India To "Look Into" Easing <b>Gold Price</b> Controls | Zero Hedge |
- India To "Look Into" Easing <b>Gold Price</b> Controls | Zero Hedge
- <b>Gold Price</b> Decisive Breakout, Precious Metals Major Uptrend :: The <b>...</b>
- Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b> Have Been Rising for Twelve Days Straight
- The <b>Gold Price</b> Closed Up $15.30 Today Closing at $1290.10
| India To "Look Into" Easing <b>Gold Price</b> Controls | Zero Hedge Posted: 17 Feb 2014 06:37 AM PST Two weeks ago, gold jumped to a then-2014 high, following reports out of India that the head of India's Congress Party, Sonia Gandhi was pushing the government to cut its duty on gold and other restrictions. Today, now that the upward move in gold has finally resumed, it appears that the nation with the world's most draconian gold capital controls, is finally starting to crack under pressure from the people, as well as a surge in gold smuggling via illegal channels to unprecedented levels. Reuters reports that India "will look into relaxing gold imports curbs, but won't let its current account deficit (CAD) balloon, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram said on Monday." More:
Of course, to borrow a line of thought from economists, while China may have overtaken India in official gold transfers the Indian demand for gold is still there, "pent up" and as vibrant as ever, and in fact should the government finally undo one or all of its anti-gold capital controls, all demand hell may break loose. Just how pervasive are said controls? Below is a partial list we put together last year. Should the government's resolve begin to truly crack, the "price discovery" result could be more violent than if the PBOC were to announce today what its true gold holdings currently are.
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| <b>Gold Price</b> Decisive Breakout, Precious Metals Major Uptrend :: The <b>...</b> Posted: 16 Feb 2014 06:29 PM PST By: Clive_Maund
On its 8-month chart we can see that gold broke out both from its downtrend and also from a Head-and-Shoulders bottom. It even managed to close above its 200-day moving average on Friday, although the fact that this average is still falling coupled with an overbought reading on its RSI indicator may lead to gold consolidating a little before it makes further gains. Overall though this is a very positive picture, with a clear breakout, and a now rising 50-day moving average that will lead to a bullish moving average cross if gold can hold its gains made so far or if it advances further. The 14-year log chart for gold makes it clear why gold has turned up here - it has found support and reversed exactly at its major long-term uptrend line. On this chart gold's decline from its 2011 highs looks like a normal correction, if rather long and deep. The most encouraging thing about this chart for bulls is that it shows gold's massive upside potential from here, for if gold should succeed in bettering its highs and continues towards the upper boundary of its major long-term uptrend, it will result in it rising to the $3000 - $4000, which is not unreasonable considering what is being done to the world's major currencies, and specifically to the dollar. The 20-year arithmetic chart also presents a fascinating picture as it shows gold reversing to the upside from its long-term parabolic uptrend, which most importantly has not failed to date, and which projects a gold moonshot, if it can stay above the parabola and break above earlier highs. Gold firming up kind of implies that the outlook for the dollar is not too bright, so let's look at the dollar chart now in an effort to figure out the outlook for this crucial determinant of the gold price. On its 3-year chart we can see that the outlook for the dollar index looks increasingly grim. The potential Ascending Triangle in the dollar failed last week, with it breaking below an important uptrend line better seen on short-term charts, and this was doubtless a factor playing an important part in gold and silver breaking out. Gold and silver appear to be "scenting blood" with respect to the dollar and may be anticipating the Distribution Dome shown on our chart pressing down on the dollar to the extent that it crashes the important support also shown, leading to its dropping back to the next important support level in the 73 - 74 area. This would be a big drop by the dollar that would have serious global ramifications. The latest COT charts for gold continue to show a bullish setup, with the Commercials still having a historically low short position, the Large Specs a low long position, and the Small Specs are out, having been destroyed by the long reaction from 2011 (the Large Specs are able to bounce back more easily, because it's usually other peoples' money that they are losing). Public Opinion on gold is starting to pick up from a low level, but it is still at a fairly low level, so gold has a long way to go before interest in it rises to levels that would cause concern. Those indefatigable contrarian indicators, the Rydex traders, still have a very low stake in the Precious Metals sector, which is of course very bullish. When their holdings reach high levels it's time to start looking for the exits, and we are clearly a long, long way from that situation. The latest long-term 14-year chart for the HUI index looks good, with it turning up and breaking above its 200-day moving average. This is a valuable chart because it shows us that PM stocks still have a huge amount of ground to make up to make good the losses of the past couple of years, and with gold and silver now embarking on what should prove to be significant uptrends, that is precisely what stocks look set to do, and it also follows that should gold and silver eventually go on to break out to new highs and continue upwards to the tops of their respective major uptrend channels, then stocks indices too should break out to new highs, which would be a development that could lead to spectacular gains. The 5-year chart for the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, code GDXJ, is most interesting. To the casual observer it looks like this is vulnerable to immediate reversal and decline, as it has just arrived at the top of its major downtrend channel, but the volume pattern is telling a very different story. Volume on the rally out of the December lows was HUGE, at record levels, and it was even greater on the 2nd upleg this month, and it has driven volume indicators sharply higher. This huge record upside volume is a clear sign that a trend change is underway, and thus that breakout from the downtrend is to be expected soon. We would therefore not expect to see anything more than a minor reaction back from this downtrend line - if that. The conclusion to all this is that a major Precious Metals sector uptrend began last week, and that this is the time to buy right across the sector, if you not already done so. This buying may include gold itself, gold ETFs, and a wide range of better gold stocks from large caps through mid-caps to juniors, but taking care to avoid the stocks of dodgy companies with huge debts and/or excessive number of shares in issue - common sense is what counts here. Speculators may want to leverage gains by means of Call options. We will continue to highlight the better ETFs and stocks on the site going forward. By Clive Maund For billing & subscription questions: subscriptions@clivemaund.com © 2013 Clive Maund - The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maunds opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. © 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. | ||||
| Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b> Have Been Rising for Twelve Days Straight Posted: 18 Feb 2014 05:09 PM PST Gold Price Close Today : 1324.70 Change : 5.70 or 0.43% Silver Price Close Today : 21.888 Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.522 Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01652 Platinum Price Close Today : 1422.90 Palladium Price Close Today : 736.95 S&P 500 : 1,840.76 Dow In GOLD$ : $251.71 Dow in GOLD oz : 12.177 Dow in SILVER oz : 736.95 Dow Industrial : 16,130.40 US Dollar Index : 80.060 Whooo! I hope y'all had a good time yesterday on Generic Presidents Day. Markets were closed so the prices you see below are compared to Friday's closes. Both silver and GOLD PRICES have reversed against stocks, and should continue to outperform them
Both the silver and gold price have been rising twelve days running leaving both overbought and begging for a correction. However, "overbought" can get a LOT MORE overbought before the rally's over. I fall back on rational rules. We buy breakouts, and both the silver and gold price have proven breakouts above their since-April downtrends. Gold has completed and pulled away from an upside down head and shoulders. Buy any correction. And if you were waiting to buy a breakout, buy now. Today I spent a long time gazing on charts of what the Federal Reserve hath done to the money supply since 2008, and I interviewed a friend who worked 20 years for several Federal Reserve banks as a lawyer and economist. "Renewed optimism" was not the outcome of my meditation. With its unlimited money creation the Fed has climbed up for a ride on a tiger. They have no safe way to dismount, and like an alcoholic, no more imagination than to keep drinking the same rotgut whiskey every day while expecting a different result. 'Twill end in unspeakable pain. Meanwhile the yankee government continues seizing control of the rest of the economy, what ears and tail the Fed doesn't already control. O'Bama's generous philanthropy raising the federal minimum wage (CBO says) will raise 900,000 people out of poverty but -- whoops-- put 500,000 people out of work. What's a communist to do? You have to hurt the poor to help the poor, I reckon. They're all the same, communists and socialists: they love all mankind but no man. That's why they can kill 60 million people to save mankind. But look on the bright side: once their stupidity, regulations, and greed (don't forget Wall Street, feeding off the corpse of the nation) has brought the economy to collapse, we'll get a chance to rebuild a just, stable, and prosperous one -- without them in charge! On to markets! Ya'll remember how the Dow in January signaled the big drop coming by falling when the other indices were rising? Well, it's repeating that act. Dow today lost 23.99 (0.15%) to 16,130.40 while other indices rose slightly. S&P500 added 2.13 (0.12%) to 1,840.76. Since 1997 stocks have been building a deadly Megaphone or broadening top pattern. The last highs took the Dow to the very top boundary. 'Tis possible it could make a marginally higher high, but look at the previous two touches (2000 and 2007) and see what you think. Looks about to reverse toward the earth's core. Meanwhile the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver continue to roll downhill. Dow in gold today lost 0.56% to close at 12.18 oz. It has now traversed about half the distance between its 20 DMA above and 200 DMA below. But the excitement today comes from the Dow in Silver. Whoa! Sank 15.28 oz (2.03%) to end at 736.62 oz, BELOW the 200 DMA (739.51). Those Nice Government Men better get busy earning those fat paychecks and manipulate the US Dollar Index back up into the sky. It fell again today 12 basis points (0.16%) to 80.06. One more day lower puts it in danger of crashing through 79.50 for a freefall. Ultimately, the dollar index will lose another 50% of its value. It makes no sense at all -- but in the age of government run markets, nothing makes sense anyway -- to see the euro rise today 0.49% to $1.3759. Yet who am I to argue? Who am I to protest that their sovereign debt is bigger than the US's, their banks sicker, their social cohesion weaker? It's nuts. Yen lost 0.48% to 97.70 cents/Y100. May be the Nipponese NGM are trying to send it lower. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. | ||||
| The <b>Gold Price</b> Closed Up $15.30 Today Closing at $1290.10 Posted: 11 Feb 2014 04:14 PM PST Gold Price Close Today : 1290.10 Change : 15.30 or 1.20% Silver Price Close Today : 20.143 Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.047 Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01561 Platinum Price Close Today : 1386.20 Palladium Price Close Today : 716.15 S&P 500 : 1,819.75 Dow In GOLD$ : $256.29 Dow in GOLD oz : 12.398 Dow in SILVER oz : 794.06 Dow Industrial : 15,994.77 US Dollar Index : 80.970 I was pretty proud of the GOLD PRICE today, rising $15.30 (1.2%) to $1,290.10 and the next resistance area. Time after time since last June this $1,290 level has played support/resistance. Since the gold price after much stubborn labor broke through the December close ($1,267.50) I expect it to churn and chew through this barrier, too. Might take more than one try, but as long as it doesn't fall back below $1,267.50 'twill be all right. The SILVER PRICE inched up only 4.4 cents (0.22%) to 2014.3 c. About all you can say is, At least it was up. Silver has not yet conquered 2050c. Yes, it is headed up, pointed the right direction, but has to wax peppier. Silver and GOLD PRICES have not looked more hopeful for the last year. I've been buying all the way up, and on this rally I haven't been continually beaten up. Yellow Janet spoke before congress today and said she would do just like Ben the Criminal before her. Stock markets liked that and rose. They want more of a steady stream of new money. The Dow leapt 192.98 (1.22%) to 15,994.77. Not to be outdone, the S&P500 bounded 19.91 (1.11%) to 1,819.75. Those jumps took both indices above their 20 day moving averages (15,956 and 1802.15), and the S&P500 above its 50 DMA (1,809.55). MACD flashed a BUY signal, which points toward higher prices still. Sorry, it's still not a train I want to ride. Rails have been dismantled up ahead, and there's a bridge out. Dow in gold barely rose, up 0.04% to 12.40 oz, nothing to disturb the sharp downtrend. Dow in Silver edged up 0.73% to 793.67 oz. Trend undisturbed. US dollar index was surprisingly unruffled by Yellen's "speech". It rose 2 basis points to 80.72, just enough to climb above its 50 DMA (80.70). Mercy, Nice Government Men! Is that the best you can do? Come on, y'all have a tape to paint here, global currency hegemony to keep up! For heaven's sake, this isn't the Soviet Union. Euro climbed to the uptrend line it fall through in January, above its 50 DMA (1.3649), looked around, and keeled over. Closed down 0.05% at $1.3638. I've tried and tried, but I just can't get excited about the euro. It's almost as much fun as sitting in a bus station. Yen gave up 0.37% to 97.46 cents/Y100. Still in an uptrend. Apparently the Japanese Nice Government Men are sleeping at the switch, too. The 10 year treasury note yield rose today 1.53% to 2.719%. This brings it back from a visit to its 200 day moving average below, and validates again the bottom of a flat trading range. Just a skootch more will turn it up positively. My beloved friend and editor of my At Home In Dogwood Mudhole volumes, Fiona McNeill, passed away today from cancer. She leaves a husband and six year old son and a horde of people who loved her. Please pray for her husband Ed and son Alex. "The Lord gave, the Lord hath taken away -- blessed be the name of the Lord." Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. |
Gold broke out decisively last week from its downtrend dating back to last August, a development that was confirmed by a dramatic high volume breakout by silver on Friday.
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