15 March 2014 - 专家：黄金将成更重要的货币资产 美元迟早被质疑 |
- 15 March 2014 - 专家：黄金将成更重要的货币资产 美元迟早被质疑
- 15 March 2014 - Why gold smuggling is on the rise in India
- 15 March 2014 - 黄金迎来最佳投资季 金价不太可能出现深跌
| 15 March 2014 - 专家：黄金将成更重要的货币资产 美元迟早被质疑 Posted: 17 Mar 2014 03:11 AM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-03-13/163008394.html 2014年03月13日15:38 来源：FX168 In Gold We Trust报告的作者Ronald Stoeferle在近日的采访中称，他坚信黄金会成为更重要的货币资产，他认为黄金会重新进入古典金融中。 Stoeferle说："我很确定黄金在古典金融中的复兴会继续，去年货币金融机构官方论坛(OMFIF)的报告中对黄金的重新货币化有偏向。他们认为黄金会再次在国际货币系统中扮演中心角色。这非常明显的能看出货币系统基本面的变化已经在最高层次被讨论了。" 此外，欧洲议会委任的一份报告中，作者Ansgar Belke认为黄金支撑的债券会变得更加透明，比政府购债计划更吸引投资者。Belke认为黄金支撑的债券至少在短期内会减缓主权债务危机，因为它能够降低金融成本并且重新带来信心。 "至于美元，全球对将其作为储备货币的信心绝对是开始动摇了，"Stoeferle说道，"没有稳定的金融和货币政策，美元迟早会被质疑。" "因此，我相信黄金会继续成为所有投资组合的不可或缺的部分，它是唯一一个既不牵扯债务又没有债权关系的流动投资资产，"Stoeferle说道，"黄金是唯一一个不依赖政府的国际间支付手段，并且在所有战争和国家破产之后都幸存了下来。我认为黄金的货币重要性正在被重新发现。" |
| 15 March 2014 - Why gold smuggling is on the rise in India Posted: 17 Mar 2014 03:08 AM PDT From:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-26511425 Indians traditionally hoard gold in the belief it will bring financial security. Now India, the world's largest consumer of gold, is seeing a record rise in smuggling, reports Shantanu Guha Ray. An estimated 700kg of gold is smuggled into India every day. Officials at India's Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) say the country has not seen such a sharp rise in contraband gold for two decades. They claim smugglers are using innovative ways to bring in the metal illegally. Sometimes gold is melted into seed-shaped chips and hidden in dates from Dubai, or ground into granules and mixed with other metals to look like ore. The metal is also being converted into gold belt buckles and torch batteries. The smuggling is becoming increasingly difficult to contain, admit regulators. Officials from the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence say smugglers are regularly using the air route, taking advantage of airlines that club international routes with domestic ones using the same flight. 'Unprecedented' First, carriers smuggle gold abroad and hide it in the aircraft, while another set of carriers board the same flight on the domestic route and walk away with the consignment. "This is unprecedented and unbelievable. A new industry has emerged in India - it is a very dangerous situation," says Konal Doshi, a top official at the Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), a Mumbai-based body of the Indian Commerce Ministry. According to his figures, smuggling rose by almost 300% between March 2013 and April 2014. Triggered by a rise in duty on imports of gold jewellery introduced in June last year, smuggled gold worth 2,500m rupees ($41.18m; £24.75m) was confiscated at various ports and airports between March and December last year, up from 500m rupees during the same period in the previous fiscal year. Last year, the government hiked the import duty on gold three times, eventually to 15%, to curb demand for the precious metal and rein in a widening current account deficit that had touched a record high of $88bn (£53bn) in 2012-13. A current account deficit is the difference between inflow and outflow of foreign currency and occurs when imports are greater than exports. The government now expects the deficit to fall below $50bn in the current financial year, ending 31 March. Gold imports, which had peaked at 162,000kg in May 2013, came down to 19,300kg in November after the government hiked the duty. But the smuggling of gold, mainly from Dubai and Sharjah, where the metal is cheaper, is on the rise, authorities say. The GJEPC has asked the finance ministry to slash the import duty on gold. Sonia Gandhi, the president of the ruling Congress party, has also written a letter to the commerce ministry seeking the removal of the curbs. 'Back to the 1990s' But Delhi is not keen to cut the duty yet. "At present, there is no proposal under consideration," Minister of State for Finance JD Seelam told parliament recently. The main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party says the government has reintroduced controls that were previously dropped by Congress in 1993 in order to curb smuggling and money laundering. "But we are back to the 1990s. Gold is being smuggled in from our neighbouring countries," senior BJP member and former finance minister Yashwant Sinha says. DRI officials admit that less than 1% of the contraband gold is confiscated by law enforcers. "The move to increase import duty is not working. In India, everyone - even the poorest of the poor - invests in gold. This move can only work if all the smuggled gold is confiscated by the regulators," says economist Surjit Bhalla. But that looks like a near impossible task. |
| 15 March 2014 - 黄金迎来最佳投资季 金价不太可能出现深跌 Posted: 17 Mar 2014 03:05 AM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-03-15/163057006.html 2014年03月15日00:05 来源：中国证券报 许多投资者对贵金属实物比较了解，但很少人知道黄金投资是存在季节性的。由于各种原因，特别是来自中国和印度这两大实物黄金消费国的需求，对黄金投资者产生着重要影响。 通过调查统计近20年的黄金平均月度损益数据，证金贵金属研究发现，无论是在牛市还是熊市，3月通常是黄金表现最差的月份，而9、10月份则是表现最佳的月份。这也就意味着，3月可能是购买黄金的最佳季节。事实证明，今年以来，黄金在前两个月飙升超过10%，但3月仍然出现了回落的走势。这项统计对于我们掌握黄金投资的趋势，以及制定买卖策略有着很大帮助。如果你现在看好贵金属，稳健的投资者可以选择每年3月购买黄金，持有至9、10月份的黄金消费旺季，这可以帮助我们把黄金投资变得很简单。 在这个货币贬值的年代，每个人都应该拥有对冲通胀的手段，除了传统的实物黄金，风险控制能力更强的杠杆性贵金属投资产品也是不错的选择。 货币的购买力不断下降已经成为不争的事实，持有美元资产的投资者可能需要准备好应对可能出现的风险。两年前，在欧元区债务危机中，美元曾经是表现最好的货币，而随着欧洲版购债计划的稳步实施，欧元区经济已经走出低谷，而美元走势仍存在变数。 作为美联储主席耶伦，在上任后直截了当地阐述了美联储的双重使命，促进价格稳定和就业目标并不冲突，通货膨胀已不是一个问题。证金贵金属认为，美联储为了推动经济复苏，需要通货膨胀来推高房价，其产生的负面影响必然削弱政府债务的价值，届时，较高的通货膨胀率可能会给美元带来坏消息，美元持续走弱将有利于黄金的避险价值得到进一步体现。 美联储近几年来大规模购买债券的行为，已经导致美国资产价格变得扭曲。这也许不是简单的货币分配问题，重要的是创造了巨大的资产泡沫，它们会导致全球其他经济体的连锁反应。短期内通过美国的经济数据，我们可以看到经济复苏的迹象。但其实衡量一个国家最重要的经济数据是GDP，美国的GDP增速连续下滑已是不争的事实，并且短期内难以随着天气转暖大幅反弹。若美联储放弃宽松的货币政策，就意味着政府需要偿还更多债务，不断为各行业埋单，这一切都可能成为一个恶性循环，政府财政状况的恶化会使得经济衰退更加明显。 证金贵金属认为，美联储未来仍可能进一步降息或实施新一轮大规模的资产购买计划，以抵消政府的压力。在这种宽松的预期下，金价不太可能出现深跌，黄金未来仍然是机构和个人避险保值不可或缺的重要资产。 |
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