8 April 2014 - 交易员关注美国经济及俄罗斯局势如何影响黄金走势 |
| 8 April 2014 - 交易员关注美国经济及俄罗斯局势如何影响黄金走势 Posted: 09 Apr 2014 02:39 AM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-04-08/163718236.html 2014年04月08日07:39 来源：理财18 发布时间：2014年4月4日下午3：10美国东部时间 本周黄金交易员密切留意美国经济数据，以及俄罗斯与乌克兰危机的最新发展，皆因两者均决定本周的贵金属走势。此外，交易员同样密切留意徘徊在移动均线上下方的几个价位。 上周五6月Comex期金价收于每盎司$1,303.5，日内上涨$18.39，一周上涨$9.2.5月期银价则收于$19.946，日内上涨14.1美分，一周上涨15.6美分。 上周五黄金在海外交易时段上涨。在美国就业报告公布之后，金价在北美交易时段进一步上涨。美国政府公布的报告显示，3月份美国非农就业人数上升19.2万，略低于市场预期的19.5万至20万。上两个月的就业人数调整上升3.7万，而失业率则维持6.7%，略高于市场预期的6.6%。 Wlash Trading商业对冲主管Sean Lusk表示数据出炉后，市场迅速出现沽空回补及新买盘。尽管目前的数据并不弱，但交易员预计的是表现更好的数据。 Eureka Miner市场报告的作者兼编辑Richard Baker指出就业报告位市场带来影响。上月达19.2万的就业人数增长只是稍逊于市场预期，则支持了美联储的鸽派阵营及黄金价格，意味着支持了美联储继续推行货币宽松政策。不过由于3月份就业数据距离市场预期不远，加上前两个月的就业数据获得上调，标普500指数在回落前曾在开盘时触及历史新高，皆因美国经济录得缓慢但平稳的增长。 Baker表示："随着市场对美联储收紧货币政策的忧虑减低，加上乌克兰地缘政治局势一触即发，两大因素都进一步支持黄金。我认为本周黄金价格将会上涨，可能徘徊在技术阻力位每盎司$1,320。" 于金拓（Kitco）新闻的《黄金调查》中，本周18个受访者中有11个预测金价上涨，5个预测金价下跌，而2个预期金价仅稍为横行。这些市场受访者包括黄金交易商，投资银行，期货商人，资金管理人和市场走势分析员。 兴业银行(601166,股吧)贵金属分析师Robin Bhar表示交易员将会密切留意美国经济的发展，说道："我认为美国经济复苏重返轨道，皆因近期做好的数据似乎已经确认了。"交易员将会密切留意数据将会如何影响美元及国债利率，而黄金走势则与上述两者反道而行。 本周美国公布的数据不多，市场主要关注的便是美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）将于周三公布3月18日至19日的会议纪要。 FOMC公布会议纪要之后，市场接着公布美国每周申领失业援助人数报告。周四美国政府公布的每月预算收支平衡，周五市场则公布生产物价指数、密歇根大学及汤森路透的消费者信心指数。 金拓贵金属公司全球交易主管Peter Hug表示他会密切留意各个主要技术图表价位，不过经济增长及俄罗斯乌克兰局势发展两大因素可能导致黄金有所突破。 Hug在访问中指出6月黄金期货价格于午盘突破$1,302，这价格突破可能会为市场带来买兴。早前市场先后两次从$1,278反弹上扬之后，$1,278左右形成了下行支持位。 经济看似日渐复苏，FOMC可能继续缩减购债规模，即量化宽松政策。Hug表示："资金好像从欧元市场流向美元，我认为黄金可能会下跌而非上行。"然而，他指出俄罗斯吞并克里米亚之后，即使俄罗斯宣称不会再入侵任何土地，西方国家及俄罗斯陷入的地缘政治危机较1980年左右的更为严重。若然局势进一步升级，我认为投资者将会涌入避险市场，这则有利于黄金。 另一利好黄金的因素便是，若然美国股市在近期的升幅中获过多投资，一旦股市下挫，投资资金可能重组，便可能从股市流出，流入商品市场，当中包括黄金。 来源：Kitco金拓中文网 信息来源：卡尔森 |
| 8 April 2014 - 3 Reasons Putin Is Bullish on Gold Posted: 09 Apr 2014 02:37 AM PDT From:http://www.thestreet.com/story/12631035/1/3-reasons-putin-is-bullish-on-gold.html BY Jonathan Yates| 04/07/14 - 02:18 PM EDT NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Before a recent pullback, gold was up double digits for 2014. Much of that can be attributed to the turmoil in Crimea and the Ukraine courtesy of Russian President Vladimir Putin. There are three reasons why Putin should be bullish for the price of gold well in the future. 1. Investors traditionally turn to gold when there is a crisis in the world. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) soared from around $115 in mid-December to nearly $135 in mid-March. Stocks in the sector such as Goldcorp (GG_) and Barrick Gold (ABX_) surged, too. While there never was a chance that the U.S. would go to war with Russia over Crimea, gold assets still soared. What makes the future bullish for gold here is that after the anemic American response, Putin is now emboldened to move forcefully again. 2. The American response diminished the appeal of U.S. dollar holdings to foreign investors. Many of the largest owners of Treasury bonds and other greenback assets are potential adversaries. China is the most obvious. So were the Russians. By the White House freezing some assets, foreign investors holding U.S. dollars responded by selling out their positions as a precaution. That could keep others from buying in the future. With fewer buyers, the greenback will decline in value. 3. The U.S. appears weak in international relations. Legendary investor Jim Rogers once stated that a weak currency is the sign of a weak economy, which is the sign of a weak government. Washington Post columnist Charles Krauthammer, in a recent column entitled "Obama v. Putin: The Mismatch," likened Obama's approach to statesmanship to that of a beauty contestant "...being asked to name her fondest wish." Secretary of State John Kerry after another failed effort in the Middle East admitted that American foreign policy had received a "reality check." Those and more do not reassure investors that there is strong U.S. leadership. Underscoring these factors is still a weak American economy. The U.S. government budget deficit in fiscal year 2013 was $680 billion. The Federal Reserve, through its quantitative easing program, is buying Treasuries and other securities at a rate of $55 billion monthly. From this, the Fed is basically financing the American budget deficit as no other buyers, foreign or domestic, can be found to buy in at such low interest rates. Without the Fed buying such massive amounts of Treasuries, U.S. interest rates would be much higher. Investors certainly realize that would further weaken the recovery from The Great Recession. This is demonstrated by their not buying U.S. government debt. It is also seen in in the rising share prices of Barrick Gold, Goldcorp, and SPDR Gold Shares. That, along with the uncertainty of Putin's next step will up the price of gold. At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. Source:http://www.thestreet.com/story/12631035/1/3-reasons-putin-is-bullish-on-gold.html |
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