<b>Gold Price</b> In Ukraine 75% Higher In 2014 | Gold Silver Worlds |
- <b>Gold Price</b> In Ukraine 75% Higher In 2014 | Gold Silver Worlds
- The <b>Gold Price</b> Gained $15.50 this Week Ending at $1303.20
- Doug Casey's Coming Super-Bubble | <b>Gold Prices</b> | Gold Investing <b>...</b>
| <b>Gold Price</b> In Ukraine 75% Higher In 2014 | Gold Silver Worlds Posted: 21 Apr 2014 09:56 AM PDT As we have repeated over and over again, gold should primarily act as an insurance policy which protects your purchasing power during a currency crisis. And despite the fact that most economic pundits want us to believe there is an economic recovery, the truth of the matter is that the recovery is very weak; the economy remains fragile. Apart from that, a global currency crisis is playing out and it will probably hit most of the currencies in the years ahead. Recently, in the heat of the emerging market crisis, we wrote Gold Price Exploding In Emerging Markets. The charts in the article show the explosive price action in local currencies of the emerging markets that were hit hardest. That's the insurance policy in action. Another "real time" example of the inverse correlation between currency and gold is Ukraine. Their currency, the Hryvnia, has been in free fall in 2014. It is the world's worst performing currency this year. The following chart shows how the Hryvnia has been devalued significantly against the USD in 2008/2009, from 0.22 to 0.12. It remained rather stable until 2014, as the currency collapsed from 0.12 to 0.08 since the start of this year. At the same time, the price of gold in Hryvnia went from 4,000 to 8,000 in 2008/2009. Since the beginning of this year, Hryvnian gold exploded from 10,000 to 17,444 last week. One could easily observe that this is an example of runaway inflation, even hyperinflation. In such a situation, gold is known to hold its value. It proves that people do not hold gold to have more value in terms of a currency. Rather, one holds gold as monetary insurance to preserve its purchasing power when things turn out bad. Those owning gold in Ukraine can make use of it in the coming months to buy the same amount of products like food and fuel as before. Some could use this crisis as an opportunity and buy land or businesses to generate future income. The irony in this story is that Ukraine had doubled their official gold reserves, from 20 tonnes to 40 tonnes, over the course of the past decade. With the recent tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the United States stepped in and "rescued" the gold reserves of Ukraine. Some weeks ago, pro Russian newspaper, reported that orders were given by one of the "new leaders" of Ukraine to transport all the gold reserves of the Ukraine to the United States. Or, as Zerohedge observes rightfully, "the best source of validation, and refutation, of this story would be the people of Ukraine, alas since not even Americans are entitled to observe how much gold is in Fort Knox, somehow we doubt that the Central Bank of Ukraine will be any more lenient in providing visiting and viewing hours for its much more compact gold inventory. Especially since the local population is far more busy celebrating its "liberation" by western powers."  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The <b>Gold Price</b> Gained $15.50 this Week Ending at $1303.20 Posted: 11 Apr 2014 05:21 PM PDT
The GOLD PRICE backed down $1.40 (0.7%) today to $1,318.70, while that rascal silver gave up 14.5 cents (0.1$) to 1993.3. Gold's loss signifieth nothing, as it remains above its 200 ($1,298), 50 ($1,314), and 20 (1,311.25) day moving averages, as well as support/resistance at roughly $1,318. Every indicator I watch points higher, so why am I gnawing my nails? Gold's moving slowly and that scoundrel silver won't climb up high enough to confirm gold's move. Of course, that is easily explained by the weakness in stocks, but still . . . The GOLD PRICE weekly chart shows upward bias, too, and gold stands above its 18 week MA ($1,284.43) and 50 week MA ($1,312.79) and barely above its downtrend line from August 2011. All burners lit. The SILVER PRICE actually fell back from its 20 DMA (2007c) today and closed below it. 2015c keeps stopping it. In fact, silver needs to throw a leg over 2050c and run. Yes, yes, all the indicators point higher, but this is awfully slow and trying. Back off and review the last year. The gold price must better its $1,434 peak from last August, then climb over $1,550 where it was clobbered last April. Silver needs to beat its recent 2218c high, then its 2512c August high, and then 225c where it fell off a year ago. Until gainsaid, the double bottom in June and December says silver and gold prices won't drop any lower, and that they have begun their next leg up. Bull markets always climb a wall of worry, so y'all ought to expect that now. Meanwhile gold and silver's best friends remain the Federal Reserve, world central banks, and the yankee government since their policies are bound to send them higher. Wall Street bled and bled this week, and no bandaids are in sight, let alone tourniquets. US dollar index broke, too, while silver and gold held up and the white metals (platinum and palladium) also gained. Nothing normal about this situation, and a stock market rout always carries in its bosom the threat of contagion to other markets. 2008 was not so long ago. Stocks had their worst week since memory runneth not to the contrary, and today only opened more blood vessels. Technically the damage astounds me. Dow lost 385.96 points this week or 2.4%, 143.47 points today (0.89%) 7 closed at 16,026.75. That's 3.3% lower than the high close on 3 April. Damage doesn't stop there. Dow closed today beneath its 50 day moving average ((16,172) -- 20 DMA (16,331.25) was left behind yesterday. Recall that in November last year the Dow "threw over" its upper boundary line. Today it crossed beneath it again, and for good measure punched thru the bottom Bollinger Band. February's low was 15,340.89. The Dow could fall much, much further as Don't overlook the Nasdaq Composite. It's lost 8.3% since its downtrend began on 5 March. Since 2 April it has lost 6.5%. It, too, languisheth far below its 20 and 50 DMA, and treadeth not far from its 200 DMA (3,936.25). Then there's the S&P500. Down 2.6% this week, it lost 17.39 (0.9%) today to end at 1,815.69. 200 DMA stands at $1,761.43 and the last (February) low at 1,737.92. Why do I mention the 200 DMA? In a rising market the price spends most of its time ABOVE the 200 DMA. From time to time in large corrections it will re-visit its 200 DMA, and wide knowledge of this fact means that investors will wait to buy there, and thus support the market. A bfreak below the 200 DMA is very bad juju. This is a rout, like First Manassas. The blue army is running back to Washington and throwing away rifle and knapsack as they flee. Mark, however: it is not impossible for stocks to return and make one last high in May. Dow in Silver dropped 0.54% today (4.36 oz) to 802.94 oz (S$1,038.14 silver dollars) in what appears to be a downtrend renewed after the correction from March through 1 April. Dow in Gold has really tanked. Dropped another 0.91% today to 12.16 oz (G$251.37 gold dollars) and skidded to a stop smack atop the 200 DMA. Bottom of that correction was 11.62 oz (G$240.21) so the DiG has not far to travel to confirm unequivocally a new downleg. US dollar index experienced a Niagara week, and waterfalls don't flow up. Gained 10 basis points today to end at 79.57. Stinks. Sits below its 20 and 50 DMA, but won't confirm a new debacle until it closes below 79. Euro has been the chief beneficiary of the dollar's woes, but is now stuck below its last peak. Ended today flat at $1.3876. Yen has met its major downtrend line and top of its 2 month trading range. Must fish or cut bait or row back to the dock. Flat at 98.42 cents/Y100. Could escape skyward. I watch the Philadelphia Bank Stock index divided by Gold because that reveals which way the investing public's confidence is leaning. The spread is a fraction, with the bank stock index as the numerator and the gold price as denominator. Thus when gold is rising faster than the Bank Stock Index the denominator is growing faster than the numerator so the graph falls. Voilà, chart is here: http://bit.ly/1sOiOAy This spread peaked early in January, sank with the gold rally/stock correction into end-February, rose as stocks rallied and gold corrected, and since 1 April has cascaded down to close at its 200 DMA today. It has twice already reached this point in March, not a hopeful sign. This suggests investors appetite for risk and confidence in financial markets is dropping as they adopt the motto, "In gold we trust, not banks." Another measure of dropping confidence or panic, call it which you will, is the yield on the 10 year treasury note. It has also looked like Iguaçu Falls lately, and has even fallen below its uptrend line to 2.619%. Bear in mind that yields (interest rates) fall as bonds rise, and bonds rise because there is more demand for the safety they offer. Sizeable shift like this rolls snake-eyes for stocks. Y'all enjoy your weekend! - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Doug Casey's Coming Super-Bubble | <b>Gold Prices</b> | Gold Investing <b>...</b> Posted: 21 Apr 2014 03:28 PM PDT  Apr 22, 2014 See why Doug Casey thinks truly explosive gains for junior mining stocks are not just possible, but probable in the not too distant future… Doug Casey's Coming Super-BubbleBy Louis James, Chief Metals & Mining Investment StrategistIn many of my conversations with legendary speculator Doug Casey since the crash of 2008, Doug has talked about a coming super-bubble. Everything Doug has studied about human nature, history, and economics—from Roman times right up to the present—has him absolutely convinced that the global economy is headed for high inflation, with a very real potential for hyperinflation in the US. Ben Bernanke's panicked deployment of squadrons of cash-laden choppers has been emulated around the world. The Bank of International Settlements estimates that global debt markets now exceed $100 trillion. The laws of economics—maybe even physics—say that this inflation, whenever it arrives, must have consequences… and that those consequences cannot be avoided forever. The easiest consequence to predict, and the one we're betting heavily on, is that the price of gold will move higher. Much higher. That move will in turn ignite a bubble in gold stocks and, as Doug likes to say, a super-bubble in junior gold stocks. Jeff Clark, editor of our BIG GOLD newsletter, recently illustrated what such a super-bubble can look like, citing figures from several historic bull markets. I hesitate to repeat any of his figures because the right junior stocks' gains when the market goes bubbly are, frankly, hard to believe. However, it is a fact that quite a few junior stocks achieved the much-vaunted 10-bagger status (1,000% gains) in previous bubbles, and some even returned 100-fold. Here's the essential reason why junior mining stocks are Doug's favorite speculations. Let's start at the beginning: Doug's mantra is that one should buy gold for prudence and gold stocks for profit. These are very different kinds of asset deployment. It's particularly important not to think of gold as an investment, but as wealth protection. It's the only highly liquid financial asset that is not simultaneously someone else's liability. Every ounce of gold you physically possess is value in solid form—there is no short to your long. Come hell or high water, it is value you can liquidate and use to secure your needs. That's why gold is for prudence. Gold stocks are for speculation because they offer leverage to gold. This is actually true of all mining stocks and, more broadly, of stocks in commodity-related companies; they all tend to magnify the price movements in the underlying commodity. But the phenomenon is especially strong in the highly volatile precious metals. Allow me to illustrate—and in an effort to avoid seeming overly promotional, I'll show how gold stocks' leverage works on the downside as well as the upside. Bad news first: here's a chart showing how gold retreated during October and November of 2008, the worst two months of that year's crash for mining stocks. Also shown are an index of gold juniors and our own portfolio performance. This was, of course, a terrific time to buy, resulting in spectacular gains over the next two years. Now the good news: here's a chart showing the performance of the same three things in January and February of this year, which saw a major rally in the gold sector.
Here's one more, with a particularly telling point to make. This is the stock price of ATAC Resources (ATC.V) over the same time period as the chart above. The point I want to draw your attention to is that the company had no major news during the time period shown. It's a Yukon gold play, buried deep under the famous snows of the Great White North, so there's no exploration under way, and there won't be until the snow melts weeks or months from now.
This third chart shows in one simple yet powerful way exactly why Doug loves buying these stocks when they're on sale and selling them when they go into bubble mode. ATAC essentially did nothing and still shot up over an order of magnitude more than gold. Note that while this third chart looks like the second, the scales are quite different. (ATAC, by the way, is part of my special report, 10-Bagger List for 2014, that details nine companies I believe could show 1,000% or more returns this year. Note that the report was written before the big move upward you see in the chart above.) It's worth emphasizing that ATAC's performance this year is just on a rebound from recent lows—imagine what a stock like this could do when Doug's super-bubble for gold stocks arrives. But what if it doesn't? Or worse—what if we already missed it? I remember a conversation with Doug back in 2011, when gold rose to within reach of $2,000 per ounce. Many mainstream analysts said gold was in a bubble. I told Doug I couldn't understand why anyone would listen to analysts who've called the gold trend wrong every year since the current bull cycle started. I remember Doug chuckling and saying: "Just wait and see—this is barely an overture." I am certain Doug is right. That's not because he's the guru, nor because I'm a nutty gold bug, but because no government in history has ever multiplied its currency base without sparking serious and often fatal inflation. That's a fact, not an opinion, backed by enough data to make me extremely confident in predicting what lies ahead for the US dollar, even if I can't say exactly when we'll reach the tipping point. Since that 2011 interim peak, as we all know painfully well, gold has backed off on par with the correction in the middle of the great 1970s gold bull market. But economic realities require that the market turn around and head for his long-predicted super-bubble in junior mining stocks before too long. That makes the correction the last, best time to build a substantial position in the stocks best positioned to profit from the coming bubble. And now Doug is saying that he believes the upturn is at hand. He expects a steadily rising market for a year or two, perhaps more, but not many more, culminating in a market mania for the record books. Our market does appear to have bottomed. It may take a while to go into its mania phase, but it's already heating up. No one is going to want to be short when this train leaves the station—and the conductor has blown the whistle. To find out what you could be missing if you don't invest in junior mining stocks right now, watch Casey Research's recent video event, Upturn Millionaires—How to Play the Turning Tides in the Precious Metals Market. With resource and investment experts Doug Casey, Frank Giustra, Rick Rule, Porter Stansberry, Ross Beaty, John Mauldin, Marin Katusa, and myself. Watch it here for free, or click here to find out more about my 10-Bagger List for 2014. The article Doug Casey's Coming Super-Bubble was originally published at caseyresearch.com. VN:F [1.9.22_1171] VN:F [1.9.22_1171] |
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