India talk lifts <b>gold price</b> above $1,350 | MINING.com |
- India talk lifts <b>gold price</b> above $1,350 | MINING.com
- <b>Gold Price</b> Manipulation: What's Next? | Zero Hedge
- <b>Gold Price</b> Challenges $1350 :: The Market Oracle :: Financial <b>...</b>
- Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: The <b>Gold Price</b> Gained $11.50 Making a <b>...</b>
| India talk lifts <b>gold price</b> above $1,350 | MINING.com Posted: 06 Mar 2014 11:53 AM PST The gold price jumped the $1,350 bar on Thursday, shaking off weakness displayed yesterday when a cooling of Ukraine-Russia tensions saw safe-haven buying dry up. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery last traded at $1,351.50 an ounce, up $11.20 from Wednesday's close and not far off its 2014 best reached on Monday. Gold is now trading near its highest level since September and up more than 12% since the start of the year. The gold price was boosted by speculation that world number two consumer India could soon lift curbs and ease taxes on imports that have been in place for more than a year. The restrictions were designed to shore up the rupee and reduce the country's crippling current account deficit. The latter has now fallen to an 8-year low, while the currency hit a three-month high. Despite the curbs Indian consumption still rose by more than 100 tonnes to 975 tonnes last year while according to some estimates "unofficial imports" almost doubled to triple digits. China is now the top consumer of gold, with 2013 imports soaring to 1,065 tonnes, up from 807 tonnes the year before. Together the two giants are responsible for more than half of the world's demand. Demand in the form of bars, coins and particularly jewellery may rise sharply in India should the punitive duties of 10% and other measures like mandatory re-export of 20% of imports be lifted. China's consumption is also forecast to rise steadily from today levels. The impact of renewed Indian buying may be relatively subdued however, given that Asian demand is highly price sensitive. Premiums demanded by traders in India spiked to as much as $140 an ounce during India's wedding season, but has now fallen back to less than half that despite the acute shortage of bullion inside the country. From as much as $37 when gold was trading at $1,200 last year, premiums paid on the Shanghai Gold Exchange have no fallen back to $1–2 per ounce as the gold price appreciates. Bullion and investment bank HSBC in a research report sums it up this way: "The majority of gold jewelry is purchased in EMs. Traditionally, high prices can have a negative effect on relatively price-sensitive buyers in economies with limited discretionary consumer incomes, such as India, China, the rest of Asia, and countries in the Middle East. According to HSBC, as a result of this, a floor is likely to form around the USD1,200 or lower because such a drop "would likely stimulate retail demand and act as a break on declines", while a sharp rally above USD1,400 or higher, "could weaken physical demand for coins and bars", which would help put a ceiling on prices. Image of Golden Temple in Amritsar, Punjab by Dainis Matisons.  |
| <b>Gold Price</b> Manipulation: What's Next? | Zero Hedge Posted: 06 Mar 2014 06:19 AM PST Source picture: Bloomberg It appears that the gold fanatics were right the whole time. For at least ten years, the price of gold has been manipulated. The banks are the bad guys once more, who would have thought?! If you work at a bank and do your job the way you are supposed to, it might be smart regardless to not talk about your professional activities when you are at a party this week. Although there are 'only' 5 banks involved in the scandal this time, the image of the whole sector will suffer again. The rumor that the gold price was being manipulated had been going around for quite some time and, surprise surprise, it was true! It would be impossible to draw a different conclusion after reading the demolishing report from New York University's Stern School of Business Professor Rosa Abrantes-Metz and Moody's Investors Service's Managing Director Albert Metz. The words in the report were carefully chosen, leaving room for interpretation, although no one will be fooled. If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, flies like a duck, well, it is a duck then, isn't it. Gold price: decades of fixingThe process of gold fixing, which is the setting of the gold price twice each business day, just screams for manipulation, conspiracy and corruption by the banks involved. And the empirical data that was used from 2001 to 2013, shows 'inexplicable price movements' from as far back as 2004 (!) during the midday fix. It probably won't surprise you that those 'inexplicable price movements' most often were downward price movements. In 2010 for example, 92 percent (!) of the large price movements during gold fixing were negative. Gold fixing is done twice each business day, at 10:30am and 3pm London time during a conference call. It used to be done face to face, but since 2004 it is just a conference call. The fixing in itself is still done, however, and is vulnerable to manipulation. These calls between the five banks that are involved usually last no longer than 10 minutes, but have lasted up to an hour or longer. The similarities with the fixing of, for example, the Euribor and Libor interest rates are obvious. The damage done by those events is impossible to calculate, but you can take it from us that we are talking about billions of dollars. Regular citizens are often at the receiving end of all this manipulation, as governments and its tax payers are the ones who pick up the bill all too often. Damage: unknownIt is still too early to make a sensible estimation of the damage that the manipulation of the gold price has caused. But the story will be the same: fines will be given without any further consequence. The current old-fashioned way of fixing the gold price has seen its days however, as confidence in the process has gone up in smoke. Another method will take its place, probably with greater control and supervision. We are curious of course, how this whole ordeal will play out. The researchers of the report are calling for a deeper investigation of the matter. They obviously want to pass on this hot potato, which is understandable. Regardless of the above, further investigation is being done in Germany already. We predict that there will be large fines, lots of accusations and a new method for gold fixing. That, or the investigators will not succeed at producing enough evidence: considering what is at stake here, it is impossible to exclude any scenario. It is hard to surprise us these days. Ultimately, true price discovery will take hold of the gold market. That is nature's law, which can't be fixed by a bunch of bankers. Want to invest in gold? First read our GUIDE TO GOLD! Sprout Money offers a fresh look at investing. We analyze long lasting cycles, coupled with a collection of strategic investments and concrete tips for different types of assets. The methods and strategies from Sprout Money are transformed into the Gold & Silver Report and the Technology Report. Follow us on Twitter @SproutMoney (4 votes) |
| <b>Gold Price</b> Challenges $1350 :: The Market Oracle :: Financial <b>...</b> Posted: 07 Mar 2014 06:24 AM PST By: Alasdair_Macleod
The change in sentiment over the last eight weeks has encouraged small traders to go long on gold. Normally, market-makers would be able to mark prices down aggressively to shake out these short-term speculators, but it has not recently happened. This suggests that the underlying market is robust. Admittedly political developments in the Ukraine are acting as a positive factor, potentially stimulating regional gold demand from countries such as Turkey. There are signs that investor liquidity may also be building in China, driven by bond market concerns. China suffered a minor corporate bond default this morning, notable because it is the first that has been allowed to happen, and it has led to other planned issues being put on hold. Gold is likely to benefit, driven by a new source of Chinese investor anxiety. In theory at these levels there are stale gold bulls from last October/November to take out before the price can regain the $1400-1420 level, which halted the July/August run-up last year. This can be seen in the chart of the gold price below. Neither of these supply hurdles should be significant, because of the significant change in underlying sentiment. Furthermore, the ephemeral nature of futures contracts makes past supply levels progressively less important with time. Silver which is normally twice as volatile as gold, underperformed in January before catching up somewhat last month as shown in the second chart. If gold gets above the $1350s, silver will still have some catching up to do. The futures markets for precious metals are now at a crossroad. The short positions of the hedge funds, which have driven gold and silver prices higher have now been significantly reduced and are no longer extreme. In gold the bullion banks appear to have taken these positions onto their books and also as swaps. In silver, the shorts have been crossed out against matching longs with open interest falling by 18,000 contracts since mid-February. So instead of precious metals being driven by a bear squeeze, the market will need to either continue to lose physical metal to Asia or find growing support from new bulls attracted by the reversal in trend. Both are quite likely, and probably explain why gold is bid, despite some obvious profit-taking. Monday. Eurozone: Sentix Indicator. Japan: M2 Money Supply, Economy Watchers Survey. Tuesday. UK: BRC Retail Sales Monitor, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, NEISR GDP Estimate. US: Wholesale Inventories. Japan: BoJ MPC Overnight Rate. Wednesday. Japan: Consumer Confidence, Key Machinery Orders. UK: Trade Balance. Eurozone: Industrial Production. US: Budget Deficit. Thursday. US: Import Price Index, Initial Claims, Retail Sales, Business Inventories. Friday. Japan: Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production. Eurozone: Employment. US: PPI. Head of research, GoldMoney Alasdair.Macleod@GoldMoney.com Alasdair Macleod runs FinanceAndEconomics.org, a website dedicated to sound money and demystifying finance and economics. Alasdair has a background as a stockbroker, banker and economist. He is also a contributor to GoldMoney - The best way to buy gold online. © 2014 Copyright Alasdair Macleod - All Rights Reserved © 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. |
| Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: The <b>Gold Price</b> Gained $11.50 Making a <b>...</b> Posted: 06 Mar 2014 03:26 PM PST Gold Price Close Today : 1351.70 Change : 11.50 or 0.86% Silver Price Close Today : 21.542 Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.747 Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01594 Platinum Price Close Today : 1486.20 Palladium Price Close Today : 780.95 S&P 500 : 1,877.03 Dow In GOLD$ : $205.26 Dow in GOLD oz : 9.930 Dow in SILVER oz : 623.06 Dow Industrial : 13,421.89 US Dollar Index : 80.140 The GOLD PRICE mounted $11.50 (0.9%) today to close at a new high for the move, $1,351.70. The gain we attributed to the Ukraine war scare has not evaporated. Silver trotted right alongside and outpaced the gold price, jumping 30.3% (1.4%) to 2154.2c. Only think that makes my heart race the least little bit about the GOLD PRICE is that the high at $1,352.50 did not quite meet Monday's $1,355. Still, the close was higher. It's also trading in the high half of the Bollinger Bands, but not as smack-up against the top line as it was all through February. And for all the pause at the old $1,360 resistance, the move off the December low does not look complete. I need not figure this out, as the market will tell us tomorrow by falling sharply away from $1,350 or punching right through it. In that case, you ought to buy it. The SILVER PRICE better performance today took the gold/silver ratio back below 63:1 for the first time in four days, to 62.747. This is also faint, but hopeful. Silver has now twice hit the 200 day moving averages (2101c) twice bounced off, and now soared away. It needs only to close above 2218c (the recent high) to launch another rally leg. That, too, would be a spot to buy. Today's mystery to ponder is the market proverb, "Bull markets always climb a wall of worry." I thought the US dollar index had plumb fallen off the cliff when I saw it closed down 45 basis points (0.56%) to 79.68. Then I peered at the chart a little closer, drew another line, and durned if it hadn't traced out a falling wedge, which generally (but NOT always) resolves with an upside breakout, i.e., the opposite of the way it points (ditto a rising wedge). Well, that better be the answer, because at 79.68 the dollar index is at its December low (79.50) and closing in on its low since October (79.06). Behold, the limb of decision. Either the dollar index bounces up from here, or the limb breaks and it hits the ground many points below. The euro played mirror image of the US dollar index today, rising 0.9% to $1.3860. I have the same aversion to the euro that I do to cheap shyster lawyers with greasy hair and a smooth line of patter. Doesn't matter how smooth you talk, beneath that pinstriped vest beats no heart and he is way too clever for his own good or mine. Euro is a gallon jug of trinitrotoluene being transported over a bombing range held to the back of a four-wheeler by old rubber bands. One day it'll blow everything to kingdom come. But for today, my, my, it is all shine. It popped way up to the old overhead uptrend boundary and closed up there. If indeed it passes roughly 1.3875, it would run to $1.4000. But there in that chart appeareth the inverse of the dollar index' falling wedge, namely, a rising wedge. I confess, the euro did break through the top of that wedge today, but that may amount to no more than a fake-out, a false break out that quickly reverses. Euro rose today on news from the European Central Bank commissar's meeting that they would keep their interest rate at 0.25%, and that everythin' in Euroland is jes' hunky-dory peachy, economy-wise. I reckon we'll see. Yen gave up the ghost today and gapped down 0.74% to 97.03 cents/y100. This takes it below its 20 day moving average and to its 50 DMA, and pierces the lower boundary of its short-lived trading range. Part of this plunge was no doubt occasioned by the euro's quick rise, so let's see if it holds below 97.5 tomorrow. Stocks behaved oddly today. Always makes me a bit leery when a market jumps way up but give up most of the day's gains by the close. Lack of commitment there. S&P500 made a new all time high close at 1,877.03, up 3.22 (0.17%). It's on its way, it seemeth, to validating a breakout over an earlier high (exceeding 1,888). High today was 1,881.94. Dow still lags the other indices. Rose 61.71 (0.38%) to 16,421.89. Reason I keep harping on the Dow not confirming the other indices is I remember 2000 so well. Dow topped in January, others didn't top till March, but it blew the warning all that time. Dow showed similar behavior in January this year when for several days before the big drop it refused to confirm new highs in other indices. Dow in Gold kept on dropping today, down 0.74% to 12.15 oz (G$251.16 gold dollars). Momentum is down, and 200 DMA stands nearby at 11.99 oz. Dow in silver crossed again below its 20 DMA (763.21 oz) today, falling 1.39% to 761.19 oz. Come to think of it, we may have seen the upper limit of the upward correction two days ago. On to our meditation, "Bull markets always climb a wall of worry." Plainly spoken, "As bull markets climb, there are always hundreds of reasons that argue they should rise further." However, in a bull (rising) market, all questions eventually resolve at higher prices, so the bull climbs that wall of worry. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. |
From last Friday's close at $1322, gold opened strongly on Monday trading, as high as $1355 before losing two thirds of the rise on Tuesday. On Thursday afternoon (GMT) gold rallied back to challenge the $1350 level. This morning (Friday) it is in the balance as to whether or not gold will need more consolidation before moving on towards $1400, with everyone watching out for US employment numbers.
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