Gold Daily April 2, 2014 |
| Posted: 01 Apr 2014 07:52 PM PDT  Long Term ~ Neutral - Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Medium Term ~ Neutral – Trend is now neutral after one year in bearish mode. A close above 1420-1480 needed for next significant price point--but a March close above 1322 GETS ONE MORE NOTCH to bullish. Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– A close above 1355 needed for more bullish action. We are at the end of the short term cycle window. A close below 1262-1272 puts us bearish. Short Term ~ Bearish – The Next short term cycle window closes Wednesday night. WE SHOULD BE NEAR THE LOW HERE time and price wise but the weakness in gold is very troublesome. A close above 1308 would put us neutral. Initial Resistance 1285-1295 2nd tier 1304-1309 Initial Support 1272-1279 and 2nd tier 1257-1265 In the last update resistance was listed at 1293-1303 on the last update and the high was 1289. Support was listed at 1272-1282 and the low was 1277. Gold drops as market digests U.S. factory data Chicago (Apr 1) Gold prices fell on Tuesday after markets digested U.S. factory data and determined the numbers were positive and depicted an economy that continues to mend and in need of less Federal Reserve stimulus for support. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery was down 0.31% at $1,279.80, off a session high of $1,288.40 and up from a low of $1,278.30 The June contract settled down 0.81% at $1,283.80 on Monday. The Institute for Supply Management reported earlier that its manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 53.7 in March from 53.2 in February, missing market expectations for a 54.0 reading. The report showed that employment growth slowed, with the employment index falling to 51.1 from 52.3, the lowest level since June 2013. The numbers weakened the dollar earlier, as investors avoided the greenback ahead of Friday's March jobs report, which many feel may depict and improving albeit sluggish U.S. economy, one still in need of Federal Reserve stimulus support. The Fed is currently purchasing $55 billion in bonds a month to spur recovery, a monetary policy tool known as quantitative easing that suppresses interest rates to prop up the economy, weakening the dollar as a side effect, thus bolstering gold's appeal as a hedge. Upon digesting the data, however, investors viewed the PMI numbers as positive, as March marked the second month of gains for the indicator, which weakened gold by keeping expectations firm that stimulus programs that have supported gold for years are on their way out. Gold Hourly Chart Gold futures are likely to find support at 1272-1277 and/or 1265, the low from Feb. 10 and the 61% retracement level of the 2014 rally. First weekly resistance is at $1,299.10, Monday's high and then 1306-1312. The daily resistance for Wednesday is 1291-1294. The trend remains down on the short term cycle but a low is due as the window closes on Wednesday and odds do favor we begin a bounce either today or Thursday. However it is not a good thing that gold has been unable to close above the mini blue moving average even once on this sell off. If we lose the gold channel line the next support is 1262-1272 and a close below either will not be good. The 61% retrace is at 1265 and it is not out of the question yet to go visit that area. The key now is we must get back above 1290 at a minimum and in quick time just to have a chance to quell this downtrend.  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