Gold price | Goldman: No reason to change prediction of 20% drop in <b>gold price</b> <b>...</b> |
- Goldman: No reason to change prediction of 20% drop in <b>gold price</b> <b>...</b>
- Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: The <b>Gold Price</b> Closed Higher at $1,303.10
- Ukraine escalation lifts <b>gold price</b> to 3-week high | MINING.com
- <b>Gold Prices</b> 2014: Do What Goldman Does, Not What It Says
| Goldman: No reason to change prediction of 20% drop in <b>gold price</b> <b>...</b> Posted: 14 Apr 2014 10:36 AM PDT The gold price continued its recent strong run on Monday, boosted by safe haven buying after clashes over the weekend in Ukraine put markets on edge. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery last traded at $1,326 an ounce, a near 4-week high and up 10.7% since the start of the year. The 2014 rally in the price of gold has not convinced most bears, and on Monday Goldman Sachs said it's sticking to its original forecast of gold at $1,050 an ounce by the end of the year. Bloomberg quotes chief gold analysts at the investment bank Jeffrey Currie, who last year called the yellow metal a "slam dunk sell", as saying a recovering US economy and rising interest rates are the main reasons gold will weaken. "It would require a significant sustained slowdown in U.S. growth for us to revisit our expectation for lower gold prices over the next two years," Currie wrote in the report, dated The median forecast for the fourth quarter 2014 of the nine gold analysts tracked business news wire Bloomberg is $1,165 an ounce and the two most accurate gold price forecasters in the group are even more bearish seeing declines similar to that of Goldman Sachs. Rising US bond yields and market rates makes gold less attractive as an asset because the metal is not income producing. Higher rates also boost the value of the dollar which usually move in the opposite direction of the gold price. Some bulls have made the case that gold can appreciate despite these factors, because the US Federal Reserve is likely to be purchasing additional assets (and hence adding stimulus) until late this year and it may still be several years before US monetary policy is normalized. In addition, other globally important central banks are still likely to ease monetary policy further, notably the Bank of Japan but probably also the ECB. While last year saw gold's worst performance in over three decades, the price of the precious metal is still up 60% from where it was before the Fed first introduced its monetary stimulus program in December 2008. Image of Jeffrey Currie from Youtube  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: The <b>Gold Price</b> Closed Higher at $1,303.10 Posted: 16 Apr 2014 05:21 PM PDT
Franklin wont be publishing commentary over Easter, he will return Tuesday. Y'all have a blessed Easter celebration! Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Ukraine escalation lifts <b>gold price</b> to 3-week high | MINING.com Posted: 14 Apr 2014 03:01 PM PDT
 The price of gold built on recent gains on Monday as safe-haven buyers returned to the market on growing fears of a ratcheting up of violence in Ukraine and the threat of a European "gas war". On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery in late afternoon trade exchanged hands for $1,327.50 an ounce, up $8.50 from Friday's close. Gold is now the highest in almost four weeks and is up nearly 11% since the start of the year. Gold was supported by investors seeking the relative safety of gold as a hard asset after news of renewed clashes between security forces and pro-Russian activists in the east of the country. The government in Kiev on Monday called for the deployment of United Nations peacekeeping troops as part of its "anti-terrorist" actions in ten cities where official buildings have been occupied by protestors demanding greater regional autonomy. Russia has demanded that Ukraine does nothing to inflame tensions and stepped up its propaganda war, although many in the West suspect that Moscow's strategy is to weaken Ukraine's new government to prevent the country from integrating with the EU. Russia is a major supplier of gas to Europe – 40% of it in the case of Germany – with a significant portion of it via pipelines that run through Ukraine. Last week Russia warned it may start cutting off supplies to Ukraine over unpaid bills of some $2 billion. European natural gas prices have been rising steadily since the crisis began, but analysts point out that the use of gas supplies in the stand-off may end up hurting Russia more in the long term as its European customers look elsewhere for supplies. The EU has been considering tougher economic sanctions against Russia but at a Luxembourg meeting on Monday foreign ministers did not impose any punitive measures on Moscow. UK oil major BP talked of repercussion if the relationship with the Kremlin should deteriorate further pointing to its 20% stake in state-owned oil company Rosneft. Inside Ukraine the economic crisis deepened on Monday with the country's central bank lifting benchmark interest rates by 3% to 9.5% to support the falling currency, the hryvnia, and fight inflation. The Ukraine central bank also warned that foreign exchange reserves have fallen to barely two months' import cover. Image is from US Army Europe: Paratrooper from 173rd Airborne Brigade during Rapid Trident military exercises over Ukraine in 2011. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| <b>Gold Prices</b> 2014: Do What Goldman Does, Not What It Says Posted: 14 Apr 2014 12:30 PM PDT Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) must really want to buy more gold; this week it repeated yet again its forecast for gold prices in 2014 to drop to $1,050 an ounce. That might sound contradictory at first, but not when it comes to Goldman. Jeffrey Currie, the investment bank's head of commodities research, has repeated his $1,050 target several times since last October, when he declared gold a "slam-dunk sell" along with other precious metals.
That Goldman has seen fit to repeat its $1,050 so frequently over the past six months smacks of frustration. While gold prices did briefly slip below $1,200 in December, the yellow metal is up about 17% since then. Gold prices were trading at about $1,327 on Monday afternoon - hardly the tumble Currie predicted last fall. Last month, as gold prices were touching their high of $1,382, Currie took the opportunity to remind the world that Goldman was still bearish. "It would require a significant, sustained slowdown in U.S. growth for us to revisit our expectation for lower U.S. gold prices over the next two years," Currie wrote in a research note. Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth disagrees. From where he sits, the gold selloff pretty much exhausted itself in January. "The largest physical gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE ARCA: GLD), sold off 42% of its metal between its record high in Dec. 2012 and Jan. 2014, or 564 tons of gold. That selling looks to have bottomed in mid-January and GLD holdings have started to grow again since then - a major trend reversal," Krauth said. While gold prices may not get back to $1,900 an ounce, neither are they likely to slump down to $1,000. Even if gold prices do slip back below $1,200, demand from central banks as well as Asia is likely to keep them from slipping to $1,100 or lower. So why is Goldman so insistent that gold prices are going to drop all the way to $1,050, and why should investors view the bank's forecasts with caution? To answer that, we need to look at Goldman's track record... Goldman and Gold Prices: A Shady HistoryLet's first look at some of Goldman's gold price forecasts over the past few years and how they panned out. For example, back in 2007, Goldman was bearish on gold, telling its clients to sell. In fact, Goldman declared selling gold in 2008 one of its Top 10 tips of the year. Of course, gold prices rose 12.2% in 2008 and another 23.4% in 2009. By November 2011, Goldman was actually bullish on gold prices - it raised its target to $1,930 an ounce about one month after gold prices had peaked. By May 2012, with gold prices below $1,600, Goldman adjusted its bullish target to $1,840 an ounce. Gold prices did rise slightly after that, but never made it to $1,800, and thereafter started a precipitous decline. By December 2012 - when gold prices were trading in the neighborhood of $1,700, Goldman revised its forecast to $1,800. Six months later gold prices were slipping toward $1,200. Goldman finally reversed course in February 2013, beginning its string of bearish forecasts that have continued to the present. That's actually good news for gold prices, as Goldman always seems to be late figuring out where gold is headed. Or is it? Does Goldman Manipulate Gold Prices?It doesn't quite make sense that a top-shelf investment bank like Goldman Sachs would be wrong so often about the direction of gold prices. But when you look at Goldman's own gold investing habits, a suspicious pattern emerges. Goldman is usually buying while it publicly advocates others to sell, and vice versa. It knows many investors will follow its "advice," which in turn helps Goldman to buy gold at lower prices and sell gold at higher prices. Sure enough, as Goldman was declaring gold a sell last year, it was scooping up the yellow metal like crazy. In the second quarter alone it bought 3.7 million shares of the GLD ETF - valued at about $500 million. If you've ever suspected gold prices are being manipulated, you're not alone - and you're right, they are," said Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald. "Bigger firms like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, PIMCO, or any of a dozen other behemoths simply release a 'research report' that is interpreted as gospel by the mainstream media and swallowed hook, line, and sinker by millions of unsuspecting investors as a reason to buy or sell." Knowing this is going on is vital for retail investors, not just so they don't get snookered by the Wall Street heavyweights, but so they can adjust their own strategy accordingly. Fitz-Gerald said dollar-cost averaging - buying a set dollar amount of an investment at regular intervals - is one tool people can use to avoid becoming a Wall Street patsy. "Dollar-cost averaging forces you to buy more when the price is low and less when the price is high," Fitz-Gerald said. "Maybe you can't compete with the big banks, but you can beat them at their own game." Do you believe the reports on precious metals and stocks issued by the Big Banks are valid or simply tools to manipulate the markets? Tell us on Twitter @moneymorning or Facebook. Playing games with recommendations isn't the only way that Wall Street squeezes profits out of other investors. They also have unfair advantages, like "dark pools" and high-frequency trading. Every investors needs to be educated about what's really going on... Related Articles:
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