At $1,000 | Gold Silver Worlds

Posted: 31 Jan 2014 01:41 PM PST

This is an infographic which represents the view of the Credit Suisse commodities research team. It shows the bearish case for gold in 2014. While our view is that some of the elements are correct, in particular chart 1, 2 and 4, we believe that exploding Chinese demand (chart is missing on the infographic) and the brewing systemic risk (chart 3) do represent solid counter arguments.

From Credit Suisse:

As of late January, the price of gold had dipped to $1,270 an ounce, down from more than $1,650 an ounce a year ago. According to Credit Suisse's commodities research analysts, however, the rout may not be over. Despite the more than 20% drop, the analysts believe prices could drop to as low as $1,000 per ounce before the year is out.

There are a number of reasons for the bearish forecast. The main one is that the economic recoveries underway in the US and Europe have reduced investors' hankering for "the ultimate safe haven" investment. What's more, if continuing improvement in the US economy prompts investors to conclude that the Federal Reserve will raise benchmark rates sooner than they had originally expected, real rates are likely to start pushing higher in anticipation, making gold even less attractive when compared to interest-bearing assets.

Of course, there are risks to the bearish forecast, too. Stronger-than-expected demand in Asia and the Middle East could bolster gold prices. South Korea, for example, is launching a physical gold exchange this year, which could increase local demand. The yellow metal could also conceivably get a boost if central banks ramp up purchases from the relatively low levels we saw last year.

The <b>Gold Price</b> Closed Down 1.64 Percent at $1242.20

Posted: 30 Jan 2014 07:27 PM PST

Gold Price Close Today : 1,242.20
Change : -20.00 or -1.64%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.11
Change : -0.43 or -2.18%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.999
Change : 2.438 or 3.90%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.0154
Change : -0.0006 or -3.75%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,380.70
Change : -25.80 or -1.83%

Palladium Price Close Today : 706.65
Change : -4.30 or -0.60%

S&P 500 : 1,794.19
Change : 19.99 or 1.13%

Dow In GOLD$ : $263.74
Change : $ -2.46 or -0.92%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.76
Change : -0.12 or -0.92%

Dow in SILVER oz : 829.29
Change : 23.66 or 2.94%

Dow Industrial : 15,848.61
Change : 109.82 or 0.70%

US Dollar Index : 80.66
Change : 0.08 or 0.10%

Alas, today was not the day the GOLD PRICE burst the bonds of surly earth. Instead, it hit that downtrend line from the April 2013 high at $1,267.70 & fell back as low as $1,237.50. The GOLD PRICE shuttered the Comex $20 (1.64%) lighter at $1,242.20. Silver shucked 42.5 cents (2.18%) to 1911.1c. Today witnessed an 1897c low.

Gold's low took it to but not through its 50 DMA, and closed slightly below the uptrend line. This itself is not fatal, but the 12 day rate of changed went negative today, & the MACD might be rolling over downward.

No way to predict what will happen here. Gold has been very strong, so the 50 DMA which in past months has acted as a barrier to stopping it might now support it. Or we might see lower prices still. I am watching the $1,210 line as the shoulder line of what might be a upside-down head & shoulders. As long as that $1,210 line at the top of the shoulders remains intact, the pattern remains valid & presages an upside breakout.

The SILVER PRICE low at 1897c today shattered the little uptrend it had going, but stopped about where declines stopped through December at 1889c & 1910c. Remember the December intraday low came at 1872c, so that's silver's drop-dead line. MACD & RoC & RSI all point downward, I am sad to report.

Not sure why, but I really don't expect another waterfall out of silver & gold from here. Might be too big a natural born fool from Tennessee to see it coming.

Well, I reckon the question we all ought to ask ourselves is, How big a sucker are you? In a world where most everything is staged for propaganda purposes, financial & political & cultural, we also have to ask, Is it real, or Memorex?

Before I launch my boat upon the stormy sea of doped-up markets, I realized something spooky this morning as I was waking. On 22 & 23 January several stock market indices were making new all time highs. That was the day the Dow reiterated its non-confirmation by falling the second day in a row. On the 23rd its Niagara began.

Why is that spooky? Because the Dow topped at 11,722 on 22 January 2000, before the rest of the indices topped in March. And because there was a stock market high in 2000, again in 2007, and now, seven years later, in 2014, exactly two times seven years from the 2000 top.

Here's another, smaller spook. Silver & gold bottomed on 28 June 2013, then again on 31 December 2013, right nearly six months to the day or halfway around the year from each other.

But today the sun shone bright in Stockland again. Dow jumped up 109.82 (0.7%) to 15,848.61 & the S&P500, like a giant running its course, leapt 19.99 (1.13%) to 1,794.19.

The raw numbers sound good until you look at the charts, Dow managed to climb back to support it had broken through, but no more. S&P500 remains way below its 1,812.60 50 DMA, ready to drop through a long term uptrend line. Sure, both indices might catch here, but they need to rise above their 50 DMAs to do that (1,812.60 & 16,153.57).

Gold's tumble today floated the Dow in Gold up a little, 2.76% to 12.76 oz (G$263.77 gold dollars). As yet that amounts to nothing but a tiny countertrend move in a very long downtrend.

Dow in silver rose 3.72% to 828.64 oz, above its 20 and 50 DMAs (817.42 & 815.61). This is an iffier proposition, but needs to close above the 853.15 oz high on 31 December to disprove the downtrend.

US Dollar index, hideous spawn of central banking, rose today 53 basis points (0.66%) to 81.19. This takes it out of immediate danger of visiting the earth's magma core, but not much more. It is trying to turn up again to validate its sluggish uptrend. Did close above the 20 & 50 day moving averages, which at least turns momentum up.

Euro, hideous spawn of central banking & eurocratic bureaucratic tyranny, gapped down below all its moving averages, proving its downtrend once again. Plunged 0.79% to $1.3556. Hope the euro has packed its parachute.

Yen, hideous spawn of central banking & corporatism, fell back 0.49% to 97.21, but remains above its 20 & 50 DMAs & in an uptrend. Why, I can't imagine, since the Japanese Nice Government Men stand ready to stab anybody in the back who trusts a rising yen.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Credit Suisse Sees Gold Price At $1,000 | Gold Silver Worlds

Credit Suisse Sees <b>Gold Price</b> At $1,000 | Gold Silver Worlds

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