gold Metal. Here is another chart of the HUI Index where you can see that prices are between the two major parallel trend lines. The false breakdown last December looks like a bear trap and could have been a Multi-Year Cycle Low as it was late in the timing band for the HUI to print a Yearly Cycle Low. The lower blue trend line of the primary channel is still acting as a resistance and needs to be monitored closely. If prices go back into the blue channel, it would be a bullish sign for Miners. Next is the Miners/Bonds ratio chart. You can see that the HUI/USB ratio rebounced on a strong support and broke out of a falling wedge. Miners are outperforming Bonds and I expect more and more investors to leave the Bonds sector and to come into Miners during the coming months. It is also interesting to keep an eye on the HUI/SPX ratio chart. Once a breakout of the resistance trend line occurs, Miners will be more attractive for the investors than the SPX Index. The HUI/SPX ratio got rejected right on the resistance trend line last month but the next attempt could be a successful one. Irrationally low prices are the greatest opportunities for the investors, as all markets return to the mean. For the moment, I think that we have a decent bottom in place but nobody can predict the markets with 100% accuracy as they are irrational and like to push things to the extreme. I therefore cannot rule out the possibility of one more down move in Miners – in order to bring extreme pessimism – but if it happens then I expect it to be very brief, as the regression to the mean forces should play out and that would result in a great buying opportunity. Trader MC My analysis covers different assets – Market Indexes, such as US, Europe, Emerging Markets, China, Russia etc., Commodities, Currencies (Forex Trading), Bonds and Rates. In addition to the Markets Updates for MC Members, I also post real-time Trading Alerts for MC Leveraged Members for a more aggressive strategy in all the sectors. Besides the market analysis, this site also contains Cycles Count Updates for all Market Assets, including the Forex Market. © 2014 Copyright Trader MC - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors. © 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. |
| 9 Exciting <b>Gold</b> And Money <b>Charts</b> | <b>Gold</b> Silver Worlds Posted: 06 Apr 2014 07:52 AM PDT In his latest monthly editorial, writer and researcher Peter de Graaf has pulled several charts together which show the status of the gold market. Apart from a positive seasonal influence, the fundamentals still point to strength in gold. The "fundamenals" in this context are basically the relative strength of precious metals compared to other finanical assets, in particular money (as reflected in the monetary base on the US Fed balance sheet) and stocks. The author adds some basic technical analysis to his article. Both short and long term, gold seems well positioned (the mid long term, though, is not explicitly elaborated). Historically the month of March is not very 'gold-friendly'. April and May are more conducive to providing a rally. The first chart is courtesy Seasonalcharts.com. The March pullback came on schedule and appears ready to turn into a rally. The next chart shows the number of US dollars that are currently circulating (courtesy Mark J. Lundeen). The number is over 1 trillion dollars, and rising exponentially. This is in addition to the trillions of dollars in digital form, which make up the money supply. This next chart shows the US Monetary Base, which continues to rise exponentially. The two tiny 'blips' in 2000 and 2001 represent the large amounts of money shoveled into the system by Mr. Greenspan to keep the system afloat. The amount of money that is added at this time is mind boggling. During the last 30 day period the base increased by 80 billion dollars. No 'tapering' here. While not all of this money will find its way into gold and silver, some of it will, and as the rally that began on December 31st picks up steam, more and more of this liquidity is expected to move into the precious metals sector.
The following chart compares gold to the US monetary base. The interpretation is that gold is cheaper than at any time during the past 100 years! The current reading is 0.4! When it climbs back to the 4.0 zone; that would imply a gold price 10 times higher than today. Chart courtesy: Macrotrends.net. The chart below confirms the fact that gold is very cheap at this moment. Mr. Lundeen compares the current gold price to the purchasing power of a dollar in 1920. He calculates that gold needs to rise to $8750 in today's dollars to return to what it was worth in 1920. This sets the stage for a continuation of the current gold bull market. The following chart shows the energy that is being provided by the US FED (by way of money printing), benefiting both the S&P (red line), and gold (black line). The gold price was pushed out of this relationship when huge numbers of contracts for paper gold were executed at the COMEX in mid-April 2013. On Friday April 12th 2013 at the opening of trading at the COMEX, 3.4 million ounces of gold contracts were dumped in the June contract. On Monday April 15th, another 10 million ounces hit the tape. The amount of gold (in the form of contracts) that was dumped over the two-day period represented 15% of total world gold production. Meanwhile, to fill demand from China, hundreds of tonnes of physical gold were released by the Bank of England, while a large amount of gold was pried away from GLD the gold ETF, in response to rising demand from Asian countries. Chinese and Indian people love bargains! That gold is now gone! It cannot be sold again! This has created a situation where, like a rubber band, the gold price is expected to snap back into the previous alignment. Featured below is the daily gold chart. Price broke out at the 200DMA (red line) in February and since meeting with resistance at $1400, a test of the breakout has been underway. The supporting indicators (green lines), are providing hints that support is available here. A breakout at the black arrow will tell us that a bottom may well have been carved out. The green arrow points to a 'golden cross', with the 50DMA moving into positive alignment with the 200DMA. Featured below is the index that compares gold to the S&P 500 index. In late 2011 this index became temporarily tilted in favor of gold. The reversal of direction that came about as gold dropped in price while the S&P 500 rose to new highs, appears to be ready to change direction again. Confirmation will come about when price breaks out at the blue arrow. The three supporting indicators (green lines) are ready to turn up. This last chart compares the price of gold to the US long bond. The blue line is the 400 week moving average. Up until 2003 it made sense to own bonds and not gold. The green arrow points to the moment when gold took charge. Since then gold has outperformed bonds. In 2011 gold had moved up a bit 'too far too fast' and a pullback in the relationship caused this index to return to the 400WMA, where it is finding support. A breakout at the blue arrow will cause many people to become interested in gold, and bond money is expected to flow into the gold sector, as the eleven year old trend picks up steam.
About the author: Peter Degraaf is an online stock trader with over 50 years of investing experience. He publishes a daily market letter. For a sample copy please visit www.pdegraaf.com. Courtesy of the excellent website Nowandfutures.com for the Greenspan quotes used in this article. |
| 4 <b>Charts</b> for Tuesday Afternoon -- Earnings, Natural Gas, <b>Gold</b> Posted: 08 Apr 2014 01:19 PM PDT Chart #1: Analysts Cut Earnings Estimates for S&P 500  Analysts have been hacking away at earnings estimates. More than usual. On the chart, you can see how earnings usually go after a quarter ends. Chart #2: Earnings Volatility  This chart from Bespoke Investment Group shows how volatile stocks in different sectors are on earnings day. Utilities stocks move the least in reaction to their earnings reports, with an average one-day change of just +/-2.15%. Financial stocks are the second least volatile at +/-3.61%. The most volatile? Technology stocks are the most volatile around earnings, with an average one-day change of +/-7.14%. Consumer Discretionary stocks are the second-most volatile at +/-6.18%. Read the original Bespoke report HERE. Chart #3: Half of Power Plant Capacity Additions in 2013 Came from Natural Gas  Read the whole EIA report HERE. Chart #4: Gold Bounces  And here are the screaming fundamentals for owning gold (with more chartage). |
The Miners Index has made a perfect Domed House and Three Peaks Chart Pattern. This pattern, discovered by a stock market analyst, George Lindsay, can be found in multiple timeframes. On the following charts you can see the model of the Lindsay's Domed House and Three Peaks Pattern, as well as the current chart of the Miners Index (HUI). You can notice that the HUI Index has made a perfect Domed House and Three Peaks Pattern during these last ten years.
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