Gold price | The <b>Gold Price</b> Eased Off $6.10 Today Closing at $1284.40 |
- The <b>Gold Price</b> Eased Off $6.10 Today Closing at $1284.40
- Speculations Reversed - <b>Gold Price</b> Stealth Rally 2014 :: The Market <b>...</b>
- Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: The <b>Gold Price</b> Added $10.90 Closing at <b>...</b>
- FX Markets: The Key to Predicting Moves in the <b>Gold Price</b>
- <b>Gold price</b> slides to 7-week low as hedge funds drop 1.8m ounces <b>...</b>
| The <b>Gold Price</b> Eased Off $6.10 Today Closing at $1284.40 Posted: 03 Apr 2014 04:19 PM PDT
The GOLD PRICE eased off $6.10 (0.5%) today to close Comex at $1,284.40. The SILVER PRICE backed up 24.5 cents (1.22%) to 1978.6c. About the time of that European announcement, I reckon, about 10:a.m. anyway, silver broke down and hit the day's low at 1966c. That was a V-bottom -- somebody was waiting to buy down there. Bounced right back above 1975-1980c, but went no further. Erased Wednesday's gains and left us where we began. Not quite so with the GOLD PRICE. Gold's action today left a slightly higher low ($1,281.90) than Tuesday's ($1,277.40). Doesn't sound like much, but catches your eye on a five day chart. Line is plainly drawn: the gold price must clear $1,295. A drop below $1,277 would gainsay my interpretation that gold has either (1) seen its low for this move or (2) seen at least an interim low. We'll know tomorrow what happens, unless that lying government report skews everything. I often tilt my head in bewildered wonder at the factors and events that drive markets nowadays. Tomorrow a yankee government employment report will be issued in which they will lie shamelessly about the jobless numbers. Nobody sane believes these numbers, and the government will revise them in six weeks or so to prove they were lying in the first place. NOTWITHSTANDING those trumped up job numbers will drive markets tomorrow, as if they actually meant something, or as if the plans of a well-run, efficient business could be cast into disarray by one lying government report. It's getting so I believe everybody but y'all and me are nuts, and I ain't too sure about y'all. Didn't anything startling happen in markets today. Stocks backed off, holding their breath for that precious priceless prevarication due tomorrow. Dollar rose because the ECB mumbled some oracle, and silver and gold cringed because the scrofulous dollar rose (probably). Dow closed 16,572.55, down a miniature 0.45. S&P500 lost 2.15 (0.11%) to 1,888.77. Both broke out yesterday upside, MACD for both gave a buy signal, but if you look at that declining volume over the last year while all these new all-time highs have been made, you might have to scratch your head and wonder if stocks ain't running out of gas. The little jiggle the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver jiggled today from stocks flattening and silver and gold dropping, frankly, just ain't worth talking about. Nothing changed. The criminals running the European Central Bank today pledged to use "unconventional measures" to -- get this, write it down, mark this -- battle "low inflation." O, shucks! We're not picking the public's pockets fast enough, so let's crank that inflation up to melt their savings and capital, and help the banks. ECB implied it would print new waves of money, but kept interest rates near zero. On that news the US dollar index (killers of hope, gobbler of savings) rose a less than spectacular 23 basis points or 0.3%. I will concede that takes it above the 05 DMA 80.31 and points it toward the 200 DMA at 80.99, and throws a leg over 80.50 lateral resistance, so the dollar should rise more. The scabby euro, on the other hand, sank away from resistance, confirmed its down trend with another lower high and lower low, and broke below its 50 DMA ($1.3734). Closed down 0.35% at $1.3719. Tugging at the reins like it wants to drop to $1.3500. And the Japanese yen --Is there any reason to talk about that? Dropped 0.04% to 96.24 cents/Y100, still a-fainting. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Speculations Reversed - <b>Gold Price</b> Stealth Rally 2014 :: The Market <b>...</b> Posted: 02 Apr 2014 12:10 PM PDT By: Peter_Schiff
In spite of this overwhelming negative sentiment, gold is experiencing a stealth rally as one of the best performing assets of the year. Let's look at some important metrics of the most under-valued sector in this market. Speculations Reversed So many investors want to believe that last year was the death knell for the yellow metal that they've stop paying attention to the technical metrics responsible for driving the price down. These metrics have already started to reverse. Last year, technical speculators - and everyday investors trading behind them - influenced gold's price more than anything else. Notably, 2013 was the first year since their creation in 2003 that gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced a net outflow of their gold holdings. This played a pivotal role in driving down both the gold price and investor expectations for the yellow metal. Gold ETFs sold off their holdings by a whopping 881 metric tons last year. GLD, the largest fund, sold 550 of those tonnes on its own. This was influenced by, and then compounded, the effects of extremely bearish gold futures speculators, whose large net-short positions were responsible for some landmark drops in the gold price throughout the year. As is typical with markets, negative sentiment became a self-fulfilling prophecy. For the previous decade up until last year, physical gold demand had driven the gold bull market. However, ETFs have over this time accumulated a greater and greater share of the market. Thus, last year's sudden ETF sell-off was enough to drive total global gold demand down 15% year-over-year. Even 28% growth in bar and coin demand - resulting in record-breaking total demand - couldn't counter the market's bearish turn. But ETFs are getting back in the game. GLD started adding to its holdings again in February, the first increase since December 2012. And by mid-March, COMEX gold futures contracts had the most net-long positions since November 2012. Gold Versus Equities Prices are up in every area of the gold sector. GLD and COMEX futures are both up more than 6% this year. GDX, one of the broadest gold-mining ETFs, is up more than 12%. Even with a sell-off in the last week of March, physical gold was up almost 8% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the general stock market is barely performing at all. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are up barely 2% YTD, while the Dow is down. Most importantly, when measured in terms of gold, the Dow has actually started to drop significantly. At the end of March, the Dow was about 12.5 times the gold price. This is already a 9% decline since December. For the majority of the last 100 years, the Dow has traded far below this level.
Overpriced and Under-Earning Anyone who really buys the story of economic recovery is likely riding a wave of irrational exuberance after a year in which the major indices hit record high after record high. They don't express the slightest concern that the stock market is already in dangerous bubble territory. However, one of the most important metrics of stock market valuation completely contradicts this. The Shiller Price/Earnings Ratio (Shiller P/E) is well-respected for helping analysts like me identify one of the most over-valued markets in history - the dot-com bubble. This metric gauges the return on investment for someone buying into the broader stock market. A higher ratio indicates investors are paying more for shares of companies that are earning less; therefore, they are receiving less value. At the end of March, the Shiller P/E stood at 25.60 - almost 55% higher than the historical average of 16.5. As you can see in the chart below, the only previous times the ratio has breached 25 were during the 1929 stock craze, the dot-com bubble, and just before the '08 financial crash. I would not want to be anywhere near an investment with such poor yield.  Don't Look Back Investors often make the mistake of investing in the last trade, the same way that governments always fight the last war. After a year in which stocks brought in about a 30% return while gold was pummeled, nobody wants to be the first one to jump back into hard assets. But fortunes are often made by ignoring the popular trend and buying underpriced assets when nobody else sees their value. Sometimes this is a risky maneuver, but in the case of today's gold market, it's as close as we can get to a sure thing. It's hard to predict what will trigger the next collapse of stocks, but gold is already on the road to new highs. Janet Yellen is gearing up to unleash a new torrent of freshly printed dollars onto global markets. I'd recommend building your ark well in advance. Peter Schiff is Chairman of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, a gold and silver dealer selling reputable, well-known bullion coins and bars at competitive prices. Click here for a free subscription to Peter Schiff's Gold Letter, a monthly newsletter featuring the latest gold and silver market analysis from Peter Schiff, Casey Research, and other leading experts. And now, investors can stay up-to-the-minute on precious metals news and Peter's latest thoughts by visiting Peter Schiff's Official Gold Blog. © 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: The <b>Gold Price</b> Added $10.90 Closing at <b>...</b> Posted: 02 Apr 2014 09:27 PM PDT
The GOLD PRICE added $10.90 (0.85%) & Silver jumped up 36.2 cents (1.8%) to 2003.1c. Ratio dropped from 65.057 yesterday to 64.425. Look more closely. Silver stayed under 1990c until 9:00, when somebody big said, "Buy!" Vaulted to 2015c, then stayed flat most of the rest of the day, but trailed off at the end. The SILVER PRICE is leading this move up, and that's a good sign. Still, silver & gold prices need to confirm higher goals by other indicators. A close above $1,305 tomorrow wouldn't hurt. If I wanted to watch a wholly bogus stock, I would watch Facebook (FB), maker of nothing, producer of nothing, founded on nothing, light as air, hitchhiker on the ephemeral & unreal. Like Apple (AAPL) before it Facebook seems to have fallen from grace lately. After reaching 72.59 in early March, it tanked to 57.98 (down 20%) and fell below its 20 DMA, 50 DMA, and uptrend line. It is trying now to climb back through that line. A stock this bogus in a market this bogus is bound to wind up a dead canary on the bird cage floor before the mine fills with poison gas. Mercy, it may have already done that. But then, how much does a nacheral born durned fool from Tennessee know next to them Wall Street smarties who've been picking y'all's pockets so efficiently for so many years? 'Twas a lackluster day for stocks with a zootz toward the end that took the S&P500 to a new high. Dow rose 40.39 (0.24%) to 16,573 while the S&P500 climbed/clumb 5.38 (0.29%) to 1,890.90. Mmmmm. Today might have marked the end of the upward correction in the Dow in Metals. Dow in gold dropped 0.59% to 12.84 oz (G$265.43 gold dollars), just shy of a 61.8% correction. Full stochastics are rolling over earthward. Dow in Silver has made (as of yesterday) an 86.8% correction of the December - February drop. Closed today LOWER BY 1.31% at 826.58 oz (S$1,068.70 silver dollars). BE WARNED: I am anticipating here. No full evidence of a downturn, yet it seizeth my eye that the day stocks hit new highs, the indicators turn down. Well, well, the US dollar, destroyer of nations & middle class capital, turned around today, rose 15 basis points (0.19%) and closed at 80.39. It really needs to climb above 80.50 to turn up, but this at least lodged it above the 50 DMA (80.32). Might rise after all. Euro passed out again, down 0.2% to $1.3764, dashing whatever fragile hopes it had yesterday raised from the dead. Yen has fled in a full scale rout, down another 0.2% today to 96.28 cents per 100 yen. That closes below the last low at 96.38 cents. US Ten Year Treasury note yield also jumped a meaty 1.6% today to 2.803%. T-note yield has been congested and skrunched up in a narrow range, but after proving in February that it was indeed headed higher (it bounced off a lower range boundary line), it gapped up today. Must close above 3.036 to attract attention, but it will. Copper has fought its way back up to $3.05, but requires a close higher than $3.25 to prove it does not intend to visit the earth's core. On 2 April 1792 the US Congress passed the Coinage Act which made the dollar of silver (371.25 grains fine silver or 0.7734 troy ounce fine silver) the standard coin, with smaller halves, quarters, dismes [sic] & half-dismes. The act also provided for gold coins or "eagles" not denominated in but valued in dollars. The eagle was "valued at" $10 and contained 247-1/2 or 0.5156 troy ounce fine gold. There were also half and quarter eagles. Dr. Edwin Vieira describes this system as "symmetalism" because the system allowed for using both metals and adjusting only one coin for changes in the world gold/silver ratio. Those changes were made in the 1830s, but without cheating anyone. That was a right different government in those days. When the coin lost its integrity, so did the nation. On 2 April 1914 the US Federal Reserve Board announced plans to divide the country into 12 districts, symbolic, no doubt, of its conquest. When the coin lost its integrity and independence, so did the nation. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| FX Markets: The Key to Predicting Moves in the <b>Gold Price</b> Posted: 02 Apr 2014 09:50 AM PDT In 1914 gold was money. Money wasn't debt or credit back then. It was simply gold, and banks created credit on top of their gold reserve base. They couldn't go crazy in the credit creation process, because there was only so much gold in the world and its supply grew at around 2%. Plus, gold (not debt) was a form of international payment, so once again debt growth didn't get too excessive. If you ran a trade deficit, your creditors demanded payment in gold to settle the debt. If you ran out of gold, interest rates would rise (to discourage consumption and encourage saving) and the trade deficit would slowly swing back to surplus. That's roughly how the gold standard kept things in balance. But in 1922 that all changed… It set the world on a path to where we are today. Where money and debt and credit are all interchangeable terms. Where debt must keep rising to keep the system going. And where it will increase to such a point that it will collapse back on itself. Most people think the world's monetary architecture changed for the worse in 1971 when Nixon severed the US dollar's link to gold. But actually, a little known event in 1922 set the global monetary system on its present day course. Meanwhile, we've sneaked a look at Marc Faber's presentation at this year's World War D conference in Melbourne, Australia, and his basic premise is that the system is now on its last legs. It should be an interesting few days. On the topic of money, the Wall Street Journal reports that profit growth slowed at China's big banks in 2013. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China grew profits by 10%, the slowest pace since listing in 2006. Bank of China's profits grew 12%, the second slowest pace of growth since listing in 2006. And Agricultural Bank of China posted a robust 15% profit rise, but was still the slowest pace of growth since listing in 2010. China's big banks make state sanctioned profits. Although the rules have loosened a little recently, for years financial repression saw the big banks make a chunky 3% spread on lending. That is, depositors received 3% interest while borrowing costs were 6%. The difference was the banks' to keep. As the chart below shows, since 2009 bank loan growth in China has been huge. Although it's slowing marginally, it's still running at a healthy clip of just under 15%. Most of the recent slowdown has come from the 'shadow banking' sector, which is included in the 'total credit' growth rate in the chart. But the problem for China's banks is that some of the loans they made during the boom are coming back to bite them… Bad loans are on the rise and as the credit bubble deflates, banks will have to write off past profits. Expect more of that in the next few years. The market certainly does, which is why China's banks look 'cheap'.  So, whatever happened to good old 'money'? Gold, once the anchor of the global financial system, is now nothing more than flotsam in a sea of debt. Last night it fell another few dollars, and is now about $100 dollars an ounce lower than it was 10 days ago. So much for gold's recovery! Gold is a mere shadow of its former self. Trading in the gold market is now dominated by paper forms (derivatives) of the metal. Physical trading makes up a very small portion of the overall market. When a financial system goes from sound to unsound, it creates more claims on real assets than there are real assets in existence. So the system creates paper assets to absorb the constant supply of new money/credit/debt. Hence the explosion of the derivatives market in recent decades. Most investors don't own real assets; they simply have 'exposure' to them via the derivatives market. Or in the case of gold, which also forms the role of alternative currency, the derivatives (or paper forms of it) extend to the currency markets. Back in the 1970s gold received a currency symbol, XAU, which made it available for trading in the foreign exchange (FX) markets. FX markets are huge. They are the largest markets in the world by volume. Back in 2011 the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) released a trading survey showing that daily clearing in the gold market was the equivalent of 5,400 tonnes, or around US$240 billion at the time. Last year, we sent the LBMA an email asking whether gold trading as an FX currency was behind the huge volumes. We recently got the following response:
So most of the 'gold' trading that takes place occurs in the FX markets and has nothing to do with physical gold. No wonder it's turned into a volatile beast. The proper price signals that poor old physical gold used to give off, warning about system excesses, have been well and truly muffled. Regards, Greg Canavan Ed. Note: In Greg's presentation at the World War D conference in Melbourne, Australia, he explains in detail why the system cannot continue to muffle gold for much longer, what that means for future gold prices, and how investors can use it to their advantage. And even if you couldn't make the trek to Melbourne, The Daily Reckoning's managing editor was live on the scene, so readers still get a front row seat to the whole thing. To gain access to this and other great benefits, sign up for the FREE Daily Reckoning email edition, right here. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| <b>Gold price</b> slides to 7-week low as hedge funds drop 1.8m ounces <b>...</b> Posted: 31 Mar 2014 03:12 PM PDT Softness in the price of gold continued on Monday bringing the retreat in the metal from its 2014 highs to more than $90 an ounce as speculators cut bullish positions and gold-backed ETF investors scale back holdings. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery in late afternoon dealings traded at $1,284.50 an ounce, down nearly $10 or 0.8% from Friday's close and at the day's low. The yellow metal has taken a hammering over the past two weeks of trading – gold is down from a 2014 high above $1,380 reached a fortnight ago to levels last seen February 11. Gold is still up 7% since the start of the year, but the positive momentum seems to be grinding to a halt. Speculators in gold futures and options reversed course last week with large investors cutting back on long positions – bets that the price will go up – in the week to March 25 according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. On a net basis hedge funds now hold 120,042 lots or 12 million ounces in net longs. That compares to 13.8 million ounces the previous week which was the most bullish positioning taken in more than a year. Last week also saw a second week of reductions of holdings in exchange traded funds backed by physical gold. Latest data show in the week to 28 March global gold ETF holdings declined by 0.4 tonnes taking total bullion allocated to investors down to 1,765.8 tonnes. Bullion held in gold ETFs are still on track for a net gain of more than 30 tonnes during the first quarter, however. Gold bullion holdings in global ETFs hit a record 2,632 tonnes or 93 million ounces in December 2012, but last year saw net redemptions of 800 tonnes. |
So far, 2014 has been a paradoxical year for gold. Many investors aren't even aware that it has rallied almost 8%. On the rare occasion that the financial media mentions the yellow metal, it is only in the context of comparing the recent rise to last year's decline.
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