Goldman: No reason to change prediction of 20% drop in <b>gold price</b> <b>...</b> |
- Goldman: No reason to change prediction of 20% drop in <b>gold price</b> <b>...</b>
- Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: The <b>Gold Price</b> Closed Higher at $1,303.10
- Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: The <b>Gold Price</b> Dropped $27.20 Closing at <b>...</b>
- <b>Gold Prices</b> 2014: Do What Goldman Does, Not What It Says :: The <b>...</b>
- Why <b>Gold Prices</b> Are Down Today - Money Morning
- Ukraine escalation lifts <b>gold price</b> to 3-week high | MINING.com
| Goldman: No reason to change prediction of 20% drop in <b>gold price</b> <b>...</b> Posted: 14 Apr 2014 10:36 AM PDT The gold price continued its recent strong run on Monday, boosted by safe haven buying after clashes over the weekend in Ukraine put markets on edge. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery last traded at $1,326 an ounce, a near 4-week high and up 10.7% since the start of the year. The 2014 rally in the price of gold has not convinced most bears, and on Monday Goldman Sachs said it's sticking to its original forecast of gold at $1,050 an ounce by the end of the year. Bloomberg quotes chief gold analysts at the investment bank Jeffrey Currie, who last year called the yellow metal a "slam dunk sell", as saying a recovering US economy and rising interest rates are the main reasons gold will weaken. "It would require a significant sustained slowdown in U.S. growth for us to revisit our expectation for lower gold prices over the next two years," Currie wrote in the report, dated The median forecast for the fourth quarter 2014 of the nine gold analysts tracked business news wire Bloomberg is $1,165 an ounce and the two most accurate gold price forecasters in the group are even more bearish seeing declines similar to that of Goldman Sachs. Rising US bond yields and market rates makes gold less attractive as an asset because the metal is not income producing. Higher rates also boost the value of the dollar which usually move in the opposite direction of the gold price. Some bulls have made the case that gold can appreciate despite these factors, because the US Federal Reserve is likely to be purchasing additional assets (and hence adding stimulus) until late this year and it may still be several years before US monetary policy is normalized. In addition, other globally important central banks are still likely to ease monetary policy further, notably the Bank of Japan but probably also the ECB. While last year saw gold's worst performance in over three decades, the price of the precious metal is still up 60% from where it was before the Fed first introduced its monetary stimulus program in December 2008. Image of Jeffrey Currie from Youtube  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: The <b>Gold Price</b> Closed Higher at $1,303.10 Posted: 16 Apr 2014 05:21 PM PDT
Franklin wont be publishing commentary over Easter, he will return Tuesday. Y'all have a blessed Easter celebration! Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: The <b>Gold Price</b> Dropped $27.20 Closing at <b>...</b> Posted: 15 Apr 2014 04:52 PM PDT
The GOLD PRICE dropped $27.20 (2.1%) to $1,300 while the SILVER PRICE erased 52.1 cents to close Comex at 1947.8c. For the gold price, two outcomes are possible. First is a return to or near the April low ($1,277.40). Second is a drop to a lower low, $1,240 - $1,260. Yet a third possible outcome is that the June and December lows were not a double bottom and one further drop may come. I account that the least likely, and look for a low here by the end of the week, but I'm no more'n a nacheral born durnd fool from Tennessee, so what do I know? Silver and GOLD PRICES have come unsynchronized. Silver's drop today wrecked the 1960c support, and sets the stage for a spike to next support about 1897c. This should come fast, next three or so days. You'd think that an institution charged with promoting the gold industry would produce reports that at least cast the best light on gold's prospects. You'd think wrong, if you're thinking about the World Gold Council. They've been negative on gold for, oh, the last 14 years or so. Today they issued a report that contained a nugget about Chinese business using physical gold as collateral for bank credit ($40 bn worth) but they managed to tease a gloomy forecast even out of this inventive monetary use. That and bad economic news out of China appeared to be the catalyst for gold's drop today. But when the drop is ready, the cause appears. That fall was likely already in the market, and the report, plus jitters over the first anniversary of the April Massacre in gold and silver last year, furnished an excuse. I had been thinking that the gold price had possibly completed a three leg (A-B-C) correction, but clearly another leg remains. That began today. Stocks recovered a bit today. Dow Closed at 16,262.56, up 89.2 (0.6%) and even jumped over its 50 DMA. S&P500 lifted 12.37 (0.7%) to 1,842.98, but not above its 50 DMA. Nasdaq Comp nearly touched its 200 DMA at 3,942.51 when it hit a low of 3,946.03, then turned up. Did that surprise anybody, that buyers were lurking at the 200 DMA? Stocks have suffered brutal technical damage. I suspect we will look back and see the early -2014 new all time highs as the peaks in stocks, although I still expect one last peak, maybe lower, maybe higher, in May. Although the US Dollar index rose only 6 basis points (0.7%) to 79.89, clearly money has flown into US treasuries because they are higher and the yield on the 10 year treasury is trying to break down, indeed, has broken down. Copper fell off the cliff with the bad news out of China, and closed at $2.99. Nasty break. The other scabrous, disgusting fiat currencies did nothing today, and the Central banking criminals were quiet. Y'all keep your heads. Lift your eyes to the horizon. In the next few days the market will hand you a superb buying opportunity in silver and gold. Get locked and loaded. Please remember I will be away the rest of the week attending a grazing seminar. I won't be sending commentaries, but will return on Easter Tuesday. Y'all have a blessed Easter celebration! Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| <b>Gold Prices</b> 2014: Do What Goldman Does, Not What It Says :: The <b>...</b> Posted: 16 Apr 2014 10:01 AM PDT By: Money_Morning
That might sound contradictory at first, but not when it comes to Goldman. Jeffrey Currie, the investment bank's head of commodities research, has repeated his $1,050 target several times since last October, when he declared gold a "slam-dunk sell" along with other precious metals.
That Goldman has seen fit to repeat its $1,050 so frequently over the past six months smacks of frustration. While gold prices did briefly slip below $1,200 in December, the yellow metal is up about 17% since then. Gold prices were trading at about $1,327 on Monday afternoon - hardly the tumble Currie predicted last fall. Last month, as gold prices were touching their high of $1,382, Currie took the opportunity to remind the world that Goldman was still bearish. "It would require a significant, sustained slowdown in U.S. growth for us to revisit our expectation for lower U.S. gold prices over the next two years," Currie wrote in a research note. Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth disagrees. From where he sits, the gold selloff pretty much exhausted itself in January. "The largest physical gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE ARCA: GLD), sold off 42% of its metal between its record high in Dec. 2012 and Jan. 2014, or 564 tons of gold. That selling looks to have bottomed in mid-January and GLD holdings have started to grow again since then - a major trend reversal," Krauth said. While gold prices may not get back to $1,900 an ounce, neither are they likely to slump down to $1,000. Even if gold prices do slip back below $1,200, demand from central banks as well as Asia is likely to keep them from slipping to $1,100 or lower. So why is Goldman so insistent that gold prices are going to drop all the way to $1,050, and why should investors view the bank's forecasts with caution? To answer that, we need to look at Goldman's track record... Goldman and Gold Prices: A Shady History Let's first look at some of Goldman's gold price forecasts over the past few years and how they panned out. For example, back in 2007, Goldman was bearish on gold, telling its clients to sell. In fact, Goldman declared selling gold in 2008 one of its Top 10 tips of the year. Of course, gold prices rose 12.2% in 2008 and another 23.4% in 2009. By November 2011, Goldman was actually bullish on gold prices - it raised its target to $1,930 an ounce about one month after gold prices had peaked. By May 2012, with gold prices below $1,600, Goldman adjusted its bullish target to $1,840 an ounce. Gold prices did rise slightly after that, but never made it to $1,800, and thereafter started a precipitous decline. By December 2012 - when gold prices were trading in the neighborhood of $1,700, Goldman revised its forecast to $1,800. Six months later gold prices were slipping toward $1,200. Goldman finally reversed course in February 2013, beginning its string of bearish forecasts that have continued to the present. That's actually good news for gold prices, as Goldman always seems to be late figuring out where gold is headed. Or is it? Does Goldman Manipulate Gold Prices? It doesn't quite make sense that a top-shelf investment bank like Goldman Sachs would be wrong so often about the direction of gold prices. But when you look at Goldman's own gold investing habits, a suspicious pattern emerges. Goldman is usually buying while it publicly advocates others to sell, and vice versa. It knows many investors will follow its "advice," which in turn helps Goldman to buy gold at lower prices and sell gold at higher prices. Sure enough, as Goldman was declaring gold a sell last year, it was scooping up the yellow metal like crazy. In the second quarter alone it bought 3.7 million shares of the GLD ETF - valued at about $500 million. If you've ever suspected gold prices are being manipulated, you're not alone - and you're right, they are," said Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald. "Bigger firms like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, PIMCO, or any of a dozen other behemoths simply release a 'research report' that is interpreted as gospel by the mainstream media and swallowed hook, line, and sinker by millions of unsuspecting investors as a reason to buy or sell." Knowing this is going on is vital for retail investors, not just so they don't get snookered by the Wall Street heavyweights, but so they can adjust their own strategy accordingly. Fitz-Gerald said dollar-cost averaging - buying a set dollar amount of an investment at regular intervals - is one tool people can use to avoid becoming a Wall Street patsy. "Dollar-cost averaging forces you to buy more when the price is low and less when the price is high," Fitz-Gerald said. "Maybe you can't compete with the big banks, but you can beat them at their own game." Do you believe the reports on precious metals and stocks issued by the Big Banks are valid or simply tools to manipulate the markets? Tell us on Twitter ;@moneymorning or Facebook. Source : http://moneymorning.com/2014/04/14/gold-prices-2014-do-what-goldman-does-not-what-it-says/ Money Morning/The Money Map Report ©2014 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email: customerservice@moneymorning.com Disclaimer: Nothing published by Money Morning should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investent advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication, or after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Money Morning should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. © 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Why <b>Gold Prices</b> Are Down Today - Money Morning Posted: 15 Apr 2014 01:14 PM PDT Gold prices took a beating Tuesday, plunging nearly 2% and marking the yellow metal's worst day of the year.  June gold finished the session down $24.50, or 1.83%, to $1,303.10 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted off $23.80 at $1,303.25. Spot gold prices fell to a low of $1,228 an ounce intraday, but managed to claw back some gains in the afternoon. Still, even fresh Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures showing a slightly higher than expected read on inflation in March failed to goose gold prices much. Fueling the slide was profit taking - gold hit a three-week high in the prior session. Sizeable long positions accumulated Monday as gold traded over $1,320 an ounce, and there were plenty of shorts today, Chintan Karnani, chief market analyst at Insignia Consultants in New Delhi, told MarketWatch. A huge number of stop-loss orders were triggered when gold slipped below the key $1,300 level. Gold wasn't the only metal battered Tuesday. The pain was felt across the entire precious and basic metals markets - from copper to palladium. "It started off with nickel," a New York trader told Kitco. "We're just having kind of a panic in thin markets." News that tensions are again flaring up between Ukraine and Russia failed to stoke investors' fears and provide some support for safe-haven gold. Underscoring the growing geopolitical unrest simmering in the region, Ukraine's acting president launched an "anti-terrorism operation" in the besieged eastern areas Tuesday and seized an airport about 120 miles from Russia. "It is a case of once bitten twice shy," Karnani explained. Traders took a bullish gold stance Monday on Ukraine unrest, with the yellow metal gaining 0.6%, or $8.50 an ounce, to $1,327.50. "Now they are extra cautious going long. The rise (if any) will be slow and steady unlike the fall which was quite fast," said Karnani. Also weighing on gold prices was a report released Tuesday from the World Gold Council -- although it has some bullish news for the long-term gold outlook... China News Hits Gold Prices TodayThe WGC reported that demand in the world's biggest gold consumer nation, China, is apt to stay flat this year. China's gold demand this year will be slow compared to a record high hit in 2013. That's truly troubling because gold consumption in China has expanded every year since 2002, with last year particularly strong. Demand in the Asian nation surged 32% in 2013, propelling the country past India to take the top spot in the rankings of the world's gold consumers. But, it's unlikely that the robust pace will be as strong this year even if gold prices dip further, the WGC added. "We're looking at best for it to be on par with 2013," Albert Cheng, managing director for the Far East at the World Gold Council, told The Wall Street Journal. Among reasons cited are that many in China believe they already have enough of a gold stash, and the latest rebound hasn't been substantial enough to lure new buyers. While demand may be muted this year, things look much brighter medium term. Demand for gold bars and coins in China could reach close to 1,350 metric tons over the next four years as an increasing population grows more affluent, the WGC adds. That would be a hefty 25% increase by 2017. Before Tuesday's rout, gold was up a healthy 10% year to date, handily besting returns from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 Index, and the Nasdaq. Since the start of the year, the benchmarks are down roughly 2.5%, 1%, and 4% respectively. Investor Alert: The shellacking the markets took last Thursday is a bearish omen, but a market correction wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. In fact, volatility creates tremendous opportunity. Here are three ways you can turn fear into profit. Related Articles:
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| Ukraine escalation lifts <b>gold price</b> to 3-week high | MINING.com Posted: 14 Apr 2014 03:01 PM PDT
 The price of gold built on recent gains on Monday as safe-haven buyers returned to the market on growing fears of a ratcheting up of violence in Ukraine and the threat of a European "gas war". On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery in late afternoon trade exchanged hands for $1,327.50 an ounce, up $8.50 from Friday's close. Gold is now the highest in almost four weeks and is up nearly 11% since the start of the year. Gold was supported by investors seeking the relative safety of gold as a hard asset after news of renewed clashes between security forces and pro-Russian activists in the east of the country. The government in Kiev on Monday called for the deployment of United Nations peacekeeping troops as part of its "anti-terrorist" actions in ten cities where official buildings have been occupied by protestors demanding greater regional autonomy. Russia has demanded that Ukraine does nothing to inflame tensions and stepped up its propaganda war, although many in the West suspect that Moscow's strategy is to weaken Ukraine's new government to prevent the country from integrating with the EU. Russia is a major supplier of gas to Europe – 40% of it in the case of Germany – with a significant portion of it via pipelines that run through Ukraine. Last week Russia warned it may start cutting off supplies to Ukraine over unpaid bills of some $2 billion. European natural gas prices have been rising steadily since the crisis began, but analysts point out that the use of gas supplies in the stand-off may end up hurting Russia more in the long term as its European customers look elsewhere for supplies. The EU has been considering tougher economic sanctions against Russia but at a Luxembourg meeting on Monday foreign ministers did not impose any punitive measures on Moscow. UK oil major BP talked of repercussion if the relationship with the Kremlin should deteriorate further pointing to its 20% stake in state-owned oil company Rosneft. Inside Ukraine the economic crisis deepened on Monday with the country's central bank lifting benchmark interest rates by 3% to 9.5% to support the falling currency, the hryvnia, and fight inflation. The Ukraine central bank also warned that foreign exchange reserves have fallen to barely two months' import cover. Image is from US Army Europe: Paratrooper from 173rd Airborne Brigade during Rapid Trident military exercises over Ukraine in 2011. |
David Zeiler writes: Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) must really want to buy more gold; this week it repeated yet again its forecast for gold prices in 2014 to drop to $1,050 an ounce.
But investors need to be very skeptical when looking at Goldman's forecasts for gold prices. Not only are they often wrong, but the bank frequently does the opposite of what it recommends.
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