Gold Price Rebound Driven by Big Futures Buying - The Market Oracle

Gold Price Rebound Driven by Big Futures Buying - The Market Oracle
Technical chart shows silver price about to leap towards $100 an ...
Hidden Secrets of Money = Gold Price Chart 2013 - India - 10 years ...
10 Charts Pointing To Higher Gold Prices In 2014 And Beyond ...
Gold Prices Climb Despite Friday's Retreat: Weekly Gold ETF Update

Posted: 14 Mar 2014 01:50 PM PDT

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014 Mar 14, 2014 - 06:50 PM GMT

Gold's strong rebound upleg this year has been driven by big gold-futures buying. After abandoning gold last year, American futures speculators are returning to the yellow metal in droves. These capital inflows are a very bullish harbinger, as major futures buying is the primary fuel for young gold uplegs before investors return to take the baton. And this big gold-futures buying is likely less than half done!

From a pure fundamental supply-and-demand standpoint, gold's crushing losses last year were solely attributable to record gold-ETF selling by stock traders. The World Gold Council's comprehensive 2013 data showed that global gold-ETF outflows from epic share selling was actually a third greater than the total worldwide drop in gold demand! Without those extreme gold-ETF liquidations, gold wouldn't have plunged.

Thankfully stock traders are just starting to buy gold-ETF shares again, resulting in capital inflows from the stock markets to gold for the first time in over a year. This critical mean reversion of investor interest in gold has barely even begun. So far, the flagship American GLD gold ETF has only recovered 1/25th of its bullion hemorrhaged in 13 months ending in January! Investors are driving this new gold-ETF holdings recovery.

But a major secondary factor in gold suffering its worst loss in a third of a century last year was record futures selling. In the first half of 2013, American futures speculators dumped gold at blistering sustained rates. Provocatively as soon as their outsized selling peaked mid-year, gold prices stabilized even though the heavy gold-ETF liquidations continued. Futures trading dominates global gold-price action!

There are multiple reasons for this. While gold trades universally in physical form, the actual prices vary slightly. The American gold-futures market provides one centralized price quotation that the rest of the markets can cue off. Actual gold bullion is costly and cumbersome to trade, but futures allow instant leveraged gold-price exposure to large hedgers and speculators. And gold futures have been around for decades.

American gold futures started trading in late 1974, when gold ownership finally became legal again for Americans after being banned for four decades by a Democratic president. Meanwhile GLD wasn't born until late 2004, three decades after US gold futures started trading. So from a real-time-price and trader-sentiment perspective, American gold futures remain the only game in town. They truly are the gold price.

So just as extreme gold-futures selling slaughtered the gold price in the first half of 2013, heavy gold-futures buying is lifting it this year. The implications of this critical shift are very bullish. Based on multi-year averages, this gold-futures buying is likely only half done at best. As futures buying continues to push gold higher, more and more investors will be enticed back to strengthen and amplify gold's new upleg.

It's important to remember that futures are a zero-sum game. Every futures contract has one trader on the long side and another on the short side. The former is betting the underlying price will rise, and the latter that it will fall. Every dollar won by the winner is a direct dollar loss for the loser. Because of this core structure, the total number of longs and shorts outstanding in gold futures are always perfectly equal.

But there are two distinct groups of futures traders, hedgers and speculators. Hedgers actually produce or consume the underlying commodity, so they simply use futures to lock in their future selling or buying prices to minimize market risks on their businesses. But speculators trade futures solely in the hunt for profits, they have no commercial dealings in gold. Their highly-variable buying and selling drives the gold price.

Every week the main US futures regulator releases a great report called the Commitments of Traders that breaks down the futures positions held by both hedgers and speculators. The charts in this essay are built from that CoT data, revealing how American futures speculators are betting on gold. And they have been buying it aggressively, which is why the gold price has surged so nicely in the past few months.

This chart may look complex, but it's quite simple. The green line shows the number of gold contracts that American futures speculators hold the long side of on a weekly basis. These are leveraged bets the gold price is going to rise, so the higher this metric the more bullish traders collectively are on gold. And the red line shows their bets on the short side, where higher numbers mean they are more bearish as a herd.

In order to grasp the implications of the big gold-futures buying this year, understanding the context of the big gold-futures selling last year is essential. Gold plunged 26.4% in the first half of last year, in three distinct selloffs that all had major futures-selling components. Last February, it all started when gold fell on a futures bear raid while most Asian traders were away for week-long Lunar New Year celebrations.

American speculators triggered this 6.7% 2-week decline by aggressively selling short gold futures. They effectively borrowed gold from other traders, sold it, and then hoped to buy it back cheaper later to repay their debt after its price had fallen. Speculators' total short-side bets on gold surged about 50k contracts in that time! This is truly a vast amount, as each futures contract controls 100 troy ounces of gold.

The equivalent of 5m ounces of gold hitting the markets in a couple weeks, or 155.5 metric tons, was brutal. By that point in 2013, the total gold-bullion outflows from differential GLD-share selling was just 51.6t over 7 weeks. This pushed gold down near critical multi-year support at $1550, setting it up for April's shocking panic-like plunge. Once that technical line in the sand crumbled, all hell broke loose.

As $1550 failed in mid-April, gold plummeted 13.8% in just 2 trading days! Gold hadn't seen anything remotely close to that for three decades, it was crazy. That critical-support break triggered stop losses on speculators' long gold-futures contracts, so they were forced to liquidate. This sparked margin calls on other traders, spawning a vicious circle of selling. Unfortunately the weekly CoT data masks this anomaly.

The CoT reports are current to each Tuesday's close. Gold's panic-like plummet in mid-April happened on a Friday and Monday, right in the middle of a CoT week. While many traders were getting stopped out of long contracts, many other traders were buying them aggressively since gold's selloff was so extreme. So despite the minor weekly CoT changes, there was massive volume and churn within that week.

That event was so scary that it galvanized futures speculators into a hyper-bearish outlook. Just like at all extremes, they assumed that anomaly was the start of a new trend that would persist for some time. This led them to continue dumping gold futures relentlessly, making their bet a self-fulfilling prophecy. Between late April just after that plummet and early July, speculators fled gold futures at an unprecedented rate.

You can see this on the chart, the falling green line showing long positions being sold while the rising red one shows short bets growing. In futures trading, the price impact of selling an existing long position and selling to create a new short position is identical. The shorting accelerated as gold plunged again in June after Ben Bernanke laid out the Fed's best-case timeline for slowing its QE3 debt monetizations.

2013 was as far from a normal year in gold as you can get. Not only was it gold's worst year in nearly a third of a century, the second quarter was gold's worst quarter in an astounding 93 years! Epic gold selloffs like we witnessed last April and June simply don't happen, they are exceedingly rare. So there was no doubt that both futures speculators' extremely-bearish psychology and resulting bets weren't normal.

As I was trying to figure out just how wildly outlying all this was in the middle of last year, I needed some baseline for normal gold markets. I decided to simply look at their post-stock-panic years before 2013, the 2009-to-2012 era, for that comparison. As the next chart shows in a little bit, both speculators' total long and short contracts held in gold futures had radically different averages over that secular span.

The total deviation of both speculators' gold-futures longs and shorts from their 2009-to-2012 averages is represented by the yellow line above. By early July this critical metric had ballooned over 204k contracts. This meant American futures traders had sold the equivalent of 20.4m ounces of gold that they would normally hold, or 634.8 metric tons! This dwarfed GLD's year-to-date liquidation of 411.1t.

The sheer magnitude of this first-half-of-2013 gold-futures selling defies belief. The World Gold Council reports all the world's mines supplied 2969t of gold in all of 2013. Since gold is produced at a constant rate, halving that yields 1484t in the first half. So American speculators' futures selling alone was so great in that span that it was like a 43% boost in mined supply! No wonder gold wilted under such an onslaught.

But the great thing about futures and markets in general is extremes never last. Eventually after anything is sold too long, bearishness peaks and the anomalous selling burns itself out. So there was no doubt that American speculators would have to start buying gold futures again soon to reverse these hyper-bearish bets. On the short side in particular, it was mandatory. Those record shorts had to be covered!

Despite their sophistication, gold-futures traders are human just like the rest of us. They too suffer from groupthink and herd mentality, getting too greedy and bullish when prices are already too high and too scared and bearish when prices are already too low. Historically, the aggregate speculators' gold-futures positions are actually strong contrarian indicators. Their low longs and high shorts predicted an imminent reversal.

Indeed in July and August the speculators started aggressively covering their shorts, buying about 75k contracts or 233.3t of gold. This drove a sharp 18.2% 2-month gold rally, but unfortunately it fizzled out. Major new uplegs are always born with widespread short covering, as speculators buying to close their shorts at profits are often the only buyers around near extreme lows at peak despair. But their buying is finite.

An upleg can't continue unless the upside price action initially sparked by short covering leads to enough bullish psychology to bring in other buyers. First futures speculators need to start adding new long-side bets, and then investors must gradually return to take over the capital-inflows lead. While there were encouraging signs of both gold-futures buying and gold-ETF buying, it soon ran out of steam.

So futures speculators resumed shorting gold with a vengeance in November, as they continued to whittle down their long-side bets. By early December, the total deviation of spec long and short contracts from their 2009-to-2012 averages was back up near 201k! But just as this extreme anomaly proved unsustainable in early July, it was no more so in early December. Futures selling was simply exhausted.

Provocatively for most of 2013, futures speculators feared nothing more than the Fed slowing its QE3 money printing to buy bonds. But when the rumor became fact and the QE3 taper arrived by surprise in December, gold only slumped to modest new lows. The American futures speculators didn't add to their high short positions, and they actually started buying longs again! Thus gold started to reverse higher.

In January and February the speculators' short covering accelerated, they have bought back over 62k contracts (the equivalent of 194.5t of gold) since early December. Once again this major short covering has birthed what is likely to grow into a major upleg. But even more encouraging, they have also started to buy on the long side in a major way for the first time since last year's carnage. This is a super-bullish omen!

Futures contracts have expiration dates, so speculators legally have to buy to cover their shorts to effectively repay their borrowed gold in a matter of months after selling it short. But they have no similar obligation to buy on the long side. So new long-side buying reflects a genuine shift in their collective sentiment away from the extreme bearishness that crushed gold in early 2013. And it feeds on itself.

The more futures contracts speculators buy, the higher the gold price rallies. This brings in even more buyers, both in the futures realm initially and later in the far-more-important investment realm. It also puts tremendous pressure on the remaining speculators with short positions to buy back their bleeding bets to stem their mounting losses. And incredibly, this highly-likely futures buying is only half over!

Once again that yellow data series shows the total deviation in speculators' gold-futures long and short contracts from their respective 2009-to-2012 averages in normal markets. This deviation peaked at 204.1k contracts in early July, and again at 200.8k in early December. All this gold that was sold had to be repurchased, driving gold higher, to return to market normalcy. As of the latest CoT report, it is still at 102.0k!

Gold has run 15.0% higher in the past several months or so almost solely on American futures buying. While stock-market capital has just started returning to gold via GLD, that is just 23.1t so far compared to 317.6t of futures buying. And these futures speculators still need to buy another 102.0k contracts, or 317.2t more gold, merely to mean revert to their secular-average levels of bets in normal market conditions!

This final chart extends this same CoT data back to 2008, to show those critical long-term averages. And the word average is key. It's certainly not like speculators' long-side gold-futures bets have to hit new record highs, or their short-side ones have to fall to zero. Between 2009 and 2012, before 2013's craziness, speculators averaged 288.5k long gold contracts and 65.4k short ones on a weekly basis per the CoTs.

As of the latest CoT report, speculators' longs were only back up to 208.6k contracts. This is still 79.9k, or the equivalent of 248.6t of gold, below their long-term post-panic average. By mid-December 2013, these bullish bets on gold had fallen to their lowest level in 5 years, since the also extreme and short-lived anomaly of 2008's stock panic. Just take a look at what speculator longs did after that crazy event!

They rocketed dramatically higher over the subsequent year or so, catapulting the gold price 54% higher and paving the way psychologically for investors to return en masse. This is all but certain to happen again after today's extreme, as that's just the way mean reversions out of extremes work universally in the financial markets. Once buying after extreme selling starts, it takes a long time for it to run its course.

There is less gold-buying fuel left on the short side, with speculators total shorts now at 87.4k contracts. This is only 22.1k or 68.6t above their pre-2013 post-panic average. Still, that certainly isn't a trivial amount of gold. Most short covering happens early on, before long-side buying. Back in early July, speculators' total shorts hit 178.9k contracts! That was their highest level in at least 14.5 years, if not ever.

Another 102k contracts of gold-futures buying, as much as has already happened, is bullish enough for gold. But one of the greatest things about mean reversions is they seldom merely return to averages after hitting extremes. They nearly always overshoot to the opposite side! Like a pendulum pulled too far to one side, the momentum built in the reversion is so strong that the pendulum can't just stop mid-arc.

So there is nearly a certainty that we are going to see way more than another 102k contracts or 317t of gold-futures buying by speculators. The odds are overwhelming that their total longs will not stop mid-arc at their 288.5k 2009-to-2012 average, but soar well beyond that up towards 375k or so like after the stock panic. And their shorts are likely to fall far below their 65.4k average, likely challenging 40k again.

Run these numbers, and we're looking at potentially 214k contracts of gold-futures buying or 665 metric tons in the next year or so! That much futures buying along with the investment buying the resulting gold upleg will create should easily push gold back up over $1800 again, it not much higher. Mean reversions out of extremes are the most powerful trends in all the markets, incredible profit opportunities.

At Zeal we've been riding this one since its birth. As battle-forged contrarians, we've been brave when others were afraid. We've been aggressively buying dirt-cheap gold and silver stocks with outstanding fundamentals, and advising our subscribers to do the same. We're all already sitting on big unrealized gains (up to +120% since November) that will grow far larger as gold's recovery upleg continues to run.

You ought to enjoy the profitable fruits of our hard work! We publish acclaimed weekly and monthly newsletters for contrarians who like to buy low and sell high. They draw on our decades of hard-won experience, knowledge, wisdom, and ongoing research to explain what's going on in the markets, why, and how to profit from it with specific trades. Since 2001, all 664 stock trades recommended in our newsletters have averaged stellar annualized realized gains of +25.7%! Join us today for just $10 an issue, a steal.

The bottom line is big gold-futures buying has fueled this year's strong gold rally. And it wasn't just short covering like last summer, but the first major new long-side buying since last year's carnage as well. This greatly increases the odds that we are witnessing the birth of a major new mean-reversion upleg in gold. And incredibly, even to mean revert to average levels this futures buying is only half done so far.

But mean reversions out of market extremes never simply stop at averages, they overshoot in an often dramatic fashion. So there is likely a lot more futures gold buying coming than merely a return to normalcy would suggest. As this continues to relentlessly push gold higher, more and more investors with their far-larger pools of capital will return to take the baton. And a massive upleg will be the ultimate result.

Adam Hamilton, CPA

So how can you profit from this information? We publish an acclaimed monthly newsletter, Zeal Intelligence , that details exactly what we are doing in terms of actual stock and options trading based on all the lessons we have learned in our market research. Please consider joining us each month for tactical trading details and more in our premium Zeal Intelligence service at … www.zealllc.com/subscribe.htm

Questions for Adam? I would be more than happy to address them through my private consulting business. Please visit www.zealllc.com/adam.htm for more information.

Thoughts, comments, or flames? Fire away at zelotes@zealllc.com . Due to my staggering and perpetually increasing e-mail load, I regret that I am not able to respond to comments personally. I will read all messages though and really appreciate your feedback!

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Technical chart shows silver price about to leap towards $100 an ...

Posted: 16 Mar 2014 09:34 PM PDT

Posted on 17 March 2014 with 1 comment from readers

If the double bottom established by gold last year is good for the gold price it is outstandingly good news for silver. The latest technical chart from guru Clive Maund establishes a clear upward bounce towards $100 an ounce silver is in prospect.

He comments: 'On this chart we see that, despite the severity of the reaction of the past three years, silver never broke down from its long-term uptrend, which now looks set to reassert itself with a vengeance after a fine base pattern has formed at a classic juncture, in a zone of strong support just above the support line of the long-term uptrend.

Monster uptrend

'Volume indicators are positive, relative to price, and everything is in place for a monster uptrend to begin, with the giant blue arrow drawn on the chart designed to assist those of you with limited powers of imagination in grasping its potential magnitude'…

Subscribers to our monthly newsletter got the strongest possible tip to buy silver in our New Year issue and our leveraged investment ideas have already delivered great returns so far. But this is just the beginning. The next edition will revisit gold and silver investments and how to gear up for maximum gains without taking on any debt (subscribe here).

We think silver and gold, in that order, are the investment opportunity of the year. Gold hit a fresh six month high of $1,390 at the time of writing on the uncertainty surrounding the referendum in Crimea, although with a 95.5 per cent endorsement of a Russian takeover one might have expected uncertainty to fall on the result.

Sound money

Nonetheless, the geopolitics of Ukraine is nothing by comparison to the many other bullish factors supporting precious metals this year. The flight to sound money in a world of money printing continues. And we can see a US stock market correction on the near horizon that will keep the Fed's QE program alive and well into the future.

Meanwhile the reversal of last year's outflow of money from precious metals has barely started and the outperformance of silver versus gold in an uptrend is an established fact of life because silver reserves are tiny by comparison to gold.

Posted on 17 March 2014 Categories: Gold & Silver

Hidden Secrets of Money = Gold Price Chart 2013 - India - 10 years ...

Posted: 24 Feb 2014 06:45 AM PST

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10 Charts Pointing To Higher Gold Prices In 2014 And Beyond ...

Posted: 17 Feb 2014 02:59 PM PST

In this article we look at gold from different angles: the money supply, the physical gold market and technical gold indicators. Ten long term charts point to a healty condition in the gold market amid the price drop of 2013. We have always advocated to look at gold in a holistic way; the following charts offer a wide perspective. The charts were created and presented by Frank Holmes (USFunds.com) during the recent World Money Show.

Monetary conditions

In the first month of 2014, the M2 money supply, which is a measure of money supply that includes cash, savings and checking deposits, grew faster than the previous two years. In 2012, M2 grew 7.6 percent and in 2013, money supply rose 4.7 percent; at an annualized rate, January's money supply growth "reached an annualized rate of increase of 8.75 percent," according to Bloomberg's Precious Metal Mining team. This may mean "the U.S. Federal Reserve is trying to resurrect inflation, thus increasing the appeal of gold, the supply of which can only increase about 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent annually," says Bloomberg.

The first two charts show the historic correlation between the money supply and the price of gold. The global money supply has clearly driven gold prices, although 2013 was the year in which a significant disconnect occurred. The odds favor an upward revision of the gold price, re-establishing the long term correlation.

As Jim Rickards argues in his book, the price of gold would be well above $3,000 if there was some sort of tie between gold and the money supply. Jim Rickards still expects that the central banks will be forced by market forces to re-establish a tie with gold at some point in the future.

US Money supply vs gold price 1934 2014 price

Physical gold market

2013 was the year of a massive liquidation in physical metal backing gold ETF's. The following chart presents the exceptional outflow of gold out of primarily the GLD . The key question, in our opinion, is not the outlfow, but what happened with that gold. The most common answer is that it went East. Is this positive or negative for gold? We believe it's extremely positive, because the metal is now in strong hands which will keep it for several years or decades. The key point in all this is that much less physical gold will be available once the Western investment demand will pick up again, leading to a potential shortage in the gold market.

The East loves gold. The explosive demand for gold in China is supported by an increase in incomes, a trend that is significantly different compared to the West. This trends favors the affordability of the yellow metal among the biggest gold consumer in the world.

China's investment and jewelry demand has exploded in the last two years. The lower the price of gold went, the higher the demand for the metal. The following chart present an interesting insight: the average grams of gold consumed per inhabitant. Simple math learns that additional 0.1 gram of gold per capita results in an additional 130 tonnes gold demand (which is 5% of the current gold year supply).

Technical picture

From a technical point of view, gold is extremely oversold. Any historic measure shows that the current situation is extreme. One of those measures is the gold oscillator, measuring year-on-year change. A correction to the mean is long overdue.

The successful retest of the June 2013 bottom is a very powerful technical signal.

A short squeeze could be an important technical driver to drive short term gold prices. The chart shows how the gold price tends to rise with extreme short positions by COMEX speculators (non-commercials).

What is tremendously powerful for gold stock investors is this chart: in the last 3 decades, there were only 3 times that gold stocks only saw a consecutive 3-year loss.

Full presentation

Gold Prices Climb Despite Friday's Retreat: Weekly Gold ETF Update

Posted: 09 Mar 2014 04:28 PM PDT

Gold managed to have another positive week, despite Friday's 0.78 percent drop after the better-than-expected non-farm payrolls report for Gold 6 300x225 Gold Prices Climb Despite Friday's Retreat: Weekly Gold ETF Update February. Gold began the week by hitting a four-month high on Monday, as tensions in the Ukraine sent investors to the safe haven of the yellow metal. Nevertheless, Friday's jobs report erased a good portion of the week's gains, as the news was seen as a "green light" for more tapering by the Federal Reserve.

Although gold prices had been expected to suffer from the tapering of the of the Federal Reserve's bond-buying program, the spot price of gold has risen 11.21 percent since January 1. The quantitative easing program is credited with pushing gold prices to record highs during 2011. The weakening of the dollar which resulted from quantitative easing had enhanced gold's status as a "safe haven". As a result, the phase-out of QE has been seen as a threat to gold prices.

A review of the chart for gold's spot price demonstrates that when the price rose above $1,237 per ounce on January 3, it broke the neckline of December's bearish head-and-shoulders pattern on the chart. On February 18, the spot price rose as high as $1,332.40 per ounce, crossing above the neckline of the October 17 – November 11 head-and-shoulders pattern to break its curse and signal the likelihood of a further advance. After jumping 1.63 percent to close at $1,350.30 on Wednesday, gold prices settled into a consolidation phase.

The chart below depicts the trading activity in the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD) during the past 180 days (Chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com).

GLD Chart March 7 300x227 Gold Prices Climb Despite Friday's Retreat: Weekly Gold ETF Update As with the spot price of gold, an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern formed on the GLD chart since January 24, signaling the likelihood of a further advance. Friday's close at $129.09 per share brought GLD 2.62 percent above its 200-day moving average (currently $125.79).

GLD's Relative Strength Index declined to 61.36 from last week's 63.38. The MACD just crossed below the signal line, suggesting that GLD could decline during the immediate future.

The following is a summary of how precious metal spot prices and ETFs performed from the close on Friday, February 28 until the close on Friday, March 7:

Gold ETF Update:

Gold Spot Price: $1,339.90/oz, +0.85%

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Gold Price Rebound Driven by Big Futures Buying - The Market Oracle

<b>Gold Price</b> Rebound Driven by Big Futures Buying - The Market Oracle

Monetary conditions

Physical gold market

Technical picture

Full presentation

Gold ETF Update:

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