16 April 2014 - China Gold Demand Rising 25% by 2017 as Buyers Get Wealthier |
- 16 April 2014 - China Gold Demand Rising 25% by 2017 as Buyers Get Wealthier
- 16 April 2014 - 未来黄金市场将继续聚焦中国
- 16 April 2014 - Gold bear takes on bug: 'You’re miles off base'
- 15 April 2014 - 三大利好推升金价走高 短期有望突破1330
- 15 April 2014 - A Gold Obsession Pays Dividends For Indian Women
| 16 April 2014 - China Gold Demand Rising 25% by 2017 as Buyers Get Wealthier Posted: 16 Apr 2014 03:38 AM PDT By Nicholas Larkin Apr 15 Gold demand in China, which overtook India as the largest user last year, will rise about 25 percent in the next four years as an increasing population gets wealthier, according to the World Gold Council. Consumer demand will expand to at least 1,350 metric tons by 2017, the London-based council said in a report today. Growth may be limited this year after 2013's price decline spurred consumers to do more buying last year, it said. China accounted for about 28 percent of global usage last year, the council estimated in February. Buying accelerated last year as prices slumped 28 percent, the most since 1981, and the nation became the top buyer in place of India, where import restrictions curbed demand. China's economy will expand 7.4 percent this year, economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimate. While that's set to be the least since 1990, it's still more than double expected growth in the U.S. "Whilst China faces important challenges as it seeks to sustain economic growth and liberalize its financial system, growth in personal incomes and the public's pool of savings should support a medium-term increase in the demand for gold, in both jewelry and investment," Albert Cheng, Far East managing director at the council, said in a statement accompanying the report. Gold for immediate delivery climbed 10 percent to $1,320.33 an ounce this year by 6:39 a.m. in London, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal slipped to an almost three-year low of $1,180.57 in June, extending a drop from a record $1,921.17 set in September 2011. Gold Financing By the end of 2013, about 1,000 tons of gold may be tied up in financing deals in China, in which commodities including copper are used as collateral for credit amid restrictions on lending, said the council. Most of the metal locked up in such deals have been built up since 2011, it said. China has 170 cities that have at least 1 million inhabitants each, and the middle class will expand more than 60 percent to 500 million in the next six years, according to the report. About $7.5 trillion is held in bank accounts and household allocations to gold remain "small" at about $300 billion, it said. The nation's consumer gold demand increased 32 percent to 1,065.8 tons last year, the producer-funded organization said in February. Jewelry purchases of almost 669 tons accounted for 30 percent of the global total and will reach 780 tons by 2017, according to today's report. Annual bar and coin demand could near 500 tons by 2017, 25 percent above last year's record. Bullion Reserves China's gold reserves total 1,054.1 tons, making it the fifth-biggest holder by country, according to the council. Bullion accounts for about 1.2 percent of its total reserves, compared with about 70 percent for the U.S. and Germany, the largest owners. China's government lifted a ban on bullion trading and opened the Shanghai Gold Exchange in 2002. Huaan Asset Management Co. and Guotai Asset Management Co. won state approval last year to list the country's first gold-backed exchange-traded products. "We have witnessed astonishing increases in demand for gold from consumers across the country," Cheng said. "The cultural affinity for gold runs deep in China and when this is combined with an increasingly affluent population and a supportive government, there is significant room for the market to grow even further." |
| Posted: 16 Apr 2014 03:35 AM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-04-16/163969865.html 2014年04月16日07:09 来源：金融时报 作者：记者 袁蓉君 众所周知，中国已成为世界上最重要的实物黄金市场，上海黄金交易所及上海期货交易所也确立了自己的区域领导以及全球黄金交易系统中主要参与者的牢固地位。市场上充斥着中国官方可能购买黄金的言论。那么，黄金市场以中国为中心的现象会否一直继续下去？对此，4月15日世界黄金协会发布的一份调研报告作出了肯定回答，称中国黄金市场的发展是稳固、持续和长期的。即使偶有挫折，中国庞大的人口和持续快速的经济增长以及更重要的其根深蒂固的黄金文化，将确保在未来许多年里黄金市场继续聚焦中国。报告预计2017年中国个人领域每年对黄金的需求将从目前的1132公吨提升至1350公吨甚至更多。 这份题为《中国黄金市场：进展与前景》的报告是世界黄金协会委托贵金属见解有限公司（以下简称PMI）进行调研后所作，旨在对中期内（2014－2017年）中国黄金需求进行展望。报告检视了自上世纪90年代后期市场放开以来，驱动中国成长为全球最大黄金生产及消费国的各项因素。报告也强调了在需求增长已如此迅猛而经济在短期内暂时放缓的大背景下，未来四年市场仍将继续扩张的缘由。 "继中国黄金市场于上世纪90年代后期放开后，政府随后于2004年允许本地商业银行提供各类金条产品。自此，我们看到了全国各地的消费者对黄金需求的惊人增长。自古以来，黄金文化根植于中华文明，得益于富裕消费者群体的增长与来自政府的支持，未来黄金市场仍颇具巨幅增长空间。全球黄金生态体系中心已然位于中国。"世界黄金协会远东区董事总经理郑良豪如是表示。 根据上述报告，继2013年黄金需求创下历史新高并成为全球最大黄金市场之后，中国2014年的需求将有可能出现盘整，而在之后的几年将有望出现持续增长。"2013年价格突然下跌意味着中国一些消费者已在2013年大量购买珠宝和金条，这可能会限制2014年的需求增长。交易的扩张也可能放缓，特别是在额外的制造能力方面。然而，较低的国内金价应该能够支持消费者的购买，特别是24克拉珠宝。"报告如是说。 报告预计，受中产阶层迅速崛起、国民实际收入不断增加、私人储蓄庞大以及城镇化快速发展等因素推动，中期内中国实物黄金需求很可能会进一步增长。 根据这份报告，未来六年，中国新增中产阶层人口将达2亿，增幅超过60%，而中产阶层人口总数将达到5亿。这些拥有更多可支配收入但面临有限投资选择的中产阶层，将会继续保持对黄金投资的需求。同时，中国巨大的私人储蓄使消费者有能力增加黄金购买。调研发现，在中国家庭银行账户共约7.5万亿美元的储蓄中，只有约3000亿美元被用于购买黄金，该比例相对较低。另外，中国针对黄金的消费者信心十分坚定，80%的受访消费者表示计划在未来的12个月中维持或增加对24克拉金饰的购买。 正因为中国人传统上对黄金的热爱以及消费者对价格前景的乐观展望，报告预计，所有来源的私营部门需求到2017年将攀升到至少1350公吨。 当然，报告承认上述预测存在两大风险。一是中国在从投资和出口拉动的增长模式转为更加平衡的模式过程中面临着重大挑战；二是金融部门的自由化进程可能会降低黄金的投资吸引力。但是，报告也指出，尽管GDP增长率可能会有所下降，但私人消费占经济的比重预计将会上升，这将利好黄金消费。对于大多数人来说，占珠宝需求绝大部分的"纯金"物品将继续成为婚礼、节日等送礼场合必不可少的购买物件。而且，中国的金融体系改革将是渐进的，资本管制不太会在2017年之前取消，且中国投资者的黄金持有量（2013年9月底总值约770亿美元）与其银行存款、股票、房地产和其他资产相比价值非常小。 |
| 16 April 2014 - Gold bear takes on bug: 'You’re miles off base' Posted: 15 Apr 2014 07:55 PM PDT From:http://www.cnbc.com/id/101586205 Alex Rosenberg | @CNBCAlex Gold suffered its worst day of the year on Tuesday, as bullion fell 2 percent. And when it comes to where gold is going next, Peter Schiff and Paul Krake have completely opposite perspectives. Krake, of View from the Peak, has a target on gold of $1,000, roughly $300 below current levels. But Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, says gold is heading above $5,000. Schiff's bullish case is premised on the idea that central bank actions will create inflation, which will lead to much higher gold prices. "Central banks are creating too much money, there's too much inflation, interest rates are too low, and so I want to store my purchasing power in something that central banks can't print," Schiff said on Tuesday's episode of "Futures Now." "I think we're headed much higher because they are not going to stop the presses. They are going to run them into overdrive." One obvious problem with this thesis is that the Federal Reserve has been reducing, not increasing, the size of its bond-buying program. But Schiff says that quantitative easing will never end. "If the Fed continues with their taper and ends QE, we will be back in a recession. The stock market will be in a bear market. The real estate market will be in a bear market. And then what is the Fed going to do to respond to that? The only thing it can do is print more money and restart the presses and do more QE," Schiff said. Read More China's gold fever to cool in 2014 But Krake pointed out that even if Schiff is right, more QE will not necessarily send gold higher. "Peter, how do justify the following: Last year you had the greatest balance sheet expansion across global central banks in history, yet gold had its worst performance in 30-odd years?" Krake asked. "Did you ever trade anything? Buy the rumor, sell the fact? Gold rallied for over a decade in anticipation of that," Schiff responded. "We shook out some of the weaker players. Meanwhile, gold is outperforming all other assets in 2014." That counterargument flabbergasted Krake. "To make the argument that 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' justifies the greatest move in 30 years versus the greatest balance sheet expansion in central banking history? That is a bit of a lame argument, I'm sorry," Krake said. Read MoreTraders expect gold to shine even brighter—here's why But their disagreement didn't end there. Schiff and Krake have very different views on inflation. While Krake says inflation has been low, Schiff says inflation has in fact run wild. "Inflation is the expansion of the money supply. Quantitative easing is a euphemism for inflation. All the central banks are inflating, that's what they're doing," Schiff said. "The gold market doesn't care about the CPI [referring to a standardized inflation measure], it cares about real inflation. This is all government propaganda trying to convince us that there's not inflation." "Peter, you're miles off base," Krake retorted. "Chinese CPI is at multiyear lows. European CPI is at multiyear lows. Developed market CPI is at its lowest level since October 2008. To say there's inflation, to say there's pricing pressures globally, is incorrect." Who won the gold debate? Peter Schiff Paul Krake They both made valid points Wow, they both lost VOTEVote to see results "Excuse me, but how do you know where prices in China would be if the government wasn't printing all this money?" Schiff responded. "Maybe prices would have gone down by 10 percent. But because they didn't, there's massive inflation." Ignoring Krake's exclamation that "the prices are the prices!" Schiff then laid out his economic perspective of inflation. "A productive economy lowers prices," Schiff said. "Lower prices are the result of economic growth. And if prices aren't falling the way they're supposed to, if consumers are denied the benefit of falling prices because governments have created inflation and stolen that benefit away from them, you can't say there's no inflation." —By CNBC's Alex Rosenberg |
| 15 April 2014 - 三大利好推升金价走高 短期有望突破1330 Posted: 15 Apr 2014 07:53 PM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-04-15/163929359.html 2014年04月15日07:06 来源：解放网-新闻晨报 作者：刘志飞 晨报记者 刘志飞（注册黄金投资分析师） 金价上周继续反弹，连续第二周收阳。目前，技术上走出双底确认的形态。上周金价持续反弹主要是受到三大基本面利好因素的支撑，一方面是美联储上周会议纪要维持温和基调；另一方面欧洲央行表态当前市场投资者最关心的欧元区通缩风险有限，再加上美股呈现筑顶回落态势提振黄金避险需求，推升金价持续走高。 欧洲央行欲加入QE行列 美联储联邦市场公开委员会（FOMC）上周四3月会议纪要显示，美联储可能不会很快加息，投资者恐误读了FOMC内部加息时机预估，而耶伦有关"六个月"加息的言论则可能是在未经内部良好沟通下的"一时失言"。 分析师认为，美联储会议纪要后，黄金的买盘增多，这表明上个月美联储会议后的决议使得投资者过度反应，此次纪要显示出美联储并无比预期更激进的升息计划。现在来看，美联储上个月决定放弃失业率和通胀率升息门槛，并不是为升息扫除障碍，反而是为了实现在结束购债相当长一段时间后才开始升息，不管失业率是不是下降至6%。 此外，上周欧洲央行官员也祭出宽松论调，在欧洲央行管理委员会，魏德曼给人的印象就是他总是在说"不"，是出了名的"摇头先生"，而上周三，这位德国央行行长居然点头支持大规模的资产购买计划。在欧洲央行内部仍在对实施量化宽松政策（QE）的必要性争执不休之际，魏德曼的松口料将有助于提升QE的可信度。分析人士表示，魏德曼的发言非常重要，这是自欧元诞生以来德国央行第一次明确公开表示支持QE。在美联储推迟升息预期、欧洲央行可能祭出QE的背景下，金价不涨反而不正常了。 仅仅这些还不够，上周欧美股市大幅下挫，纳斯达克综合指数上周四暴跌3.10%，创2011年来最大单日跌幅，也将一部分避险资金挤出股市，流入金市。 短期有望突破1330一线 尽管有一连串利好支持，但机构似乎还没有反应过来。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）上周五（4月11日）公布的周度交易报告显示，4月8日当周对冲基金连续第三周削减黄金和白银期货与期权的看涨押注。 Kitco 首席技术分析师Jim Wyckoff近日表示："从技术面来看，当前1325美元一线仍存在较强阻力，但MACD双线已初步金叉，暗示短期风险偏上行。后市突破1330美元一线则看向1350美元。上方强劲阻力位于1350美元，下方关键支撑自隔夜1277.40美元上移至1300美元。" 据Kitco上周五公布的调查显示，本周看多的市场人士超过60%，仅少数仍看跌或看平。但彭博社上周五公布的最新调查给出截然相反的结果：半数黄金交易员和分析师看跌本周金价，但也有接近一半的人看涨。 转到操作层面，其实目前操作比较简单，这两周的反弹是确认双底成立，则金价此轮上涨应突破3月中旬的高点1392美元，甚至1400美元也不会构成太大阻力，上涨空间在80多美元，如果双底确认失败，金价重新掉头，跌破两周前的低点1277美元，则止损，损失40美元左右，机会和风险已经很明显。 关注美国消费者物价指数 本周市场又将有一系列美国和欧洲重要经济数据将要公布，在欧洲和美国货币短币政策基调期货较为明朗的情况下，经济数据料将主导黄金价格的短期走势。周二有美国3月末季调消费者物价指数，周三将公布美国3月营建许可总数。如果本周美国数据依旧延续强劲势头，预计将令处于1325美元关键阻力压制下的黄金价格承压下滑。 分析人士认为，欧元区方面值得我们关注的是欧元区3月调和消费者物价指数终值，一旦欧元区的通胀水平再度下滑，那么欧洲央行势必将会采取进一步的宽松措施，这或对黄金价格会产生一定的支撑作用。 |
| 15 April 2014 - A Gold Obsession Pays Dividends For Indian Women Posted: 15 Apr 2014 07:50 PM PDT by JULIE MCCARTHY April 14, 2014 It's indestructible. It's fungible. It's beautiful. And for Indians, gold – whether it's 18-, 22- or 24-carat — is semi-sacred. The late distinguished Indian economist I.G. Patel observed, "In prosperity as in the hour of need, the thoughts of most Indians turn to gold." No marriage takes place without gold ornaments presented to the bride. Even the poorest Indian outfits girls in the family with a simple nose ring of gold. The India of old was known as "sone ki chidiya" or "golden sparrow," so opulent were the jewels of its rulers from the Moghul dynasty to the princely states. For Indian women who were not formally educated, gifting them gold was their social security. Today, whether Hindu, Christian, Buddhist, or Muslim, bedecking the bride in gold invests her with good fortune, according to anthropologist Nilika Mehrotra. First-time homeowner Amanda Cowley in her new home in the Bloomingdale neighborhood of Washington, D.C. After married couples, single women are the largest demographic group of homebuyers. "A married woman is supposed to be an auspicious woman. She represents Lakshmi, the goddess of wealth. She produces the progeny for the family, the food. She takes care of the family," Mehrotra says. "It's very important. It's central to the way Indians think." Mehrotra notes that in India today land is stolen from women. Women have been disfigured in acid attacks attempting to assert a claim to family property. But gold seems to be the one asset that everyone agrees a woman can rightfully possess. "For sure," says 38-year-old Anshu Srivastava. "That is my property. That is considered to be [a] lady's right." The living room of this New Delhi homemaker, like Ali Baba's cave, leaves no doubt about her obsession. Every inch of décor — from her couches to the pillows on the couches to the drapes on the windows — is the color gold. Discreetly hidden beneath the Srivastava's sleeve is an eye-popping array of gold jewelry. A diamond-crusted gold watch peeks out alongside gold bracelets or "bangles" that are studded with rubies and more diamonds. Asked if she leaves the house with all those treasures on her wrist, Srivastava says, "I always wear this. It's always with me." And if she's robbed? "It's my destiny," she says with a shrug. Srivastava has gold stashed in bank vaults for her teenage daughter one day. She has her own personal jeweler. Srivastava opens up for us her vast collection of jewelry boxes, revealing exquisite gold from her in-laws and her husband. But the most precious are the heirlooms from her mother who began collecting jewelry for her from the time she was 8. Her stockpile of gold earrings, rings, necklaces, and hairpins is lavish but also reflects the centrality of gold in an Indian woman's life. It's given for pregnancies; at births; when a baby first eats solid food. It's engrained in the cultural lexicon. An Indian bride at a mass wedding. Whether Hindu, Christian, Buddhist or Muslim, bedecking an Indian bride in gold is believed to invest her with good fortune. An Indian bride at a mass wedding. Whether Hindu, Christian, Buddhist or Muslim, bedecking an Indian bride in gold is believed to invest her with good fortune. 'My Bangles Sing' The temptress in the star-studded, high-wattage dance number from the 2001 Hindi blockbuster Kabhi Khushi Kabhi Gham (translated, Sometimes Happiness, Sometimes Sadness) croons, "My bangles sing, 'I'm all yours.'" The old Bollywood classic Mother India tells the story of how gold redeems the family's honor. The heroine in this 1957 melodrama is reduced to pawning her gold bangles with the cunning village money lender to save the family farm. Music swelling, she slips off her jewels but never lets go her dignity. So enthralled is India with gold that Indian households control an estimated $600 to $800 billion worth of it, mostly in women's jewelry. That's four times the U.S. reserves in Fort Knox. A women's right to use her gold as she sees fit can vary in India. Anthropologist Mehrotra says women, especially some in the conservative north, require family permission to dispose of their gold. "This kind of limitation, this restriction on her right I think suits the patriarchy, so she is not totally free," Mehrotra says. "Her choice is limited by the nature of the structure of which she is a part." " Indian households control an estimated $600 to $800 billion worth of (gold). That's four times the U.S. reserves in Fort Knox. When Delhi resident Pooja Sharma walked away from her marriage, her husband kept the mother lode of her gold. With the little jewelry she had left, she secured a $400 gold loan, her first, to pay her ailing father's medical bills. Sharma, a financial adviser accustomed to dealing with banks, laughs recalling how she agonized over pledging her jewels with the lender who exchanged her gold for cash and safekeeping until the loan was paid off. "Twice I went to them for clarity, one branch, second branch, different branches," she says, "and then I decided, 'OK, I'll invest.'" Thousands just like Sharma walk each day through the guarded branch doors of Muthoot Finance. With 4,000 branches nationwide, the firm transacts the equivalent of more $50 million in gold loans per day, with interest rates from 12 to 24 percent. At Muthoot, all it takes is 15 minutes for gold to be assessed and cash dispensed — a speed no bank could match. Couple Snigdha Paul and Sanjeev Dey have a new business thanks to their $500 loan, using her and his jewelry as collateral. They are proud owners of a new flower boutique in South Delhi, which Dey calls, "A dream come true." Dey stands before his stall adorned with yellow lilies and pink carnations and chuckles at his good fortune. "That gold has helped me," he says. "I am also part of this economy." He admits his venture is small but says he is able to hire employees. Sanjeev Dey and his wife bought their flower boutique after using their gold jewelry as collateral to get a $500 loan. Because half the population has no access to credit, millions of dollars in loans using gold are dispensed every day in India. Sanjeev Dey and his wife bought their flower boutique after using their gold jewelry as collateral to get a $500 loan. Because half the population has no access to credit, millions of dollars in loans using gold are dispensed every day in India. "I am eradicating unemployment," he says proudly. An Idle Asset? The couple's story is repeated throughout India: The assets of a wife put to work to build small businesses, often for the husband. Avinav Chaubey, head of marketing for Muthoot Finance, says an earlier television ad campaign run by the company featured crafty wives urging their husbands to put their gold to good use, maneuvering around the taboo of men asking women for money. The loans challenge the traditional view of gold as an idle asset. Yet economist Jayati Ghosh insists that obsessive buying of gold deprives India of genuine investment. "Gold is a pure leakage out of the system. It basically is the same as putting your money under a mattress. Well, it's really putting gold bars under the mattress," Ghosh says, "So it's a huge waste especially for a poor economy that needs investment." The Reserve Bank of India, which is akin to the U.S. Federal Reserve, has been struggling to limit gold imports to stop depleting India's foreign reserves and to cut the current account deficit. It has had some success. But with hundreds of millions of Indians without a bank account or access to formal credit, using gold to secure their dreams is not about to stop. Back at Muthoot Finance, Sanjeev Dey's wife, Snigdha Paul, says she'd put her gold ring up as security again if the couple decides to expand their flower stall. "Actually, if I'm getting some benefit in return, then why would I say no," she asks. Her husband interjects that she is now vested. "That money is earning more money. Money begets money," he declares. His petite wife confidently adds, "After all, it's mine: the business and gold and cash – everything is mine. So in return, I'm getting more benefit." Snighda is reminded that the lender has already returned her gold ring and that the couple's loan is now secured exclusively by her husband's gold. Snighda smiles. "His jewelry is my jewelry," she says. The sentiment is symbolic of a "new India," where traditional adornments of the old India are producing a new form of wealth — for women. |
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