14 March 2014 - Gold up at six-month high as Ukraine, China prompt safe-haven bids |
| 14 March 2014 - Gold up at six-month high as Ukraine, China prompt safe-haven bids Posted: 14 Mar 2014 04:18 AM PDT Reuters Mar 13, 2014, 01.31PM IST SINGAPORE: Gold extended gains to a third session on Thursday, scaling fresh six-month highs as investors sought to hedge their bets against geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and economic slowdown fears in China. Gold is seen as a safe-haven asset during times of economic and political uncertainty, when the metal is preferred by investors over riskier assets such as equities. It has gained 14 per cent so far this year on the global uncertainties. A recent bond default in China and a weak exports report sent equities and base metals lower. More data on Thursday showed China's economy slowed markedly in the first two months of the year, with growth in investment, retail sales and factory output all falling to multi-year lows. Spot gold rose 0.4 per cent to $1,371.76 an ounce by 0737 GMT, after jumping 1.3 per cent on Wednesday. The metal earlier on Thursday hit $1,374.85, its highest since Sept. 10. Technical buying has also been supportive of price momentum in the last two sessions, especially after prices cleared a recent high near $1,355 an ounce. "Given bullion's technical break, it may be at risk of profit-taking in the near term, barring an escalation of Eastern European tensions," HSBC analysts said in a note. "Geopolitical events can have a pronounced, but sometimes short-lived impact on gold." Reuters technicals analyst Wang Tao said spot gold faces resistance at $1,375-$1,377, a break above which will open the way towards $1,433.31, the Aug. 28 high. The biggest factor driving gold prices at the moment is the stand-off between the West and Russia over Ukraine. The EU agreed on a framework on Wednesday for its first sanctions on Russia since the Cold War, a stronger response to the Ukraine crisis than many expected and a mark of solidarity with Washington in the drive to make Moscow pay for seizing Crimea. New money has been flowing into gold-backed exchange traded funds in recent weeks, in a sign of investor confidence, after record outflows last year. However, holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 1.50 tonnes to 811.20 tonnes on Wednesday - the first decline since Feb. 19. Physical demand has been subdued due to the price rally, with prices in China - the biggest bullion consumer - trading at a discount to spot prices. |
| Posted: 14 Mar 2014 04:16 AM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-03-14/163025714.html 2014年03月14日07:01 来源：信息时报 受乌克兰地缘政治危机影响，金价周四早盘延续升势，最高触及1374.85美元，为去年9月10日以来的新高。 欧盟周三就冷战以来首度制裁俄罗斯达成框架协议，对乌克兰危机所作回应力度大于许多人所预期，显示欧盟与美国团结一致力图使俄罗斯为"攫取"克里米亚付出代价，制裁方案将对被控破坏乌克兰领土完整的个人及企业实施旅行禁令并冻结资产。而德国总理默克尔表示，除非外交努力取得进展，否则将于下周一执行这些措施。 实际上从1915年到2000年，世界各国共发起174次制裁，其中共同的规律是，大国制裁小国或者被制裁国采用民主体制时成效较好。因GDP水平较低的国家对外依存度更高，且面临制裁时损失占GDP总量也较大；另外，民主体制国家将受到来自国内的选票压力，而独裁政府往往借助制裁转移国内矛盾。从这些规律反观俄罗斯，不难发现制裁取得的效果可能不会很好。 对于俄罗斯而言，支持克里米亚公投的成本是被制裁，而收益则是保留黑海舰队的行动范围。无论是从军事还是政治抑或是国家的荣光来看，受益将远远弥补被制裁带来的成本。另外，从博弈的角度来看，一旦克里米亚脱离乌克兰成为既成事实，继续制裁俄罗斯将变得十分不理性，因为北约，尤其是欧盟与俄罗斯之间的经济关系是互相依赖的，而不是谁依附于谁的问题，制裁一个超级大国的结果从长远来讲一定是多败俱伤。 综上所述，金价若是因乌克兰事件而走强，这将是十分脆弱的，事件型的市场通常会在事件结束后回归原位。从长期来看，金价仍不能确定已经走出弱势泥潭，下跌的概率比较高，反弹可以参与，但是一定要控制风险。 中行广东省分行资金业务部 包呼和 |
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