New <b>Gold Price</b> Bull Market Cycle Has Started :: The Market Oracle <b>...</b> |
- New <b>Gold Price</b> Bull Market Cycle Has Started :: The Market Oracle <b>...</b>
- <b>Gold price</b> : What lies ahead? - <b>Chart</b> Of The Day 10 January 2014 <b>...</b>
- <b>Gold price</b> jumps in early Asian trade 13 January 2014 | ForexLive
- Second-Greatest Opportunity To Buy <b>Gold</b> | <b>Gold</b> Silver Worlds
| New <b>Gold Price</b> Bull Market Cycle Has Started :: The Market Oracle <b>...</b> Posted: 12 Jan 2014 01:17 PM PST By: Chris_Vermeulen
When the Fed launched its QE1 and QE2 programs, gold posted huge gains but with QE3, we only had a brief rally in late 2012, it's been all downhill for there. The price of gold over the last year highlights just how much Europe has become a powerful driver behind gold vs. the US which has historically been the main mover. When the European debt crisis started a few years ago, people fearing a financial meltdown in Europe put a lot of their money into gold as it was the save haven of choice. However, with financial and political risk in Europe subsiding, we have seen money leave gold and move into other markets, hence the big outflows from gold ETF's. Other factors that have dragged on gold over the last year include falling jewelry demand, the loss of its role as an inflation hedge with deflation becoming more of a concern in some areas, also tax increases on gold imports in India, and the supposedly improving economy in the US. All these contributed to the selling of gold. Gold and gold stocks crashed last year in the summer. They have since been going through a stage one base. This suggests that 2014 will mark the start of a new bull market for gold, gold mining stocks and commodities. The commodity sector as a hole should be your focus in the coming months if you want to be able to invest in something for longer than a few days or weeks and make a huge amount of money be sure to check out my gold newsletter. Gold Market Traders & Manipulators Provide Contrarian Bullish Outlook Gold market traders and manipulators like some of the commercial banks/brokerage firms have been verbally slamming gold, and it turns out many are not as negative as lead us to believe… Goldman Sachs we all know are the biggest hypocrites. While advising clients to sell gold in the second quarter of 2013, they bought a stunning 3.7 million shares of the GLD. And when Venezuela needed to raise cash and sell its gold, guess who jumped in to handle the transaction? Yup, GS! So while they tell everyone to sell gold, they are accumulating as much as they can without being obvious. There is a lot more reasons and fundamentals to be bullish on commodities and gold, but that is not the point of this technical based report. Weekly CRB Commodity Index – Bull Market Cycle About To Start Taking a quick look at the CB index which is a basket of commodities, it looks as though a breakout above its down trend line will trigger a new bull market in the commodity sector. While this has not yet happened it looks s though it may happen in the next few months. On stock market that recently broke out of a Stage 1 basing pattern (new bull market) is the Toronto Stock Exchange. This index is heavily weighted with commodity based stocks. I talk about this more in my new long-term algorithmic trading newsletter. In this report I want to show you some interesting charts that are pointing to a new gold bull market cycle which looks to be starting. The chart below of the gold miner's bullish percent index is often misread by many traders and trade off its information incorrectly. Many for example think this index is based on stocks trading above a moving average which is no correct. How a bullish percent index is calculated is based on Point & Figure buy and sell signals with each individual stock within the sector and in our case the gold minders ETF GDX. Gold prices peaked in 20111 at $1923 an ounce when the gold mining stocks index was above 80%. Why is this important? Because gold stocks typically lead the price of gold in both directions, tops and bottoms. As of today we have the reverse situation with the bullish percent index at 13% and showing bullish divergence from that of gold stocks. This is an early signal that the new gold bull market cycle is turning up and it should not be overlooked. Also we see the 5th and final Elliott wave pattern forming and we could once again whiteness another multi year rally in the price of gold. Gold Mining Bullish Percent Index – Weekly Chart Gold Miners ETF – Monthly Chart Gold stocks have not yet broken out to start a rally as you can see in the chart below. But the important thing to note is that the daily chart has formed a mini Stage 1 Basing patterns and could breakout this week to kick start a multi month/year rally.
If you have been following me for a while, you know I don't try to be a hero and pick tops or bottoms. We all know that strategy is a losing one over the long run. Since 2011 I have been a very dormant gold trader. Why? Because the price and technical indicators topped out and confirmed a massive consolidation or bear market was in motion. With gold, gold stocks and precious metals about to start a new bull market, it is time to get back to trading gold and gold stocks. You can get my daily gold, silver and gold stock analysis every morning with my gold newsletter and save 50% on your membership by joining today! Get My Gold & Gold Stock Trading Alerts And Save 50% Today! http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/signup.php Chris Vermeulen Please visit my website for more information. http://www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading site TheGoldAndOilGuy.com. There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method. For 7 years Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, oil, and silver in both bull and bear markets. Subscribers to his service depend on Chris' uniquely consistent investment opportunities that carry exceptionally low risk and high return. This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis. © 2005-2013 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.  | ||
| <b>Gold price</b> : What lies ahead? - <b>Chart</b> Of The Day 10 January 2014 <b>...</b> Posted: 09 Jan 2014 04:00 PM PST | Gold proved to be a trade of the last decade. However, the end of 2013 marked an end of a wonderful bull run. Gold prices dropped by 28% in 2013. With commodity prices moving in cycles, many would believe that this may be a beginning of a bear run. Before we answer that let us first understand the reason behind a decade long gold rally. Global recession led to unprecedented money printing across the world. This increased liquidity in the system. At the same time, investors lost faith in equities and currencies. Risk aversion also increased. Basically, easy money created out of the liquidity injection exercise found its way into gold. Increased risk averseness further boosted the gold rally. But once the US decided to taper its QE program, a sign that economic recovery is happening, gold prices crashed. And if the recovery gathers momentum there will be a further sell off in gold as investors will flock towards equities. However, while US may have decided to taper amidst signs of recovery, EU is not in a pink of health. This means central banks across Europe may continue with easy monetary policies. And this liquidity will find its way into a beaten down gold sooner or later. Thus, one may not see a free fall in gold prices. Further, gold also acts a safe haven and is an insurance agent during uncertain times. Its ability to provide inflation adjusted returns further makes it a desirable investment avenue. Hence, we believe investors should have some exposure to this yellow metal in their portfolio. Source: Kitco.com | |
| <b>Gold price</b> jumps in early Asian trade 13 January 2014 | ForexLive Posted: 12 Jan 2014 03:07 PM PST 22 hours ago | January 12th, 2014 23:07:34 GMT | 21 Comments "Gold price jumps in early Asian trade" and then gets beaten back down again. Up to $1257US and then off again …5-minute candlestick chart: Categories: All, Asia Pacific, Gold | Tags: Gold | Permalink © Copyright 2014 ForexLive™ | Advertise With Us | Login To Comment | Sitemap HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions. ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect's individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.  | ||
| Second-Greatest Opportunity To Buy <b>Gold</b> | <b>Gold</b> Silver Worlds Posted: 13 Jan 2014 09:34 AM PST This article contains excerpts from Nick Barisheff's latest presentation at the Annual Empire Club in Canada. Nick Barisheff is the President from Bullion Management Group (www.bmginc.ca). Last year the COMEX futures exchange distorted gold prices, and provided investors with the second-greatest opportunity to buy gold since 2002. Investors in the futures market incited precipitous drops triggered sell stops and margin calls, and the Western media jumped in to declare that the bull market in gold was over. In sharp contrast to the falling price of paper gold, the demand for physical gold soared. Many retail coin stores ran out of stock, and premiums rose as much as 20% for gold and 40% for silver. The lower gold price presents a problem for miners. Because average mine production costs exceed $1,200 per ounce, many high-cost producers will be forced to shut down, causing supply and demand pressure. Clearly, the physical price of gold cannot decline further for any length of time, and the correction is close to a bottom. In addition, the days of COMEX dominance in gold price setting are numbered, since monthly deliveries on the Shanghai Exchange already surpass mine supply. Expanding money supply and unsustainable debt levelThe main driver of the gold price is, and always has been, increasing money supply. "An increase in the money supply" is the very definition of inflation, as it devalues currency and destroys purchasing power. If increasing money supply led to prosperity, Zimbabwe would be the richest country in the world. This chart shows that gold and U.S. government debt have shared a lock-step relationship since 2001. Despite the divergence in 2013, over the longer term, gold and U.S. debt should return to the mean. Official U.S. public debt currently stands at $17.3 trillion. In order to bring the debt-to-gold relationship back into equilibrium, gold should be at $1,800 today. Since there is no political will to curtail debt increases or introduce austerity measures, I believe gold will surpass $1,800 and likely set new highs in 2014. Without the stability of gold backing, this has encouraged unbridled currency creation and reckless credit expansion at an exponentially increasing rate, taking fewer and fewer years to double. Interest rates are keyThe debt build up is not limited to the US but includes most western economies. The systemic risks that caused the financial meltdown in 2008 have gotten worse. The world's financial system was almost destroyed because of $1.2 trillion in mortgage derivatives. Today interest rate derivatives alone are 450 times higher at $561trillion or 7 times global GDP. What could possibly go wrong? Long-term Treasuries ended 2013 pushing 3 percent, and will likely rise if the Fed's tapering measures increase. In the U.S., a one percent rise in interest rates translates to an additional $170 billion in additional annual interest costs, and increases both the debt and the deficit. All other Western central banks face similar situations. Interest rates at 3% in Japan will consume all the country's tax revenues just to service interest payments. The bigger problem will be the decline in bond portfolios. In Europe, most banks hold significant amounts of sovereign debt as part of their capital. As interest rates increase, the value of their holdings will decrease incrementally. Due to high leverage ratios, some banks may need either bail-outs or bail-ins to shore up those capital ratios, and those same banks may find their interest rate derivatives have unexpected counterparty risks. The debilitating effect of the growing debt is clearly illustrated by the next chart. It shows that in the 1950s, for every dollar of debt increase, the economy grew by about $4. In 2013, for every dollar of debt increase, the economy has only grown by fifty cents. In real GDP over the last decade it has only grown by $0.08. You don't need to be a mathematician to understand that this trend is not a recovery, and is unsustainable over the long term. Dollar's hegemony cannot last foreverThe movement away from the U.S. dollar is intensifying. China has signed as many as 25 trade agreements that circumvent the U.S. dollar, and settle trade imbalances with the participants' own currencies. This will continue to place downward pressure on demand for U.S. dollars. If the dollar loses its reserve currency status, America's ability to print unlimited amounts of dollars without consequences will be over. This chart shows the lifespan of the six reserve currencies that preceded the U.S. dollar; the average is 94 years. Gold's lifespan as stable money is 3,000 years and counting. If we take the demise of the British pound as the world's reserve currency in 1920 as our starting point, 2014 will mark the 94th year of the U.S. dollar's lifespan. During this time it has lost 97% of its purchasing power. I firmly believe we are in the late stages of the U.S. dollar's reign as world reserve currency. Considering the strengthening fundamentals we witnessed for gold in 2013, despite its poor price performance, it appears that an opportunity similar to that of 1976 is a strong possibility. Gold rose 450% from 1971 to 1974. It then retreated 43% over the next 18 months. Many investors lost confidence and sold their holdings vowing never to invest in gold again. At the bottom of the correction, the New York Times declared unequivocally, "the end of the gold bull." However, during the next four years gold climbed 750%. A similar percentage increase from today's price would see gold trading above $10,000 an ounce. ConclusionWhile there may still be price declines, I feel today's situation is similar to that of the 1970s, and that we have the second-greatest opportunity to buy gold since 2002. Today many investors are tempted to sell their underperforming precious metal holdings and use the proceeds to purchase U.S. equities. But remember–the old Wall Street saying is "Buy low, sell high" NOT "Sell low, buy high." While no one knows with absolute certainty the exact timeframe for developing events, the most conservative route for portfolio protection is diversification with a 10% allocation to gold. Gold is the most negatively correlated asset to financial assets, and acts as portfolio insurance in a decline or a crisis. This means physical gold bullion to which you hold clear title, bullion stored in allocated storage or in your own vault. It is critical that your bullion holdings have no counterparty risks, and are not proxies or derivatives like gold certificates, futures contracts, or ETFs. Nick Barisheff is President and CEO of Bullion Management Group Inc., a bullion investment company that provides investors with a cost-effective, convenient way to purchase and store physical bullion. Widely recognized in North America as a bullion expert, Barisheff is an author, speaker and financial commentator on bullion and current market trends. He is interviewed monthly on Financial Sense Newshour, an investment radio program in USA. For more information on Bullion Management Group Inc. or BMG BullionFund, visit: www.bmginc.ca . | ||
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