5 February 2014 - 黄金买盘近乎疯狂 实物金条购买力度大增

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• 5 February 2014 - 黄金买盘近乎疯狂 实物金条购买力度大增
• 5 February 2014 - Now Is the Time to Buy Gold
• 4 February 2014 - Ukraine on brink as turmoil hits currency
• 4 February 2014 - Hedge Funds Raising Gold Wagers Dump Copper: Commodities

5 February 2014 - 黄金买盘近乎疯狂 实物金条购买力度大增 Posted: 05 Feb 2014 02:37 AM PST From:http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2014/02/05115316615417.shtml 2013年黄金价格的暴跌，却促成了中国市场上近乎疯狂的买盘，抢购实物黄金的"中国大妈"一战成名，甚至成了全球各大财经版面的"头条"。而实物金条的购买上涨47%至366吨，市场购买力度大增。 中国人一向喜爱黄金，但往年黄金最大消费国是印度，2013年，中国大妈们改写了这个历史。据汤普森路透（GFMS）调查显示，印度2013年黄金消费上涨5%至987.2吨，但这个需求量受到了其对黄金进口限制的影响。2013年中国黄金需求达到1189.8吨，较前一年增长32%，较2003年更是翻了五倍。 由于大量的金饰、熊猫金币和金条的销售，中国取代印度成为了全球第一大黄金消费国。其中，实物金条的购买上涨47%至366吨，创下新纪录。同时，中国去年的金饰制造也上涨了约三分之一到724吨，首次超过印度。 而对应的，据相关的报道称，2013年欧洲和北美的投资者们对黄金丧失兴趣，黄金ETF被西方投资者们大量抛售，减少持有量约880吨。 而亚洲买家受到低金价激发对实物黄金的需求使得欧洲和其他国家金库中的黄金被带到瑞士，在那里被融成小金条再被运输到亚洲贩售。GFMS将此称为历史上最大价值的黄金流动。 GFMS的贵金属需求经理Andrew Leyland在接受媒体采访时曾经表示，因为黄金价格的大跌在中国等亚洲地区带来了这样现象级的购买。 如果没有中国的需求，金价或许还会下跌得更多。他认为，亚洲以外的市场对黄金的投资胃口仍然比较弱，也只有很少的分析师预计2014年的金价会回升。 Source:http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2014/02/05115316615417.shtml

5 February 2014 - Now Is the Time to Buy Gold Posted: 05 Feb 2014 02:32 AM PST From:http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2014/02/now-time-buy-gold.html Gold has been in a downturn for more than two years now, resulting in the lowest investor sentiment in many years. Hardcore goldbugs find no explanation in the big picture financial numbers of government deficits and money creation, which should be supportive to gold. I have an explanation for why gold has been down—and why that is about to reverse itself. I'm convinced that now is the best time to invest in gold again.    Gold Is the Alternative to Non-Convertible Paper Money If you've been a Casey reader for any length of time, you know why gold is a good long-term investment: central banks are expanding paper money to accommodate the deficits of profligate governments—but they can't print gold. Since the beginning of the credit crisis, the world's central banks have "invented" $10 trillion worth of new currencies. They are buying up government debt to drive interest rates down, to keep countries afloat. The best they can do is buy time, however, because creating even more debt does not solve a credit crisis. Asia Is Accumulating Gold for Good Reason Since 2010, China has been buying gold and not buying US Treasuries. China's plan seems to be to acquire a total of 6,000 tonnes of gold to put its holdings on a par with developed countries and to elevate the international appeal of the renminbi. In 2013, China imported over 1,000 tonnes of gold through Hong Kong alone, and it's likely that as much gold came through other sources. For example, last year the UK shipped 1,400 tonnes of gold to Swiss refiners to recast London bars into forms appropriate for the Asian market.    China mines around 430 tonnes of gold per year, so the combination could be 2,430 tonnes of gold snatched up by China in 2013, or 85% of world output. India was expected to import 900 tonnes of gold in 2013, but it may have fallen short because the Indian government has been taxing and restricting imports in a foolish attempt to support its weakening currency. Smugglers are having a field day with the hundred-dollar-per-ounce premiums. Other central banks around the world are estimated to have bought at least 300 tonnes last year, and investors are buying bullion, coins, and jewelry in record numbers. Where is all that gold coming from? COMEX and GLD ETF Inventories Are Down from the Demand The COMEX futures market warehouses dropped 4 million ounces (over 100 tonnes) in 2013. The COMEX uses two classes of inventories: the narrower is called "registered" and is available for delivery on the exchange. There are other inventories that are not available for trading but are called "eligible." I don't think it's as easy to get holders of eligible gold to allow for its conversion to registered to meet delivery as the name implies. Yes, that might occur, but only with a big jump in the price. Meanwhile, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the largest gold ETF, lost over 800 tonnes of gold to redemptions. At the same time, central banks have provided gold through leasing programs (but figures are not made public). Why Has Gold Fallen $700 Since 2011? In our distorted world of debt-ridden governments and demand from Asia, gold should continue rising. What's going on? The gold price quoted all day long comes from the futures exchanges. These exchanges provide leverage, so modest amounts can be used to make big profits. Big players can move markets—and the biggest player by far is JPMorgan (JPM). For the first 11 months of 2013, JPM and its customers delivered 60% of all gold to the COMEX futures market exchange; that, surely, is a dominant position that could affect the market. By supplying so much gold, they are able to keep the price lower than it would otherwise be. A key question is why a big bank would take positions that could drive gold lower. Answer: Banks gain by borrowing at zero rates. But the Federal Reserve can only continue its large quantitative easing programs that bring rates to zero if gold is not soaring, which would indicate weakness in the dollar and the need to tighten monetary policy. Voilà—we have a motive. Also, suppressing the price of gold supports the dollar as a reserve currency. The chart below shows the month-by-month number of contracts that were either provided to the exchange or taken from the exchange by JPM. For a single firm, the numbers are large, but the effect across all gold markets is greater because so many gold transactions follow the price set in the paper futures market. What jumps out from the chart above is the fact that while JPM had been selling gold into the futures market for most of the year, it made a major shift in December, absorbing 96% of all gold delivered. That is a radical shift and, I believe, an indicator that JPM's policy has shifted. In my opinion, their deliveries of gold were suppressing the price during 2013, but now their policy has shifted in a way that will support gold going forward. This leaves a vital question unanswered: Why? Has the motivation to suppress the price of gold gone away? Not likely, and we may never know the full truth of what is happening, but I suspect the main reason for the shift is that they have done their damage. The $740 drop from top to bottom, a 39% decline, has shaken confidence in gold as a financial "safe haven" among many investors, especially those new to precious metals. At the same time, continuing to lean on gold at this point could become very costly. JPM delivered $3 billion (about 2 million ounces of gold) into the market up to December in 2013, and may not have ready sources of gold to keep that up. It is dangerous to put on big short positions unless you have gold or some future gold deliveries as a hedge. By now, everyone knows of the shortages in the gold market; JPM has to be as aware of that as the rest of us. It just isn't safe for them to continue to lean on the market. Being aware, it looks like they are taking the bet that gold will rebound, so they could do well on the other side of the trade. Another confirmation of the shift by big banks comes from data provided by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that shows the net positions of the four biggest US banks in the futures market. There has been a dramatic change from being short the market to now being long. Crisis Brewing in the Gold Market Germany claims to hold 3,390.6 tonnes of gold, about half of which is held by foreign central banks. Over a year ago, they announced a plan to repatriate 674 tonnes of gold from France and the United States. The US said it would comply, but told the German government that it would have to wait seven years for all the gold to be delivered. The news out last week was that after a year, Germany had only obtained 37 tonnes of its gold—and only five of them were from the US. That is a trivial amount (only 160,000 ounces). So why can't Germany get its gold? Explanations of having to melt down existing gold and recast it just don't make sense. The most logical conclusion, and the one I've come to, is that the United States simply doesn't have the gold it says it has—neither Germany's nor its own. Of course, the US government isn't going to admit that there's a problem, but I say there is. More evidence: JPMorgan's COMEX warehouse contained 3.0 million ounces of gold in 2012, but that had dropped to 0.5 million ounces by mid-2013. Its registered inventories are a razor-thin 87,000 ounces. These kinds of swings are indicative of shortages and instability. Further, JPMorgan sold its gold vault in New York City—located next to the Federal Reserve's vault—to the Chinese. The banking giant also just announced the sale of its commodities trading business (although it may not have sold the precious metals part of that business). Perhaps they were concerned about new regulations of banks with deposit insurance from the government. In another relevant development, Deutsche Bank recently surprised the gold community by quitting its position on the committee that sets the London a.m. and p.m. fixings. This came a few weeks after a German regulatory body called BaFin started investigating how these prices were set. BaFin also gave an indication that the process appeared worse than the LIBOR fixing scandal, which resulted in billions in fines. Putting Inventories and Traders Together The futures market looks fragile to me. The basic problem is that there are many more transactions that could put a claim on gold than there is gold registered for delivery in the COMEX warehouses. The chart below gives a dramatic picture by simply dividing the open interest of all futures contracts by the registered inventories. The black line at the bottom shows the big jump in the ratio as the registered inventories declined. There are 107 times more open-interest positions than there is registered gold. The futures markets operate on the expectation that only a few big traders will demand delivery. JPMorgan has shown that it is in a position to demand almost all (96%) of the gold for delivery. They are big enough that they could cause a collapse of the market, if they were to force delivery of more than is available. They know better than to do so, though, and I would guess that they will just manage to try to gain back what gold they have been delivering over the last several years. That should support the price of gold. Gold Will Rise, and It's on Sale Now Now is the time to stake your claim in gold. In the long term, we know that paper money will become worthless; in the short term, the biggest seller has just shifted its actions to becoming a buyer. That makes this a good time to accumulate gold and gold mining stocks before a major shift upward in price. Source:http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2014/02/now-time-buy-gold.html

4 February 2014 - Ukraine on brink as turmoil hits currency Posted: 04 Feb 2014 04:43 PM PST From:http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/03/news/economy/ukraine-currency-politics/ Ukraine is on the brink of economic disaster as its currency plunges to a four-year low amid political turmoil and a tug-of-war between Russia and the European Union. The trouble began in earnest in November 2013 when Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych made a policy U-turn, announcing his government was suspending talks on a planned European Union trade deal and instead opting to form closer economic ties with Russia. Pro-EU demonstrations erupted in the former Soviet state and became increasingly violent as authorities cracked down on protesters. Thousands of anti-government demonstrators have packed Kiev's Independence Square since then, underscoring tensions in a country split between pro-European regions in the west and a more Russia-oriented east. Lilit Gevorgyan, a senior economist at IHS Global Insight, said the Ukrainian government was looking to extract the best deal out of either the EU or Russia, and chose Russia because it was offering a $15 billion support package and massive discounts on natural gas imports. But the political backlash put the deal in jeopardy. Russia now seems unwilling to hand over any more money after investing $3 billion into Ukrainian bonds in December, leading rating agencies to raise red flags about Ukraine's ability to repay its debts. Related: 5 things you need to know about the Ukraine protests The Ukrainian currency -- the hryvnia -- which is pegged to the value of the U.S. dollar, has plunged because the central bank is running out of foreign currency reserves. Gevorgyan says the currency has room to fall further, which would cause more damage to an economy that is already suffering. Ukraine managed growth of just 0.4% in 2013, according to the International Monetary Fund. "When you have an unstable currency, it will hit your banking system. It will hit the pockets of consumers. It will increase the cost of debt repayments and servicing. Investors will be very hesitant to enter Ukraine," Gevorgyan said, noting inflation could surge. "The bottom line is what we're seeing in Ukraine is the result of years of inaction and economic mismanagement from previous governments and the current government," she said. Now, faced with rising debt costs, dwindling reserves, a slumping currency and political paralysis, the country is at a painful crossroads. The EU is Ukraine's biggest international donor, giving €3.3 billion in grants since 1991. Catherine Ashton, the EU's top representative on foreign policy, said the EU was ready to give further support to help resolve the crisis provided Ukraine signs up for an IMF program of reforms. Related: Worst is yet to come for Fragile Five Like Ukraine, other emerging markets such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey, and South Africa are struggling with current account deficits, where they import more than they export. This situation leaves their economies vulnerable when currencies fluctuate. Recent central bank data shows Ukraine's foreign currency reserves have been declining over the past year to roughly $20 billion, enough to fund just two months' worth of imports, said Gevorgyan. Source:http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/03/news/economy/ukraine-currency-politics/

4 February 2014 - Hedge Funds Raising Gold Wagers Dump Copper: Commodities Posted: 04 Feb 2014 04:41 PM PST From:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-02/hedge-funds-raising-gold-wagers-dump-copper-commodities.html Hedge funds raised bullish gold wagers by the most since July and sold copper holdings as emerging-market turmoil boosted concern the global economy will slow and increased demand for precious metals as a haven. The net-long position in gold jumped 40 percent to 60,672 futures and options in the week ended Jan. 28, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Long wagers rose 5.5 percent to the highest since September, and short bets dropped 16 percent. Net-bullish copper holdings tumbled 62 percent as shorts gained by the most in 11 weeks. About $1.9 trillion was erased from the value of global equities last month as China's economy slowed and the Federal Reserve further cut stimulus on Jan. 29. South Africa's central bank increased interest rates, Turkey more than doubled them and Argentina's peso dropped 19 percent against the dollar in January, more than any other currency tracked by Bloomberg. The tumult drove gold to its first monthly gain since August and copper to the worst start to a year since 2010. "China rules the copper market, and it's obvious that there are no reasons for this market to move higher as supply is ample, and demand is sluggish," said Peter Jankovskis, who helps oversee $3.5 billion as co-chief investment officer of Lisle, Illinois-based OakBrook Investments LLC. "Gold, on the other hand, is seeing some buying given the turmoil in many countries, but what remains to be seen is if the rally can sustain in the face of tapering." Gold Rally Gold futures gained 3.1 percent last month to $1,239.80 an ounce, while copper dropped 5.9 percent on the Comex in New York. The Standard & Poor's GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities fell 1.6 percent. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities declined 4.1 percent. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge against 10 major trading partners, rose 1.2 percent. The Bloomberg Treasury Bond Index climbed 1.8 percent. Net wagers across 18 U.S.-traded commodities rose 6.5 percent to 782,818 contracts last week, the highest since October, the CFTC data showed. The U.S. Mint sold 91,500 ounces of gold coins last month, the most since April, joining counterparts from Australia to Europe in reporting higher demand. Prices rebounded more than 5 percent since reaching a 34-month low in June as physical buying rose. Bullion shipments to China from Hong Kong in 2013 more than doubled to a record 1,108.8 metric tons from a year earlier, according to customs data. Gold futures for April delivery rose 1.6 percent to $1,259.50 at 1:48 p.m. in New York. Copper Supplies Copper stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange jumped 18 percent last month, the first increase since October. Global production will outstrip use by 167,000 tons this year, following a deficit of 137,000 tons in 2013, Barclays Plc estimates. The London Metal Exchange Index of the six main metals traded on the bourse fell 3.7 percent last month, the worst start to a year since 2010. The economy in China, the world's biggest consumer of everything from copper to cotton to pork, will expand 7.4 percent this year, the slowest pace since 1990, a Bloomberg survey showed. Robust growth in the U.S. will help stem declines for industrial metals, and the rally in gold will be short-lived, according to James Paulsen, the Minneapolis-based chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, which oversees about $340 billion in assets. Fed Stimulus U.S. household purchases, which account for about 70 percent of the economy, climbed more than expected in December, Commerce Department figures showed Jan. 31. The Fed last week cut its monthly bond purchases to $65 billion from $75 billion, a second straight $10 billion cut. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is forecasting more declines for gold after it fell 28 percent last year. Prices will reach $1,050 in the next 12 months, the bank said in a Jan. 12 report. Bullion holdings through exchange-traded products fell 33 percent in the past year, erasing about $71 billion from the value of the funds. "What we are seeing is broadening of economic growth, and and China is not contracting -- the growth rate has slowed, but it's still growing," Paulsen said. "Industrial metals may slowly see an upturn once the turmoil in emerging markets calms. At that point, there will not be much upside for gold." Goldman View Banks from Goldman to Citigroup say raw materials are heading for more losses in 2014 as rising supplies and slowing demand compound slumps that led to bear markets last year in gold, copper and corn. The super cycle that led commodities to almost quadruple since 2001 is reversing, with prices set to drop 3 percent in 12 months, Jeffrey Currie, Goldman's head of commodities research, said in the Jan. 12 report. The asset class will be a "wallflower" compared with equities, Citigroup said in a Jan. 6 note. Bullish bets on crude oil climbed 13 percent to 260,282 contracts, the biggest gain since July, government data show. Prices dropped 0.9 percent in January, the fourth loss in five months. The U.S. is extracting the most oil since 1989 as producers tap shale-rock formations, cutting costs for refiners and driving fuel prices at the pump down 9.7 percent since March. A measure of speculative positions across 11 farm goods slid 0.3 percent last week, the CFTC data show. The S&P GSCI Agriculture Index of eight components dropped 1.3 percent in January, after a 22 percent decline in 2013 that was the biggest annual slump since 1981. Wheat Bears Investors became more bearish on wheat, boosting their net-short position, or bets on a decline, to 62,501 contracts. That compares with 56,571 a week earlier. Global production will reach 707 million tons in the season that ends in 2014, higher than a November forecast of 698 million tons, because of improving harvests from Canada to China, the London-based International Grains Council said Jan. 30. The net-short coffee position reached 5,454 contracts, compared with 2,755 a week earlier. Arabica-coffee prices surged 9.4 percent last week, entering a bull market on Jan. 31, as dry weather threatened production in Brazil, the world's top grower and exporter. "The time when people were buying anything has moved, and now people are taking a view on individual commodities," said Frances Hudson, a strategist at Standard Life in Edinburgh, which oversees $294 billion. "The super cycle has ended. The story for copper is neutral. The days of seeing high numbers from China may be ending. People saw gold was oversold last year, and money was moving to equities. There has been some reshuffle, but I don't think there has been a reversal of fortune for gold." Source:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-02/hedge-funds-raising-gold-wagers-dump-copper-commodities.html

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